Perekonomian Indonesia Di Tahun Politik 2024 | BTALK

Summary

The video script discusses the economic challenges Indonesia faces in 2024, including global economic slowdowns and high interest rates. Experts from the retail sector and research institutions share their insights on the projected economic growth rate of 4.9-5% for 2024, similar to the previous year. They highlight concerns over China's economic downturn affecting exports, high inflation, and supply chain disruptions. The conversation emphasizes the importance of contingency planning for businesses amidst unpredictable global events and the need for government intervention to address economic uncertainties.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The economic outlook for Indonesia in 2024 is overshadowed by global economic slowdowns and high interest rates.
• 📉 Economic projections have been revised downwards by institutions like the IMF, indicating a more challenging year ahead.
• 📈 Indonesia's projected economic growth rate for 2024 is between 4.9% to 5%, which is not significantly different from 2023.
• 💹 Concerns are raised about the impact of China's economic slowdown on Indonesia's exports, as China is a significant trading partner.
• 🛑 The United States' high interest rate policies to combat inflation could continue to affect global economic growth, impacting Indonesia as well.
• 💔 Retail businesses in Indonesia are facing challenges with consumer purchasing power, with consumers buying less due to economic uncertainties.
• 📊 Inflation in Indonesia is relatively well-controlled, with expectations of staying between 2.8% to 3% at the end of the year.
• 🚚 Supply chain issues, including food availability and price stability, are significant concerns for the retail sector in 2024.
• 🌾 Indonesia is looking for alternative sources for essential commodities like rice, garlic, and sugar due to export restrictions by other countries.
• 🏢 Business confidence is crucial for economic growth, and contingency plans are being advised for unpredictable economic factors in 2024.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the discussion in the transcript?

The main theme of the discussion is the economic challenges faced by Indonesia in the year 2024, including global economic slowdown, high interest rates, and the impact of these factors on the country's economic growth targets.

Who are the participants in the discussion?

The participants include Pak Ro Mande, the chairman of the Association of Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs, and Pak Akbar, the director of research at the Indonesian Retailers Association.

What is the projected economic growth rate for Indonesia in 2024 according to the discussion?

The projected economic growth rate for Indonesia in 2024 is between 4.9% and 5%, which is not significantly different from the growth rate in 2023.

What are the challenges mentioned for the year 2024?

The challenges mentioned include high interest rates, rising oil prices, global economic slowdown, a decrease in economic growth in trading partners like China, and the impact of these factors on Indonesia's exports.

How does the economic situation in China affect Indonesia's economy?

The economic slowdown in China could lead to a decrease in Indonesia's exports, as China is a significant trading partner and a large market for Indonesian goods.

What is the impact of the United States' economic policies on Indonesia?

The economic policies in the United States, particularly the high interest rates aimed at combating inflation, could slow down the U.S. economy, which in turn could affect Indonesia's economy due to trade relations.

What is the concern regarding the retail sector in Indonesia for the year 2024?

The concern is that consumers' purchasing power might decrease due to the potential increase in interest rates, leading to reduced consumer spending.

What are the supply chain issues discussed in the transcript?

The transcript mentions issues with the availability and price stability of certain commodities, such as chili, rice, garlic, and sugar, which have seen significant price increases and are causing complaints from consumers.

How does the discussion suggest businesses should prepare for the uncertainties of 2024?

Businesses are advised to prepare for unpredicted events by developing contingency plans and considering diversifying into sectors that are not currently being fully utilized by the retail association members.

What is the significance of the consumption sector to Indonesia's GDP?

The consumption sector, which includes household spending, is significant to Indonesia's GDP, accounting for around 51.8% of it.

What is the potential impact of the COVID-19 situation on the economy as discussed?

