Late Kick Live Ep 543: FIVE Biggest Saturdays | Cowherd OU Take | Tenn & PennSt Predict | Bama’s G.M
Summary
TLDRIn this college football analysis, the host discusses the potential of various teams, including Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Penn State, for the upcoming season. He addresses concerns about early predictions, the impact of coaching changes, and key player performances. The show also covers significant Saturdays in the sport, bold predictions for the season, and the implications of Courtney Morgan's contract extension at Alabama, signaling a shift in the college football personnel industry.
Takeaways
- 📅 The show is set in downtown Nashville, Tennessee on Tuesday, August 20th, 2024, indicating a forward-looking discussion about the college football season.
- 🏈 The speaker emphasizes the significance of October 12th as a major date in the college football calendar, with several high-profile matchups scheduled for this day.
- 🔄 There is a sense of uncertainty and concern expressed by the speaker about predictions made earlier, hinting at potential adjustments to come.
- 🤔 The speaker acknowledges feeling 'moderately to severely shaken' about the accuracy of predictions made before the season, suggesting a need for reevaluation.
- 🎙️ The show's host discusses the importance of the college football personnel industry, mentioning a significant raise for Courtney Morgan, the general manager at Alabama.
- 🏆 The host outlines 'five biggest Saturdays' in the college football season, highlighting key match-ups that could determine the sport's landscape.
- 📈 The transcript mentions a segment on team predictions for Tennessee and Penn State, indicating a detailed analysis of these teams' prospects.
- 🤷♂️ The speaker addresses a take by Colin Cowherd on Oklahoma's football program, defending the Sooners against the notion that they might become the 'next Nebraska' in terms of falling from prominence.
- 👍 The host praises the Oklahoma coaching staff, including head coach Brent Venables, and their recruiting strategies, particularly in Texas.
- 🚀 The speaker predicts that the dynamics of college football are becoming more favorable to Oklahoma, suggesting a bright future for the program despite changes in the sport.
- 🎉 The show concludes with a discussion of bold predictions for the upcoming season, including the potential for a four-loss team to make it into the playoffs.
Q & A
What is the speaker's primary concern regarding the college football season?
-The speaker is moderately to severely shaken and concerned because they feel predictions were made too early and may need adjustment.
What significant date in the college football season is highlighted in the transcript?
-October 12th is highlighted as a significant date, featuring major matchups like Ohio State vs. Oregon and Penn State vs. USC.
What is the significance of Courtney Morgan's raise at Alabama?
-Courtney Morgan's raise is significant as it has the potential to reset the standards for compensation within the college football personnel industry.
What is the speaker's strategy for handling predictions in the show?
-The speaker plans to adjust predictions as needed, acknowledging that as long as the week zero hasn't started, changes to picks are permissible.
What is the significance of October 26th in the college football season?
-October 26th is significant for matchups like Missouri at Alabama and Oklahoma at Ole Miss, which could have major implications for the ACC Championship.
What is the speaker's view on the ACC's chances of winning a national title this year?
-The speaker does not believe the ACC has a national championship contender but does predict that the ACC will have two teams in the playoff.
What is the speaker's opinion on Ryan Day's coaching ability and the importance of the 2024 season for him?
-The speaker believes that Ryan Day is in a high-pressure situation but is the right person for the job at Ohio State, and mental strength will be key to his success.
What does the speaker think about the impact of Courtney Morgan's contract on other general managers in college football?
-The speaker believes that Courtney Morgan's contract will have a significant impact, raising the earning potential for other general managers in the industry.
What is the speaker's prediction for Tennessee's record this year?
-The speaker predicts a range of possible records for Tennessee, from 11-1 in the best-case scenario to 7-5 in the worst case, with a likely prediction of 9-3 or 10-2.
What is the significance of the bold predictions made by the speaker?
-The bold predictions are speculative and meant to provoke thought and discussion among fans, covering a range of potential outcomes for the college football season.
Outlines
🏈 Concerns and Predictions in College Football
The speaker begins by expressing concerns about making predictions too early in the college football season, hinting at potential adjustments. The setting is in downtown Nashville, Tennessee, on August 20th, 2024. The focus is on the five biggest Saturdays in college football, leading with the highly anticipated October 12th, which includes major matchups like Ohio State vs. Oregon, and Texas vs. Oklahoma. The speaker also mentions a recent take on Oklahoma by Colin Cowherd, which resurfaced and sparked reactions, and discusses personnel changes in college football, such as Courtney Morgan's raise at Alabama, affecting the industry.
📅 Analyzing Key College Football Dates
The speaker continues to break down significant dates in the college football calendar, emphasizing the importance of certain Saturdays for big games. November 9th in week 11 is highlighted for its matchups, including Georgia vs. Ole Miss and Alabama vs. LSU. The speaker also discusses the tradition of rivalry week in week 14, mentioning high-profile games such as Michigan vs. Ohio State. Additionally, the analysis includes week 9 and week 5 games, with a special focus on Georgia vs. Alabama on September 28th, considered a potential game of the year.
🚀 Sponsorship and Marketing Initiatives
The speaker discusses sponsorship and marketing efforts, particularly in relation to the 'Whole New Saturday Tour' fueled by Quick Trip. The narrative includes past experiences with guerrilla marketing tactics that led to a ban from College GameDay. The speaker encourages fans to engage with the show and Quick Trip, hinting at potential giveaways and special offers for fans who show support at games or use the Quick Trip app.
🤔 Reacting to Colin Cowherd's Take on Oklahoma
The speaker addresses Colin Cowherd's take on the Oklahoma Sooners, discussing whether Oklahoma could follow Nebraska's path of falling from a superpower to irrelevance. The speaker disagrees with Cowherd's application of the argument, stating that Oklahoma's recruiting is strong, especially in Texas, and that joining the SEC will actually benefit the program by exposing it to a wider audience. The speaker also emphasizes that the dynamics of college football are currently favorable to Oklahoma.
🎓 Back to School and Sporting Goods
The speaker transitions to discussing back-to-school preparations and the role of Academy Sports and Outdoors in providing necessary items for sports and outdoor activities. The speaker highlights the variety of products available and the convenience of shopping at Academy Sports and Outdoors or on their website.
🏟️ Predictions and Uncertainty in College Football
The speaker talks about the unpredictability of college football, using the example of Tennessee's performance and the need to adjust predictions. The speaker admits to making mistakes in previous predictions and announces an intention to revise them, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in sports analysis.
🏈 Tennessee's Football Prospects and Coaching Staff
The speaker provides an in-depth analysis of the Tennessee football team, discussing the potential of the offense, the strength of the defense, and the impact of key players like James Pierce. The speaker also evaluates the coaching staff, highlighting their strengths and potential areas of concern, and provides a prediction for Tennessee's season record, considering various factors such as the team's schedule and the new quarterback.
🤔 The Pressure of High Expectations
The speaker reflects on the pressure faced by coaches like Ryan Day of Ohio State, discussing the expectations and the narrative that has been built around him. The speaker emphasizes the importance of mental strength in handling external pressures and the need for coaches to focus on their own performance rather than public opinion.
💰 The Impact of Courtney Morgan's Contract Extension
The speaker discusses the significance of Courtney Morgan's contract extension with Alabama, highlighting its impact on the market for general managers in college football. The speaker predicts that this could lead to an increase in salaries for similar positions across the industry, as Morgan's deal sets a new precedent.
📈 The Changing Landscape of College Football Careers
The speaker talks about the evolving opportunities in college football, especially for those who may not have traditional coaching or playing backgrounds. The speaker identifies new pathways opening up for individuals with expertise in areas like finance, communication, and psychology, and predicts that we will see more non-traditional hires in high-profile roles within the sport.
🏉 Penn State's Season Outlook and Coaching Evaluation
The speaker provides an outlook for Penn State's football season, discussing the strengths of the team, particularly the defense, and the potential of the offense under a new coordinator. The speaker also evaluates the coaching staff, comparing them to other well-known coaches, and predicts a strong season for Penn State, possibly culminating in a playoff berth.
💫 Bold Predictions for the Upcoming Season
The speaker concludes with a series of bold predictions for the college football season, including the possibility of a four-loss team making it to the playoffs, the Big Ten securing twice as many playoff bids as the ACC and Big 12 combined, and Lenoir Ser becoming a Heisman contender. The speaker assigns a 'boldness' rating to each prediction, expressing skepticism about some outcomes while acknowledging the unpredictability of the sport.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡College Football
💡Predictions
💡Schedule Dynamics
💡Coaching Staff
💡Recruiting Class
💡Playoff Contender
💡General Manager (GM)
💡ACC
💡SEC
💡Bold Predictions
💡Heisman Contender
Highlights
The host expresses uncertainty and concern about predictions made too early in the season.
Discussion about the five biggest Saturdays in college football, emphasizing the importance of October 12th.
Mention of a recent take on Oklahoma by Colin Cowherd and plans to react to it on the show.
News about Courtney Morgan's significant raise at Alabama and its impact on the college football personnel industry.
The host's intention to adjust some predictions, acknowledging past mistakes and the flexibility to change picks.
