La Fin du Détroit de Malacca ?

Summary

Ce script vidéo explore le détroit de Malacca, un passage maritime crucial reliant l'Asie à l'Inde, au Moyen-Orient et à l'Europe, par où transite près de 40% du commerce maritime mondial. Confronté à des tensions géopolitiques, des actes de piraterie et un risque de saturation, la région pourrait voir son importance perturbée. En réponse, la Thaïlande propose un projet d'infrastructure ambitieux : un pont terrestre reliant deux ports pour réduire les délais de transport. Ce projet rivalise avec des initiatives similaires en Malaisie, financées par la Chine, dans un contexte de concurrence stratégique mondiale.

Takeaways

• 🚢 Le détroit de Malacca est un passage essentiel pour le commerce maritime mondial, avec 40 % des échanges mondiaux transitant par là.
• 🌏 Situé entre l'Indonésie, la Malaisie et Singapour, le détroit relie l'Asie à l'Inde, au Moyen-Orient et à l'Europe.
• ⚠️ Des tensions géopolitiques et des actes de piraterie menacent la sécurité et le commerce dans cette région stratégique.
• 🇹🇭 La Thaïlande envisage de construire un projet colossal de pont terrestre pour concurrencer le détroit de Malacca, économisant 6 à 9 jours de transport.
• 💰 Le projet thaïlandais de pont terrestre coûtera 35,6 milliards de dollars et pourrait créer 100 000 emplois, mais ne sera pas achevé avant 2039.
• 🚨 La piraterie est un problème croissant dans le détroit, avec 25 attaques armées enregistrées au début de 2023.
• 🇨🇳 La Chine, très dépendante du détroit de Malacca pour son commerce et son approvisionnement énergétique, voit dans le projet thaïlandais une solution potentielle à son « dilemme de Malacca ».
• 🚄 La Malaisie met en place un projet concurrent, l'East Coast Rail Link, pour relier deux ports de la péninsule malaisienne comme alternative au détroit.
• 🛠️ Le projet malaisien est déjà en cours de réalisation, avec plus de 60 % des travaux terminés, visant une finalisation d'ici 2027.
• 📈 La Chine joue un rôle clé dans les financements des projets d'infrastructures en Thaïlande et en Malaisie dans le cadre de sa Nouvelle Route de la Soie.

Q & A

Quelle est l'importance stratégique du détroit de Malacca dans le commerce maritime mondial?

Le détroit de Malacca est un passage stratégique essentiel pour le commerce maritime mondial, avec près de 40 % du commerce mondial qui transite par cette voie. Il connecte l'Asie à l'Inde, au Moyen-Orient et à l'Europe, réduisant considérablement le temps de navigation pour les bateaux.

Quels pays bordent le détroit de Malacca?

Le détroit de Malacca est bordé par trois pays : l'Indonésie, la Malaisie et Singapour.

Pourquoi le détroit de Malacca est-il souvent la cible d'actes de piraterie?

Le détroit de Malacca est une voie maritime très fréquentée et stratégiquement importante, ce qui en fait une cible de choix pour les pirates. Les attaques visent souvent à rançonner ou détourner des bateaux pour obtenir des biens ou des fonds.

Comment la Thaïlande compte-t-elle concurrencer le détroit de Malacca?

La Thaïlande a l'intention de créer un projet de 'land bridge' reliant deux ports via une route, une ligne de chemin de fer et un pipeline, permettant ainsi de contourner le détroit de Malacca et de réduire le temps de transit pour les navires.

Quels sont les obstacles potentiels à la réalisation du canal Kra en Thaïlande?

Le projet de canal Kra a été retardé en raison de son coût prohibitif, de la complexité logistique, et des risques politiques internes, notamment la possibilité d'alimenter des mouvements séparatistes dans la région sud de la Thaïlande.

Quelle est l'implication de la Chine dans les projets de contournement du détroit de Malacca?

La Chine est très intéressée par les alternatives au détroit de Malacca en raison de sa dépendance vis-à-vis de cette route pour son commerce et ses approvisionnements en énergie. Elle investit dans des projets comme le 'land bridge' thaïlandais et le 'East Coast Rail Link' malaisien pour sécuriser ses intérêts.

Quelles sont les principales menaces pesant sur le détroit de Malacca aujourd'hui?

Les principales menaces pour le détroit de Malacca sont la saturation du trafic maritime, les tensions géopolitiques, et la recrudescence de la piraterie dans la région.

En quoi le projet de 'land bridge' thaïlandais diffère-t-il des autres routes maritimes comme le canal de Panama ou le canal de Suez?

