Los datos de inflación en Argentina son tan buenos que el peronismo no se los puede creer

Summary

The video delves into Argentina's recent inflation data, showcasing a disinflationary trend under Javier Miley’s leadership. Inflation dropped from 161% in November 2023 to 39% by June 2025, a significant improvement, despite the country's historically high inflation rates. The script also contrasts current inflation figures with past manipulation of statistics under Peronism, highlighting the consistency between INDEC and provincial data, which dispels claims of statistical manipulation. The positive figures reflect a solid, structural deflation, with inflation for the first half of 2025 at only 15%, an encouraging sign for Argentina’s economic stability.

Takeaways

• 😀 Argentina's inflation has significantly decreased under Javier Milei's leadership, with the inflation rate dropping from 161% year-on-year in November 2023 to 39% in June 2025.
• 😀 Monthly inflation rates have shown a steady decline, with June 2025 at 1.6%, almost identical to May 2025's 1.5%, which is the lowest since mid-2017.
• 😀 Despite high inflation figures, the first half of 2025 has seen cumulative inflation of only 15%, which is considered an extraordinary result for Argentina.
• 😀 The May 2025 inflation figure was influenced by seasonal price fluctuations, while June's inflation performance is largely driven by a solid deflationary trend.
• 😀 Core inflation (excluding volatile items) for June 2025 was 1.7%, which was very close to the general inflation rate, signaling a solid and structural deflationary process in Argentina's economy.
• 😀 The Argentine government under Peronism has historically struggled with inflation, often resorting to price controls and manipulating inflation statistics to maintain control.
• 😀 A historical example of statistical manipulation is provided by Luis Delía, who acknowledges how inflation statistics were altered during Néstor Kirchner's presidency.
• 😀 The inflation figures under Javier Milei are not likely to have been manipulated, as they are consistent with alternative private and provincial measurements, which align closely with INDEC data.
• 😀 Provincial statistical institutes in Argentina, even in Peronist-governed areas, are showing inflation figures that align with the national figures provided by INDEC, unlike during the Peronist manipulation era.
• 😀 If the current disinflationary trend continues, Argentina could see an inflation rate of around 30% for 2025, a figure not seen since 2018, marking a positive shift for the country.

Q & A

What significant inflation data is mentioned for June 2025 in Argentina?

In June 2025, the consumer price index increased by 1.6%, which is almost identical to May’s 1.5%. This marks the best inflation rate since mid-2017.

How does Argentina's inflation rate in June 2025 compare to previous months?

The inflation rate in June 2025 is part of a consistent decline in Argentina's monthly inflation rate, which has been falling almost uninterruptedly since early 2024. It is a significant improvement compared to the 12.8% monthly inflation rate in November 2023.

What is the year-on-year inflation rate in Argentina as of June 2025?

The year-on-year inflation rate in June 2025 is 39%, which is a significant reduction from 161% in November 2023.

What is the cumulative inflation for the first half of 2025 in Argentina?

The cumulative inflation for the first half of 2025 is 15%, which is considerably lower than the monthly inflation rates seen in late 2023.

How does the inflation rate of May 2025 compare to June 2025?

The May 2025 inflation rate of 1.5% was heavily influenced by seasonal factors, with seasonally adjusted prices falling by 2.7%. In contrast, June 2025's inflation rate of 1.6% reflects a more consistent trend with fewer seasonal adjustments.

What does core inflation represent, and how did it behave in June 2025?

Core inflation represents the inflation rate after removing volatile components such as food and energy prices. In June 2025, core inflation was 1.7%, indicating a solid and structural deflationary trend.

Why is Argentina’s inflationary process considered structural in June 2025?

The deflationary trend in Argentina is considered structural because it is not driven by temporary factors like seasonal price fluctuations but by broader, long-term economic policies under Javier Miley's administration.

How does Peronism typically control inflation, and why does this contrast with the current inflation control measures?

Peronism has historically controlled inflation through methods such as threatening business owners not to raise prices or manipulating inflation statistics. In contrast, Javier Miley’s government has reduced inflation through macroeconomic stabilization policies, leading to a much lower inflation rate.

What role did Luis Delía's confession play in understanding Peronism’s inflation management tactics?

Luis Delía, a former official in Néstor Kirchner's government, confessed that inflation was manipulated by either threatening business owners or falsifying statistics, revealing how Peronism managed inflation through coercive and dishonest methods.

Why is it unlikely that the inflation statistics from INDEC are fabricated under Javier Miley’s government?

It is unlikely that the inflation statistics are fabricated because the director of INDEC, Marco Lavagna, was appointed during Alberto Fernández's government, a government close to Peronism, which reduces the suspicion of interference by Javier Miley's administration. Additionally, private and provincial inflation data is consistent with INDEC's figures.