Highlighting the new logo and teasing upcoming announcements that can't be spoken on yet.
A detailed analysis of the potential for Oklahoma to become the next Nebraska in college football dynamics.
The host's disagreement with Cowherd's take on Oklahoma's future in the SEC and the potential for the program.
A sponsored segment on Academy Sports and Outdoors, emphasizing their role in equipping fans for various sporting needs.
Predictions for Tennessee's season, discussing the team's strengths, weaknesses, and potential record.
Analysis of the ACC's chances of winning a national title and the limitations of its top teams.
Discussion on Ryan Day's importance for Ohio State and the perception of his coaching ability.
The impact of Courtney Morgan's contract extension on Alabama and the college football personnel market.
Predictions for Penn State's season, including potential wins, challenges, and the new offensive coordinator's influence.
The host's bold predictions for the season, including the possibility of a four-loss team making the playoffs.
A call to action for viewers to subscribe to the show and engage with the content on different platforms.
Transcripts
how about this three shows per week is
back now I know it looks like a brave
face but don't let the brave face fool
you guys I am moderately to severely
shaken I'm concerned and I'm concerned
because I think we did predictions too
early and I told Jesse this may happen
and we did it anyway now I wake up this
morning and I'm not really sure of
anything to the point where I think I
may need to adjust some things I don't
know if you've ever felt that before but
I feel it welcome in we're jam-packed
high at top a comfortable low dueo
downtown Nashville Tennessee Tuesday
August 20th the year of Our Lord
2024 five biggest Saturdays in the sport
this year we're leading the show with it
tonight everyone knows about October
12th hopefully all of you know about
October 12th but that's not it this is a
college football season so we like to
spread it around throughout the entire
year obviously any Saturday is a big
Saturday but some bigger than others
Colin cardd had a little take a while
back as it turns out on Oklahoma but it
mysteriously surfaced for many of us
today I had never heard it I heard it
today some asked what do you think about
it I don't know that we've done many
reactionary segments but there was
enough meat on the bone where I'm going
to react to it tonight how about that a
reaction segment Courtney Morgan got a
big time raise at Alabama that's the
general manager there and it kind of hit
the reset button on the college football
Personnel industry in the process now
some of that doesn't concern you a lot
of it actually does concern you and I'm
just going to try try to explain it also
team predictions got a couple more
tonight we're going to do Tennessee
we're going to do Penn State we've got
bold predictions we got all sorts of
things going on they're watching us in
suar Georgia Bloomington Indiana
Prescott Arizona Ames Iowa thank you so
much I led the show tonight with concern
I'm just going to go ahead and tell you
now I was going to save this for later
in the show I'm redoing my predictions
some of them are going to be the same
but there are some some mistakes that I
have made I think some minor Corrections
that need to be made so Circle your
calendar call your mimo text your mom
you know whatever you need to do
Thursday night sort of a prediction 2.0
around here and the Constitution says as
long as week zero hasn't started I can
change my pcks this coming from the same
guy I think who changed his predictions
in week six last year so really it's
nebulous at best at Lake kick Josh make
sure you're following those socials
we've been slowly leaking things many of
you noticed I haven't said a word about
it like this little logo over my back
here that's new I didn't say a word
about it but I promise you there are
some more things coming that I will soon
be able to speak on that I can't speak
on quite yet here's what I can't speak
on let's dive into the show me stack my
papers it's different than a paper pop
if you're new around here anytime you
hear that that paper pop that means
business is coming no this was just
paper stack I got a lot to get to
tonight what are the five biggest
Saturdays in college football this year
year I don't think anyone who has
glanced at their schedule can look past
October 12th October 12th is clearly the
monster Saturday of college football
season this year that's week seven for
those of you who like to keep track in
those terms this is the day where at the
same time or within about a six- hour
span Ohio state will go to Oregon ol
Miss will go to
LSU Penn State will go to us
and Texas will face Oklahoma in the
Cotton Bowl now those are just your four
Headliners I mean those are four like
grade a headline matchups this same day
in the SEC is Florida vers Tennessee day
this is also the same day that Kansas
State goes to face Dion in Colorado
Washington at Iowa Jed fish rolling into
Iowa City and then that bottom one there
if you're listening on podcast you can't
see this but those watching on YouTube I
got Syracuse at NC State now some are
looking at that saying why is that on
the list you need to understand your
schedule Dynamics here Syracuse does not
play all that tough a schedule this year
NC State's got a pretty navigable
schedule as well they could have much
better records than you think they'll
probably be capable of by this point so
just pay attention to that game now
that's one that's going to be talked
about okay October 12th is going to be
talked about a lot but what about four
more that I want to get get to few weeks
after that week 11 this is going deep
this is going into November now November
9th is week
11 oh this one's very very big as well
immunity Georgia adle Miss as the
preseason rankings sit that's a top six
matchup JP poll's not too far off of
that for the record so you got Georgia
at Old Miss Bama at LSU same day
Oklahoma at Missouri same day now of
course we're we're 11 weeks into the
season here so Oklahoma they've already
played Tennessee they've gone to Auburn
they've played Texas what's the record
at that point we don't know so all we
have to go on right now is preseason
rankings Florida's at Texas that day
again many of you don't expect Florida
to do much this year but all I can do is
I can tell you I've got Florida Power
rated as the 21st best team in the
country what you think their record's
going to be as irrelevant to how you
power rate the team so we're looking at
a couple of you know top 20 well one top
five team one top 20ish caliber team
there even if Florida isn't much to
write home about record-wise no one's
predicting that kind of upset for Texas
but yet it's a landmine sort of game and
that's the top of the card the mid card
on week 11 slate which I would argue is
not midc card at all it's just a little
bit further down um I can't claim we
were going alphabetically here either
you know what Florida State Notre Dame
is a really big game that's a top 10
match up in the preseason uh that's up
in South Bend Florida State playing in
Northern Indiana in early November just
keep an eye on that Washington's at Penn
State that day now that game could be
the white out game remember we've got
the greatest sport on the face of the
Earth we got the best traditions on the
face of the Earth Penn State's white out
is among the very best traditions in a
tradition Rich Sport and we've got
television networks paying hundreds of
millions to billions of dollars to
acquire the rights all so they can um
make the time slot such that we can't
get the Traditions it's wonderful anyway
so Washington may be the white out game
for Penn State Clemson's at Virginia
Tech that day now Virginia Tech has
already played who at this point they've
gone to Miami they've got some some
early season tests but there's no early
season test that Virginia fa or Virginia
Tech faces where you say nah they can't
get past that one Virginia Tech man they
could be in a situation where they're
contending for the ACC Championship and
Clemson comes to town Miami goes to
Georgia Tech that same day some of you
may be watching college football for the
first time in your lives welcome welcome
to the table we've got room for all I
need to tell you that Miami Georgia Tech
game if you want to go and make yourself
familiar with some stuff that happened
last year in absence of a much stronger
term just go check out the ending of
that Miami Georgia Tech game so that's a
loaded slate week 11's a loaded slate
later and this is rivalry weekend in
week 14 so of course I've got to fit
rivalry week in we had a debate
internally in the office today should we
even include rivalry week cuz that's
like a given and the answer was of
course we should include rivalry week
Michigan at Ohio State Texas at Texas
A&M there is pound-for-pound not a game
I'm looking forward to seeing more this
year then Texas going to Texas A&M not a
neutral sight game we're going into Kyle
Field for that one Oklahoma at LSU you
need to make yourself familiar with this
so this is the week where if you've got
a traditional rival you're playing them
but Oklahoma Texas happens in the middle
of the year so they're not playing each
other last week LSU doesn't have anyone
that they're going to traditionally be
paired with during rivalry week so all
of a sudden we get Oklahoma versus LSU
dropped in our lab we of course have
Notre Dame at USC dropped in our lap
we've got Florida at Florida State on
this day we've got South Carolina at
Clemson on this day we've got Auburn at
Alabama on this day and remember
Washington and Oregon played twice last
year Oregon 0 for two probably a
different Dynamic this year but again
that's why we play the games instead of
just predicting them on this interesting
material called paper next up all right
we get back into the heat of October
here October 26th is week nine so we're
a little bit deeper in the season here
as well Missouri's
got by my memory one game against a top
10 opponent preseason top 10 opponent
this year and it's this day it's
Missouri at Alabama Oklahoma goes to Old
Miss on this day you know when people
talk about old Miss they say oh they got
to play Georgia oh I got to go to LSU no
one really talks about oh just Oklahoma
coming into Oxford Florida State at
Miami is on this same day I mean that
could have ACC Championship implications
it has its own internal implication
baked in because it should be one of the
best rivalry games in college football
we talked about this a couple of shows
ago Nebraska's at Ohio State now you
know there are a lot of folks who think
Nebraska will be undefeated when they go
there and that's interesting because
it's not week two it's week nine so if
Nebraska's toen a a seven or8 and0
record into the
Horseshoe boy we haven't felt hype like
that around Nebraska since the 90s and
then on the undercard of week nine ruter
is at USC I don't want you laughing at
this because ruter has a very workable
schedule this year as well they got some
veteran leadership on that team it's
Greg shano in year three do your
research kids Penn State's at Wisconsin
this day I'm going to come back to that
one in a second just bookmark that LSUS
at Texas A&M and Kansas at Kansas State
and if I'm not mistaken Jesse Kansas
