Buy the Dip or Time to Short the Stock Market: Breaking Down the Bearish Argument
Summary
TLDRJason Shapiro 在拥挤市场报告中讨论了股市的看跌面。他透露自己今年首次做空股市,并解释了基于交易者持仓报告和新闻失败的决策逻辑。他指出,如果市场出现回调,并且投资者在回调期间买入,可能会引发真正的麻烦。他还提出了一个更宏观的悲观观点,认为整个社会在财务上类似于庞氏骗局,但同时也承认这种情况可能不会很快结束。
Takeaways
- 📅 视频中提到了日期,即2023年8月4日星期五。
- 🗣️ Jason Shapiro是crowdedmarketreport.com的主持人,他在这个视频中分享了他对股市的看法。
- 🐻 Jason Shapiro在视频中透露,他今年首次做空了股市,这表明他对市场持悲观态度。
- 📊 他提到了交易者持仓报告,并分析了商业持仓,认为这是他做空市场的一个信号。
- 📉 Jason Shapiro认为,市场在出现新闻失败时,即市场对利好数据反应不佳时,是他做空的时机。
- 📈 他提到了市场在达到新高后的反转,这可能是一个不利的信号。
- 🌐 Jason提出了一个宏观上的悲观论点,即整个社会在金融上是一个庞氏骗局,因为政府发行了大量债务,并且自己印钱购买这些债务。
- 📊 他讨论了技术层面上的熊市迹象,包括纳斯达克开始落后于其他指数,这可能是市场转向的信号。
- 📉 视频中提到了市场可能的回调和新高,但Jason认为如果市场真的回调并且人们买入,可能会导致真正的麻烦。
- 🤔 Jason表达了对市场的犹豫,他不确定什么会让长期看空的人改变看法,但他提出了市场可能在回调后出现真正的下跌。
- 📝 最后,Jason希望观众对他的悲观观点持保留态度,因为他是在谈论自己的投资观点。
Q & A
Jason Shapiro 是谁,他在视频中提到了什么日期?
-Jason Shapiro 是 crowdedmarketreport.com 的主持人。在视频中,他提到了日期是2023年8月4日,星期五。
Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到他做了什么决定?
-Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到,他在今年第一次做空了股市。
什么是 'commitments of Trader positioning',它在视频中提到了什么?
-“Commitments of Trader positioning” 是一种市场分析工具,用来追踪不同市场参与者的持仓情况。视频中提到,Dow Jones 的商业持仓达到了一年半以来的最空水平。
Jason Shapiro 如何解释 'news failure' 这个概念?
-在视频中,Jason Shapiro 将 'news failure' 解释为市场在有利好消息时上涨,但随后却下跌并收盘的情况。他认为上周四的市场表现就是一个 'news failure' 的例子。
Jason Shapiro 提到了 'goldilocksy data',这是什么意思?
-在视频中,'goldilocksy data' 指的是既显示经济增长又显示没有通货膨胀的数据,这种数据通常被认为对市场是正面的。
Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到了哪些可能影响股市的因素?
-Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到了多个因素,包括政府债务、市场参与者的持仓情况、技术图表分析、市场共识以及潜在的经济衰退等。
视频中提到的 'Ponzi scheme' 是什么,它与当前金融市场有何关联?
-在视频中,'Ponzi scheme' 是指一种金融诈骗,新投资者的资金用来支付早期投资者的回报。Jason Shapiro 将当前的金融市场比作一个庞氏骗局,因为政府发行大量债务并通过印钞来购买这些债务。
Jason Shapiro 如何看待当前股市的技术分析?
-Jason Shapiro 在视频中提到,他通常不使用传统的技术分析方法,但他注意到在牛市中,最不稳定的指数(如纳斯达克)应该领先,而当前情况正好相反,这在他看来是一个熊市信号。
视频中提到的 'capitulation' 是什么意思,它如何影响市场?
-在视频中,'capitulation' 指的是投资者在持续亏损后放弃并平仓空头头寸。Jason Shapiro 认为,如果市场出现回调,并且之前一直看空的投资者开始买入,这可能会导致市场出现真正的麻烦。
Jason Shapiro 对未来股市的看法是什么?
