Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band
Summary
TLDRIn diesem Video-Update geht es um Bitcoin und den aktuellen Stand des Bullenmarkt-Support-Bandes. Der 20-Wöchige SMA für Bitcoin liegt bei etwa 63.500 USD, während der 21-Wöchige EMA bei etwa 61.000 USD ist. Bitcoin hat in den letzten Wochen Schwierigkeiten, über den 21-Wöchigen EMA hinaus zu kommen und bleibt unter dem Bullenmarkt-Support-Band. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr, als Bitcoin im August den 20-Wöchigen SMA unterbrochen hatte und erst im Oktober wieder darüber kam, wird die Saisonalität und die Auswirkungen auf den Markt diskutiert. Zudem werden historische Parallelen zu 2019 gezogen, als die FED Zinssenkungen vornahm und Gold einen langjährigen Hochststand durchbrach, was zu einer Abfolge von niedrigeren Hochs und Tiefs für Bitcoin führte. Der Fokus liegt auf den 50-Tage-SMA und 200-Tage-SMA, die als wichtige Indikatoren für die Marktlage dienen.
Takeaways
- 📉 Bitcoin's 20-Wochen-SMA (Simple Moving Average) ist auf etwa 63.500 USD gesunken, während die 21-Wochen-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) bei etwa 61.000 USD liegt, was den Bullenmarkt-Support-Band zwischen 61.000 und 63.500 USD definiert.
- 🔄 Bitcoin hat in den letzten Wochen Schwierigkeiten, dauerhaft über die 21-Wochen-EMA zu kommen, was ein Zeichen für die Schwäche des Marktes ist.
- 🗓 Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr fiel Bitcoin im August 2023 unter die 20-Wochen-SMA und 21-Wochen-EMA und konnte erst im Oktober wieder darüber kommen, was Ähnlichkeiten mit der aktuellen Situation aufweist.
- 📊 Bitcoin hat im Durchschnitt in August und September schlechte Monatsrenditen, was jedoch nicht ausschließt, dass es偶尔阳性的 Monatsrenditen gibt.
- ⚔️ Der 'Todesschnitt' (Death Cross), bei dem die 50-Tage-SMA unter die 200-Tage-SMA fällt, tritt auch in diesem Jahr auf und hat historisch gesehen Auswirkungen auf den Kurs von Bitcoin.
- 📈 Bitcoin hat nach dem Todesschnitt 2023 eine Erholung bis zur 50-Tage-SMA erlebt, wurde jedoch zurückgeworfen und dann erneut auf die 200-Tage-SMA gestiegen, ohne durchzubrechen.
- 🔄 Die aktuelle Situation zeigt, dass Bitcoin nach dem Todesschnitt einen lokalen Top hatte und seit über zwei Wochen nicht über die 50-Tage-SMA von etwa 61.500 USD kommen konnte.
- 📊 Die Vergleiche mit dem Jahr 2019, als die FED Zinssenkungen vornahm und Gold aus seinem langjährigen Hoch hinausbrach, deuten darauf hin, dass ähnliche Muster in der Kryptowährung beobachtet werden können.
- 📉 Der Altcoin-Markt hat in diesem Zyklus eine klarere Abfolge von niedrigen Hochs und Tiefs gezeigt als Bitcoin, was auf eine stärkere Absorption von Liquidität durch Bitcoin hinweist.
- 💹 Bitcoin-Dominanz hängt von der Fähigkeit ab, den Bullenmarkt-Support-Band zu halten und könnte auf etwa 60% steigen, bevor sich eine signifikante Veränderung im Markt einstellt.
- 🌐 Die geringere soziale Aufmerksamkeit und das Interesse an Kryptowährungen hängen stark von den Leistungen der Altcoins ab, was zeigt, dass Bitcoin-Interessen oft mit dem des gesamten Kryptowährungsmarktes verbunden sind.
Q & A
Was ist der Hauptinhalt des Videos?
-Das Video diskutiert den aktuellen Zustand des Bitcoin-Markts und gibt einen Update über die Bullenmarkt-Unterstützungsbande.
Was ist das Bullenmarkt-Unterstützungsband und was zeigt es im Video?
