"These Are The Exact Dates When Crypto Goes PARABOLIC " - Raoul Pal (UPDATE)
Summary
TLDRRaoul Pal, a macroeconomic expert, discusses the cyclical nature of crypto markets, emphasizing the upcoming periods of 'macro summer' and 'macro fall' as prime times for growth due to increasing global liquidity. He advises focusing on high-potential assets like Solana, predicting significant gains following the Bitcoin halving events. Pal highlights the importance of long-term holding despite market corrections, referencing historical returns of major cryptocurrencies. He also touches on broader economic trends, emphasizing the interconnectedness of all asset classes and the unparalleled investment opportunities in the crypto space.
Takeaways
- 📉 After the crypto 'harvest', there is typically a consolidation period where prices may fall by about 20%.
- 🌐 The increase in global liquidity, not just U.S. liquidity, is a key driver for crypto markets, especially during the summer months.
- 📈 Historically, the best periods for liquidity and crypto growth have been in the summer and fall, with 2020 being an outlier due to the pandemic.
- 🚀 The speaker is heavily invested in Solana (SOL), outside of small 'meme' investments, due to compelling cross-chart analysis with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
- 💡 The speaker advises simplicity in investment strategy, focusing on the asset with the highest potential return, which currently, for him, is Solana.
- 🔄 The post-Bitcoin harvest period does not lead to an instant supply shock but rather a choppy consolidation followed by a significant upward move.
- 📊 The speaker presents a chart from Exponential Age Asset Management, illustrating the potential for the crypto market cap to grow from $2.5 trillion to 100 trillion by 2032-2034.
- 📈 Crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have historically provided astronomical returns, even amidst significant corrections.
- 🍌 The 'banana zone' refers to a period of extreme market growth, where everything 'goes bananas', typically following a post-harvest consolidation.
- 🌍 The speaker emphasizes that in a correlated market, diversification is less effective, and it's better to focus on the best-performing assets, such as crypto and tech stocks.
- 🔮 The speaker predicts a significant wealth accumulation opportunity in the coming years, urging investors to not miss out on this 'gift' of crypto.
Q & A
What is the typical pattern after a crypto 'harvesting' according to the transcript?
-After a crypto 'harvesting,' there is usually a consolidation period where prices may fall by around 20%. This is followed by a period of gathering momentum before the market experiences a significant increase, particularly in the summer months.
What role does global liquidity play in the crypto market cycles mentioned in the script?
-Global liquidity is a key factor in crypto market cycles. It tends to increase during the summer months, driving up the market. The script mentions that 2020 was an exceptional year due to the pandemic, but other years like 2016 and 2012 also saw good periods for liquidity and crypto growth.
What are the best two periods of the cycle for crypto according to Raul Paul's insights?
-The best two periods of the cycle for crypto are macro summer and macro fall, both of which are expected to have parabolic upward moves, providing significant opportunities for growth.
What does Raul Paul suggest is the best entry point for crypto investments?
-Raul Paul suggests that the best entry point for crypto investments is at the bottom of the winter cycle, which is when he was buying Salina, Ethereum, and other crypto assets.
What is the current stance of Raul Paul on crypto assets, particularly Salina?
-Raul Paul is currently mostly invested in Salina, outside of small meme investments and other bits and pieces. He finds the Salina-Bitcoin and Salina-Ethereum cross-charts compelling and believes Salina will perform the best in the upcoming crypto cycles.
What does the transcript suggest about the post-election period in terms of market performance?
-The transcript suggests that the post-election period, particularly the later part of the season, is when the market, including tech and crypto, tends to experience significant growth, often referred to as 'going bananas.'
What is the 'banana zone' mentioned in the script, and what does it signify?
-The 'banana zone' is a term used to describe a period in the market cycle when prices are expected to skyrocket dramatically. It is called the 'banana zone' because the chart resembles a banana shape, and it signifies a time of significant market activity and growth.
What is the historical performance of NASDAQ, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salina according to the script?
-According to the script, NASDAQ has had a historical performance of 769% since 2011, Bitcoin has done 201% at 139% annualized, Ethereum has achieved 324% at 146% annualized, and Salina, with a shorter history, has seen 8,300% at 240% annualized.
What is the importance of understanding the macro seasons in the context of the script?
-Understanding the macro seasons is crucial as it provides invaluable guidance for investors to anticipate and prepare for periods of significant market growth or downturns, helping them to make informed decisions and maximize their investments.
What is Raul Paul's view on diversification in the context of a correlated market?