The potential impact includes reduced mobility and economic activity due to COVID-19, which could affect consumer behavior and the overall economy.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Economic Outlook for Indonesia in 2024

The script discusses the economic challenges faced by Indonesia in 2024, including global economic slowdown, high interest rates, and rising oil prices. The conversation involves experts such as the chairman of the Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs Association and the director of research at the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce. They discuss the projections for Indonesia's economy, which are not very optimistic compared to the previous year, with growth rates estimated to be between 4.9% and 5%. Concerns are raised about the impact of China's economic slowdown on Indonesia's exports and the potential for continued high interest rates in the United States affecting global economic growth. The dialogue also touches on domestic challenges such as inflation control and the need for businesses to prepare for unpredictable economic conditions.

05:02

📉 Impact of Global Economic Trends on Indonesia

This paragraph delves into the specific impacts of global economic trends on Indonesia's economy. It mentions the potential decline in exports due to China's economic weakness and the importance of maintaining export revenue. The discussion also covers 'falling inflation' and how the government's monetary and fiscal policies have helped to keep inflation rates around 2.86% to 2.9%, or not exceeding 3%. The challenges of supply chain disruptions, food availability, and price stability are highlighted, with examples of essential commodities like chili and rice whose prices have significantly increased. The script emphasizes the unpredictability of these factors and the need for businesses to have contingency plans to cope with such unpredicted economic challenges.

10:04

🗣️ Government's Response to Economic Challenges

The final paragraph focuses on the government's role in addressing economic challenges. It raises questions about the government's responsiveness to economic issues and whether it is providing timely solutions. The script implies a need for the government to act swiftly to prevent prolonged disputes and to manage geopolitical issues that could affect the economy. The conversation suggests that businesses are looking to the government for guidance and support in navigating the unpredictable economic landscape of 2024.

Keywords

💡Economic Growth

Economic growth refers to the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. It is a key indicator of a country's economic health. In the video, the discussion revolves around the challenges Indonesia faces in achieving high economic growth in the year 2024, such as global economic slowdowns and high interest rates.

💡Global Economic Slowdown

A global economic slowdown is a reduction in the pace of economic activity around the world. This can affect international trade and investment. The script mentions a global economic slowdown as one of the challenges that could impact Indonesia's economy, particularly in terms of exports.

💡High Interest Rates

High interest rates are a monetary policy tool used by central banks to control inflation by making borrowing more expensive. In the context of the video, high interest rates are discussed as a challenge for the economy, potentially leading to reduced borrowing and spending by businesses and consumers.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The video discusses how Indonesia's inflation is being managed, with a projection of staying around 2.86% to 2.9%, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability.

💡Export

Export refers to shipping goods or services out of a country to another country or area. The video highlights the importance of exports to Indonesia's economy and the potential negative impact if China's economy slows down, as Indonesia exports significantly to China.

💡Supply Chain

A supply chain is the network of businesses involved in the production and distribution of a product, from its creation to the end consumer. The script mentions supply chain issues, such as food availability and price stability, as challenges that businesses must contend with in 2024.

💡Consumption

Consumption refers to the use of goods and services by individuals and businesses. In the video, consumption is highlighted as a significant part of Indonesia's GDP, with the retail sector being directly affected by changes in consumer behavior and purchasing power.

💡Confidence

Confidence in this context refers to the level of optimism or trust in the future performance of the economy. The video discusses the importance of maintaining business confidence despite the unpredictability and challenges of the economic environment.

💡Geopolitics

Geopolitics is the study of how political dynamics are influenced by geographic factors. The script touches on geopolitical issues affecting trade, such as potential boycotts or disputes that can impact Indonesia's economy.

💡Mobility

Mobility in an economic context can refer to the ability of people to move and spend money, which affects sectors like retail and services. The video mentions mobility as a factor that could influence the consumption and, by extension, the economy in 2024.

💡Contingency Plan

A contingency plan is a strategy to prepare for possible future events or situations. Businesses are advised to have contingency plans to deal with unpredictable economic factors, as discussed in the video.

Highlights

Discussion on the Indonesian economy in 2024 amidst global economic slowdown and high interest rates.

Projections indicate a challenging year ahead with economic growth targets being revised downwards.