Contrairement aux canaux de Panama ou de Suez, qui réduisent considérablement le temps de navigation, le projet thaïlandais nécessiterait une logistique plus complexe avec un transfert de marchandises entre plusieurs moyens de transport, réduisant moins le temps de trajet.

Quel est l'état actuel du projet malaisien 'East Coast Rail Link'?

Le projet 'East Coast Rail Link' en Malaisie est en cours de construction, avec plus de 60 % des travaux déjà réalisés. Il devrait être achevé d'ici le 31 décembre 2027.

Quels sont les avantages potentiels du 'land bridge' thaïlandais pour l'économie locale?

Le 'land bridge' thaïlandais devrait permettre de créer environ 100 000 emplois et de dynamiser l'économie régionale, notamment en augmentant la capacité des ports à traiter jusqu'à 20 millions de conteneurs par an.

Outlines

00:00

🚢 L'importance stratégique du détroit de Malacca

Le détroit de Malacca est l'une des principales artères du commerce maritime mondial, reliant l'Asie à l'Inde, au Moyen-Orient et à l'Europe. Près de 40 % du commerce maritime mondial y transite, ce qui en fait une zone vitale mais saturée, sujette à des tensions géopolitiques et à des actes de piraterie. La Malaisie, l'Indonésie et Singapour gèrent ce passage stratégique. La ville de Malacca, située en Malaisie, est un centre historique et touristique, mais elle est surtout célèbre pour avoir donné son nom à ce détroit. Le détroit joue un rôle clé dans le transport mondial de pétrole, avec 16 millions de barils transitant chaque jour.

05:02

🌉 Le méga projet thaïlandais de la Route 9A

La Thaïlande envisage depuis des siècles de construire un canal à travers l'isthme de Kra pour concurrencer le détroit de Malacca. Cependant, pour des raisons historiques, économiques et sécuritaires, ce projet n'a jamais vu le jour. Le projet actuel, baptisé Route 9A, propose une liaison terrestre entre les ports de Chumphon et Ranong via une route, une voie ferrée et un pipeline. Ce projet de 35,6 milliards de dollars, soutenu par le gouvernement thaïlandais, vise à créer des emplois et dynamiser l'économie régionale, tout en réduisant le temps de transport de 6 à 9 jours. La Chine, qui dépend lourdement du détroit de Malacca pour son commerce et son approvisionnement en énergie, surveille de près cette initiative.

10:02

🚄 Le projet concurrent malaisien : East Coast Rail Link

La Malaisie développe son propre projet pour offrir une alternative au détroit de Malacca : le East Coast Rail Link, une ligne ferroviaire reliant la côte est à la côte ouest de la péninsule. Ce projet de 13 milliards de dollars, largement financé par la Chine, pourrait concurrencer les ambitions thaïlandaises, bien que le gain de temps soit moindre. Déjà en construction depuis 2017, la ligne ferroviaire est prévue pour être achevée d'ici 2027. Ce projet s'inscrit dans la volonté chinoise de développer des infrastructures dans le cadre de sa Nouvelle Route de la Soie, visant à améliorer ses connexions commerciales mondiales.

Keywords

💡Détroit de Malacca

Le détroit de Malacca est un passage maritime stratégique situé entre la Malaisie, l'Indonésie et Singapour, reliant l'océan Pacifique à l'océan Indien. Il est décrit dans la vidéo comme une artère vitale du commerce maritime mondial, avec près de 40 % du trafic maritime qui y transite. Ce lieu est également au cœur de tensions géopolitiques et de risques de piraterie.

💡Pont terrestre de Thaïlande

Le projet de pont terrestre en Thaïlande vise à créer une route alternative au détroit de Malacca en connectant deux ports via des infrastructures terrestres. Ce projet, soutenu par le gouvernement thaïlandais, cherche à réduire le temps de transport maritime, en offrant une nouvelle voie pour le commerce mondial. Le projet pourrait avoir un impact économique majeur pour la région.

💡Piraterie

La piraterie dans le détroit de Malacca est un problème récurrent, avec des actes de piratage qui visent les navires passant par cette route stratégique. La vidéo mentionne une recrudescence de ces attaques en 2023, ce qui inquiète les armateurs et pourrait entraîner des déviations coûteuses des routes maritimes.

💡Canal du Kra

Le canal du Kra est un projet historique en Thaïlande qui visait à creuser un canal à travers l'isthme de Kra pour offrir une alternative au détroit de Malacca. Bien que plusieurs plans aient été évoqués depuis le 17e siècle, le projet a été abandonné en raison de coûts trop élevés et de préoccupations politiques internes.