-Jason Shapiro 在视频中表达了对股市的悲观看法,他认为如果市场出现回调并且投资者买入,可能会导致市场出现严重的下跌。但他也提到,这种看法应该谨慎对待,因为他是在谈论自己的投资观点。
Outlines
📉 股市看跌观点分析
Jason Shapiro在2023年8月4日的视频中,首次公开表示对股市持看跌态度,并分享了他做空股市的原因。他提到了利用交易者持仓报告来识别市场转折点,并解释了为什么在上周四市场出现所谓的“新闻失败”时,他认为是做空的好时机。Jason还讨论了市场的大环境,包括政府债务问题和潜在的庞氏骗局风险,以及他对市场可能的长期影响的看法。
📊 技术分析与市场情绪
Jason继续分析了股市的技术面和市场情绪。他指出,尽管通常不使用传统技术分析,但注意到了股市领先指标的异常表现,特别是纳斯达克指数开始落后,这在他看来是一个看跌信号。此外,他还讨论了市场共识对股市新高的预期,以及如果市场出现回调,投资者可能会买入,从而可能引发真正的麻烦。Jason强调,尽管他对看跌观点有所犹豫,但他提出了一些可能导致市场大幅下跌的情况,包括投资者对市场回调的反应和潜在的过度买入行为。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡熊市
💡做空
💡持仓报告
💡新闻失败
💡波动率
💡技术图表
💡庞氏骗局
💡债务
💡通货膨胀
💡市场共识
💡季节性因素
Highlights
Jason Shapiro在8月4日的视频中提到,他首次在今年做空了股市。
他根据交易者持仓报告(Commitments of Traders positioning)的数据,发现商业持仓达到了一年半以来的最空头寸,这促使他做空。
Jason认为,当市场出现新闻失败(news failure)时,是做空的好时机,他以上周四的市场表现为例。
他提到,如果市场出现回调,并且投资者在回调中买入,可能会引发真正的麻烦。
Jason认为,如果市场普遍预期将会创新高,并且投资者在预期的回调中买入,那么市场可能会面临更大的下跌风险。
他指出,当前市场出现了一些投降现象,一些对冲基金减少了空头头寸。
Jason提到,市场普遍预期股市将回调后创新高,这可能是一个过于一致的共识。
他强调,如果市场出现回调并且投资者买入,这可能会导致市场出现严重的下跌。
Jason认为,市场可能已经调整了交易方式,投资者可能在等待反弹而不是追逐高点。
他提到,如果市场出现预期的回调,并且投资者买入,这可能是市场转向的信号。
Jason指出,纳斯达克指数开始落后于其他指数,这可能是一个熊市信号。
他提到,市场在1月份的反弹中,投资者大量买入,这可能表明市场定位已经发生变化。
Jason认为,如果市场出现回调并且投资者买入,这可能会引发市场的大幅下跌。
他提到,尽管市场普遍看空,但市场的上涨并没有使这些空头改变看法。
Jason认为,如果市场出现回调,空头可能会认为这是一个买入的机会,这可能会导致市场出现真正的下跌。
他强调,尽管他提出了熊市的观点,但这些观点应该以谨慎的态度来看待,因为他是在谈论自己的投资组合。
Transcripts
foreign
[Applause]
hello today is Friday August 4th 2023. I
am Jason Shapiro with
crowdedmarketreport.com today I am going
to do something that I am almost sure
I'm going to regret but wouldn't be the
first time so let's just go ahead and do
it and what I'm going to do is I'm going
to talk about the bearish side of the
stock market and as full disclosure I.E
for the first time this year got short
the stock market last Thursday and we
can get into exactly why I did that I
got short to Dow this is the commitments
of Trader positioning for the Dow and
you can see while it looks like it's
just like neutral here on a net basis
what my stuff does is it indexes this
data so if you look at this whole period
this is the shortest that commercials
have been in over a year and a half so
my index will then show that that's sort
of Max short commercials which means Max
long for these speculators and that's
when I look to get short so I then wait
for a news failure and I took last
Thursday as that news failure some
people I think disagreed with me on that
it's always a read I thought that there
was very good data that was sort of
goldilocksy data that showed growth with
lack of inflation come out and the
market went up on that and then came
down and closed down in the deck uh you
could see that here it was this reversal
day right here the Dow actually made
like touch new highs for the year and
then finished down and my stop on that
would be closing through that high which
it came very close to doing but didn't
and now has sort of moved back down but
and whether this trade will work or not
you know just like any of my trades uh I
like to believe it has about a 38 chance
of working but if it works it will work
a lot bigger than the risk that it took
so anyway I'm talking my book here but
you know in the grand tradition of Wall
Street Let's uh let's do some book
talking right
so let's start with the um the big
picture and I haven't gotten into this
since I went bearish at the end of uh
2021 because I haven't been shorting the
stock market sort of since mid-2021 but
I mean mid-2022 but you know let's get
back into it the big picture to me and
this is the long shot obviously and it
really has nothing to do with trading
right now but let's just make the super
bearish case which is that this whole
society at this point is nothing but a
Ponzi scheme financially right you've
had a incredible amount of debt issued
by the government to prop things up I
really since oh wait and what makes it a
Ponzi scheme is that the people buying
that debt is the government they're
printing money and buying the debt that
they're issuing that's nothing but a
Ponzi scheme okay and Ponzi schemes have
a way of ending and when they do end
they end very quickly and they end very
ugly does that mean this is going to
happen no Japan's been doing this for a
very long time and their Ponzi scheme
hasn't ended although the Nikkei is now
at what it's 32 000. um it was at 39 000
in 1989.