The IMF and other institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts.

Pak Akbar predicts Indonesia's economic growth to be between 4.9% to 5% in 2024, similar to 2023.

Concerns about the impact of China's economic slowdown on Indonesia's exports.

The United States' high interest rate policies could continue to affect global economic growth.

Indonesia's retail sector is closely monitoring consumer behavior and economic indicators.

Consumers are reportedly buying less due to economic uncertainty.

The need for businesses to prepare for unpredictable economic scenarios in 2024.

Inflation in Indonesia is expected to be controlled, with estimates between 2.8% and 3%.

The impact of high-interest rates on bank credit and consumer purchasing power.

Supply chain issues and food price stability are major concerns for businesses.

The retail sector is grappling with the unpredictability of supply and demand for essential commodities.

Geopolitical issues and their potential impact on trade and the economy.

The importance of government intervention to mitigate economic risks and uncertainties.

Businesses are advised to develop contingency plans to cope with unpredictable economic conditions.

The retail sector's outlook for 2024, focusing on consumer confidence and spending.

Transcripts

[Musik]

Halo selamat malam saudara Selamat tahun

baru bertemu lagi bersama saya mahis ser

Tarigan di bisnis talk perekonomian

Indonesia di tahun politik 2024

dibayangi berbagai tantangan mulai dari

perlambatan ekonomi global hingga suku

munga tinggi lalu Bagaimana langkah

mencapai target pertumbuhan ekonomi yang

tinggi maka dengan itu kita akan bahas

bersama narasumber yang telah bergabung

di studio ada Pak ro Mande ketua umum

Asosiasi Pengusaha retil Indonesia Halo

Pak selamat malam selamat tahun baru 20

Selamat tahun baru dengan harapan yang

baru saja semangat baru saya juga

menyapa ada direktur riset cor Indonesia

Pak akbarsamto malam Pak Akbar Selamat

malam Mbak Selamat malam pak Roy selamat

malam selamat tahun baru ya terima kasih

selamat tahun baru oke kita tahu tahun

ini bukan tahun yang mudah ya sejumlah

proyeksi mengatakan Nih tampaknya

tantangannya tidak lebih mudah

dibandingkan tahun lalu kalau kita lihat

untuk eh

apa proyeksi ekonomi juga diturunkan

oleh sejumlah lembaga IMF misalnya juga

turunkan pertumban ekonomi global begitu

Jadi saya mau nanya dulu ke Pak Akbar

kira-kira untuk Tan ekonomi 2024 ini Ke

mana arahnya Apakah memang benar

tantangannya sangat besar mulai dari apa

suku bunga yang tinggi begitu diperkirak

akan terus bertambah kemudian ee harga

minyak juga kita lihat naik begitu

silakan baik ee sebenarnya kalau dari

angkanya gitu ya dari angkanya itu

angkanya Enggak istimewa-istimewa banget

dalam artian bahwa kalau saya nih

memperkirakan dan teman-teman di Korea

Indonesia angkanya 4,9 sampai 5% untuk

tahun 2024 ya proyeki laju pertumbuhan

ekonominya yang itu kemungkinan ya

Enggak jauh beda dengan

2023 2023 ini kemudian ee ya sekitar

itulah gitu walaupun angkanya belum

keluar ka yang resmi data resminya tapi

kalau misalnya negara partner dagang

kita nih kayak Tiongkok juga harus Kita

waspadai karena kalau kita lihat secara

catatan mereka juga mengalami penurunan

pertumbuhan ekonomi Apakah itu tidak

perlu kita khhawatirkan karena mengingat

pasar tradisional kita belum begitu

berkembang yang ada ya pasar trad aja