-Das Bullenmarkt-Unterstützungsband ist eine Bereichsangabe, in der sich der Preis von Bitcoin bewegt. Im Video wird angegeben, dass es sich um den Bereich von etwa 61.000 bis 63.500 USD belaufen könnte.
Was ist die 20-Wochen-SMA und wo liegt sie aktuell?
-Die 20-Wochen-SMA (Simple Moving Average) ist ein technisches Analyse-Werkzeug, das den Durchschnittspreis von Bitcoin über 20 Wochen darstellt. Aktuell liegt sie etwa bei 63.500 USD.
Was ist die 21-Wochen-EMA und wo liegt sie?
-Die 21-Wochen-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ist ein anderes Analyse-Werkzeug, das den bewerteten Durchschnittspreis von Bitcoin über 21 Wochen darstellt. Sie ist schneller als die SMA und liegt im Video bei etwa 61.000 USD.
Was ist der Unterschied zwischen SMA und EMA?
-Der EMA reagiert schneller auf Preisbewegungen im Vergleich zur SMA, da er jüngste Preise stärker gewichtet.
Was passierte mit Bitcoin im Juli und wie hat es das Bullenmarkt-Unterstützungsband beeinflusst?
-Im Juli erlebte Bitcoin einen bedeutenden Rückgang, der dazu führte, dass der Preis unter dem Bullenmarkt-Unterstützungsband fiel und nicht dauerhaft über die 21-Wochen-EMA steigen konnte.
Wie vergleicht der Sprecher die aktuelle Situation von Bitcoin mit dem Jahr 2023?
-Der Sprecher vergleicht die aktuelle Situation mit dem Jahr 2023, wo Bitcoin nach einem Verfall unter die 20-Wochen-SMA und 21-Wochen-EMA im August erst im Oktober wieder darüber stieg.
Was sind die monatlichen Rückläufe von Bitcoin im August und September?
-Im Durchschnitt haben Bitcoin im August und September schlechte monatliche Renditen, was rote Monate bedeutet, aber es kann immer noch grüne Monate geben.
Was ist ein 'Death Cross' und wann trat es im Video geschildert auf?
-Ein 'Death Cross' tritt auf, wenn die 50-Tage-SMA unter die 200-Tage-SMA fällt, was als negativer Indikator für den Markt angesehen wird. Im Video geschah dies im September 2023.
Wie hat sich Bitcoin nach dem 'Death Cross' im Jahr 2023 verhalten?
-Nach dem 'Death Cross' im Jahr 2023 rutschte Bitcoin zuerst, steigerte sich dann aber und wurde abgelehnt, bevor es schließlich neue Hochs erreichte.
Was könnte die heutige Situation des Bitcoin-Markts mit dem Jahr 2019 vergleichen?
-Der Sprecher zieht Parallelen zur Situation 2019, als die FED Zinssenkungen vornahm und Gold aus einem langjährigen Hochpreisbereich brach, was zu einer Zeit der niedrigen Hochs und Tiefs für Bitcoin führte, bis die FED mit Quantitative Easing begann.
Was könnte die FEDs Entscheidungen über Zinssenkungen und Quantitative Easing für den Bitcoin-Markt bedeuten?
-Eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik und eine Umkehr von Quantitativer Kündigung zu Quantitativer Easing könnten zu einem Marktaufschwung für Bitcoin führen.
Was ist die Rolle von Bitcoin-Domination im heutigen Markt?
-Bitcoin-Domination zeigt, wie gut Bitcoin im Vergleich zu anderen Kryptowährungen abschnitt. Ein Anstieg der Bitcoin-Domination könnte darauf hindeuten, dass Liquidität von Altcoins zu Bitcoin fließt.
Was ist die Bedeutung der 50-Tage-SMA und 200-Tage-SMA für Bitcoin im aktuellen Markt?
-Die 50-Tage-SMA und 200-Tage-SMA sind wichtige Widerstandszonen für Bitcoin. Eine Überwindung dieser Widerstandszonen könnte als positives Signal für den Markt interpretiert werden.