state is fresh off a trip to West
Virginia the week before one of the
bigger trap spots on their schedule okay
this Penn State Wisconsin game you know
we're really big on the buy Advantage SL
buy disadvantage Big Time buy Advantage
for Penn State here Penn State St is off
a buy so Penn State's rested they go on
the road Wisconsin is off of
back-to-back Road games I think one of
them's to ruter but most importantly the
week before they pay Penn State they go
to Washington so they got one of those
cross country trips Wisconsin never
takes the second leg of a back-to-back
Road stretch and then they come home to
play AR rested Penn State and by the way
Colin I doubt you just randomly have
Wisconsin schedule in there but I think
I have it up here there may not have
been a better year ever to be a
Wisconsin season ticket holder than this
year because you guys have you got
Oregon coming in there you got Penn
State coming in there you've got Alabama
coming in there and there are some folks
around here I was looking at NC State's
home schedule last night it's brutal
listen to this they get Bama at home
they get Penn State at home and they get
Oregon at home Minnesota to wrap up the
year on a Friday that is value that is
you you invest for a decade to get that
kind of home stretch now the South
Dakota tickets may be able to be had at
Bargain Basement prices Purdue comes in
there probably without a ton of fanfare
but still how about those big three all
right and lastly the last of the big
five weeks in college football this year
not that we limit it to five I would
like to take you to September 28th it's
week five Georgia's at Alabama could
very well be the game of the year it's
been the match match up uh along with
Ohio State Michigan that sort of has
defined the last few years in college
football Arizona at Utah is that day as
well Oklahoma State at Kansas state two
of the biggest games in the Big 12 are
both on this day September 28th
Louisville's at Notre Dame Notre Dame in
many people's estimations kind of play a
three-game season this year they open at
A&M they got FSU up there later in the
year they also get Louisville in there
so those are the three big games for
Notre Dame this year that's not all
though also in week five we've got
Arkansas at Texas A&M well not at Texas
A&M although I would contend Arkansas
needs to get out of this playing in
Arlington every year as quick as they
can and I think they are I think this
may be the last year you got Oklahoma at
Auburn that's the week after U has faced
Tennessee they go to Auburn that two
game stretch I think will serve to
Define what Oklahoma is this year vek is
at Miami on a Friday night
oh the possibilities there by the way if
you have if you have access to private
Aviation oh the possibilities Kentucky
at Old Miss is this day as well again I
just mentioned Oklahoma going to Oxford
Kentucky I think we've got them power
rated in the uh mid-20s in the JP poll
26th I believe just ho home no one's
talking about it I mean Old Miss is
viewed as having an extremely favorable
schedule and by SEC standards they do
they don't have an easy schedule there
there are two different concepts there
so those are the five weeks now I put
this out earlier tonight or earlier
today I asked you guys and I got all
kind of responses so this is college
football as many of you pointed out Miss
college football so if we've got a
Saturday I mean we only get 12 of them
per team we have to uh we have to
cherish them and cherish them we will
happy to have all of you
along we're going to be on the road
every week this fall uh that entire tour
will be fued by quick trip literally the
whole new Saturday tour will be fueled
by quick trip now you guys know in the
past when we've been on the road with
our tours whether it's the Renaissance
tour or the every given Saturday tour or
the Once Upon a Saturday tour or the
whole new Saturday tour this year you
know that we give away free stuff and we
we're sort of we're sort of aggressive
with the concept but like we're going to
Florida for our week one game Miami at
Florida that's our first stop on the
whole new Saturday tour our fueled by
quick trip
I I'll give some stuff away I may toss
some free tanks of gas I may throw an
academy gift card out there that's
that's been our modus operandi in the
past and then a couple of years ago so
just to give you a little backstory
couple of years
ago the um actually I'll tell you what
I'll do because I don't want the QR code
on the screen when I tell this story so
keep the QR code up this right here is
just the app that's the Quick Trip app
um I am strongly encouraging you guys to
download that number one because even if
you don't watch this this show you ought
to have the thing downloaded but number
two especially if you watch this show
there may soon be some very special
carve outs for you there all right now
few years back just a little quick story
here and then I'm going to get right
back into the show because I got to talk
about this Colin cardd Oklahoma thing
few years ago we were an upand cominging
college football show we were trying to
make a name for ourselves me and
director Colin were hanging out in the
old building and I said Colin you know
we have this whole Pate State sub brand
Under late kick H how can we how we go
full guerilla marketing with this and we
were like well we got fans out there
what if we encouraged them to show
support for the show publicly so we did
and I just made a little passing joke on
the show and I said some of you ought to
show up to college game day this
Saturday hold up a p State sign well the
problem is like 15 of you did it that
very Saturday and then we got banned
from college game day and ever since
then they have policed those signs and
you're not even allowed to take one on
the premises
now I gave you guys chalai of Supremacy
I gave you an academy gift card I have
it on good authority that the fine folks
at quick trip are even more about that
life than I am so while you may stand to
earn a free tank of gas if you you know
pose at quick trip and tag me on Twitter
and I see it I may toss you a free tank
of gas these folks are probably willing
to give away a little bit more than just
a free tank of gas if you get quick trip
sign signage on the set of college game
day now that's out of my control okay
this is like a non-sanctioned match in
Old School Attitude Era WWE um I can't
say that I encouraged it because legally
it could get me in trouble but I also am
not going to discourage it and if you
read between the lines then you read
between the lines but no matter what you
do before kickoff understand that when
the games kickoff on Saturday and we're
there throughout the year it's fueled by
quick trip we appreciate them all right
what is happening in the state of
national media as it as it relates to
the Oklahoma Sooners I I don't do
segments like I'm about to do very often
mainly because I don't listen to anyone
else talk about the sport um not because
I don't like them it's because I don't
want it to to um poison or influence our
show let me put it that way as a result
I end up saying what someone else said
before and have no idea they said it and
then I get accused of of regurgitating
things and that's not a good thing but
that's okay
an exception is going to be made tonight
Colin here's your
endpoint so all of a sudden today a
whole bunch of people for whatever
reason started tagging this take that
Colin coward had in June of
2023 about Oklahoma I did not hear it at
the time I had no idea he said it for
some reason it just popped up in
everyone's feed today mine included so a
lot of you asked me can you talk about
it on the show sure I'll talk about it
it's a very atypical segment for our
show but I'll talk about it cuz I I
think that there is some proper logic in
the points that he made but I think
there is some very improper application
like I think he flat out whiffed on the
spirit of the take but yet I think some
of the tones like some of the themes
woven into it make total sense so I'm
about to have Colin play to Colin direct
Colin play two pieces of sound the first
one just to let you know I'm going to
Tee It Up he had been talking about
Nebraska how Nebraska used to be a
superpower and then Nebraska kind of got
left behind as the sport changed and so
Nebraska went from being a superpower to
being irrelevant on the national
championship scene because what used to
work for Nebraska no longer worked for
Nebraska and his entire premise was
could Oklahoma be the next Nebraska so
again this is from June of
2023 so keep in mind now he had just
seen Lincoln Riley come off or not
Lincoln Riley he had seen him leave he
had seen Brent vinales come off a six
and seven season so he had not seen the
double- digit win season that is to come
but a lot of the evidence was already
there and maybe he was just seeing it
differently so is Oklahoma going to be
the next Nebraska is the premise Colin
rollet keep your eye on
Oklahoma is Oklahoma going to be the
second program in our adult lives that
disappears number
one the state no longer produces big
numbers of players of the sooner 26 SES
in their recruiting class three are from
the state of Oklahoma that's having to
convince kids in the
South convince kids in Texas come to us
secondly they joined a tougher
conference like Nebraska this is going
to be harder most of those Southern kids
have grown up on the SEC those football
players want to stay with traditional
SEC powers and number three in an
offense Vera they hired a defensive
coach and he was completely utterly over
his skis they didn't get the coach
right
so man I I think he nailed it and
whiffed completely all at one time so
let's break this down for just a
second the lack of instate Talent is a
total misnomer Oklahoma if they wanted
to could go land 25 kids in the state of
Oklahoma there probably AR 25 kids in
the state of Oklahoma to the level
needed to commit to Oklahoma but don't
misunderstand now there absolutely are
fewer players of that caliber in the
state of Oklahoma per year than there
are Georgia than there are Florida then
there are
Texas that is a a gross misunderstanding
of the situation when it comes to
Oklahoma recruiting you want to talk
about the lack of instate Talent it's
true but it's also irrelevant I'll tell
you why because if you know anything
about the Red River and south of it down
to Dallas Oklahoma owns that area every
bit as much as Texas does in recruiting
Oklahoma kills it in Texas specifically
the Dallas area Oklahoma in the 2023
recruiting class had 13 states
represented in the 2024 Class 12 States
represented Brent venables has been a
top 10 recruiter every year he's been at
Oklahoma so the reason they don't land a
ton of kids in Oklahoma is not a bad
thing the reason they don't land them is
because
they can go elsewhere and get better
players because this is not Georgia this
is not Alabama they do have to broaden
their net and the follow-up is they do
it they do it very well they do it
exceptionally well in Texas so the lack
of instate Talent represented on the
roster is is totally irrelevant to what
the quality of team is uh they've also
landed two top 10 portal classes in the
past three Cycles wenton got a big- Time
defensive tackle that LSU wanted badly
to choose Oklahoma over LSU this this
last cycle and also man if you follow
