🔍 Why Tesla's Stock Price is so LOW📉!
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses why Tesla's stock price remains surprisingly low despite the company's strong fundamentals and growth. It suggests Tesla may be intentionally keeping the stock price down to retain employees via stock incentives, attract loyal retail investors, and allow Elon Musk to negotiate executive pay. It also notes that Tesla disrupts convention, so traditional analysts struggle to accurately value the company's leading positions in EVs, energy storage, AI, and more. Overall it sees massive long-term upside for Tesla due to its strategic advantages.
Takeaways
- 😲 Tesla stock price is irrationally low considering its technology lead and growth prospects
- 👍Retail investors understand Tesla's potential much better than Wall Street analysts
- 😎Tesla doesn't care about short term stock price and allows negative media coverage
- 🔋Tesla's energy storage business alone could be worth more than its car business
- 🌟Tesla has insurmountable leads in AI, data and manufacturing capabilities
- 🚘 Legacy automakers sending customers to Tesla's charging network is madness
- 🤖Tesla bot business has massive potential but no impact on stock price yet
- ⚡The new Roadster will destroy supercar makers like Lamborghini and Ferrari
- 📈Tesla appears to be keeping stock price low intentionally for strategic reasons
- 😃Long term investors should be happy to keep buying this remarkable company at a discount
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video?
-The main topic is analyzing why Tesla's stock price is lower than expected given the company's growth and potential.
What does the speaker believe is the reason behind Tesla keeping its stock price low?
-The speaker believes Tesla is intentionally keeping its stock price low in order to retain employees by allowing them to invest at lower prices, attract loyal retail investors, and allow Elon Musk to negotiate his compensation plan from a lower base.
How does Tesla allow negative media coverage to persist?
-Tesla does not invest in public relations to address negative coverage and misinformation. They also do not address concerns about safety, working conditions etc.
What is Tesla's advantage in AI according to the speaker?
-Tesla has over 5.5 million vehicles on the road collecting data and doing over 50 billion miles per year. This massive data advantage gives them an insurmountable edge in training AI systems.
What is the speaker's price target for Tesla?
-The speaker believes, based on the LILA model, that Tesla will reach a price target of $694.
How could the megapack business be bigger than the car business?
-The total addressable market for utility-scale energy storage is substantially larger than the car market. Capturing a fraction of this could yield over $600 billion in annual revenue.
Why does the speaker trust retail investor price targets more than Wall Street?
-Retail investors spend thousands of hours analyzing Tesla and understand its diverse business lines. Wall Street focuses too narrowly on autos.
What is Tesla's advantage in manufacturing robots?
-Tesla has unmatched expertise in AI, machine learning and integration that gives them an edge in building advanced manufacturing robots like Optimus.
How could the Cybertruck beat high-end sports cars?
-With rocket boosters from SpaceX, the Cybertruck can accelerate incredibly fast while towing. It will match or beat supercars in performance at a lower price.
Why does the speaker think there is more upside in the stock?
-Despite Tesla's growth and lead in multiple industries, the stock is below its 200-day moving average. This indicates there is substantial room for the price to grow.
Outlines
😊 Introducing the Tesla Stock Puzzle
The host welcomes viewers and introduces the topic of discussing Tesla's stock price which he finds puzzling given the company's exponential growth and position as a leader in EVs and technology. He shares his philosophy of getting excited when prices fall as it allows purchasing a great company cheaply.
📈 Comparing Professional vs Retail Tesla Targets
The host analyzes Tesla's stock targets from professional Wall Street analysts which average $355, lower than retail analysts averaging $499. He believes retail analysts understand Tesla's business better as Wall Street is unable to properly categorize Tesla's diverse operations.
😕 Tesla Allows Negative Media Coverage
The host suggests Tesla intentionally allows negative media coverage and misinformation to persist. He lists examples like lack of PR, not addressing safety concerns or controversies, and Elon Musk's unconventional communication style as hurting public perception.