Outlines
📈 Aktualisierung des Bull Market Support Bands für Bitcoin
Der erste Absatz gibt einen Überblick über die aktuelle Situation des Bitcoin-Markts und stellt die Bull Market Support Band-Update vor. Es wird erläutert, dass die 20-Wöchige SMA für Bitcoin auf etwa 63.500 US-Dollar und die 21-Wöchige EMA auf etwa 61.000 US-Dollar liegt, was den Support Band-Bereich von etwa 61.000 bis 63.500 US-Dollar darstellt. Es wird auch auf die Herausforderungen hingewiesen, die Bitcoin hat, da es in den letzten Wochen nicht in der Lage war, über die 21-Wöchige EMA hinaus zu bleiben, und dass dies einem ähnlichen Muster wie im August 2023 entspricht, als Bitcoin unter die 20-Wöchige SMA und 21-Wöchige EMA fiel und erst im Oktober wieder darüber kam. Es wird auch auf die saisonale Schwäche von Bitcoin in August und September hingewiesen, mit einer Durchschnittsrendite, die in diesen Monaten tendenziell negativ ist.
📊 Bitcoin-Vergleiche mit vergangenen Marktzyklen
Der zweite Absatz vertieft den Vergleich des aktuellen Bitcoin-Zustands mit dem des Jahres 2019, als die FED Zinssenkungen vornahm und Gold einen langjährigen Hochpreisbereich durchbrach. Es wird beschrieben, wie Bitcoin in diesem Jahr, anders als 2020, über dem Bull Market Support Band blieb, während der Altcoin-Markt nicht über diesen Bereich hinauskam. Es wird auch auf die 'Death Cross'-Situation in 2023 eingegangen, bei der die 50-Tage SMA unter die 200-Tage SMA fiel und Bitcoin nach einer Abwärtsbewegung eine kurze Erholung hatte, bevor es erneut an der 50-Tage SMA abgeschossen wurde. Der Absatz endet mit der Beobachtung, dass Bitcoin in 2019 nach der 'Death Cross' einen aggressiven Anstieg hatte, der sich von der heutigen Situation unterscheidet, in der Bitcoin nach der 'Death Cross' eine Abwärtsbewegung erlebt hat, ohne dass es eine sofortige Erholung gab.
📉 Analyse der Bitcoin-Dominanz im Vergleich zum Altcoin-Markt
Der dritte Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Bitcoin-Dominanz im Vergleich zum Altcoin-Markt und wie diese die Liquiditätsströme beeinflusst. Es wird erklärt, dass Bitcoin in einem楔形 Bereich 'festgefahren' ist und nicht erwartet wird, dass es in naher Zukunft einen großen Trend in irgendeine Richtung macht, solange die Dominanz nicht auf etwa 60% sinkt. Der Absatz diskutiert auch die Unterschiede zwischen dem heutigen Marktzyklus und dem von 2020, wobei 2019 als Vergleichspunkt herangezogen wird, da in diesem Jahr die FED Zinssenkungen vornahm und Gold einen langjährigen Hochpreisbereich durchbrach. Es wird auch auf die saisonale Schwäche von Bitcoin in August und September eingegangen, verglichen mit der stärkeren Jahreszeit für Bitcoin in Februar und Oktober.
🔍 Langfristige Perspektiven und saisonale Faktoren für Bitcoin
Der vierte Absatz schließt den Video-Script mit einer Diskussion über die langfristigen Perspektiven für Bitcoin und die saisonalen Faktoren, die die Marktdynamik beeinflussen. Es wird erneut auf die Bedeutung der 20-Wöchigen SMA und 21-Wöchigen EMA hingewiesen, die als Hauptbeobachtungspunkte für den Bull Market Support Band gelten. Der Absatz betont, dass Bitcoin über die 50-Tage SMA und 200-Tage SMA steigen muss, um die derzeitige Widerstandszone zu überwinden. Es wird auch auf die geringere soziale Interaktion im Markt hingewiesen, da die Interessen der Investoren oft von den Altcoins abhängen, die in der Regel stärker fluctuieren als Bitcoin. Schließlich wird die Aussicht diskutiert, dass eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik und eine Rückkehr zu niedrigeren Zinssätzen sowie eine Umkehrung von QT zu QE die Marktdynamik verändern könnten.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Bull Market Support Band
💡20-Wöchige SMA (Simple Moving Average)
💡21-Wöchige EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
💡Death Cross
💡Dominanz von Bitcoin
💡Altcoins
💡Föderal Reserve (FED)
💡Zeitlicher Rahmen
💡Soziale Indikatoren
Highlights
Update on Bitcoin's 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, indicating the current bull market support band range from around 61k to 63.5k.
