Was the economy better under Trump? | Debate: Ben Shapiro vs Destiny - Lex Fridman Podcast
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the legislative accomplishments and fiscal policies of US Presidents Biden and Trump, highlighting the challenges of passing major legislation in a divided Senate and the philosophical differences in government spending and taxation. It touches on infrastructure bills, tax cuts, and the impact of COVID-19 stimulus spending on inflation. The conversation also delves into the role of government in economic recessions and the debate over deficit spending during different economic climates.
Takeaways
- 😐 Biden has managed to pass legislation such as the infrastructure bill, which Trump promised but couldn't achieve during his presidency.
- 🤔 There's a philosophical difference in government spending; some view tax cuts as government spending, while others see it as allowing individuals to keep their own money.
- 🏛️ Despite controlling both houses and the Supreme Court, Trump's administration didn't pass major legislation, which some attribute to the Republican base's resistance to increased spending.
- 💼 The U.S. has a progressive tax system, and to fund a European-style welfare state, middle-class taxes would need to be significantly higher.
- 🔍 The top 20% of Americans pay all net taxes after state benefits, indicating a high level of income inequality in tax contributions.
- 🤝 The Republican Party is divided, which impacts the legislative success of any Republican president, including Trump.
- 📉 There's a challenge in passing legislation that involves cutting government programs, as Americans generally oppose government growth but struggle to agree on specific cuts.
- 🌐 The lack of legislation under Trump is attributed to differing views within the Republican Party about the role of government.
- 💸 The concept of 'spending neutral' legislation is questioned, as government claims of spending neutrality often do not materialize.
- 🌟 The debate over tax cuts and government spending is tied to broader economic discussions, including inflation and the impact of stimulus spending on the economy.
Q & A
What is the main difference between Biden's and Trump's legislative accomplishments mentioned in the transcript?
-Biden managed to pass the infrastructure bill within a year, which Trump promised but couldn't achieve during his entire presidency. However, Trump had both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court but didn't pass major legislation.
How does the speaker view the government's role in fiscal responsibility?
-The speaker believes that when the government takes money from individuals, it's not being fiscally responsible, but when the government allows individuals to keep their money, it's a positive action. They view tax cuts as the government taking less, not as spending.
What is the speaker's stance on the United States' tax system and its relation to a social welfare state?
-The speaker acknowledges that the U.S. has a progressive tax system and that to have a European-style social welfare state, the middle class would need to be heavily taxed. They mention that the top 20% of the American population pays all net taxes after state benefits.
Why does the speaker think there is a lack of legislation passed under Trump?
-The speaker suggests that the Republican Party is divided and that Trump, as the head of the party, faced challenges in uniting the party for legislative efforts. They also mention that Republicans generally aim for less government involvement, which could explain the lack of passed legislation.
What does the speaker believe is the fundamental difference between Republican and Democratic views on government tasks?
-The speaker believes that Republicans and Democrats have different views on what the government should do. Republicans tend to favor fewer government programs, while Democrats are more inclined to expand government roles, leading to different legislative priorities.
How does the speaker view the concept of 'spending neutral' legislation?
-The speaker is skeptical about the government's ability to create truly spending-neutral legislation, suggesting that such claims rarely materialize as intended.
What is the speaker's opinion on the relationship between tax cuts and deficit spending?
-The speaker considers continuous tax cuts without corresponding spending reductions as wild overspending and an increase in deficit spending.
How does the speaker explain the inflationary effects of government stimulus spending?
-The speaker defines inflation as too much money chasing too few goods and argues that pouring more money into an already inflated economy leads to more inflation.
What is the speaker's view on when it is appropriate to engage in deficit spending?
-The speaker believes that deficit spending should occur when economies are heading towards recessions, not when they are doing well, as was the case under Trump's administration.
How does the speaker assess the economic recovery post-COVID-19?
-The speaker sees the economic recovery as a V-shaped bounce back after the initial downturn caused by the pandemic. However, they attribute the subsequent slowdown to the effects of the American Recovery plan and not to the natural progression of economic recovery.