🤔 Theories on Why Tesla Keeps Stock Price Down
The host shares theories on why Tesla seems to keep its stock price depressed, like retaining employees by offering purchase opportunities, attracting loyal retail investors, allowing Elon Musk to renegotiate his compensation, and expressing disdain for Wall Street.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Tesla
💡stock price
💡disruption
💡Elon Musk
💡automotive industry
💡energy storage
💡autonomous driving
💡retail investors
💡valuation
💡future growth
Highlights
Tesla is the only force in the EV market
Elon admires the loyalty and support of retail investors
Low stock price helps retain employees and offer them investment opportunities
Elon wants to renegotiate his compensation plan with the stock at a lower price
Tesla allows negative media coverage and misinformation to persist
There is unrecognized revenue related to energy and warranty services
The battery storage business could be worth more than the car business
Tesla dominates EV charging infrastructure
Tesla has an insurmountable lead in AI from real-world driving data
There is no valuation given to Tesla's potential in robotics
The Roadster will be faster than any supercar while cheaper
The stock price is kept low intentionally for strategic reasons
Few can accurately value all of Tesla's businesses and leads
Tesla sets new standards across industries through innovation
Now is the time to invest while the price is artificially low
Transcripts
Hello everybody welcome to the show
second one today and the wick out on
bitcoin was hilarious but we're here for
another topic today we're talking about
Tesla and this is this is the weirdest
thing that sometimes things just bug me
and they keep me awake and night and I
try to figure out why why why are things
the way they are this is one of the most
special companies ever late 2022 early
2023 with the best buying opportunity
ever literally that was the looking down
the back of the seat of the couch for
coins to buy Bitcoin and let me see did
I go live
yet yeah good just making sure wasn't
sure
anyway here we are
again this company continues to share
the most mindblowing news and yet the
price is not where it should be and
we're going to break all that down and
try to figure out why I think I cracked
the code so thank you all for joining
let's go and uh quick disclaimer no this
is financial advice and shout out to
every in patreon as well who make
everything possible uh we are two bear
says props for the great content happy
to support you to the patreon thank you
for being here and thank you for joying
enjoying all that has to offer and there
always tons to learn every day now
literally inspiration for this is
chatting with a lot of people all the
time time and they sometimes don't
understand my excitement when the price
of Tesla
Falls that's where my brain works it's
like wow we get to buy something really
good really cheap that's what investing
is but people are like why is it not at
400 it's like dude we could buy it 175
like a couple weeks ago it's amazing and
I was talking to FR Mets this is Tesla
Boomer Mama literally only an hour
ago and and we're going back and forth I
told her I bought a little bit today
actually a pretty big chunk that's the
third buy under 200 and uh she's saying
oh I hope the price stays low because I
want to buy more but sometimes people
don't have the exact cash flow coming in
all the time so that was super
interesting so shout out to Alexander
Mets so let's get into what this is all
about and we try to break it all down it
is it is a company that has been uh on
my mind since 2017 in a big way but
they've had exponential growth in recent
years they are the only force in the EV
Market maybe byd too but no byd don't
have the technology they have or the
manufacturing Pros they they Hammer the
cars together with bodies not with
machines and robots they also are a
symbol of massive technological
disruption everything Elon touches he
disrupts that's just the way it works
and Tesla success reflects its strategic
positioning this is very important in
the Forefront of
sustainable everything it's not just
Transportation it's now everything AI
the robot on Wheels which is the car the
bot energy storage chatting with kiwi
robin today you know it's like you know
what about many reactors many nuclear
reactors and I was saying no we have a
reactor in the sky the whole world has
access to it the key is just to store
that energy and distribute it that's it
so that's what they do and the puzzle of
Tesla stock price is really do they want
to keep the stock prices down I always
ask myself these questions um are they
avoiding giving the analy the financial
guidance they want which is vexing them