💡Nouvelle route de la soie

La nouvelle route de la soie est une initiative chinoise lancée en 2013 pour développer des infrastructures de transport à l'échelle mondiale, notamment en Asie et en Europe. Ce projet vise à améliorer les connexions commerciales de la Chine. La vidéo mentionne que la Chine investit dans des projets comme le pont terrestre de Thaïlande et le chemin de fer de la côte Est de la Malaisie dans le cadre de cette stratégie.

💡Hu Jintao et le dilemme de Malacca

Le 'dilemme de Malacca' fait référence aux préoccupations de la Chine concernant sa dépendance vis-à-vis du détroit de Malacca pour ses approvisionnements en énergie et son commerce international. En 2003, l'ancien président chinois Hu Jintao avait exprimé ses inquiétudes sur la vulnérabilité de la Chine en cas de conflit ou de blocage de cette route maritime essentielle.

💡MyHeritage

MyHeritage est le sponsor de la vidéo, présenté comme un site de généalogie qui permet de créer des arbres généalogiques et de découvrir ses ancêtres grâce à une immense base de données. Le narrateur partage un exemple personnel où il a découvert des informations sur l'arrivée de son arrière-grand-père à New York en 1927 grâce à ce site.

💡Port de Kuantan

Le port de Kuantan, situé sur la côte est de la Malaisie, fait partie d'un projet ferroviaire de grande envergure qui vise à relier ce port au port de Klang, sur la côte ouest. Ce projet pourrait concurrencer le pont terrestre thaïlandais en offrant une alternative au détroit de Malacca pour les échanges commerciaux.

💡Stratégie géopolitique de la Chine

La Chine joue un rôle majeur dans les projets d'infrastructures en Asie du Sud-Est, notamment via des investissements dans des initiatives telles que le pont terrestre thaïlandais et la ligne ferroviaire en Malaisie. Ces actions s'inscrivent dans sa stratégie globale pour sécuriser ses routes commerciales et renforcer sa position géopolitique face à des concurrents comme les États-Unis.

💡Trafic maritime

Le trafic maritime mondial dans le détroit de Malacca est en constante augmentation, avec plus de 86 000 navires qui y transitent chaque année. La vidéo prévoit une hausse significative de ce trafic, atteignant potentiellement 126 000 navires dans les dix prochaines années, soulignant l'importance du détroit pour le commerce mondial.

Highlights

The Strait of Malacca is one of the main arteries of global maritime trade, with a ship passing every eight minutes.

Nearly 40% of global maritime trade flows through the Strait of Malacca, but the route is nearing saturation.

Thailand's colossal land bridge megaproject aims to provide an alternative route to the Strait of Malacca and attract maritime trade.

The Strait of Malacca connects the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, avoiding the Indonesian archipelago and saving several days of navigation.

16 million barrels of oil, 15% of the world's daily consumption, pass through the Strait of Malacca each day.

Piracy remains a significant threat in the Strait of Malacca, with 25 attacks recorded in the first three months of 2023 alone.

Thailand had previously proposed the Kra Canal, but due to economic and political challenges, the project was shelved in 2020.

The Thai government now focuses on the land bridge project, estimated to cost $35.6 billion and expected to create 100,000 jobs.

Construction on Thailand’s land bridge project is scheduled to start in 2025 and will take around eight years.

China is highly dependent on the Strait of Malacca for its oil imports, with 85% of its supply expected to pass through the strait by 2035.

The Malacca dilemma is a concern for China due to potential blockades during conflicts, heightening the importance of alternative routes.

Malaysia is competing with Thailand with its East Coast Rail Link, which offers another potential shortcut to bypass the Strait of Malacca.

China is heavily investing in Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link project, continuing its New Silk Road strategy to connect its trade routes globally.

The Malaysian rail project has already completed 60% of its construction and aims for completion by December 2027.

The rapid increase in traffic in the Strait of Malacca could see the number of ships rise to 126,000 per year in the next decade.

Transcripts

It is an incessant ballet of container ships that takes place in these waters.

A ship every eight minutes passes through what is surely

the main artery of global maritime trade.

We are not near the Panama Canal or in Egypt, near the Suez Canal,

but at the Strait of Malacca, in Southeast Asia.

Bordered by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore,

the strait is an essential crossing point for Asia, connecting

it to India, the Middle East and Europe.

Today, nearly 40% of

global maritime trade passes through this route, which is on the verge of saturation.