tempat tujuan kita mengekspor betul jadi

ketika tadi saya mengatakan angkanya 4,9

sampai 5% itu dengan asumsi bahwa ee apa

semuanya berjalan dengan baik begitu ya

jadi memang ee dalam tahun 2024 ini ada

tantangan-tantangan salah satunya

tantangan yang terkait dengan Cina gitu

ya jadi di Cina sendiri juga masih

menghadapi persoalan salah satunya

adalah di sana ee konsentrasi pasar itu

juga masih masih belum sepenuhnya pulih

ya situasi di Cina jadi ee Kenapa kok

kita terkait dengan itu karena Ekspor

kita kecina itu lumayan besar jadi

ketika Cina situasinya enggak enggak

bagus gitu ya maka Ekspor kita juga

enggak bagus gitu He termasuk juga

Amerika Serikat Anda melihatnya

bagaimana kira-kira Karena kan mereka

bilang untuk apa tampaknya memang

sinyal-sinyal suku bunga tinggi juga

masih akan berlanjut ya betul betul

sekali Jadi kalau di Amerika Serikat

kasusnya adalah ee ee kebijakan The Fat

ya yang masih menahan tingkat suku bunga

mereka gitu ya untuk e terutama

mengatasi inflasi ya ya gitu walaupun

mereka sebenarnya juga sudah mulai

membaiklah potensi resesinya relatif

kecil gitu ya tetapi ee sekali lagi itu

belum benar-benar pulih sehingga

kemungkinan akan menahan laju

pertumbuhan ekonomi mereka dan itu akan

punya impact pada kita Oke well nanti

saya akan ee memperjelas lagi ke Pak

Akbar sekarang saya ke pak Roy di sektor

Ril kalau dari pelaku usaha sendiri

melihat ekonomi di 2024 Bagaimana apakah

misalnya kita mungkin ngukurnya lebih

enak langsung ke daya beli begitu ya Ee

Apakah melihat 2024 itu mas masih penuh

tantangan atau sama aja di 2023 juga

begitu Iya pasti tantangan adalah bagian

dinamika dari semua pelaku usaha kami di

sektor Ril yang langsung dihilir

berhubungan dengan konsumen kita

mengerti apa yang terjadi konsumen apa

yang menjadi keluhan apa yang menjadi

harapan termasuk yang tadi Mister

katakan mereka katakan sekarang kok

rasanya beli sesuatu daya beli kita

kurang Karena biasa beli 10 cuma dapat

Del dan seterusnya misalnya i jadi di

tahun 2024 ini kami di dalam e meeting

internal kami Peril seluruh Indonesia

anggota Aprindo seluruh kepulauan

wilayah kota provinsi kabupaten kita

sudah menyampaikan mis bahwa aware for

eh

unpredict oke ya jadi eh ada istilah

quote-nya itu predict for unpredicted

things jadi kita harus memprediksi yang

enggak bisa diprediksi artinya begini

kita tahu beberapa catatan misalnya

ekonomi going slower ya e at the global

dan itu pasti dampak tadi Pak Akbar

sudah katakan di China pasti melemah

sehingga Ekspor kita juga pasti e akan

menurun walaupun kita mencatat di 2022

hampir 300 bilan us Doll 286 US Dollar e

Ekspor kita tetapi ini pasti akan

terdampak sehingga pendapatan kita juga

berkurang kemudian kita tahu yang lain

misal nya ada istilah Falling inflation

tapi picking R inflasi kita memang

terjaga i ya kita syukur ya apresiasi

dua kebijakan populis pemerintah dalam

monetor dan fiskal itu bisa mengerem

sehingga inflasi kita ya ini kita bicara

ee apa di akhir tahun antara 2,86 2,9

atau enggak lebih dari 3% ya jadi ee

memang inflasinya terjaga karena ada B

rate-nya yang dijaga juga sudah 6% he

tetapi ini dalam satu semester atau

dampak ke depannya itu akan mempengaruhi

rat-nya Rat eh kredit di perbankan sudah

pasti dan itu akan berdampak kepada

kemampuan konsumen untuk harus membayar

lebih daripada yang sebelumnya jadi

otomatis mereka akan mengurangi ee

