Netanyahu may be ‘going for a gigantic diversion’ with Lebanon war: Analysis

Summary

In this discussion, Paul Rogers, Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, analyzes the recent large-scale attacks in Lebanon. He suggests that while the US could potentially halt the conflict, internal politics prevent immediate action. Israel, under Netanyahu, appears to be avoiding a ceasefire, possibly using the conflict as a diversion until the US elections. Rogers highlights the challenges Israel faces in Gaza and the likelihood of air strikes over ground invasions in Lebanon. He also speculates on Hezbollah's resilience and the potential influence of the US elections on the Middle East's future.

Takeaways

• 🇺🇸 The United States is in a position to influence a ceasefire in Lebanon but is hesitant due to internal political reasons.
• 🕊️ Israel is not seeking a ceasefire at the moment, especially before the upcoming elections, and is focused on weakening Hezbollah's morale.
• 🚫 It is unlikely that Israel will attempt to occupy Southern Lebanon due to past experiences and the high cost in terms of troop losses.
• 🔄 The far-right in Israel may desire a re-occupation of Southern Lebanon, but such a move is not supported by the majority or practical considerations.
• 🛑 The 'Dahiya Doctrine' is being applied by Israel, which involves punishing the civilian population to weaken support for insurgents.
• 🔥 The Gaza Strip has been a site of the application of the Dahiya Doctrine, indicating a broader strategy by Israel.
• 🤔 Israel's inability to eliminate Hamas in Gaza suggests that the conflict there is not going as planned for them.
• 💥 Netanyahu might be using the conflict in Lebanon as a diversion tactic until the U.S. elections, hinting at the potential influence of those elections on the region.
• 🌐 The outcome of the U.S. elections could significantly impact the situation in the Middle East, with different policies potentially leading to different outcomes.
• 🔍 Despite recent Israeli successes, Hezbollah is expected to be resilient, possibly due to pre-planning and the ability to operate with minimal central coordination.

Q & A

What is Paul Rogers' view on the United States' ability to influence the situation in Lebanon?

Paul Rogers believes that the United States has the power to call for a halt to the conflict within days if it decides to, but due to internal politics, it is not prepared to do so at the moment.

How does Rogers think the situation in Lebanon has impacted Hezbollah?

Rogers suggests that Hezbollah was not entirely surprised by the events, although the scale may have been a shock. Hezbollah is likely prepared for such scenarios, even if they could not predict specifics.

What is Rogers' analysis of Israel's intentions regarding a ceasefire?

According to Rogers, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire before the next elections and is unlikely to change this stance regardless of the upcoming US presidential elections.

Why is Israel unlikely to occupy Southern Lebanon again, according to Paul Rogers?

Rogers points out that Israel's previous occupation of Southern Lebanon between 1982 and 1990 was costly, with 500 troops lost to raids, leading to their withdrawal. The experience from 2006 also showed significant challenges and losses for Israel, making another occupation unlikely.

What is the Dahr Doctrine as mentioned by Paul Rogers?

The Dahr Doctrine refers to a strategy of punishing the wider community to diminish support for insurgents, which has been applied in various conflicts, including by Israel in the Gaza Strip and historically by other nations.

How does Rogers assess the effectiveness of the war in Gaza from Israel's perspective?

Rogers suggests that the war in Gaza is failing for Israel as they cannot eliminate Hamas, and any agreement that allows Hamas to maintain a presence in Gaza is unacceptable to them.

What does Rogers think might be the fundamental reason behind Netanyahu's actions in Lebanon?

Rogers speculates that Netanyahu's actions could be a diversion tactic until the American elections, as the outcome could significantly influence the situation in the Middle East.

What type of military actions does Rogers expect from Israel in Lebanon?

Rogers anticipates that Israel's actions will primarily involve air strikes, with the possibility of other disruptions, but not a major ground invasion.

How does Rogers describe Hezbollah's preparedness for the current situation?

Rogers believes that Hezbollah is likely to be more resilient than expected, with individual groups or platoons having freedom of action and possibly pre-planned strategies that require minimal communication.

What does Rogers imply about the potential resilience of Hezbollah despite the challenges?

Rogers suggests that Hezbollah's resilience could be higher than anticipated, as they have managed to maintain control despite previous losses and the current situation.