Warning: China is Collapsing.
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses a potential economic collapse in China, evidenced by the closure of over a million restaurants and a real estate market worse than the 2008 crisis. It highlights China's deflationary figures, wage deflation, and the impact on global supply chains. The speaker, Kevin, speculates on the effects on the US dollar and American companies heavily invested in China, warning of a possible deflationary spiral and its broader economic repercussions.
Takeaways
- 📉 China's economy is facing significant challenges, with reports of over a million restaurant closures and a real estate market collapse.
- 🏭 The manufacturing industry in China is struggling with overcapacity, leading to soaring bankruptcies.
- 📈 Despite previous optimism, China's real estate stocks have continued to plummet, indicating a worsening crisis.
- 💸 China is experiencing deflation, with supply chains being loose and government stimulus measures potentially exacerbating the issue.
- 📊 The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has shown the weakest growth in three years, signaling economic contraction.
- 🏢 There's a comparison to Japan's economic stagnation, with concerns that China's policies could lead to a similar prolonged downturn.
- 🚫 The Chinese government has been accused of suppressing negative economic news, such as deflation, which could lead to misinformed economic decisions.
- 📉 The potential for a deflationary recession in China could impact global markets, including commodity prices and supply chain stability.
- 💼 Many multinational companies, including Tesla, Apple, and Starbucks, have significant revenue exposure to China, which could be at risk.
- 💡 The speaker suggests considering a diversified investment strategy that may involve reducing exposure to Chinese markets due to the economic uncertainty.
Q & A
What is the current economic situation in China as described in the transcript?
-The transcript describes a severe economic downturn in China, with a real estate collapse, deflationary figures, and a potential crisis that could be the worst in 40 years since China opened its economy to the world.
How has the real estate sector in China been impacted according to the transcript?
-The real estate sector in China is described as being in a crisis worse than the 2008 global financial crisis, with a significant number of restaurants shuttering and overcapacity leading to soaring bankruptcies.
What is the 'deflationary doom loop' mentioned in the transcript, and how does it relate to China's economy?
-The 'deflationary doom loop' refers to a cycle where increased manufacturing capacity leads to lower prices due to oversupply, which in turn causes wage deflation as workers accept lower wages, leading to reduced consumer spending and further economic contraction.
What is the potential impact of China's economic situation on the United States as discussed in the transcript?
-The transcript suggests that China's economic struggles could lead to deflation being exported to the U.S., potentially affecting commodity prices and supply chains. It also raises concerns about the stability of companies with significant revenue from China.
Why is wage deflation a significant concern in China's economy as per the transcript?
-Wage deflation is a concern because it perpetuates a deflationary cycle where reduced incomes lead to less spending, which further lowers corporate revenues and can lead to more layoffs and bankruptcies.
What is the 'three red lines' policy mentioned in the transcript, and how did it affect the real estate market in China?
-The 'three red lines' policy was a regulatory measure by the Chinese government to curb excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. It led to a credit crunch and contributed to the real estate collapse by making it harder for developers to refinance their debts.
How does the transcript suggest that China's economic issues could affect global markets?
-The transcript suggests that if China's economic issues worsen, it could lead to a global liquidity crisis as Chinese companies and individuals sell off assets abroad to cover losses. This could create market volatility and affect global supply chains.
What are some of the companies mentioned in the transcript that have significant exposure to the Chinese market?
-The transcript mentions companies like Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Starbucks, Nike, and Caterpillar, which have a significant portion of their revenue coming from the Chinese market, indicating their exposure to economic risks in China.
What is the 'Black Swan' event referred to in the transcript, and how could it relate to China's economy?
-A 'Black Swan' event refers to an extremely rare and unpredictable economic or financial event with severe impact. The transcript suggests that China's economic crisis could potentially trigger such an event, causing widespread market disruption.
What advice does the transcript provide for investors regarding China's economic situation?
-The transcript advises investors to be cautious and consider decreasing their exposure to Chinese markets due to the economic risks. It also suggests seeking professional financial advice to navigate the potential impacts on their portfolios.