-Raul Paul believes that in a correlated market, diversification is effectively dead. He suggests that if everything is correlated, then the best strategy is to focus on the asset that has the highest potential for growth, which he identifies as crypto, specifically Bitcoin in the context of the NASDAQ.
What is the main takeaway from Raul Paul's insights on crypto cycles as mentioned in the script?
-The main takeaway is to not overcomplicate things. The market is moving into periods where parabolic moves are expected, and the primary job of an investor is to stay focused and not mess up the opportunity presented by these cycles.
Outlines
💹 Crypto Cycles and Liquidity Trends
This paragraph discusses the typical pattern observed after Bitcoin halving events, including an initial period of consolidation followed by significant upward movements in the summer and fall due to increased global liquidity. It mentions previous years like 2020, 2016, and 2012 as examples of this trend and highlights the importance of timing in maximizing profits in the crypto market. The speaker emphasizes investing in assets with the highest potential returns, specifically mentioning Solana over Bitcoin and Ethereum.
📈 Stellar Performance of Crypto Assets
The second paragraph presents statistical data on the performance of various crypto assets compared to the NASDAQ since 2011. It highlights the exceptional returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, despite significant corrections. The speaker stresses the importance of holding onto these assets through volatile periods to achieve long-term gains and refers to crypto as an 'alien asset class' with unparalleled investment potential.
📊 Diversification in Modern Investment Strategies
This paragraph discusses the speaker's viewpoint on diversification, arguing that it is no longer effective in the current market where all assets are correlated. The speaker presents a comparative analysis between the NASDAQ and Bitcoin, illustrating that traditional tech investments underperform compared to crypto. The focus is on the importance of recognizing and capitalizing on the best-performing asset classes, specifically within the tech and crypto sectors.
🌍 Navigating the Transition to a New Financial System
In the final paragraph, the speaker outlines the broader economic and social challenges faced by individuals in the current system. They emphasize the unique opportunity presented by crypto to overcome these challenges and achieve financial success. The speaker calls for a straightforward investment approach, maintaining focus on the anticipated parabolic moves in crypto, and encourages viewers to subscribe for ongoing updates and insights.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Consolidation Period
💡Global Liquidity
💡Cryptocurrency Cycles
💡Macroeconomic Seasons
💡Parabolic Move
💡Liquidity Injection
💡Asset Correlation
💡Diversification
💡Wealth Accumulation
💡Crypto Haring
💡Banana Zone
Highlights
After the harvest, there is typically a consolidation period where prices may fall by around 20% before starting to gather momentum.
The increase in global liquidity, not just U.S. liquidity, is a key driver during the summer months, impacting crypto markets significantly.
Crypto technology thrives during periods of increased liquidity, as seen in the good liquidity cycles of 2016 and 2012.
The best entry point for investments was identified as the bottom of the winter cycle, which is when the speaker increased their holdings in cryptocurrencies like Solana and Ethereum.
The speaker has shifted their portfolio to be almost entirely in Solana, outside of small meme investments, due to compelling cross-chart analysis with Bitcoin.
Contrary to popular belief, a Bitcoin harvest does not lead to an instant supply shock but rather a choppy consolidation period followed by a significant upward move.
Macroeconomic expert and Real Vision founder, Raoul Pal, predicts the best periods for investment are still to come, moving into macro summer and fall with expected parabolic upward moves.
The NASDAQ and tech sectors perform exceptionally well during the crypto summer, with the potential for even greater performance in the fall.
Raoul Pal emphasizes the importance of not overcomplicating investment strategies and advises to take advantage of the upcoming liquidity cycle.
The speaker discusses the potential for a massive accumulation of wealth in the crypto market by 2032-2034, which could be the largest in human history.
Crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have shown remarkable returns, even after significant corrections, making them an 'alien asset class'.
The speaker refers to the period after the harvest as the 'banana zone', where markets are expected to go parabolic, driven by increasing liquidity.
Raoul Pal suggests that diversification is dead in the context of a correlated market, where all assets move together, and the focus should be on the best-performing assets.
The importance of understanding macro seasons for investment guidance is highlighted, with the advice to stay focused and not to complicate investment strategies.
The speaker provides a final message on the importance of crypto as a gift in the current economic system, urging investors not to miss the opportunity.
The video concludes with a call to action for viewers to subscribe to the channel for updates on crypto and Bitcoin, and to join a daily crypto newsletter for expert predictions and analysis.