Bitcoin's struggle to sustainably return to the bull market support band and stay above the 21-week EMA.
Comparison of the current Bitcoin situation to the events of August 2023, noting a similar drop below the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA.
Analysis of Bitcoin's performance in August and September, historically the worst months for Bitcoin based on monthly returns.
The 'death cross' phenomenon in 2023 where the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA and its impact on Bitcoin's price movement.
Bitcoin's reaction to the 'death cross' in 2023, rallying and then facing rejection at the 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
The current difficulty for Bitcoin to surpass its 50-day SMA, which is around 61.5k, indicating market resistance.
Drawing parallels between the current market situation and the year 2019, especially regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and gold price breakout.
Bitcoin's behavior in 2019, showing a series of lower highs and lows until the tail end of rate cuts and the beginning of QE.
The importance of watching the 50-day and 200-day SMAs as key resistance levels for Bitcoin in the current market.
Bitcoin dominance and its relation to the overall cryptocurrency market, suggesting a potential wedge pattern until dominance shifts.
The altcoin market's performance relative to Bitcoin, showing a more pronounced lower high and lower low structure.
The potential for Bitcoin and altcoins to follow the 2019 pattern, with a series of lower lows and lows before a significant market change.
The necessity for a shift in monetary policy, such as lower interest rates and a pivot from QT to QE, for a potential market turnaround.
Observation of low social interest in the cryptocurrency market, tied to the performance of altcoins rather than Bitcoin.
The impact of Bitcoin's price stability on the altcoin market, which is experiencing a clearer lower high and lower low structure.
The potential for Bitcoin to test the lower high structure again in the coming months, influenced by seasonality and market sentiment.
Transcripts
hey everyone and thanks for jumping back
into the cryptoverse today we're going
to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to
be providing an update to the bull
market support band if you guys like the
content make sure you subscribe to the
channel give the video a thumbs up and
check out the sale on into the
cryptoverse premium at intothe
cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and
jump in so it's been a couple of weeks
since we did this video so let's just go
ahead and provide an update on it the
20we SMA for Bitcoin continues to come
down
it's now around
63,5 68 and the 21 we EMA is at around
61,000 and $25 so more or less the bull
market support band range is from around
61k to 63 A5 now one of the issues that
Bitcoin is facing right now is the fact
that the last couple of weeks it's
actually been unable to really durably
get back into the bull Market support
band right it's been unable to stay get
into and stay above the 21 we EMA now
remember it's a band right it it it
consists of two moving average the 20we
SMA simple moving average and 21 we EMA
exponential moving average and of course
the exponential moving average is
quicker to react to price movements than
the 20we
SMA
um but you know I think the issue for
Bitcoin and it and it just continues to
be this is that it hasn't it hasn't
really been able to get back to its 20we
moving average since you know since it
had this pretty big drop back in Late
July and you could argue that it is
somewhat similar to what we experienced
last year uh if you were to look at
Bitcoin back in August of 2023 you can
see that around mid August or so Bitcoin
fell below the 20we SMA and the 21 we
EMA it failed to get back above its 20we
SMA until October right until October
now we just put out a video yesterday
talking about how August and September
does in fact tend to be the worst time
of the year for Bitcoin when you look at
monthly returns right and just pulling
that chart up once again to just you
know in case you missed the video it
wasn't really that riveting so I don't
blame you but on average right Bitcoin
doesn't do that well in August at such
September that doesn't mean that you
can't occasionally have a green August
or a green September it just means that
most of them are red just like you know
most of the time February is green and
most of the time October is green that
doesn't mean every February and every
October is green
okay so I mean you know the last time we
had a red October was back in 2018 last
time we had a ride February was in 2020
right as we were going into the pandemic
crash so in that regard right in that
regard it certainly you know it
certainly seems reasonable to compare to
you know what was going on last year
Bitcoin fell below the 20 week SM about
mid a or mid August and really it took a