Outlines
💼 Legislative Accomplishments and Fiscal Responsibility
The speaker discusses the legislative achievements of President Biden and contrasts them with those of President Trump. They mention Biden's work in a 50-50 divided Senate and Trump's control over both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, yet Trump's inability to pass significant legislation. The conversation touches on the infrastructure bill passed under Biden, which Trump had promised but failed to deliver. There's a debate on the philosophy of government spending, with the speaker arguing that tax cuts are not the same as government spending. The discussion also covers the impact of tax policies on the middle class and the need for higher taxes to support a social welfare state. The speaker criticizes both presidents for deficit spending and suggests that the Republican Party is divided, which hinders legislative progress.
🌐 Economic Trends and Government Intervention
This paragraph delves into economic trends, particularly focusing on employment statistics and economic growth under the Obama and Trump administrations. The speaker questions the effectiveness of government stimulus packages, such as the American Recovery plan, in boosting job growth. They argue that the economic recovery post-COVID-19 was V-shaped and began to level off due to the Biden administration's policies. The speaker also discusses the potential for a recession due to inflation caused by excessive government spending, contrasting the economic conditions under Trump with those under Biden. The conversation suggests that the economy was not actually heading for a recession and that the current inflation and potential recession are consequences of previous economic policies.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Legislative Accomplishments
💡Deficit Spending
💡Tax Cuts
💡Progressive Tax System
💡Inflation
💡Infrastructure Bill
💡American Recovery Plan
💡Economic Growth
💡COVID-19 Stimulus Spending
💡V-Shaped Recovery
💡CHIPS Act
Highlights
Discussion on Biden's legislative accomplishments in a 50-50 divided Senate versus Trump's with both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court.
Infrastructure bill passed under Biden after Trump's failure to do so throughout his presidency.
Opposing views on government spending and tax cuts, with a focus on individual fiscal responsibility.
The role of state and local governments in infrastructure spending versus federal initiatives.
Analysis of the U.S. tax system's progressive nature and its implications for social welfare policies.
Debate on the effectiveness of tax cuts as a fiscal policy tool and its impact on government spending.
The division within the Republican Party and its impact on legislative success under Trump's presidency.
The challenge of passing legislation that reduces government involvement, as opposed to expanding it.
The philosophical difference between Republican and Democratic views on the government's role and legislative priorities.
Foreign policy discussion, including Trump's and Biden's approaches to China and the CHIPS Act.
Critique of the government's claims of spending neutrality and the reality of budgetary outcomes.
The economic debate on tax cuts, spending, and the resulting impact on inflation and deficit.
Comparison of economic conditions under Trump and Biden, including job growth and economic recovery.
The argument on whether the economy was actually in need of stimulus spending or if it was already on a recovery path.
Discussion on the timing and necessity of deficit spending in relation to economic cycles and potential recessions.
The impact of COVID-19 on the economy and the subsequent stimulus spending's role in inflation.
Transcripts
because we can say the reality of it and
we can look at opinion polls what if we
look at like legislative accomplishments
like Biden is working on a 50-50 divided
Senate Donald Trump had both house of
Congress and the Supreme Court and got
like no major legislation pass well I
mean he he he did lose Congress in 2018
but sure but prior to that because we
got the we got the infrastructure bill I
think in one year which Trump promised
for his entire presidency didn't get
anywhere on well I mean yes his his
Republican base was not in favor of mass
spending on infastructure and neither am
I so there's that I think that's mostly
a state and local they were in favor of
mass spending for tax guns that's not a
spending I mean we I mean effectively it
is right like effectively it's not well
if you're cutting tax receipts but
you're not changing the level of
spending like Biden did with the uh Ira
again we have a fundamental
philosophical difference here I think
that when when the government takes my
money that is not that is not the
government somehow being more fiscally
responsible and when the government
allows me to keep my money I don't see
that as the government spending I see
that as my money and the government is
taking less of it that's great but the
end of the day the government is still
going to be in a deficit spending and
they're going to have to borrow money
from the treasure right we have a
spending problem in other words not a
receipts problem is the case that I'm
making but the problem with with Donald
Trump is not that he lowered taxes the
United States has one of the most
progressive tax systems on the planet
and in fact if you wish to have a
European style social welfare state what
you actually need is to tax the middle
class to death I mean the reality is the
top 20% of the American population pays
literally all net taxes in the United
States after after state benefits and
all of this sure so if if you actually
wanted to have the kind of social
welfare state that many liberals seem to
want to have like northern Europe for
example