Outlines
📉 Economic Crisis in China: Real Estate and Manufacturing Challenges
The paragraph discusses the potential collapse of China's economy, with a focus on the real estate sector and manufacturing industry. It highlights the closure of over a million restaurants and the deflationary figures reported by China. The real estate stocks have seen a continuous decline, which is compared to the 2008 global financial crisis. The paragraph also touches on the overcapacity in manufacturing leading to soaring bankruptcies, and the potential impact on the US dollar and American economy.
💸 Wage Deflation and its Domino Effect on the Chinese Economy
This paragraph delves into the concept of wage deflation in China, where manufacturers, facing overcapacity, resort to layoffs. This leads to a panic among workers who are willing to accept lower wages to secure employment, perpetuating a deflationary cycle. The result is reduced household spending, falling corporate revenues, and increased bankruptcies. The paragraph also mentions the significant drop in salaries since August 2022 and the comparison of China's economic situation to Japan's economic stagnation.
🚫 China's Suppression of Negative Economic News and Its Repercussions
The paragraph discusses China's attempts to suppress negative economic news, particularly regarding deflation. It contrasts this with the Soviet Union's historical attempts to control economic narratives, which ultimately led to collapse. The paragraph also mentions the weak core CPI in China and the former Central Bank governor's acknowledgment of deflation as a top priority. Additionally, it touches on the potential for China's economic policies to create a deflationary doom loop and the impact on global supply chains.
🌐 Global Implications of China's Economic Struggles
This paragraph explores the potential global impact of China's economic downturn, including the possibility of exporting deflation to other countries like the United States. It discusses the benefits of lower manufacturing costs in China for companies like Apple and Tesla, but also the risks of a tightened supply chain and the potential for a 'Black Swan' event. The paragraph also covers the decline in foreign direct investment in China and the unpredictability of its policymaking, which could lead to cascading debt failures and market volatility.
📉 Impact on US Companies with Exposure to China
The final paragraph focuses on the impact of China's economic struggles on US companies that have significant revenue exposure to the Chinese market. It provides examples of companies like Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Starbucks, and Nike, which could be affected by a downturn in China. The paragraph also discusses the potential for asset dumping by Chinese companies, leading to a liquidity crisis and the broader implications for global markets. It concludes with a cautionary note on investing in Chinese markets and the importance of considering the potential risks.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Deflation
💡Real Estate Collapse
💡Supply Chains
💡Wage Deflation
💡Manufacturing Overcapacity
💡Economic Stimulus
💡Black Swan Event
💡Commodity Prices
💡Consumer Confidence
💡Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Highlights
China's economy is facing a significant downturn with over a million restaurants shuttering.
The crisis in China's real estate market is being compared to the 2008 global financial crisis.
China's manufacturing industry is struggling with overcapacity leading to soaring bankruptcies.
Deflationary figures from China indicate supply chain issues post-COVID are not being resolved.
Wage deflation in China is contributing to a deflationary doom loop, impacting consumer spending and corporate revenues.
China's economic downturn is being compared to Japan's economic stagnation since the 1990s.
Chinese authorities are reportedly pressuring economists to avoid discussing negative economic trends like deflation.
The potential for a deflationary recession in China could have ripple effects on global markets, including the US.
Commodity prices are at their lowest since August 2021, which could indicate a global recession or China's economic struggles.
A potential Black Swan event could arise from China's economic crisis, affecting global financial stability.
Some multinational companies like Tesla, Apple, and Starbucks have significant revenue exposure to China, which could be at risk.
The video discusses the potential for decreased exposure to Chinese markets due to economic uncertainty.
The speaker suggests that the actual economic data from China might be worse than what is being reported.
Investors are advised to consider the potential risks and adjust their portfolios accordingly, possibly seeking professional financial advice.
The video provides a cautionary perspective on investing in Chinese markets and the importance of diversification.