number of weeks for Bitcoin to to muster
up the strength to get back above it but
what I'd like to do though is is look on
some of those shorter time frames okay
because there are some things that are
playing out SL slightly
differently one of
those is the you know we also we also
saw Bitcoin get this for lack of a
better term death cross back in
2023 where the 50-day SMA fell below the
200 day SMA and you can see that it
happened right there in September of
2023 and essentially what Bitcoin did
back then was after after the death
cross
Bitcoin rallied into the 50-day
ese it then got a pullback for about a
week and then it got through the 50-day
and went to the 200 day got rejected
from there for a couple of you know for
a week or so back to the 50-day and then
up to New To newy You know to new cycle
highs so that's how it played out back
then how is it playing out today now
remember back then it was a rally after
the death cross right in fact Bitcoin
sold off into the death cross and then
right after it Bitcoin went up we
actually talked a lot about that you
know I said that the most likely outcome
back then was that it sells off just
before it and then rallies in you know
right after it and that actually did
occur I
underestimated just how far it would
rally right I I didn't really think
Bitcoin would get that far above 35 K
back in 2023 so it certainly exceeded my
expectations because you know not only
did it get to
35k by you know by November by December
Bitcoin was in the low 40s you know the
the low to mid- 40s so it certainly
exceeded my expectations back then but
you can see what happened right it was a
selloff into into the death cross a
rally to the 50-day a rejection for
about a week go to the 200 day rejection
for about a week support at the 50-day
go up if you look at it
today you saw a pretty big selloff into
you know before the death cross but then
going into the death cross you actually
had a local top as the death cross
occurred now this time we've been
rejected by the 50-day SMA for you know
well over a week right it's actually
been about 2 weeks now and Bitcoin has
been unable to really get through its
50-day SMA now the 50-day SMA for
Bitcoin is around
61.5k we put out a lot of videos back
over over here saying that look if
Bitcoin can't get above
62k and get some daily closes up there
well that presents a problem because you
know in 2023 Bitcoin was able to get
above the 50-day moving average and you
could argue like why is it not doing it
this time you know why is it not perhaps
it's the labor market you know showing
some weakness perhaps it's you know the
sticky inflation that you know is it
actually going to go back down to 2% or
is it going to re accelerate there's
there's uncertainty for
sure um so that still presents an issue
so then it makes sense in my mind to go
back to the year we've been comparing to
all year and that is in fact 2019 and if
you're new to the channel the reason it
makes sense to at least think that 2019
is a worthwhile comparison is because it
was actually in 2019 when the FED cut
interest rates right and so it was also
in 2019 when gold broke out of of the
range highs that had been holding for
quite a few quite a number of years and
when that happened Bitcoin generally put
in lower highs and lower lows until we
really got into the tail in rate cuts
and and QE began so you can see that
Bitcoin held that lower high and lower
low structure and back then after gold
broke out and after the death cross or
going into the death cross what happened
was that Bitcoin had a rally into the
death cross right and you can actually
see it did the same thing it did in 2023
and it sold off into it and then rally
up into it that was actually why back in
2023 I said the most likely outcome
going into it was to First sell off and
then rally into the death cross right
that's why I said that back in 2023 and
I got you know I I feel like I nailed
that part of the move sort of this you
know the sell off into the death Cross
or just beforehand just beforehand and
then rally up into it but you can see
that this one was a bit different
because it sold off into it but it
didn't get that same immediate Spike
like it did in 2019 right it was a
slower grind up you know rejection slow
grind up rejection and then go up in
2019 it looked different than that right
you you you had the selloff you had the
sell off just before but then instead of
that slow move back up it was a very
aggressive move back up that then just
slowly got sold off for a number of
weeks until it faded and eventually put
in a lower low so you know when we talk
about this stuff about you know the
50-day SMA the 200 day SMA and and
what's going on and is it more like 2023
is it more like 2019 you can see that
the spike following the pre-death cross
selloff was also somewhat aggressive
right it wasn't the same type of move
you saw back over here that was sort of