and there's confusion among investors
due to the very unconventional Tesla
approach if you think Tesla is going to
be con conventional it's not it's just
not how they operate and and you got
very compressed margins and lost
earnings when unrealized revenue is at
all-time high it's like H it doesn't
make sense as if you know my paranoid
mind probably they want to keep the
price down so let's dig into what this
is all about Hello shark lover what a
cool name let's look at some key metrics
as well of where we actually are and
it's pretty obscene to see alltime high
is 414 bucks I bought some under 200
today
and alltime high $414 was over three
years ago 52 we High $300 52 we low 152
bucks two by the way is 106 at the
beginning of the year 2023 200 day
moving average $234 44 50-day 214 like
if in this era of AI we're under the 200
day moving average by $35 it's kind of
nuts market cap 600 billion give or take
and 3 billion
shares what's going on if you go back 3
years and look at where we are today and
all they have done it's crazy now this
came out today as well just literally an
hour or two ago from
RBC and that's the Royal Bank Canada and
they just placed a $297 scientific
Target on the price of Tesla and they
kind of know what they're doing but
let's put the analyst aside for a second
let's break down all the analysts and
where we are so this is the Tesla price
targets from all the analysts as of
today you know at the top of the list is
Tasha keini from Arc invest all the way
down to Gary black from the future fund
at the bottom but if you average all
these top analysts you get an average
price of
$355 79 of course 792 is the top
leaderboard from Arc
invest
nobody in the professional analyst world
has analyzed Tesla like Arch have so
kudos to Arc now let's look at the
retail
analysts uhhuh here we see the very top
is Alpha Quant and we got people in
there that we know and love as well all
the usual names whole Mars
catalog Tesla Herbert I think it's
Herbert on they call him Tesla Herbert
um you name it all the key players are
there Sasha's in there Etc their average
price Target is
$499.58
just shot of 500 bucks interesting
number but the retail analysts are far
higher than the Wall Street analysts why
is that well before we get into the rest
of the story and what I uncovered retail
is I believe far smarter and far more
knowledgeable than your average Wall
Street and Wall Street their problem is
they have to try and pigeon hole Tesla
into an automotive play and it's not
because the automotive analysts don't
understand what Tesla is they can't
stick it in a utility play play and they
can't STI an AI play it's just they're
completely confused and lost but retail
spend the time the thousands of hours to
understand exactly what this thing is
made up of and where it's going that's
why I place a lot more Credence on these
targets than these targets but either
way even just the analyst targets we are
way way way way way lower than we should
be so my theory and before we get into
all the other good stuff and why why
they keep the stock price down first of
all low stock prices help retain
employees by offering them the
opportunity to invest at lower prices
and vest sometimes over multi-year
periods that drives a lot of retention
loyalty and incentivized to stay long
term also the people on the inside know
where the company is going it's also
good to attract retail investors as well
uh and the Tesla and Elon Musk they love
the retail investor the retail investor
has been with them through thick and
thin through even on the verge of
bankruptcy when Elon Musk was sleeping
on a factory floor they never gave up
they never left and Elon admires that
loyalty and he also doesn't admire Wall
Street he has disdain for Wall Street
and the analysts and the shorts and all
those guys and the hedge funds and most
importantly Elon needs to negotiate a
new comp plan we all know that too you
don't want to negotiate a comp plan when
the Stock's at $400 or 600 bucks for
obvious reasons you want it low and
cheap so perhaps there's some strategy
behind this as well uh maybe they are
trying to keep the lid on things but
let's look at a couple of other reasons
too on how Tesla lets the mainstream
media Hammer them all right they they
have a pure team but you could say they
really have none and Tesla has not
invested in any public relations to
address negative media coverage
inaccurate information about the company
and they allow misinformation and
negative coverage to persist okay fair
enough then they don't address concerns
about safety despite it being the safest
car on the planet they don't even they
don't even bother they don't care it's
as if they want people to throw mud at