The speaker highlights the importance of not relying solely on Chinese economic data and considering the potential for data inaccuracies.
Transcripts
well holy smokes there's a chance China
could just be collapsing in front of our
eyes at least economically and don't use
my words here for it just look at some
of these previews Here China shutters
more than 1 million restaurants as
economy Withers okay that's just one of
them and these are characterizations
that are popping up everywhere they're
just getting worse and wor worse and
worse here's one from the times where
they say why is it so hard for China to
fix its alien economy a real estate
collapse has many consumers cautious and
businesses wary as China confronts a
crisis unlike any other since it opened
its economy to the world now keep in
mind they opened their economy to the
world 40 years ago so in other words
this is potentially the worst economic
crisis in China in 40 years I mean
consider this as well China's real
estate stocks you thought it was bad
when the companies started plummeting
and tanking back in 21 and 22 oh no no
no no the problem has just gotten worse
and worse and worse look at that you had
some enthusiasm crash you had enthusiasm
crash you had enthusiasm crash every dip
has just been followed by more and more
pain the real estate crisis in China is
now Now worse than what we saw in
2008 which is insane because that was a
real estateel catastrophe a global
financial crisis so what the heck is
going on and what is all of this pain
going to mean for America and I think
that's really what's important to look
at here because one of the things that
you're getting is almost on a daily
basis I'm seeing article after article
after article about how China is falling
apart not just those that you just saw
but even what China is known for their
manufacturing industry going broke and
now overc capacity is leading to Soaring
bankruptcies and so we have to consider
wait what could this mean for our dollas
in the United States is Kevin Kevin just
just give it to a straight is is it
going to be okay well let's figure it
out because it ain't going to be okay
for some but for others yeah maybe let's
see which side you're on so first of all
China just reported some crazy
deflationary figures and the problem
with deflation is that Supply chains are
so freaking loose after covid that
there's really no way to stimulate these
Supply chains because China is like a
manufacturing economy Okay cool so let's
let's think about it this way for a
moment let's say you run a factory that
could make 10,000 of these then CO's hit
Co hits and all of a sudden there's
Global demand for 20,000 of these over
that same period of time and you're like
I need no I need more manufacturing
space so you build an add-on to your
manufacturing facility you buy more
Machinery you hire more people now
you're like all right it's 2024 we're
ready to make 20,000 cups of you know
over what period of time call it a month
and uh now all of a sudden you look at
orders and the orders coming in aren't
10,000 15,000 20,000 no none of those
they're like 2 ,000 and you're like bro
I just expanded and overbuilt yo
government let me get on my China device
and go yo government please bail me out
I need some help okay so the
government's like oh we should bail him
out and so what do they do here's some
money so you could expand your factory
and create more jobs so then you go
expand your factory and hire more people
and you're like all right government I
have done the deed I have expanded
capacity even more now instead of being
able to manufacture 20,000 mugs I can do
30,000 and the government's like
oh that means you can do it even cheaper
which in other words continues what's
now being referred to as the
deflationary Doom Loop in China in other
words because you have a
manufacturing country when the
government the Communist Party of China
decides to stim ulate all they're really
doing is creating more deflation so this
is like a horrible Loop that they're in
to the point now well listen to this we
are now at the fifth we're now expecting
the fifth quarter in a row of deflation
in China on a GDP Factor based on the
last inflation reads that we just got
and one of the biggest drivers of
deflation that you're seeing in China is
a big warning to America it's wage defl
see incomes have been sagging so much in
China because as soon as those
manufacturers say crap you know we got
too much Machinery we got too much
capacity here the first thing they do is
lay off and then what happens is people
start panicking because they're like bro
I need to pay my mortgage or I need to
pay my rent or whatever so they offer
their labor services for a fraction of
what they were willing to earn
previously just to be able to have some
form of income wage deflation
perpetuates this deflationary snowball
then you get households that spend less
because they expect prices to continue
to fall corporate revenues fall more
corporate layoffs companies start going