recruiting if you're really in the weeds
of this stuff state lines do matter but
state lines have never mattered less
than they matter now in recruiting in
the portal nil and also Advanced Digital
and social media age the world's never
felt smaller the country you know the
map has never felt smaller state lines
have never been less relevant to where a
a recruit wants to go uh in the old
school in the '90s and the 2000s it
meant something to cross the the chattah
huchi river or to cross the Red River
now it's just dude I play Xbox with that
guy from that city called Tulsa all the
time and I'm from Denton I I that you
don't even think about them being two
different states the way a kid in 1995
would that's the first thing the second
thing is playing in a tougher conference
Oklahoma's going to a tougher conference
that's true and if that turns you off
you're not going to be the head coach at
Oklahoma to begin with more on that in a
second but
secondly there's a tradeoff to joining a
tougher conference and that trade-off as
it relates to Talent acquisition is all
of a sudden your games are on in Florida
and Georgia and the Carolinas and
Mississippi and Louisiana and Alabama
every Saturday they care about you down
there because they're going to have to
play you therefore the kids in those
states are exposed to your brand more
than willing to go play at Oklahoma
Oklahoma fits the SEC profile like a
glove this is not some oil and water
situation and thirdly hiring a defensive
coach in an offens
era um how about go hire the right coach
hiring the right coach is the key you
know Georgia hired the right coach they
couldn't have cared less that he's
defensive minded Oregon's hired the
right one they couldn't care less he's
defensive minded I'd also encourage
folks to take a look at the regression
back to the middle of overall style of
college football points per game have
decreased the last couple of years so if
anything you saw an explosion but you
didn't see a Perma Trend towards offense
over defense in this sport um take take
a look at who won the national title
last year by the way and how they did it
and also there's probably nobody that
knows their head coach better than the
folks inside the building at Oklahoma
know their head coach I point that out
because they just extended him they've
seen all they need to see they already
extended Briton venables so I understand
now I understand where Colin coward's
going on that I understand completely
that if you're not careful The Winds of
Change in this sport can leave you
behind that's true it's just not going
to victimize Oklahoma it's not in the
process of doing it it will not do it
now there was a second part to this so
I'm I'm gonna have colun it up and I'll
react to it on the back end and why did
Lincoln Riley leave because he was
joining the SEC looked at it looked at
the bamas and the georgas and the LSUS
and the floridas and those States and
those kids and their
leanings in USC was wide
open by the way you think Lincoln Riley
didn't have a gut feeling
somehow some way kind of felt Oklahoma
to the SEC was going to be a hard pull
you go into Alabama and Georgia and
LSU's backyard welcome to SEC
football let me grant you all that just
for the sake of time and argument let's
say everything he just suggested there
is true you could have multiple truths
in the room here you could have the
truth that Lincoln Riley was excellent
at Oklahoma it could also be that
Lincoln Riley was not the guy to take
this program into this conference both
of those things could be true you know a
third thing could be true and that's
they had the right guy on speed dial the
entire time and it's the current head
coach at Oklahoma Brent venables this is
not some guarantee of anything just like
there's no guarantee that Lincoln Riley
is going to get it served up to him on a
silver platter when he goes to USC
because it hasn't happened there you
know if if you've got any reservations
about your ability to recruit in the SEC
you don't need to be the head coach at
Oklahoma if you've got any reservations
about your style working in the SEC you
don't need to be the head coach of
Oklahoma and there's nothing wrong with
that okay you go your way they'll go
their way but I just want you to
remember this year five years down the
road I want you to remember For Better
or For Worse there was no massive
coaching search here there was no broad
net cast across the country Lincoln
Riley left it stunned them they dusted
themselves off and a few days later they
had Brent venables in Norman and that
was it it's one of the most button-down
athletic departments it's one of the
strongest cultures in college athletics
multiple Sports and they've they've got
their act together they went and got who
they wanted they had him handpicked
they've already extended his contract so
the logic tracks here the logic that if
you're not careful Dynamics in college
football can change and leave you behind
totally accurate it's happened before he
pointed out that it's happened before
there there are there's a sweet spot
that college football can have you in
any given point uh the texases and
Alabam and Ohio States will always be
there there is no change that's going to
come to this sport as he pointed out
earlier in that segment that's going to
leave them behind there are changes that
could come to the sport that could do
the kind of things that happen to
Nebraska so The Sweet Spot of college
football does change some will always be
in it um Oklahoma's just one of them
Oklahoma's going to be at the head table
of college football for a long time
Oklahoma is at the head table of college
football they've been there for a long
time and they will be there for a long
time there is no seismic shift in this
sport that's doing anything other than
tilting the table a little bit further
in the direction of Oklahoma I I would I
would actually counter the argument and
make the counter that the sport is more
favorable the Dynamics in college
football are more favorable to Oklahoma
now than they have been over the past 20
years and over the past 20 years they've
been one of the best programs in the
country so I get the logic man but I
totally disagree with the application of
it I will agree with you however or I
will agree to disagree with you happily
if we're doing it at Academy Sports and
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right now it is August 20th so I know a
lot is changing if you've got kids
especially A lot's changing in your life
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and Outdoors and academy.com all right
let's predict some stuffff we've got
bold predictions on the back end of this
show tonight but first what's
Tennessee's record going to be this year
lot of bubbling momentum around this
program at least if you take my word for
it well here's what you need to know
about Tennessee this year their over
under wi total has been interesting at
FanDuel it was eight and a half then it
shot up to n and a half now it's come
back down to eight and a half now of
course you got to lay a lot more to bet
that over than you do the under it's
heavily Juiced to the
over seventh best odds to win the
SEC 12th best dos to win the whole thing
the college football playoff so it's a
deep conference at least in preseason
terms in the SEC this year let's talk
about what we think we know I think I
know these things about Tennessee I
think I know the offense will be much
closer to the 20122 version than last
year's version I expect the passing game
to scale significantly they had the best
passing game in the country best points
per game in the country in 2022 last
year points per game they were tied for
30 th yeah that's going up niiko malava
don't need to have seen him start a
whole year to know he's a stud at least
enough to make that number go up
significantly I think their run game
will always be good under Josh hpel one
of the great misnomers about Josh hpel
is it's just this shot offense it's just
this this like air raid uh for verts
every play Mike Leech passing off it's
not that it's not that they run the ball
consistently run the ball got one of the
best rushing games in the country every
year and yet people get amnesia and they
totally forget about that the second
thing I think I know about Tennessee
James Pierce on the edge for them
probably one of the best players in the
country preseason All-American maybe the
top Edge player in America this year and
at the very least he's up there and
vying for that and there are probably
some impact players in this team that
are on the defensive side that you
wouldn't expect because everyone thinks
offense when they think Tennessee one of
the big questions we have about this
team is about the other side opposite
James Pierce we'll talk about that in a
second a third thing I think I know is
this program has
major scale up energy about it right now
and uh that doesn't necessarily impact
their win loss record what it does is it
puts them in position to where if they
win 10 or 11 games if they have a great
year if they have another special year
like they did year before
last uh they could really be Off to the
Races I think they already are I think
this year's result will just further
bolster that but I know a lot of you
aren't as bullish on Tennessee as I am
so a lot of you have to see it to
believe it that's fine here's what I
want to know I want to know how they're
going to backfill losing all these
pieces in the secondary they lost like
between 150 and 200 starts in the
secondary last year um to this year they
lost five of six guys back there and
they also lost Jordan Thomas Early in
Fall camp and he was probably running as
the one at Nicholls for them so not only
are they replacing a lot of guys who
left from last year they've already had
injury strike that group this year
that's the first thing because there's a
big difference in having to you know be
first to 40 every week because you
you've got the same problems this year
that LSU secondary had last year there's
a big difference between that and not
being a great pass defense but being
plenty serviceable enough are they going
to be the former or the latter another
thing that I want to know how many
difference makers are on this team how
many game Breakers are on this team we
look past quarterback for this because
every every quarterback's going to
directly impact the game in a big way
one way or the other Brew McCoy still on
this team squirrel white still on this
team they went and got brazzil the
transfer wide receiver from two lane
Arian Carter linebacker you know Elijah
Herring linebacker there are a lot of
guys who are former big names in
recruiting very talented do we have any
game Breakers because the third thing
that I want to know is um well it's kind
of bleeds into the second thing
I know I've got James Pierce I know he
fits this description do I have anyone
on the opposite side of that defensive
line that can do that or or is all the
attention on him all right now the third
thing I want to
know niik malava physically has all the
traits you need Josh hpel and his staff
fully believe in him there's always an
adjustment period in this game
especially if you're in a big 10 or an
SEC environment where you got a lot of
really highly paid coaches a lot of deep
coach coaching staffs a lot of analysts