Transcripts
usually after the harving there's this
consolidation period down 20% chopping
around usual stuff and then it starts
Gathering Gathering Gathering and then
it goes crazy in summer what we find is
liquidity increases is global liquidity
not us liquidity Global
liquidity so in summer liquidity starts
increasing obviously 2020 because of the
pandemic it went bananas but 2016 2012
these were good periods for
liquidity and guess what crypto
technology they
roads then you get into fall fall is
often when the real fireworks happen
liquidity keeps pumping and then
eventually tops out into winter that's
when you get the corrections the crypto
down Cycles so we've got the best two
parts of the cycle to come obviously the
best entry was at the bottom of winter
that's when I was buying um salana
ethereum um all back then and then I've
obviously switched around so I'm pretty
much 100% salon right now outside of
small meme stuff and other bits and
pieces because salana the salana Bitcoin
cross chart salana eth cross chart looks
so compelling that I'm like if my job
here is to make as much money as
possible I'm just going to own the thing
that I think is going to go up the most
in every single crypto cycle after the
Bitcoin harving contrary to popular
belief we don't see an instant Supply
shock and prices Skyrocket upwards
instead what we get every single time is
a choppy period of consolidation in
which prices fall roughly 20% s then
crypto slowly starts building building
building before a huge crazy move
upwards that's the latest update out
from macroeconomic expert and real
Vision founder R Paul in R's latest
video update to investors he pointed out
the seasons of global liquidity and
showed that the best two periods are
still to come we are moving into macro
summer and macro fall both in which have
the parabolic move upwards we are
familiar with in crypto R's message
don't over complicate things we know
what's coming and your one job is to not
mess this up make sure to stick around
to the end of the video where R explains
why he believes there's at most 6 years
left for investors to make a
life-changing wealth before technology
makes everything too crazy before we
jump into the video only a small
percentage of my viewers are actually
subscribed if you enjoy Finance content
consider subscribing or liking the video
and turning on post notifications but
without further Ado let's jump in with r
Paul don't this up is the key
Mantra when you've got a liquidity cycle
ahead of you like this please take
advantage of it
the next part of that is the NASDAQ
maybe you're not crypto people but God
Tech does well in crypto summer we had
aish year last year long tech all year
astonishingly Good Year in Tech and it's
only going to get crazy and those who
I'll talk about tech a lot later but I'm
talking about um about where this is all
going um and why you've only got six
years to save yourselves uh before the
world gets a little crazy but in Tech it
is fall that is the big period the later
part of the season is when it goes
really bananas that's after the election
this is the same as the election cycle
the election years are in yellow then
the post elction years um that tends to
happen so liquidity is going to pump
into the system it's going to come from
different measures I'm sure there's
going to be questions about this uh in
the chat on realvision realvision decom
if you've not gone there I'm not going
to talk to you ever again if if you do
come across the realvision decom I'll
say hi and I'll be very grateful um and
it's free and I'm there to ask any
questions okay NASDAQ crypto because
you're all crypto junkies and the reason
you're crypto junkies is it makes more
money than anything else I get it um
that's the point that's the point of
investing is to make as much money as
possible um so yellow tends to be in the
summer tends to be
decent but you get there's been two
cycles where fall was
bananas total
bananas and then you had the last fall
in 2021 which was less so it's because
the liquidity came earlier in 2020 so we
don't know how it's going to play out
but this is how it should play
out
is here's a chart from exponential age
Asset Management which is my fund of
hedge funds so it's an asset management
firm that invests in the world's best
hedge funds to capture this trend of
going from $2 a half billion dollar
where the market cap is now to 10
trillion where 10 to 15 trillion where
it is this side CLE and then to 100
trillion where I think it goes by let's
say 2032 2034 something like that this
is going to be the biggest largest
fastest accumulation of wealth in all
human history and that's why I keep
saying don't this up that's why I
have a long-term time Horizon that's why
don't trade around this just let it do
its job so here's when we talk about
doing its job so we look at the the the
bottom the highest return section and
the lowest return section so out of the
three years crypto spring macra spring
summer and fall crypto is the best
performing asset in the world
bonan in the next year in Fall it's the
worst performing asset okay so that's
what you
get but when you look at the
accumulative returns NASDAQ since 2011
has done
769 that's amazing 177% a
year Well bitcoin's Done 20 i% at 139%
annualized ethereum
324 at 146% annualized and salana which
is a shorter history
8,300 at 23% annualized these are
Bonkers these are Bonkers returns
considering in the middle of those
you've had several down 80% Corrections