the company and they won't even bother
washing it off also very unconventional
communication methods El mus
communication style I personally think
it's awesome but some people find it IR
and controversial I'd rather hear truth
and be offended than know somebody's
lying to me and also uh this has led to
a lot of negative media coverage and has
not helped combat criticism effectively
also lack of advertising they're
beginning to do a little bit of it now
but they don't really They Don't Really
Care you know these cars sell themselves
Etc Mega packs have multi-year waiting
lists cyber truck 7.2 year waiting list
um and also there's other controversial
actions that happen out there sometimes
things are said sometimes things are
done who cares but it does bother the
traditional markets and Wall Street also
uh failure to address concerns about
things like working conditions failure
to address environmental concerns
there's recent talk that there's too
much poop in the water in Germany
outside Giga
Berlin I mean this is the most
environmental company in the world but
some of the stuff is just ridiculous but
they don't care they let it slide as if
they want to keep the lid on things and
there's a lot more too there is no talk
of acred Revenue approximate numbers
here but they have energy Revenue that's
unac Creed they just sometimes when you
sell something you can't actually
realize the revenue until it's actually
plugged in but basically it could be on
the verge of being plugged in they also
have a lot of money in warranty services
Revenue because the cars are of such
good
quality the reserves for the warranties
are put to the side but nothing ever
happens to the car I've got a 5-year-old
X outside never had a problem never same
tires 50,000 miles no problems no
warranties required it's kind of Madness
anyway these are these are monies that
are sitting there and that could just be
dumped onto earnings per share at any
time but they don't mention it don't
talk about it also a little comment of
mine earlier today chatting in the
community there's no talk of size of
mega pack and auto bidder business uh
shout out to C Basher him and I had a
great conversation on this and I'll read
this again this is an analyst again from
Royal Bank of Canada and they believe
Tesla's mega pack battery storage
business could be worth substantially
more than it Standalone car business now
that's a big wakeup call because elon's
been saying that for years when you look
at the size of the global utility
industry it's 100x the size of the
automotive industry so that's obvious
but the key numbers here is it could
yield 600 billion annual indust industry
revenue and they could get a huge market
share etc etc
etc bringing it all down and how it's
not even in the stock price and that's
kind of interesting the work they're
doing in place like Australia is
completely mind-blowing especially with
aut bidder they are now in a position
okay to literally resell energy that
they get on behalf of the utilities they
work for it's it's craziness there's no
talk of the fueling station domination
as I call it they own the gas stations
and a shout out as well to SJ it's also
super smart you've got everybody in
there now rivan has just joined you got
General Motors Volvo stantis po store uh
and they're opening up the charge
network network to everybody but per top
physician it's also a super smart thing
to do it's like me sending my patients
to another doctor to get a prescription
that is
fatal for that doctor's image and sales
to send his patent patient his customer
to another physician all right all the
other car companies are sending their
cars to another gas station energy
station fueling station whatever you
want to call it it's Madness it's
Madness the halo effect of this alone
will be insane in addition there's no
talk of their insurmountable AI
Advantage again Apple before they just
shot their program had 67 Vehicles
testing automated driving 450,000 Mi a
year and you got the weo data and all
these other players zukes Etc Tesla has
over 5 and a half million Vehicles all
right and they're doing over 50 billion
miles a
year and they track everything and they
see everything okay this is an absolute
insurmountable insurmountable Advantage
the edge cases that they can cover all
over the world are insane no other
company is in a position to do that and
there's little talk is the odd video but
no real words as to what's going on
there's no talk of the bot potential you
got companies now getting Public Funding
in the multi-billion dollar valuation of
course there not a penny not a penny
from the analysts on their uh price
targets for Tesla and Tesla have the
most incredible expertise in Ai and