off the field with a lot of time on
their hands and they're just focused on
you and if you're a firste starter
you're making your first go around the
SEC a lot of really really good football
minds are singularly focused on stopping
you and sometimes they succeed which
begs the question how good is niiko am
malava at adjusting to the League's
adjustments it's no different than a Big
League hitter when he comes up and he
starts hot and then all of a sudden they
figure out wow off speed low and end he
can't handle for some reason either
Yanks it foul or he's over the top of it
so let's just pepper him with that until
he shows that he can adjust now
sometimes they do adjust hands inside
the ball middle away we're good
sometimes they don't adjust and
sometimes you're back down in Triple A
after you were on the cover of Sports
Illustrated the prior month and you're
like what happened sometimes that
happens with quarterbacks as well so
that's the great unknown with any guy
who gets his first chance to start the
coaching staff here really interesting
really dangerous and underrated coaching
staff so hyp the model has graded as a
top 25 head coach but hyle is a 4.5 star
offensive coordinator if you just look
at him as an offensive coordinator he's
right up there with some of the best in
the country he has got an insanely good
offensive support staff it is top five
in the country the defensive support
staff is top half of the SEC now Tim
Banks is the defensive coordinator there
model has him raded low if you said
there's a weakness on the coaching staff
relatively speaking it would be the
defensive coordinator position but he
had a really good 2023 um his 2023 if he
were to duplicate that again you're no
longer using that terminology about him
this is not my opinion by the way I'm
sharing this is model output this
thing's blind it has no emotion it
doesn't even know where Knoxville
Tennessee is uh this is a top 15 staff
and it's a top 15 recruiting staff the
one through 11 especially so the
traditional onfield guys that is top 15
in the country and top 15 recruiting in
the country that's very underrated
people don't think about Tennessee like
that uh there's some folks there's some
coaching staffs out there that you guys
would rank above them that in reality do
not belong above them and then if you
pop another 10 or 11 win season and you
also get to backload with the new NCA
coaching rules with off the field guys
all of a sudden being on the field it's
only going to get deeper what about the
schedule here it's one of the best draws
which is ironic because they play
Alabama and
Georgia but it's still one of the best
draws so follow me here they only play
three teams in the JP poll top 25 now
they are really good teams they go to
Oklahoma in week four it's one of my
circle games I can't wait for that one
it's Josh hyper going back to Norman
Tennessee's first time on the road this
year in a true Road environment it's
Oklahoma's first SEC game I think so
that one's going to be really good but
look at week two I was on packed pride
with those guys on the radio show last
night we spent a fair amount of time
talking about this game Tennessee folks
SEC folks do not focus on that week two
game that is like one of two Super Bowls
for NC State this year they're looking
at that one in Charlotte it's a neutral
site game against Tennessee and they're
looking at the Clemson game and they
think if they can split there they got a
pretty reasonable shot of challenging
for an ACC championship appearance um so
don't catch yourself in Ambush mode
there Tennessee will be well represented
over there it won't be like some hostile
environment no more so than it'll be for
NC State but that is not one to just
look at and go huh dub and then move on
that is this is not the NC State team to
think that way especially because the
wide receiver core they have over there
they believe is the best they've had in
a long time they got a very very veteran
transfer quarterback and your secondary
is your biggest question mark right now
so be very careful with that NC State
game I feel like we just broke the game
down um they go to Oklahoma in week four
again like I said that is one of my
circle games of the year best case
record for Tennessee this year 11- one
if everything comes together for him
there is absolutely an 11- one on this
slate the worst case I think is seven
and five so what do we predict I was way
way way between 9 and three and 10 and
two because I have a firste starter at
quarterback questions in the second
secondary and I do play at Georgia and I
do play Alabama and I do play Florida at
home I've got at Oklahoma I've got that
weird neutral sight game there I think
there's enough uncertainty for me to
predict nine and
three it is very very close to 10- two
and um 10-2 has them in the playoff
there's a world where nine and3 has
Tennessee in the playoff so this is very
much on the precipice sort of a seesaw 9
and three 10- two for me I've got him
14th in the preseason J people so
everything's on the table for Tennessee
11- one wouldn't shock me 10- two 9 and
three that's kind of where I would
predict the record all right let's move
right along I got a lot of folks
watching live thank you guys so much
make sure it's that time I do this about
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then get five of your friends to do the
same question from one of you Corey hit
me up he said it seems like in this new
power two power four World we're in that
you are down on the ACC as a whole on a
scale from one to 10 does the ACC have a
legitimate chance of winning a national
title this year I'm not sure how I'd
rate it on a scale of 1 to 10 I'd say no
I don't think they have a national
championship Contender over there now
that's way different than playoff
Contender okay we're no longer in the
four team era you're guaranteed to have
one team in the playoff I think the ACC
is going to have two teams in the
playoff that's my prediction so it's
it's not a playoff Contender you're
asking me do I look at one of these
teams and say that one right there I
legit could see winning the national
title I can't see a team from this
conference winning winning the national
title I'm going to walk you through why
I think that way it's a very lofty
conversation okay at
Clemson there's enough question for me
around K kumnick and Garrett Riley in
year two here I mean there's a lot of
Promise love those two young receivers
they've brought in but then if I get in
the playoff and I got to run through a
string of of Texas and then Notre Dame
and then Georgia if I got to run up
against Alabama if I see Ohio State or
Oregon multiples of those I mean is my
offensive line where it needs to be is
my ground game where it needs to be can
my young receivers get separation
against those defensive backs can I win
several of those games I don't think
Clemson can if they're there I don't
think they can Florida State Mike norell
thinks the world of the DNA of his team
and I agree I I'm blindly taking his
word for that but you're going to have
to show me at Florida State that you've
replaced that Talent you've lost enough
to where not not only can you win the
ACC and make the playoff but you could
go win three games and win the whole
thing win the national title you're
going to have to show me that DJ OU
angal winning a national title you being
able to ask him to win a couple of games
for you against the best of the best
that wide receiver core being able to
step up and them get separation and them
make big plays and change games have a
dynamic enough offense that that is
something I'd have to see to believe
Miami ironically if we're talking about
Talent profiles can Wards got the best
chance to end up being Elite enough up
their pass rush has probably as good a
chance as any of being able to be elite
and gamebreaking enough they've got good
running back depth they've got receivers
like Restrepo and then guys that can
work Downstream of him got the kid from
Houston that could be a breakout star
the talent profile from Miami probably
strikes me as one that's more likely to
do it but you're talking about having to
bridge a gulf from under a achievement
for years and years and years to all of
a sudden in one year you're in the
playoff and you go win the whole thing
again that's a bridge too far for me I
can't see Miami doing it I can't see
Florida State doing it I can't see
Clemson doing it solid teams we're
talking about going and beating Oregon
in Ohio State we're talking about going
beating Bama and Georgia and Texas these
teams I don't think are going to do that
this year and not just beating one of
them you got to beat like several of
them that's the whole point next up
where have we heard this question before
boy no one's no one has broached this
subject mark from Korn Wisconsin Ryan
day is turning into the boy who cried
wolf how important is 2024 for him and
the perception of his coaching ability
does something happen if he can't win
this year mark what do you mean by can't
win does he does he have to win one game
nine games does they have to win the
whole thing I I always have to nail you
guys down on this cuz like you use this
nebulous terminology and the rule around
here is only I should be allowed to do
that yes we all agree there
so uh I don't have to answer this
question mark I went up to Columbus Ohio
a few months ago and I just asked Ryan
Day for myself I asked him about
pressure I asked him about not being
able to beat Michigan three years in a
row what needs to change so we kind of
went and addressed it with the man
himself roll it Colin you talk about
chasing the 1% a lot and you guys have
put up just an insane win loss record
here and then there have been big
moments where you haven't followed
through on it like you want
to um internally I know there are a
million layers to the way you eval
yourself and your organization outside
it's just did you win the game or did
you not win the game does it does it
strike you how crazy it is the complete
validation that's praised upon you if
you win the last game of the season
versus the total indictment it is on
your program if you lose it and you got
a bunch of humans in this building how
do you block that out and make sure
folks you know keep the racehorse
blinders on and understand yeah we lost
here it should feel terrible but there
are specific reasons why instead of just
we suck burn it down let's start over
from scratch I think you have to enhance
the things that are going well and then
address the things that need to get
addressed and identify the right things
that need to get fixed and I think that
goes back to making sure you have the
right guys on the right seat making sure
you have you know enough uh experience
in the locker room uh because you we
have to win games in the fourth quarter
we have to win games at the end of the
year and usually you're doing that with
guys who are you know 21 22 23 years old
that's just the truth and so uh that was
important I think the other part is
making sure the staff is exactly what we
needed to be and hiring chip was a big
deal you know it really allowed you know
me some opportunity to make sure that
I'm overseeing everything especially
with everything going on in college
football right now um but it's you know
uh like you said you know you have to
identify the things that are going well