which is why even the big Corrections
how terrible they are are they're all
noise if you just hold on you're
generating between 140 and 200% a year I
mean salanas at 240% and it went down
94% in
2022 that's how good this asset is it's
an alien asset class and I know I ble up
a a lot about it and a lot of you still
not yet comfortable with it but I I
can't help you anymore that I'm trying
to help you to see what this is it's a
gift it's the greatest gift
we've ever been given so here's the
final thing this is the banana zone why
it's called the banana zone is because
the chart a looks like a banana and B
everything goes bananas and that comes
after the Haring after this
consolidation it does this will it be
identical well is 300 Grand the price
Target whatever I don't know but it will
go bananas unless something dramatic
changes and I do a enormous amount of
work on this in global macro investor
and you
is this chart up on the screen I'm not
sure it
is okay okay I think I've got a delay um
and so I do an enormous amount of work
there's literally thousands of pages of
research from Julian B and myself on
this so this is not just some flipping
comments we see liquidity Rising going
forwards there's there's sources of
liquidity everywhere from the FED
cutting rate from the treasury draining
the the general account to the FED
cutting QT to
um to potentially um the treasury
offering some liquidity Provisions to
China so they can manage the debt
deflation they starved of dollars
something with Japan who also needs
dollars because this this um you know
their currency has been collapsing there
is a lot of opportunities the Europeans
are going to cut rates the UK are going
to cut rates there's a lot of
opportunity for liquidity the FED May
let's say spin up a special purpose
vehicle to get rid of commercial real
estate from the banks who knows but the
cowbell is coming listen out for it it's
already started so the banana zone is
all cowbell and markets going
parabolic so hopefully that gives you
some understanding of what I think lies
ahead will it be perfect no does it chop
around here for another month or two
could do does it finish if I look at the
previous um Cycles
they two of them uh ended in the third
week of May the
consolidation and then went and the
other one was July 2020 but 2020 was
weird because we had the pandemic in the
middle kind of a scre cycle so I don't
know it's close they all like they're
making perfect wedge patterns all of
that everything else seems good what's
also great about macro spring uh sorry
yeah macro summer and
fall is that you can basically take any
asset it's going to go up so all
Commodities those of you who love
Commodities Copper's done well it'll go
up gold will go up oil eventually will
do um doesn't feel great right now oil
stocks will mining stocks will uh all
cyclical plays Will Tech stock
semiconductors they all do phenomenally
well crypto so you can be the
which is a nice way to be in markets
nobody wants to try and overthink stuff
and pretty much anything you buy will go
up but some things will go up more than
others that's that's how I look at the
world everything's everything's
correlated everything the everything
code cycle of the four-year debt refi
cycle means that everything gets
correlated a few assets lead crypto and
Tech others follow the business cycle
the business cycle bottoming so they all
bottom but they're all correlated
everything's correlated so for me I like
to keep everything really moronically
simple if everything correlated then
there is no such thing as
diversification in fact I made a big
presentation to big family family office
network of you know lots of very famous
US gigantically wealthy families and I
my presentation is diversification is
dead and I just said listen so all you
do if that's the case you just look at
all the charts and we got to hey the
best performing stock market in the
world is the NASDAQ isn't it amazing
technology you all get
technology and they're like yeah okay
we're investing in this we can see the
AI Revolution the robots and everything
else we we get it technology I'm like
yeah divide the NASDAQ chart by the by
Bitcoin and NASDAQ is down
99.93%
I'm like you're in the wrong
asset it's as simple as that it's a
super massive black hole so anyway
enough boring you on uh
crypto let's talk a bit about
actually let's just finish up on
crypto it is really important to me when
I set this whole thing for real
Vision to guide people through this
massive
transition this transition into a new
system where the old system is broken
we're forced to
speculate the system is rigged against
us asset prices keep going up wages
don't go up
everybody's polarized everybody hates
each other you throw in Immigration
global trade you throw in aging
populations you throw in AI robotics
right this is not easy for
anybody and everybody just feels like
it's out of their
control and I get it but you've been
given the gift crypto is the gift and
all you have to do is not this up
so there's Ral Paul's latest insights
into the crypto Cycles the importance of
understanding the macro Seasons provides
invaluable guidance for any investor and
should be undoubtedly studied remember
the key takeaway is not to over
complicate things we are moving into
periods where parabolic moves are
expected and your main job is to stay
focused and not mess it up if you
enjoyed this content please consider
subscribing to the channel liking the
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