you'd actually have to tax people who
make 460,000 I I agree with that how do
you explain the lack of legislation I
mean if he's like such a uniter because
I think the Republican Party itself is
is quite divided and I think that Trump
but isn't that his job he's the head of
the Republican Party he's the president
Republican president of the United
States I mean again I don't think that
Joe Biden has passed wildly historic
legislation was the largest like here
here's the problem if you're a
republican the only bills that you can
get consensus on tend to be bills that
either that that let's be real about
this that are tax cuts because as you
would I think agree with when it comes
to polling data Americans constantly say
they want to cut the government and then
the minute you ask them which program
they have no idea what're right exactly
and so trying to it's much harder to
come up with a bill to cut things than
it is to come up with a bill to add
things coming which is why spending was
out of control under under Trump as well
but there are some Republicans who still
don't want to spend on those things
right so inherently the the task that
this goes back to the first question the
task that Republicans think government
is there to do is different than the
task that Democrats think that
government is there to do so the way
that the very metric of success for a
Democratic president versus a Republican
president namely for example pieces of
legislation passed as a republican one
of my goals is to pass nearly no
legislation because I don't actually
want the government involved in more
areas of of our life I want to ask a
couple questions on the foreign policy
yeah okay wait real quick just so for
instance like Donald Trump wanted to
punish China and he wanted to bring uh
microprocessor manufacturer the United
States uh Biden did that with
legislation with a chips act uh you talk
about like spending being out of control
and I I mean I can agree with that I
think anybody looks at the numbers has
to agree with that but why not pass
legislation like the inflation reduction
act um which is at least like spending
neutral right like why are there not
bills where Donald Trump could take well
I mean first of all I think that
whenever the government says something
spending neutral it rarely materializes
that way that is not going to be a
spending neutral Bill sure but there's a
difference between like at least they
say it's spending neutral versus this is
a $500 billion bill over like 10 years I
well but again I don't see a tax cut as
a matter of quot on spending neutrality
the big problem is they keep spending
not that they are allowing me to keep
the money that I earned and they did not
earn
okay so then just to understand so if
somebody just did massive like
reductions in tax receipts so tax cut
after tax C after tax cut but they
didn't change spending at all you
wouldn't consider that like an increase
in deficit spending or out of control
spending you would just say they're just
tax cuts no the opposite I I would
consider it a wild I I would considered
a wild overspending okay meaning so then
was it under Trump then when he did the
tax I mean the spending by the way under
under Biden is way worse than it was
under of course but we're in postco
right Co ended effectively I mean you
live in Florida Co effectively ended in
the State of Florida by the middle
middle of
2021 if you're a vacc fan by like April
May of 2021 there was wide availability
of vaccines whether or not you like the
vaccines and at that point we were done
I agree but like we're in a post like
how many trillions of dollars have been
dumped in worldwide that are like
leading to inflation right the inflation
is like a worldwide uh issue right now
because of the economy shutting down for
a year or two it's not like those
effects are gone in one year right covid
might be gone but the after effects of
all the stimulus spending and the
unemployment everything else the
definition of inflation is too much
money chasing too few goods so pouring
more money on top of that makes for more
inflation that's what it does sure I
agree um but like there's also the
definition of when do you deficit spend
is when economies are headed for
recessions right rather than when
economies are doing really well like
they were under Trump and he was deficit
spending whereas Biden can at least make
the argument that I should I ought to be
deficit spending because the economy is
heading for potential recession so
here's the thing I don't think that the
economy was actually headed for
recession in in fact if you look at the
economic St Economist said they it was
Economist still saying that there's like
a recession coming right right but that
that was largely because of the after
effects of inflation meaning if you
inflate the economy what you're going to
end up doing is bursting a bubble and
then when that bubble bursts you'll get
a recession I mean that was the basic
idea right the idea the question was
whether you're going to get the soft
Landing but if you actually look at for
example the employment statistics or the
economic growth statistics in the United
States what they look like under the
last year's Obama and then Trump I mean
this is what the chart looks like is it
looks like this and then it hits March
of 2020 it goes like that yeah right and
then by like September it bounces back
up right it's a v-shaped recovery and
then it starts to Peter out sure because
of the American Recovery plan right that
Biden did as well I mean four million
jobs yeah no I'm not going to attribute
it to that because the the rates of
growth in in job growth from September
October November were actually very
similar to the rates of job growth after
Joe Biden took
office
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