and then fix the things and and this job
isn't for the faint of heart you know
you can be a player two away and you
know feel like you're right on that that
cusp but you got to make hard decisions
you got to make hard calls because
that's what needs to be done to make
sure that you know our team is in the
right situation to win all these
games all right so it's been like three
and a half minutes now but if I remember
correctly Colin if I remember correctly
Jesse the
question alleged that Ryan day could
turn into the boy who cried wolf and to
be honest I have no clue what this means
I think I know what you think it means
what you think you were saying is Ryan
Day keeps writing the headlines about
himself Ryan day keeps voting his team
number one Ryan day keeps picking his
team to win the national title well Ryan
day doesn't do any of that I do you do
they do we do so um if I pick Ohio State
to do something like win the national
title which I did last year and they
don't win it yeah Ryan day didn't get it
done but I'm the one whose pick fell
through so I cried wolf he didn't cry
wolf he he may have yelled at Lou Holtz
in a postgame press conference which I
still wouldn't apologize for if I were
him but he didn't cry wolf so that's
what he actually says Ryan day doesn't
do a whole lot of these sit down 10 101s
he's done two of them with us this this
spring and summer um and I appreciate
the access that he gives us I appreciate
the answers he gives us you know what
else he say I didn't have time to run it
later in that segment he said if I don't
get it done here they'll fire me and
they'll go get someone else to do it I
don't shy away from the pressure of this
job these are things he talked about if
you haven't watched that if you're an
Ohio State fan or or you're just
interested in the way these guys think
we've got like 40 minutes with him from
the spring go go search it on the
YouTube channel it was one of the best
visits and sitd downs we did they were
great up there gave us full access and I
think a really eye-opening interview
with Ryan day so then fast forward back
back here so they're they're going to be
preseason number one or number two
wherever you look they're going to be
picked to win the Big 10 they're going
to be picked to go to the playoff maybe
win at all I will Echo that I'm going to
pick them to do some of those
things look here's what I'll say there
um I think there's a total disconnect in
understanding the world those coaches
live in which is not to say there's not
pressure on them which is not to say
Ryan day doesn't need to get the job
done all of those things are true what
I'm just saying is um and what I've
observed about these guys is there are
some
coaches excuse let me back up what I've
observed about these coaches and I'm
around a lot of them is they all say
they don't care what the public says
about
them only some of them mean it so you
got to determine like who are you if
you're Ryan day if you're any of these
guys do you say you don't care about
what other folks think or do you
actually not care about what other folks
think because he's got a worldclass
program in Columbus Ohio they may have
the best Talent roster in America this
year they're going to be picked to do a
lot of big things they should be picked
to do a lot of big things they have come
up short the last few years not far off
but they've come up short they hadn't
finished the job that they set out to do
and it's because they weren't good
enough so is that a reflection of him
well ultimately the entire organization
is but there's a big difference you know
in being on rung nine of a 10 rung
ladder versus being on rung two the
difference I think is the perception a
lot of people have is you're either on
the top rung or the Bottom Rung there's
like no in between which has always been
dumb to me but the the attitude that you
have if you don't care about what other
folks think is you just run your race
you just coach your team you just run
your program and if you fail you get
back up like he just talked about and
you apply the lessons you learned and
then over time it's no different than
succeeding in business a lot of you own
businesses did you knock it out of the
park in year one or year two even if you
had advantages baked in maybe so maybe
not
did you keep making the same mistakes
over and over again that's what makes
you a failure I don't I don't I can't I
can't wait to see how this season plays
out because I think that there are not
only some staff changes he made there
man I think there are
some
philosophical uh slight course
Corrections not wholesale changes but
just a little tweak here a little shift
there a little little angle correction
there to where Ohio State football just
looks like a little more streamline
version a little more sledg Amish
version of itself than it has in the
past but here's the followup to that the
downside of it this is not about Ryan
day but this is just in general the
second you care about what other folks
think you're done you're on your way to
becoming one of them you're on your way
to talking into a mic for a living or
you're on your way to having to pay to
attend games or maybe they'll give you a
sideline pass and you come and you're
honored for what you once did for this
program but here's the way it works it
it infects your mind because what
happens is not only are you making
split-second decisions not only are you
making very pivotal decisions whether it
be a hire whether it be who to start
whether it be how to tweak your strength
and conditioning program not only are
you doing that but there's this little
voice in the back of your head and it
asks what will writers at the Columbus
Post Dispatch say about this what will
guys over on the 11 Warriors or butt
nuts Message Board say about this what's
Zach Smith going to say about this
tomorrow what is the entire media
ecosystem in Columbus going to say
you're done you are screwed if you ever
think like that it poisons your mind and
so the big question about Ryan Day the
big question about any head coach at any
point at Ohio State is not will he have
the resources they all will it's not
will they have the talent to a certain
degree they all will it's are you the
right guy for the job I think the answer
is yes with Ryan day then part two is
mentally from the neck up are you wired
to shut that stuff out and just run race
if he does they will win a National
Championship at Ohio State I've got very
little doubt about it because I think
he's good enough I think they're well
resourced enough I think they're in
perfect position that is not always the
way the sport works though it's not Xbox
it's the real world and there are
consequences to letting the outside
noise affect you how will this season
play out well tune in Thursday because
I'll make my final prediction so at
least you'll see what I think they're
watching us in Charlotte North Carolina
they're watching us in Eagle River Al
Alka a market I have always said is
untapped in the college football front
and they're watching us in Covington
Georgia thank you so much uh let's let's
boy how about this news last night out
of
Tuscaloosa um how many of you know who
Courtney Morgan is Die Hard fans do
maybe some of the more not the Casual
fans maybe some of the more casual
minded fans maybe the Saturday only
crowd maybe you don't know who that is
Lucas from Huntsville hit me up he said
what do you think are the ramifications
for Alabama giving their general manager
Courtney Morgan such a huge extension
they're big man huge So Courtney
Morgan's the GM at Alabama he came with
kayin dbor from Washington just signed a
new three-year deal
825k per year I saw this breaking news
from Matt Zenit last night just another
Z bomb in a world of breaking news I saw
this news and probably within the next
five minutes I had texts from three
different general managers at three
different major programs two of them
just sent the champagne emoji and a
third one sent words that were T out to
popping champagne and the reason is
because Courtney Morgan just got paid
and Courtney Morgan just got all of them
paid it was a landmark it was like a
watershed moment for people at the head
of personnel departments because for a
long time there's been this kind of
sport imposed ceiling on what your max
earnings potential could be there well
that thing's been shattered nine ways
from Sunday so now it's anyone's guess
this is like I remember back in the day
Albert Bell we once did a segment in my
elementary school class Albert Bell was
the first $10 million per year Major
League Baseball guy I think Mike Smith
once once upon a time way back in the
day before my time was the first million
dollar per year earner and everybody had
the same conversation how could these
guys be paid this much it's just a
sport well how much does Aaron judge
make now he makes like 10 million a
month now so people uh let me tell you
two things first off I don't think
people appreciate what Alabama's pulling
off here Bama had the best in the world
Bama had the best of all time there for
a decade and a half when you lose him
it's supposed to be like pivoting the
Titanic in Moon Lake in Phoenix City
Alabama it's supposed to be a lot more
difficult than this you're not supposed
to just at at the drop of a hat Nick
Sabin retired I'm going to go get a top
three head coach in college football
he's going to bring his All-Star general
manager with him we're going to retain
outside of Caleb DS Isaiah Bond a couple
of guys ironically enough picture there
outside of a couple of guys we're going
to retain our roster we're going to get
one of them to transfer back who left us
for Iowa and we're going to proceed to
go lock down a top three recruiting
class just like that we're also not
going to react to the market we're just
going to go set the Market Alabama
shouldn't be doing this no program
should be doing this when you've got
Nick Sabin the trade-off to having Nick
Sabin is logic tells you once you lose
Nick Sabin there's going to be a dry run
and there's going to be some rot and
there's going to be some laziness and
there's going to be some entitlement and
F folks who have not had to think for
themselves for a long time or having to
learn to think for themselves and in
reality that is not it that's not it at
Alabama so they're pulling off something
they shouldn't be able to pull off here
now as for Courtney Morgan so B's paying
Courtney Morgan over 800 Grand a year
now why so much C he controls the roster
there and roster is the beginning and
ending of this sport I don't care how
good your coaching staff is if they
don't have players you don't have a job
for long so right now Bama not only do I
want you to look at the team they were
able to retain once those guys walked in
the building for this year look at the
recruiting class they're in the process
of putting together for the upcoming
cycle and Cycles moving forward some of
you some of you disagreed with me last
night and said oh bam would be fine no
matter what you're wrong you're wrong I
I just I know what's going on you're
wrong about that no they wouldn't bam be
fine fine is not the standard in
Tuscaloosa Alabama like what are we
talking about eight and four finishing
the top 25 in recruiting yeah they could
do that a ham sandwich could do that at
Alabama uh they had one they had several