bankrupt because more people then when
there are layoffs spend even less now
you have salaries that are literally
down 10% since August of 2022 think
about that like people's pay went up
like crazy during the pandemic at least
a lot of people's hopefully yours was
included in that if if not you know hey
we'll consult with you over at stock
hack.com to make sure you can make some
more money go check out our financial
advisory wealth business service at
stock hack.com we're opening up uh
October 1st it's going to be amazing uh
but anyway in a survey of over 300
Executives in
China the survey results showed the
weakest growth in labor costs since Co
and now people are starting to refer to
what's happening in China as oh my gosh
this is going to be like Japan you
remember what happened to Japan let me
just put it this way you know how people
are like oh buy the dip on the S&P 500
and don't worry about it like you know
all the macro news and all that stuff
doesn't matter okay well let's Google
The Nay
225 this is the Tokyo Stock Exchange
average of you know 225 of their uh
largest Securities and so what do you
end up with oh okay all right you know
what's the oneyear return oh 11% that's
great that seems a lot like uh you know
what You' get in the S&P 500 oh okay all
right fine what about the fiveyear oh
it's up 64% Kevin what are you
complaining about okay well let's go out
to
Max and let's look at
1989 in
1989 which is I mean think about this
this is like 33 years ago more than that
it's like 35 years ago
35 years ago folks 35 years ago the
stock market the the k225 was higher
than it is today so if you bought the
dip in
1989 you might just now be break even
it's crazy uh so anyway now now think
about that in the meantime like if
people are making this comparison that
China could turn into Japan then this is
really bad like what's next well the
first thing that's next is that China
starts trying to prevent economists from
talking about deflation this actually
started happening I think it was the
financial times deflation Economist
China I'm pretty sure if you look that
up you will find uh that um the
financial times reported that China told
Economist whatever you do do not report
on negative news like deflation we want
you to avoid talking about that now
that's really interesting because I then
looked at what the economist had to say
about that and the economist suggested
wait a minute wait a minute if we start
trying to control the narrative then
what'll end up happening is we'll end up
like the Soviet Union where at first you
can lie to people at first you could
tell them the data is good when it's not
oh yeah GDP is 4% when you're lying
through your teeth and you know it's not
but what happens when the market is no
longer able to properly react to real
data well the market stays propped up on
fugazi and when the market stays propped
up on fugazi then all of a sudden the
leaders in this country start going ha
see our charades working and then they
start going cool so uh you know we're
the leaders of the country what's uh
what's the real data and all of a sudden
the economists are like we don't know
because you lied about some of the
original data so we don't know what
we're comparing to and then all of a
sudden the bottom falls out and you're
like why did Soviet Union
collapse well it's one of the reasons
all of a sudden wow when you take
control of an entire economy via author
authoritarian means what a surprise it
all collapses here it is Financial Times
August of last year is when they started
doing this Chinese authorities are
putting pressure on prominent local
economists to avoid discussing negative
Trends such as deflation as concerns
Mount about beijing's ability to boost a
flagging recovery in the world's second
biggest economy
oopsies well guess what covering it up
didn't work and now you have the weakest
core CPI in 3 years and now you
literally have a former Central Bank
governor of the Chinese Communist Party
say that's the um um People's Bank of
China saying uh rooting out deflation
has become a top priority oh so now yall
are starting to admit you made a little
oopsy dupsies remember back in the day
China gave you know during Co China gave
like $500 of consumer stimulus to
Consumers while the United States
provided the equivalent of like 55 to
six $5,500 to $6,000 so like 10x the
stimulus China doesn't stimulate their
consumers they stimulate their job
providers but that just leads to more
deflation and probably malinvestment by
keeping bankrupt manufacturers open now
on one hand it's probably good for
manufacturing costs to go down but there
is that deflationary Doom Loop you have
to consider so let's think for a moment
about the good the good is that maybe if
manufacturers are competing for more
work it's now cheaper for Apple to
manufacture in China it's now cheaper
for Tesla to manufacture in China great
if it's cheaper to manufacture there you
could build cars there or build phones