so we're 34 years down the road and the
nikke has done nothing but but lose
money and investing in Japanese
government bonds during that time period
has gotten you nowhere either because
interest rates have been zero and even
negative at some points so while the
entire Society didn't collapse upon
itself because of the Ponzi scheme
certainly investing in those assets
didn't do you very well and that's sort
of a low probability event clearly
because obviously if there's anyone that
can keep Ponzi scheme going it's a
government that can print its own money
right which the U.S can clearly do but I
still think that the laws of physics
will tell you there's a limit to
everything and one day there will be a
limit to the amount of money that the
U.S government can print that the world
will accept right so anyway that's sort
of the big picture super bearish scary
thing right but let's get more into
reality of the here and now and I would
make sort of a few arguments and my
first argument clearly is the CO2 thing
which got me short and that's the only
argument that really I trade off of so
the combination of C Dot and news
failure and if you didn't think that the
news failure last Thursday is any valid
you could certainly argue that the news
failure today was valid the the
employment report and everything came
out pretty bullish the market was
ripping and then all of a sudden out of
nowhere it just collapsed and and closed
on lows the Dow lost over 500 points uh
from its high in about two hours which I
know it's a different percentage basis
but 508 points was the entire doubt
crash of 1987. so we had an 87 crash in
about two hours today which again is
silly because percentage-wide is totally
different but you can make the argument
today was a news failure if you'd like
to so that's first for me second for me
is like I don't do technicals really in
the classic way but one thing that I do
like technically is I like to see in a
bull market and this is on almost any
time frame including entry day right the
NASDAQ being the leader followed by the
s p followed by the Dow because the
NASDAQ is the most volatility investors
indices s p is second that was third so
the most volatile should lead what we
had here was the opposite in this last
run up right so the Dow went and tested
its high and came in like very close of
getting to a new high this past week
whereas the s p did a little worse job
of that right came a little bit further
away from getting to that high and the
NASDAQ did an even worse job of that
didn't really come anywhere near close
as those other ones so the nasdaq's
starting to lag the move and up move
this to me a bearish thing again across
many time frames but this is the this
time frame so on a technical basis the
way I look at technicals that could be
could be a point right the other points
that you can get bearish about and
clearly a lot of these people have been
talking about all year so I'm not going
to get into the whole recession coming
and blah blah blah because we know that
story 100 times over right but what I
will say is this we did see quite a bit
of capitulation in the last few weeks
according to some of the Prime Brokers
that see hedge fund flows right and I
know some Brokers and some derivative
brokers who have told me that their
hedge fund clients have really backed
off of their shorts because they're just
sick of losing money on them quite
frankly so we have that right we had
this week what I would argue was the
single most consensus thing that I heard
all week was this idea that the stock
market is going to go and make new highs
this year because it's somewhat
overbought here and because of
seasonality reasons it's probably going
to have a pullback here and then after
that pullback it will then go and make
new highs well if that's what people are
really thinking if you think the
Market's going to pull back and then
make new highs and you are going to buy
that pullback right and we don't know if
they're really going to do that we will
find out because we'll see it in the
commitments of Traders data what they
did but what I'm saying is that if in
fact we get a decent pullback here and
if in fact people end up buying that
pullback because they've been bearish
all year and they're like oh finally now
I can buy in and ten percent off highs
or eight percent or whatever it is off
the highs now I can buy it and they load
up on Longs there then I think we have
the potential for some real trouble
right we saw this the last time we saw
this was pre-covered or post covert when
covert first hit the market went down
for a few weeks people bought the crap
out of it like I didn't get a signal to
be short at the high there but two weeks
into covert before anybody knew covert
was going to be what it turned out to be
at first they all just thought it was
like bird flu or whatever so they bought
the hell out of the first dip which gave
me a chance to get shorted there and
then and then the market you know
seriously you know collapsed for for a
month or so so if we can see something
and as an aside we also had that on the
way up here like I didn't get along at
the lows in October of this year which
is typically what my stuff does right
when it works is I kind of catch the
market turn but I didn't have the the
positioning set up in October when the
market low low hit but by January people
had sold in to the rally so much that I
was getting along in January so this
might be the new normal for the
positioning in the stock market maybe
people have adjusted how they trade
rather than chasing highs and panicking
at lows they're kind of waiting for a
bounce to do it so maybe in this one
they're waiting for a pullback to get
long again don't know if that's what
they will do it's a lot easier to say
you're going to buy the dip than to
actually buy the dip when the time comes
but we will be monitoring to make it to
see if in fact that happens and if in
fact that happens I think we could be in
some serious trouble so that's really
simply my bearish argument all right I
have hesitancy about this because I do
think that the Bears that have been dug
in all year continue to be bearish and
I've been wondering what was going to
get them to stop being bearish clearly
the market going up wasn't doing it
right and the more the Mark goes up the
more bearish they get because of the
more valuations are ridiculous right so
that doesn't seem to be doing it so
maybe it will be this sort of a dip and
they'll feel that okay now we can get
out of this and we can buy the dip and
then maybe we have a real move down
that's kind of what I'm thinking in
terms of possibilities yeah all right so
anyway that's the bear idea please uh
take it somewhat with a grain of salt
because I am talking in my book but
that's kind of the idea I'm looking at
and I hope that you enjoy it and I'm
always happy to hear questions and
comments and um I hope you'll have a
profitable week and we hope to see you
on crowded market report Dot come all
right thank you
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