A situation that could soon radically change.

Between geopolitical conflicts and acts of piracy,

the region is currently experiencing tensions which could indeed

disrupt the course of international trade, especially a neighboring country,

Thailand, is in the process of setting up a colossal land bridge megaproject in order to

gain time to the ships and thus pocket the financial windfall that their passage represents.

You will have understood, today I am taking you to Asia

to discover one of the most ambitious contemporary projects in the world.

Malacca is an important city in Malaysia.

Its historic center contains a lot of the country's history and the city attracts many tourists.

Among other activities, they can enjoy the tuktuks that cross

the city, armed with multi-colored neon lights and amplified music.

But Malacca is best known for having given its name to a strait.

A place that has become over the centuries a hub of world maritime routes.

To understand this, let's go back to geography class for a moment.

This natural waterway extends for nearly 900 kilometers.

Depending on the location, this arm of the sea is 3 to 393 kilometers wide,

with a minimum depth of 25 meters.

To the east, its gateway is the Singapore Strait.

It is then bordered by Peninsular Malaysia on one side and the island of Sumatra in Indonesia on the other.

A corridor which connects

the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean and avoids bypassing the Indonesian archipelago.

A prospect that takes away many days of navigation for boats

traveling between Asia and India, the Middle East, Africa or Europe.

An additional figure to prove the importance of the site:

It is estimated today that 16 million barrels of oil per day pass

through this strait, or nearly 15% of the daily consumption of black gold in the world.

A crucial strategic position that attracts much desire.

Indeed, for centuries, foreign powers have fought time

and time again to take control of this sea route.

A turbulent

but truly fascinating story, which deserves a closer look.

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But let's return a little to the Strait of Malacca which in 1982

came under the protection of three countries Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

They are mandated by the United Nations to manage its administration and ensure security.

Three countries which must face another threat,

that of pirates, mainly Malaysian and Indonesian.

The strait has in fact long been the target of acts of ransom or boat hijacking.

After the 1990s marked by the resurgence of these malicious acts,

the situation had become relatively safe in the Strait of Malacca.

An inventory that is no longer relevant.

And for good reason,

in the first three months of 2023 alone, 25 armed attacks

were recorded in the area, according to the Jakarta Post.

The phenomenon also worries shipowners since some have already diverted

the route of their boats

to take them through safer places, even if it means extending the journey time.

And in the region, certain countries would take advantage of this to bring up

to date projects offering a shortcut compared to the current route.

This is particularly the case for Thailand. Since the 17th century,

the country has aimed to bypass the strait by building a canal.

The location chosen is that of the Kra Isthmus, an arm of land which separates the Gulf of Thailand

from the Andaman Sea.

Many projects were mentioned to realize this titanic ambition,

but for historical and economic reasons, they were never implemented.

Until recently, the Canal project took the very official name of Route 9A.

The latest version planned a canal 128 kilometers long,

25 meters deep and 450 meters wide.

In addition, this maritime route would have required numerous sets of locks,

like the Panama Canal, perhaps with the same problems.

An engineering model, the Panama Canal is an extraordinary historic construction which

today finds itself at the mercy of climatic hazards, as we recently saw in a video.

Besides, if the subject interests you, I will put the link in the description.

Another limitation of the project is its prohibitive cost.

Meeting in committee to discuss this Canal project, Thai parliamentarians

highlighted that it would be too expensive to build compared to its potential future output.

In addition, this new canal would de facto be a separation line

that could be compared to an internal border in Thailand between the South and the rest of the country.

A prospect that does not please the authorities at all.

This part of the country, and in particular the province of Pattani,

is in fact prey to insurgency movements led by separatist movements.

These have also caused several thousand deaths since 2004.

A physical separation could give new impetus to separatist movements.

Finally, this maritime canal project is officially on the shelf for 2020,

but not the idea of ​​opening a new route for global traffic.

This desire now takes another form, that of a land bridge.

Concretely, the project aims to connect two ports in Thailand, that of Chumphon

to that of Ranong. To bridge the distance of 90 kilometers between the two cities,

a road, a railway line and a pipeline are planned.

To be able to transport the maximum amount of goods,

the two ports will be built in deep water.

Port infrastructures which will thus make it possible to accommodate all types of ships,

including the immense container ships that are the Panama and neo Panamax.

Once operational, these two ports would be able to handle nearly 20 million containers per year.

An activity which should enable the creation of nearly 100,000 jobs

and boost the regional economy for the coming decades.

Estimated cost of the project: $35.6 billion, an astronomical sum

announced by the Thai Prime Minister in office since August 2023.