a slow grind up you know sort of
staircasing up right it wasn't that it
was more so just a rapid move back to
the upside and then a slow fade after it
so again there are some nuances to it
that are worth noting now I don't want
to spend the entire time on the 50 a and
the 200 a may obviously you know it's
it's this video is about the bullmark
sport
but in the short term Bitcoin has been
having some trouble getting back above
its 21 week EMA okay I mean that's
pretty clear every every Spike we get by
Bitcoin it you know we we just continue
to see rejection rejection after
rejection after rejection one of the
things I've said many many times as it
relates to you know Bitcoin and and
Bitcoin dominance and whatnot is that
until dominance goes you know to to
where I think it's going to go around
60% the argument is that Bitcoin is just
still stuck in this wedge until
something changes right until that
actually changes um Bitcoin is is
theoretically stuck in this wedge
meaning you know if that were to play
out until that happens you would not
expect Bitcoin to make a huge move in
either direction right whether it be you
know above above the channel or below
the channel right whether it's whether
it's back back up here or back down
here and the reason is because it's
still absorbing all the liquidity from
the altcoin market okay now one thing to
consider with you know this cycle and
Bitcoin and and I I think a lot of
people sort of made the mistake of
thinking that this was like 2020 when in
fact it really hasn't been and and you
can actually make a lot of comparisons
2019 in the sense that you know Bitcoin
has stayed above its bullmark s end for
long longer than than say the altcoin
market right if you were to look at the
altcoin market total three while Bitcoin
spiked above the bull market support ban
a few weeks ago the altcoin market did
not right the altcoin market just put in
a lower high where it got rejected at
the 20we SMA right it was just a a lower
high and so you know that to me is still
reminiscent of what happened in 2019
where all the moves by the altcoin
market were just rejections at its bull
market support band and note that in
2019 before you know before rate Cuts
arrived Bitcoin sold off and it and it
or sorry the altcoin market sold off and
it was at the 20we SMA and really
started to put in weekly closes below
the bullmark sport Ben in August whereas
it took Bitcoin until September right so
it took a little bit longer and the
reason is because Bitcoin was holding up
better than the altcoin Market because
liquidity was flowing from alts to
bitcoin rather than the other way around
and theoretically the reason for that is
because people were more worried about
you know the economy and if they're
worried about that and and you know and
we also had an inverted y curve back
then also going through quantitative
tightening rather than quantitative
easing during that process alts tend to
bleed to bitcoin and during quantitative
easing Bitcoin tends to bleed to alts so
that's why alts generally lose the
bullmark sport band before Bitcoin as
you get later and later into the to the
business cycle so when I look at at you
know where Bitcoin is in this cycle I
still can't help but draw the
comparisons to the 2019 move um where it
was just a series of lower lows and
lower highs and then you could argue
that after the FED started QE we got a
few rate cuts under our belt Bitcoin
then broke the lower high structure
right it broke the lower high structure
but it didn't break it until January
2020 so from the first from the local
top if you want to call it the midcycle
top it took about 28 weeks for Bitcoin
to break that structure of of lower
highs right so if you were to look at it
today to give you an idea of like what
it would line up with you know from the
March top 28 weeks is still not until
the very end of September and that's if
it just follows what happened in 2019
now remember in 2019 while it broke the
structure we ended up getting a
recession induced by the pandemic um and
then we put in a lower low once again
but the interesting thing about that is
if you connect the dots here you know to
to to these lower lows and lower highs
that were put in the the final lower low
on the weekly close still stayed within
this channel you did Wick well below it
but it did stay within the channel at
least the weekly close Okay so
you know when you look at it over here
we already did have a week where Bitcoin
did Wick below that level um and I'm
curious right I'm curious here if we're
going to sort of you know are we in this
phase right where it it you know it
comes down it it gets a move back up
kind of like what happened right there
in 2019 and then it it sells off to a
new low and then it consolidates at some
lower levels for a while and then maybe
you know in a month or two once we get
to better seasonality we get another you
know Bitcoin takes another uh try at