there export them to other countries and
great you don't have to go to IND
or you know Taiwan or some other country
just do it in China because it's gotten
so freaking cheap to do it there this
whole idea that oh D globalization is
going to cause inflation bull crap I've
been saying it for years reglobalization
and it'll be even cheaper than it was
before because you'll face
deflation that's exactly what you've got
right now because the financial times
calls demand
lackluster oh it's much more than
lackluster confidence in China's economy
is crushing in China to the point where
consumer confidence is at the same
levels that we saw when Co hit and
stayed down during the entire real
estate crisis you haven't seen any like
heartbeat over here it's like a flatline
it's bad foreign companies called
China's policymaking unpredictable
unfair or uninvestable per The Economist
foreign direct investment in China is at
the worst level on record down at least
30% year-over-year in just the first 7
months of 2024 and declining and it's
already been declining it's pretty bad
and some policy makers in China say
China has just killed long-term
confidence on China now some say well
China's at least trying to loosen laws
for entrepreneur to try to stir up
demand but they could just flip-flop
again remember what they did during the
co lockdowns lockdown lock down hey
everybody can go open everything's fine
oh no that kind of stuff can happen with
regulations as well in fact some say
that's what started the the real estate
crisis in China you know you had this uh
this uh uh incentive from the government
to just keep building real estate
whether it was profitable or not so
companies were taking on debt on debt on
debt on debt they were selling
properties that weren't built yet and so
you were getting these poorly built
properties because they were already
sold the builders didn't really have an
incentive anymore to do a great job and
then all of a sudden China's like you
know we don't like how much debt you all
have cranks them down with the three red
lines policy and oh my gosh we created a
real estate collapse what yeah wow China
messing with your free market oh what
free market anyway so how could
potentially a depression a deflationary
recession or whatever you want to call
it whatever it ends up being affect
America well think about this first of
all if it gets so bad like initially we
think oh this could be good for
manufacturers because you can make
things cheaper which basically means if
you have deflation in China you're
actually probably exporting deflation to
America so you have more uh deflation
here because our import prices are lower
this is good H if you have a recession
in China you might also have commodity
prices decline which if you look at the
bcom index which is just the Bloomberg
commodities index for you know what's
going on with commodity prices if you go
year-to dat dude Rock freaking bottom
year-to date we're at the lowest level
of commodity prices year-to date lowest
level in the last one year and quite
frankly we're at the lowest level of
commodity prices since about August of
2021 so this either signals that you're
going into a recession or it signals
that China's in a freaking recession or
Worse
both so uh now again Commodities could
be a good thing in other words commodity
prices coming down oil prices go down
gas is cheaper for us In America which
hopefully stimulates consumer demand in
America hopefully uh you get you know
lower cost of goods sold again at
companies like Tesla but what happens
when those factories just still can't
make a buck in China and they go
bankrupt well now all of a sudden you
could actually instead of having really
loose Supply chains you can tighten
Supply chains again basically what you
open up the risk to is some form of a
Black Swan now I'm not trying to
Doomsday here suggest that there's
definitely going to be a Black Swan but
when you have this sort of crisis of
companies going bankrupt in China
there's a possibility that these Chinese
companies have to dump whatever assets
they have those could be american-based
assets like treasuries stocks various
corporate bonds you name it you could
get even more of a liquidity crisis
companies or businesses that made
investments in China lose money there so
they have to free up money elsewhere
could be bad for crypto assets across
the board it doesn't really matter what
it is people are trying to get out of
China but this also creates an issue
because the people who are still trying
to hang on like the business owners or
the companies or the Executives that
have assets elsewhere might have to dump
those so pain in China can be felt and
rippled throughout the entire world
again we don't want a Black Swan to
happen but it can and China could be
what causes it now it's unlikely to be a
carry trade style speculative crash like
we had with the Japanese uh um Yen uh
here you have the Yuan also the ren mini
as the currency system the um the black
swans though not just Market volatility