The government officially gave the green light to this megaproject on October 16.

According to government plans, work is due to begin in September 2025

and will take place over eight years and four phases.

However, other observers believe that such an achievement will not be able to

come to fruition before 2039.

To finance its

titanic project, Bangkok is looking abroad to attract investors.

The Prime Minister thus made

numerous trips at the end of last year to hope to attract future partners.

Currently,

many countries seem interested, particularly in the Middle East and the United States.

But one country seems to have more appetite than the others for this project:

China.

It must be said that the Strait of Malacca is a strategic gateway for the country.

A large part of its trade with Europe, the Near and Middle East and even Africa

passes through this corridor.

The same goes for its energy supplies.

In 2035, the International Energy Agency estimates

that 85% of its oil supplies will pass through the Strait of Malacca.

A dependence which is not new and which has already worried the country's political elites for 20 years.

As early as 2003, the Chinese president at the time, Hu Jintao, made his concerns public.

Since then, Beijing's strategists

have continued to try to resolve what is called the "Malacca dilemma."

This strategic lock makes the country potentially vulnerable in the event

of a possible conflict with another state.

The constant commercial and diplomatic escalation between China and the United States

unfortunately makes this sad prospect of conflict possible.

A possible blockade of the strait organized by Washington

and its allies in the region would therefore be possible in the event of war.

It remains to be seen whether this company will be attractive and therefore profitable for investors.

On this point, doubt is allowed.

Traveling to Beijing to promote the project, the Prime Minister affirmed that this land bridge

will save time of 6 to 9 days

compared to the Strait of Malacca route, located 1,200 kilometers lower.

A gain that is certainly substantial, but which is less obvious than other strategic passages

such as the Panama Canal or the Suez Canal

which avoid weeks of navigation.

Additionally, logistics for shipping companies will be much more complex in Thailand.

It will indeed take a first ship to arrive at the first port, transport the goods 100 kilometers further

where a second boat will have to take over for the rest of the journey.

However,

traffic in the Strait of Malacca will continue to increase in the coming years.

Today, 86,000 cargo ships sail there each year.

A figure which could reach 126,000 in ten years, an increase of 46% in traffic.

And at present, the possible navigation solutions are imperfect.

This is the case with the Lombok and Sunda Straits.

Both allow crossing

the Indonesian archipelago to connect the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.

But this comes at the cost of a significant lengthening of journeys.

A data that is difficult to reconcile with a globalized economy which always requires

more speed in the transport of goods.

In this quest for logistical optimization,

a second country has revealed its ambitions for an alternative to the Strait of Malacca:

Malaysia. The country, which has partly built

its wealth around the strait, does not intend to let itself be overtaken without fighting back.

His solution? The East Coast Rail Link.

Behind this name hides an ambition, that of connecting two ports on the Malaysian peninsula

which could ultimately become a shortcut compared to the Strait of Malacca.

Construction, which began in 2017,

plans to connect the west coast of the peninsula to the east coast.

This new rail link will connect the port of Kuantan overlooking the

South China Sea to Port Klang, the country's main port city, overlooking the end of the Strait of Malacca.

A titanic project estimated at nearly $13 billion,

which could well pull the rug out from under Thai ambitions,

even if the time gain would be less.

There remains one point in common between the two projects:

China.

Indeed, Beijing also finances the Malaysian project to a large extent.

This omnipresence of investments in new transport infrastructure

development projects is not a coincidence.

Since 2013, China has been trying to develop a strategic program

aimed at being better connected to the rest of the world.

Called the New Silk Road, it now affects more than 130 countries around the world.

Beijing is investing and purchasing its infrastructure to better

connect its country and thus promote economic exchanges.

From the port of Gwadar in Pakistan to that of Piraeus in Greece,

China is multiplying projects. According to official figures,

Beijing has already committed more than $120 billion in investments.

Investments which

therefore pass, among others, in Malaysia via the East Coast Rail Link railway line.

Moreover, this new infrastructure has taken a significant lead compared

to the Thai land bridge.

In February 2024,

the country's authorities claimed that already more than 60% of the work was completed.

If in 2017, the end date of the project was announced for 2024,

today, December 31, 2027

is marked on the calendar to celebrate the total completion of the line.

It remains to be seen whether the Thai project will materialize to overshadow

this new Malaysian road.

And there you have it, it is with this perspective that our journey ends today.

I hope you enjoyed it.

If this is the case, don't hesitate to tell me

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In the meantime, I'll see you soon for a next video on Looking 4.