of them between the Bear Bryant era and
with a early 90s exception the Nick sain
era they don't want fine that's not the
standard there anymore so Courtney
Morgan gets paid what he's paid and you
you either got one of two reactions to
that either you say 800 grand for a
general manager what are we doing or you
say uh yeah that won't be a headline in
two years because in two years because
of Courtney Morgan being paid 800 he'll
probably already have been bumped up
again and there'll be three seven figure
Pere earners and then there'll be 10
seven figure Pere earn earners
everybody's GM will be paid that I mean
that's real Power by the way in any Walk
of Life in any
industry a lot of guys can get
themselves paid only a few of them can
get a bunch of their peers paid Courtney
Morgan just got a bunch of his peers
paid he knows kayin debor system inside
and out he knows his way of doing things
that's one reason to pay him that
connectivity to players relatability to
players that's another reason to pay him
that roster retention and talent
acquisition and understanding both of
those markets inside and out I mean
intimately being ahead of the game kind
of seeing around the corner instead of
reacting that's another reason to pay
him that you can't be reactionary man
you you just lost the best of all time
you can't afford to be reactionary I
mean you you had a guy who built Alabama
into what it is today he set the
standard he stepped down in his prime he
didn't wait until the program eroded and
and this cultural rot had set in on the
back end like some other
respectably some other icons have done
in the past he built a monster he
stepped down while it was still a
monster he tossed the keys kayin bour
grabbed him out of the air said Courtney
Morgan you're coming with me to
Tuscaloosa he comes with him big time
offers come immediately I'm telling you
Southern Cal came after him hard
Courtney Morgan grew up in La by the way
and he turned it down to stay there
that's why you pay him what you're
paying him you don't keep up with the
market at Alabama you set the market you
are the market that's the the way it's
been for a long time so if you're going
to keep getting what you've been getting
you have to continue being what you've
been this is part of it you don't you
don't count pennies like you don't you
don't save a couple hundred grand here
and there when it comes to something as
valuable and quintessential as roster
roster everything in this sport now
here's another thing that I think is
very very appealing to many people in
this audience some of you love everybody
who's listening loves this sport
everybody every one of you who are
listening me included we love college
football I've never coached this sport
most of you have not coached the sport
or if you have you haven't coached it at
a high level so very very few people in
this audience look and immediately see a
path for themselves to one day working
at Kentucky or working at Texas A&M or
working at Michigan
State but I'm telling you doors are
opening every day and I I recognize it
because it's been happening in my
business I wouldn't be sitting here 15
years ago but I'm sitting here now C the
game changed in media and all of a
sudden in the mid-20s couple of barriers
got broken down in the way of overhead
and distribution you used to need
multi-million dollar Studios you used to
need BigTime Legacy Media distribution
and networking deals for your voice to
ever resonate from Seattle to Miami and
LA to New York now you just need to to
be good enough and have internet and if
you are good enough you can build your
own audience that changed 10 years ago
so here we are college football is
changing and college football all of a
sudden is evolving into a sport that now
has not only niche-based roles but huge
front-facing High earning positions for
guys that may or may not have played the
game may or may not have coached the
game I was on a stage with Courtney
Morgan two weeks ago in Nashville and we
were doing a panel and I asked him uh
about what had happened in his life to
prepare him to be the GM in Alabama 80%
of what he talked about had nothing to
do with football I mean he's worked in
all kinds of different Avenues totally
outside the game some of you are in that
position right now and you may or may
not love your job but you'd really love
to work inside college football if
you're brilliant with numbers if you're
if you're brilliant with Finance if
you're brilliant with uh communication
if you're if you're brilliant with
psychology there all kinds of different
Avenues opening up this is just another
example of it that are
gateways non-traditional very new age
gateways for some of you who love this
sport but you've always had to watch it
from outside the fence to to knock down
the fence and get inside and find your
spot it's there I'm telling you it is it
has never been there in a greater abund
abundance now and in the future than it
is today so it's a very interesting time
this is going to get a lot of people
paid uh this is this is going to be a
headline that people laugh at being a
big deal five years from now all the
BigTime GMS will be seven figure per
year earners five years from now I got
another take for you I think one of
these dudes is going to end up being the
head coach of a team maybe not a team as
high-profile as Alabama someone out
there is going to Value this position
and someone out there is going to think
they can overspend at the coordinator
spots to the point where their head
coach doesn't need to check the
traditional boxes that a head coach once
checked someone in an experimental
fashion is going to try that I don't
know when I don't know where but a guy
that today you would call a GM or a
director of player Personnel someone's
going to make that person a head coach
one day not an Alabama but a second or
third tier program and I we'll just see
how it works out next up we continue
predicting We Roll merrily along
here big question this ought to go
swimmingly because everyone's totally
logical when I talk about this team what
will Penn State's record be this year
and then bonus question is James
Franklin overrated is Penn State
overrated it's an inside joke if you
know you know they're over under wind
total here's what you need to know it is
nine and a half FanDuel has the over
under win total at nine and a half
FanDuel has them with the third best
odds to win the big Big 10 they have got
the sixth best odds to make the playoff
let me repeat Penn State in a roundabout
way is favored to make the playoff they
would have been in the last several
years if we had a 12 team playoff James
Franklin's entering year 11 here's what
I think I know about his team defense
will again be very strong very strong
the defensive line is full of seniors
got a ton of experience there they've
got a great Edge Duo they've got a great
safety Duo we're hearing good things
about the corners that they got in there
they got Kimber and they got Harris in
the transfer market so feel good again
about defense I think if they handle
this offense right um they should have
outside of Ohio State and it will
probably behoove them that I said that
because they can use it for motivation
but outside Ohio State where should I
have a better one-w combo of tailback
then I mean Singleton and Allen last
year should have been better than they
were this year those guys those guys
both have thousand yard potential about
them so um again new coordinator in so
we'll see how that unfolds but I think I
know they should be very Dynamic and
that should be a strength of that team
and I think I know this will be a little
more controversial Drew Aller is a
strength of this team now Drew Aller
although he had a good year in terms of
touchdown to turnover rate last year
29-2 people think he sucked last year
that's C they they sucked offensively in
big games
but he was a good player last year First
full year as a starter this will be a
second full year as a starter which
leads me we can go right into what I
need to know I need to know will he be
put in a better position than he was
last year they brought in C Nikki the
coordinator from Kansas lot of Hope
riding on that a lot of Hope of their
offense being more explosive in big
games you guys remember the Ohio State
Michigan game last year it was terrible
I was at both those games it was bad
outside that they moved the ball fairly
well but that doesn't really matter uh
because outside of those
games what else are we really talking
about this is Penn State like that's who
you're there to beat will a wide
receiver one emerge on this
team they had Lambert Smith that
transferred down to Auburn and so who
are we looking at here Julian Fleming
transferred in from Ohio State to
Pennsylvania guy um he kind of profiles
as that guy so to
speak do they have one will this offense
generate one you you know will will
there be more opportunity tight ends a
really good in deep position for them
that'll help a little bit as well how
good are they at corner that's another
question I have they brought in AJ
Harris former Central Red Devil for
those of you down in the B City area
they brought him in they brought Kimber
in from Georgia um Daven Collins is a
guy who came there two years ago and
he's been one of the talks of their fall
Camp if if that room has come together
like they're suggesting it has losing
King and losing Dixon that should be a
weakness if it's not a weakness that's a
huge bonus for this team what about the
coaching staff I mean this will be
clipped to the ends of the world because
everyone wants to know about the
coaching staff at Penn State well I've
got every one of them graded in this
model and we all know the model does not
lie I'm going to give you comps a lot of
times I tell you where the guys are
rated I'm going to go one step further
for Penn State I'm going to tell you
where the model places these coaches
James Franklin would be sand witched
kind of in between a Dave Doran a Matt
Campbell Brett belma Brett belma is a
pretty highly rated coach by the way um
that's where he would
profile Andy ciki the new offensive
coordinator you want to know who he'd be
right up
against Bobby
patrino so if anything a very fun season
ahead for Penn State's offense the
offensive support staff here is kind of
average you know by by Major college
football standards the defensive support
staff is excellent uh very very good and
that's not a
surprise they are below
Oregon and above Michigan State sort of
as a coaching staff at large that's
about where we would Place their staff
grade right below Oregon right above
Michigan State Michigan State's not
going to win many games this year
Michigan State's got a pretty good
coaching staff that no one knows about
so that's what the model thinks about
Penn State's coaching staff notice no
one said the word elite no one said the
word great no one said the word top five
and yet if they go 10 and two this year
people will call them overrated the
schedule sets up very well it's very
favorable now don't overlook week one
week one no one's talking about it
outside of these fan bases Penn State at
West Virginia has Rock fight written all
over it when you got a new coordinator
and you're trying to fit many new pieces
in and meanwhile Neil Brown's up there
no longer on the hot seat and he's got