belinya daya belinya pengurangan daya

beli kemudian yang kita tahu adalah yang

eh ketiga adalah kita belum lepas yang

namanya supply chain

cases food avability dan Price stability

ya kita tahu di akhir tahun kemarin 2023

kita mencatat masih ada 4 l komoditi tuh

yang tinggi sekali naiknya ya ya kita

bicara ini kan Terekam bisa dilihat di

mana-mana ee cabai misalnya ya itu yang

makanan utama masyarakat kita kemudian

beras juga termasuk ya karena ada

beberapa negara kita mau impimport diban

oleh negara itu karena mereka perlu juga

untuk negaranya sendiri oke sehingga

kita mesti cari alternatif ke India

misalnya untuk bisa dapat impor beras

kemudian bawang putih ya kemudian gula

Nah ada 4 l komoditi bapokting di sektor

real di mana kami berhas setiap hari

berjualan untuk produk-produk itu itu

terjadi keluhan dari masyarakat Kenapa

naik Kenapa berubah ya kami katakan ini

bukannya retil yang naikan tapi suplnya

yang membuat naik karena kita belinya

sudah naik ya Dari dari hulu sektor

hulunya Nah jadi beberapa hal yang tadi

makanya kita sebut

pred

unpreded kita harus memprediksi di 2024

ini hal-hal yang tidak bisa diprediksi

ya artinya bukan hanya sekedar kita

melihat ekonomi dari sisi relevansi dan

adiptif saja tapi bagaimana

kontingensinya nah ini yang seringkiali

terlewat ya kontingensi terhadap supply

chain misalnya terhadap masalah

foodability dan Price stability Nah kita

tahu semua bahwa ya kita masuk di bulan

e Januari ini tentu kan semua masih

mengacu kepada pesta yang saat ini

sedang berjalan yang kita sebut

demokrasi partti pesta demokrasi nah

semua pasti akan fokus ke sana sampai

kepada adanya e hasil election dan

seterusnya oke nah jadi ini

tahapan-tahapan yang harus kita prediksi

terhadap hal-hal yang tidak bisa kita

prediksi memprediksi sesuatu yang tidak

bisa diprediksi Apakah kalau saya

menyimpulkan Bolehkah kita katakan bahwa

pelaku usaha enggak confiden

saya katakan confidence itu adalah

semangat dari pelaku usaha karena kalau

pelaku usaha tidak confidence sudah

bukan pelaku usaha tapi pekerja sosial

kita harus tetap confidence tetapi kita

sekarang meng mengingatkan kepada

anggota untuk buat juga kontingency plan

he ya ada bisnis-bisnis yang coba

dikembangkan juga ya Selain sektor yang

memang digeluti atau yang sekarang

dijalankan dimaksimalkan oleh seluruh

anggota Ril modern Aprindo He nah

kemudian kita berhadapan terakhir satu

lagi di 2024 ini yang namanya sektor

Hilir atau consumption rumah tangga

pembentuk GDP kita yang hampir sekitar

E 52%

51,8% ini sangat tergantung dengan

mobility Nah kita tahu bahwa akhir 2000

Desember 23 kemarin desember ada covid

lagi ya Harus jaga-jaga ya walaupun

Sekarang pasti enggak sehebat lalu

karena kita sudah vaksin semua ya

eovid covidnya

bagusagusiisah G tapi itu sesuatu yang

gak kita prediksi Oke boikot karena ada

geopolitik ya yang substansinya kita

sudah Ingatkan pemerintah harus cepat

turun tangan supaya polemiknya enggak

berkepanjangan ya Banyak hal yang tidak

diprediksi nah itu yang saya sebut tadi

predic

unpredicted oke baik tapi pertanyaan

berikutnya adalah ketika Pak mengatakan

memprediksi yang tidak terprediksi apa

kah di sini

ee bukan pemerintah pengusaha melihat

pemerintah tampaknya kurang cepat e

memberikan solusi Jangan dijawab dulu

saudara tetap bersama kami di

[Musik]

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