machine learning they've been doing this
from the get-go uh their expertise can
be applied to everything including
robots allowing them to navigate and
interact with the environment more
effectively their manufacturing
capabilities are second to none and
they're about to get a whole lot better
with model 2 which apparently rumor has
it the line is set for model 2 and the
design is locked in okay we just they
just surprised the world yesterday as
well we'll talk about that in a second
um and their background and
Manufacturing the way they unthink
everything best part is no part Etc best
process is no process they are so far
have it's
scary in addition they integrate
everything with existing products they
use SpaceX to make metal for cars they
use SpaceX to generate boosters for cars
again it it is crazy and their access to
data a second to none they have an
integrated platform uh integrated Erp
CRM analytics you name it Allin one
platform and they can configure demands
for their vendors on the Fly also they
have an extremely strong brand Etc when
they nail this
spot there will be no choice it'll be
Optimus or something crappy at a much
higher price that's just the way of the
world and then they launch this Roadster
okay for those Formula 1 fans out there
this thing will do not to 60 below 1
second because of SpaceX there will be
never no other car like this bye-bye
Lamborghini Ferrari Porsche all these
companies I think they they have a
monopoly on speed no and I guarantee you
this Roadster will probably maybe 200k a
lot cheaper than any of these other cars
and it'll be a lot faster a lot safer
and it'll drive itself and it'll be
faster in the Formula 1 car so
completely crazy and if you think that's
crazy well the Cyber truck is already
faster than the Porsche towing a
Porsche the Legacy sports car makers are
toast if of course Tes can buy them
enough so let's get down to the
nitty-gritty as to the conclusion why is
the stock price so low considering all
the value they had have all the
insurmountable leads it's crazy so let's
get to my theory before we're going to
look at two charts one is the
ATR uh we're only at level three this is
a multi-year time frame model that looks
at the macro situation of an asset and
where we are we're level three from from
six levels and basically middle of the
road considering we're in an AI
Revolution and this is the leading
player in the space why is it not back
at all alltime highs it's crazy but the
good news for us is there's lots of
upside but we don't know why or do we
why they're keeping the stock price
depressed let's look at the Lila model
layer in layer out model and basically
what this does is projects forward where
the price could actually go so level
seven is 43 bucks level8 514 level 9 626
and level 10 is
$694 we know we're going to level 10
$694 the question when and as we saw
recently risk happens fast literally in
24 hours salana went up 30% and we've
seen what Bitcoin can do we've seen what
Nvidia does this thing will pop we just
don't know when but we do know that lid
has been kept on it now let's talk about
the conclusion part one first of all I
do believe Tesla is keeping stock low to
retain employees to give loyal retail
investors like you and I an edge and
allow Elon to renegotiate his comp plan
pretty clear also give the finger to
Wall Street whatever that means I'm not
quite sure but yeah he's not a fan of
Wall Street and part two literally Tesla
strategic strategy disrupts
everything not just Wall Street man
stock management practices but all
traditional businesses and few are able
to place a value on what this thing is
its remarkable
success its advantages over everybody
else it's its lead in terms of 7 to 10
years AC from everybody else and they
are setting new industry standards for
everything including cars and energy
storage and auto bidder which is an AI
play and the bot and by thinking
differently and bold actions as I said
they're not going to be conventional
Tesla and Elon Musk will have their chat
gbt moment so in the meantime stack as
Alexandra mer said I hope the price
stays low so I can buy more and she's
all in on Tesla so with that every hope
you like the video don't see this as bad
or depressing when you have an
extraordinary company at a low price you
should be happy that's my logic at least
could be Floyd who am I just some crazy
guy on the internet thank you all for
coming thank you T andd Tesla and K8 and
the mods in the chat it's only a Tesla
only fans group here today but there's
nearly 3,000 of you so hit the like on
the way out everybody thank you so much
for coming and I'll see you all
tomorrow no more videos for me today
please
[Music]
bye
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