his quarterback back uh it could be a
very very challenging week one game I
want to say Penn State's favored by like
nine or 10 right now but they only play
two teams in the top 25 and Ohio State's
at home look at the last month of their
season Washington at Purdue at Minnesota
Maryland my thinking on Penn State is
somewhere in October their offense will
hit it stride and it will level up you
will not be out of the gate but at some
point it'll level up and you'll find
yourself in early November saying wow
this looks like a really different team
and if that's the case they're going to
get fat on the last four weeks of their
schedule and they're going to have
momentum on their side and they'll get
in the playoff if that happens they have
a huge buy Edge in that Wisconsin game
they go to Southern Cal then they got a
byee so they're fully rested they go to
Madison Wisconsin is off back-to-back
Road games no buy they go to ruter which
is in New Jersey the next week they go
to Washington which is in Seattle and
then they complete a backtack road with
a cross country leg and then they got
Penn State at home no rest Penn State's
fully rested so the best case scenario
for Penn State this year is an
undefeated season and I'm going to tell
you why because there are no huge
Underdog spots on here they've got Ohio
State at home we've got the number on
the game you can go bet it right now
Ohio State's favor by three and a half
in Happy Valley they go to Southern Cal
Penn State will either be favored or a
very small Underdog there is certainly a
path for them to win every one of these
games I've got their worst case scenario
at 8 and4 and I've got them going 10-
two I flirted with 11- one I've got them
going 10- two this year JP poll's really
really high on Penn State higher than
I'd probably have them Penn State is
sixth in the JP poll in the preseason
that's the difference in a power rating
and a ranking because i' I'd probably
rank them a couple of spots lower 10 two
10 and two does that get you to
Indie if it doesn't does it get you in
the playoff I think they're going to be
a playoff team I think Penn State will
be in the playoff if you disagree with
me
though certainly you can shout in the
comments but what you really could do is
you go over to FanDuel and bet no on
Penn State to make the playoffs and if
they don't make it you'll make yourself
some money because that is one of many
offerings they have over there you can
go bet that game I just talked about
Ohio State at Penn State you think Ohio
State's going to roll them go lay three
and a half I'm not kidding you you can
do it right now it's a Future's bet you
can do it right now if you think Penn
State is going to fall to West Virginia
in week one I've got great news for you
you can go find West Virginia and
they'll give you some points so not only
do they pull the up say you actually got
some points you got some cushion you can
do all of this at FanDuel if you're
listening to me and saying I'm not
betting any of my money on Sports but
I'm interested in these numbers you
speak of you can go to FanDuel as well
they don't charge you a dime to look
FanDuel is the exclusive odds provider
of our show we appreciate them lot of
fun we will have an announcement in
conjunction with that very shortly
because you know my my phone says it's
Tuesday right now that means week one is
about 11 days away which means the
Friday night before week one is about 10
days away which means Friday night lines
is nearly upon us I didn't mean to say
lights Yes you heard me right I meant to
say lines many of you are new around
here but many many more of you are
veterans around here you know about
Friday night lines if you don't I will
let you know in due time Friday night
lons is Just Between Us management is
not involved uh we kind of do it on our
own accord it's not on this platform
it's on Instagram live you need to be
following over there at Lake kick Josh
it's late on a Friday night it's it's
gritty it's dirty it's from some random
hotel room it's great it's one of the
most fun things we do all right let's
wrap up the show with this bold
predictions so bold but yet not bold
enough that you wouldn't bet your money
on you guys claim you've bet your own
money on these Scouts Honor we work on
the honor System around here first up
this is from Omar in Billings
Montana He says the Big 10 will get
twice as many playoff bids as the ACC
and the Big 12 combined this is a 9.25
for me so think about what he said the
Big 10 going to get twice as many
playoff spots as the Big 12 and the ACC
okay so the Big 10 needs at least four
just out of the gate because we know
that the ACC and Big 12 are going to
have two combined because one of them
each has to get in so if they get their
minimum you got to have at least four
all right that's already a tall
order if they get even one at large team
like if the ACC or the Big 12 gets even
one more team in there it's over because
at that point you would need six teams
in the college football playoff and if
you just do the math there if they had
three in and you had six in and we know
the G5 gets one in that's 10 the SEC
gets one in that's 11 the Big 10 gets
one in that's 12 in that world the big
10 and the SEC got one team in so
obviously that's not happening so the
only path here as I see it is the ACC
and the Big 12 just get their conference
champ in and that's it and then you've
got to get four in I I don't think
that's going to happen I think these
conferences will get more than two
combined teams in I don't know if I've
got four big I I don't think I got four
big 10 teams going regardless so I'm
gonna put you know what that's Boulder
Jesse I think it's a 9.75 I'm putting a
9.75 on it 9.75 I I upped it by a half a
point right here on air it's the magic
of live internet next up Todd in elfers
Florida FSU Clemson and Miami will
combin to lose 10 games or more in the
regular season well I don't think they
will so this is a 9.5 on the boldness
scale FSU and Miami's win totals are n
and a half Clemson's is eight and a half
so if they hit their unders if all three
of them hit their unders if FSU and
Miami are nine and three it doesn't even
have to be worse than that if they're
nine and three if Clemson's 8 and four
well there you go you hit your bet they
they lost 10 or more games combined but
here's your problem one of these teams
is going to have a really good year one
of them is going to go 11 and one
someone's going to pop an 11- win season
on us and forget about it if someone
goes undefeated so they face each other
too so like someone's got to win that
Florida State Clemson game someone's got
to win the FSU Miami game maybe the same
team wins both of those games and at
that point you know like if Florida
State beats Clemson in Miami
who who beats Florida State Notre name
like who's going to beat him so at that
point I think you see that this is tough
to see through nine and a half on the
boldness scale for me
third this is this is getting up there
Carolina man from Newberry South
Carolina Lenora sers will be a Heisman
contender in 2024 now look here's the
thing I mean what do we what do we mean
when we say contender we got we got to
say finalist we can't be saying
Contender Contender is so nebulous Lenor
sers was announced as the starting
quarterback by the way at South Carolina
today and so we were up there in Spring
and we you know we toured the facility
with Shane Beamer and we were we were in
the we were in the weit room and they're
working out and they're out there
practicing in Spring ball we knew look
look there's evidence there's me walking
with Shane Beamer and you're just going
to have to take our word for it but we
have the quote bubble and I'm telling
him now it's going to be Lenor sers and
sure enough he announces Lenor sers as
his quarterback today
that wasn't much of a mystery but this
dude being a Heisman Contender this year
he's a talented player but man is their
offensive line going to be any better is
their ground game going to be there is
is the wide receiver room enough they're
over under win's five and a half by the
way they got to O go over by like three
games minimum and everything's got to
stand out and he's a firste starter so
as much as I believe in him he's plus
20,000 odds to win the Heisman for a
reason I don't know know that Lenor sers
is in the Heisman conversation this year
so that's a 9.75 on the boldness scale
and I own stock in him and I'm still
putting 9.75 lastly this would just blow
the tops off of some of your heads Drew
from Severa Park Maryland a four loss
team finds their way into the
playoff in the words of Nick Sabin is
this what we want college football to be
the answer for most of you is no this is
unlikely it is not totally impossible so
the way I see it is we can already shave
out like 90% of teams most teams can't
even afford to lose three games and make
the playoff it's likely nobody can lose
four and make it but if we humor
ourselves if if it's a chaotic year in
college football so we're we're looking
at that 10 or 11 seed and we're just
having to pick out of the scrap peep if
you're an CC team that had a
ridiculously tough schedule but you're
like in the 10 to 20 range in power
rating so you had a tough schedule but
you were probably you know good enough
to play competitively and lose some
close games so like you're still up
there you're rated you're ranked high
enough you got four losses Florida you
know would be one of these teams Georgia
has that kind of schedule but Georgia's
probably not losing four games so really
quickly AMA is a team who who would be
ranked high enough and have enough tough
games where if they lost four of them
there's this really outside shot that'd
have some conversation LSU I think I
don't think there's any big 10 team
whose schedule is reputable enough to
where if they lost four there'd still be
enough meat on the scheduling bone now
Florida's probably not going to get to
eight wins but Florida's probably that
team where if they got to eight wins and
they had four losses by a combined 14
points and it's to a bunch of top five
or 10 teams I could see the argument um
I don't think this is going to happen
though so it's probably a moot point so
I'm going to make it a 9.75 on the
boldness scale all right that's all I
got in front of me now remember to do me
a couple of favors please like the video
if you're watching on YouTube and no
matter where you're watching or
listening subscribe to the show and
here's the most important part then look
around you you could be watching with
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don't know what you're doing I I don't
know how you live your life find some
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just just subscribe on those as well
find your friends around you most of
them like college football if they're
not subscribed have them subscribe this
is your due diligence for the day um
this is the duty in exchange for the
show being free appreciate you guys
you're already doing this I just ask
that you continue to do it for producer
Jesse for director Colin I'm Josh P take
care here have a great start well
actually no it's not Thursday it's
Tuesday we'll be back here Thursday
night so uh for the next 48 hours take
care we'll see you back here Thursday
night until then God bless
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