which you can get from these companies
dumping less again the carry trade I
think still a possibility though Supply
chains failing but you could also just
get debt failures and cascading debt
failures so when companies that owe
money can't make their payments anymore
because they're going bankrupt now all
of a sudden certain financial
institutions that were lenders could go
BK and that could trickle over it's very
complicated to say exactly who gets hit
but here's some examples of companies
that have a lot of money coming from
China and these are just some examples
you could generally look at this
yourself uh and and evaluate for
yourself how companies you might be
investing in are exposed but I think
it's very interesting to know that
22.7% of Tesla's Revenue in 2023 came
from the Chinese market so yes it's nice
to have cheaper manufacturing ability in
China but if you're also in a position
where you know nearly a quarter of your
revenue is coming from China that's not
as great now Nvidia used to have about a
quarter of its Revenue coming from China
but that's that's now substantially
declined because of the air Russian
export control restrictions limiting
some of their ex a lot of their exports
to China at least for the greatest chips
they go through other countries now and
get black market smuggled 18.9% of Apple
revenues come from China and 8% of
Starbucks Revenue comes from China but
30% of their stores are in China that's
because over the last 3 or four years
they made a big bet on doubling the
number of stores they have in China
thinking that they'd be able to sell
Starbucks American coffee in China but
with a million restaurants going
bankrupt in China so far just in 2024
people like
oh oh no no no no I'm not buying
Starbucks I'm going to go buy luckin
coffee or something cheaper in China why
buy Starbucks American brand when you
could get it for a fraction of the cost
it's just freaking coffee and the
Starbucks Coffee ain't that good anyway
when you could get that somewhere else
now I know they're trying to shove the
Chipotle CEO in over there but good luck
that's all I got to say about that one
Nike's got about 15% of their revenue in
China caterpillar about 5 to 10% of
their revenue in China maybe more
they're a little less clear in it but
usually you could just find this
information in the annual reports for
these companies so I'm a little bit
nervous about China and I'm tempted to
decrease my EXP exposure uh to Chinese
markets you know broadly because I'm I
can't bet I've I've said for years I'm
not going to bet on the Chinese consumer
I don't know China that well but what I
do know is based on what we're seeing
even coming from China now is that it's
probably a lot worse than we think and
I'm not going to be the person to
speculate that the hints that we're
getting that it's worse than we think or
wrong and it's actually better than we
think so I'm going to stay away from the
China a place uh now again I feel bad
because you know like I I think Baba is
selling at a huge discount maybe it's
already priced in a lot of that pain
it's a very inexpensive company but
that's only assuming that its growth
holds up based on the LIE of the Chinese
data that we might be getting what if
the Chinese data is so wrong that we're
getting that the growth numbers are
actually way worse for GDP and therefore
future growth expectations for Alibaba
uh and you know so JD or whatever some
of these other companies are actually
way worse teu than the others I mean we
already saw some of the reports come out
like teu was a freaking disaster uh you
know what happens at that point when the
real data comes out and people are like
oh my gosh we've been misled these
aren't companies that are actually
growing they're actually shrinking I
mean you you here I'll open up the week
chart here really quickly on the uh uh
the company working uh Teemu it's still
not at a low here but look at this
decline you just recently had here I
mean you just recently went from 150
bucks down to 92 and that's just because
some of the data is starting to show up
in earnings well what happens when all
of the data of this pain shows up are
these going to be even lower like what
we saw in the 2022 stock market sh sell
off in America except now with real
Chinese data who knows but there are
things that I'm watching anyway these
are my thoughts if you have questions
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as well thanks so much for watching the
video we'll see you in the next one
goodbye folks and good luck these things
that you told us here I feel like nobody
else knows about this we'll we'll try a
little advertising in seeo
congratulations man you have done so
much people love you people look up to
you Kevin P Financial
and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to
get your
take even though I'm a licensed
financial adviser licensed real estate
broker and becoming a stock broker this
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