getting you know taking out the lower
high structure um but it is you know it
is a long and Grilling process if you're
losing interest you're not the only one
okay if you if you go look at the social
risk it is relatively low there's not a
lot of people that care and the reason
and this is why we talk a lot about
dominance and one the reason because
people a lot of people's social interest
as it's tied to the cryptocurrency asset
class is mostly based on how altcoins
are doing not how Bitcoin is doing and I
know a lot of people are like well that
doesn't make sense but it's true if if
altcoins aren't doing well people tune
out because the reality is that most
people are are trying to figure out a
way to get rich quick and so they go buy
altcoins rather than just kind of
sticking with with
Bitcoin the the harsh reality for a lot
of altcoins um sort of the sobering
reality is that Bitcoin is at a price
that it was at for the last several
months right it's been around this price
for a while the issue for the altcoin
market is that that's not true right
altcoins haven't really been at these
levels for you know I mean the the lower
low and lower high structure is a lot
more clear with the altcoin market than
it is with Bitcoin now it's playing out
for both Bitcoin and altcoins but it's
more obvious with the altcoin market
it's more it's a lot more obvious I
think and so I I think that the altcoin
market is is basically doing the same
thing over here and doing it again I
think a lot of people made the mistake
and I I tried to warn people they they
made the mistake of assuming that when
alts were holding here above the
bullmark sport band they made the
mistake of assuming that they were doing
this right here but the reason that's
not the case and I said this many many
times before is because all Bitcoin
pairs had not yet broken down right so
if you overlay again total 3 minus usdt
divided by Bitcoin you put it on the
same chart we'll actually flip it over
to a a um a new scale so we'll pin it to
a new right scale um we'll take that
back to log we'll put this on log and
this is what I you know what I
previously said is that you know the
reason that alts were
not doing this move right like the
reason why this move here wasn't the
same as this one was because all Bitcoin
pairs had not gone to the range lows
like they already had at that point in
the last cycle right they had not
already gone down here and so because of
that it made more sense to think that
alts were actually here rather than
here here where they sort of get one
move up right they get one big move up
they pull back to the bull market
support band get support and then go up
into a sort of midcycle top if you
will and that seems like that's what
happened right I mean after that bitco
you know alt fell back to the 20we SMA
Consolidated for a while around it just
like they did there in 2019 and then
ultimately fell below and then every
time they go back up they just get
rejected okay and and I I think that is
ultimately what we're seeing happen
right now in the cryptocurrency asset
class and I think the only real way
we're going to get out of this is once
we go back right to looser monetary
policy we go to lower interest rates
theoretically the FED pivots from QT to
QE and then you might see something else
play out but you know that's kind of
where we are right now and and we'll
just take it one day at a time so you
know those are my views on the market
that's where we are in terms of Bitcoin
and it's 20we SMA 21 we
EMA again the the main lines in the
stand of
watch are going to be you know 61 to
63k uh as it relates to the bullmark
sport
band and as it relates to the the death
cross that
occurred it's the 50-day SMA and the 200
day
SMA
which you know Bitcoin needs to get
above those and those are at 61 a half
for the for the 50-day and 62.7 62.8 for
the 200 day which again is essentially
where that bullmark sport
range is you know 61 63k in that in that
area and you can even overlay it right
if you overlay the bullmark sport pan on
here you can see that the 50-day SMA and
the 200 day SMA are you know um within
the the bullmark SP and that has been
providing a lot of resistance for
Bitcoin for the last several weeks so
you know we'll see what happens but
those are my views on the market and and
again my guess is the negative
seasonality will will continue for a
little while um that I mean that doesn't
mean Bitcoin can't go up right I mean
it's gone up for the last uh I mean if
you measure it from August 5th it's gone
up for you know a little bit since then
uh but still struggling here at the at
the bullmark sport B if you guys like
the content make sure you subscribe to
the channel give the video a thumbs up
and again check out the sale on into the
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cryptoverse decom I'll see you guys next
time bye
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