Former Open AI Employee Reveals The Next 5 Years Of AI
Summary
TLDRThe video delves into former OpenAI employee Daniel Cokal's 2021 predictions about AI's trajectory, which have unnervingly come true by 2024. It highlights the rise of multimodal Transformers and the AI risk community's shortened timelines, predicting a singularity by 2029. Cokal's forecasts for 2026-2029 include the emergence of AGI and ASI, potentially revolutionizing industries with nanobots and humanoid robots. The video ponders the implications of these advancements, suggesting that whoever controls ASI could wield transformative power.
Takeaways
- 🔮 Former OpenAI employee Daniel Cokal made predictions in 2021 about AI's future that have been strikingly accurate up to 2024-2025.
- 🤖 Cokal predicted in 2021 that by 2023, there would be a surge in discussions about AI's common sense understanding, with debates on AI assistants and companions similar to past hype around self-driving cars and drone delivery.
- 📈 He foresaw the rise of multimodal Transformers with half a trillion parameters, costing millions to train, and consuming significant chip output, highlighting the exponential growth of AI.
- ⏳ Cokal also predicted that by 2024, the AI risk community would have shorter timelines, with many expecting a point of no return by 2029, influenced by the uncanny experience of conversing with AI chatbots.
- 🔍 OpenAI is currently working on automating interpretability research to understand AI decision-making, which aligns with Cokal's 2021 prediction.
- 🚀 Cokal's recent predictions include the release of GPT next by the end of 2024, an autonomous agent with enhanced capabilities in task completion and decision making.
- 🛍️ By 2025, AI is expected to become widely adopted as personal assistants, capable of performing various tasks, including making purchases and executing complex instructions, enhancing productivity and daily life management.
- 🧠 The emergence of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2026 is predicted to surpass human-level performance in most tasks, capable of rapid learning and problem-solving across diverse domains.
- 💥 ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) is predicted to emerge by 2030, with a 70% probability, potentially leading to an intelligence explosion and solving global complex challenges.
- 🤖 Elon Musk's Tesla aims to have useful humanoid robots in low production by 2023 and high production for other companies by 2026, indicating a trend towards humanoid robots in the workforce.
- 🌐 Whoever controls ASI will have access to powerful skills and technologies that may seem like magic to us, highlighting the significant impact of controlling such advanced AI systems.
Q & A
Who is Daniel Cokal and why are his predictions significant?
-Daniel Cokal is a former OpenAI employee who made several predictions in 2021 about AI's future that have been surprisingly accurate up to 2024. His significance lies in his ability to foresee trends and developments in the AI industry, which has implications for understanding the trajectory of AI technology.
What were some of the key predictions Daniel Cokal made in 2021?
-Daniel Cokal predicted the hype around AI in 2023, the development of multimodal Transformers with half a trillion parameters, and the AI risk community's shorter timelines with a point of no return possibly by 2029. He also foresaw the community beginning a project to automate interpretability work.
What does 'multimodal Transformers' refer to in the context of Cokal's predictions?
-Multimodal Transformers refer to AI models that can process and understand multiple types of data inputs, such as text, images, and audio. Cokal predicted that these models would become significantly larger and more powerful, costing hundreds of millions of dollars to train.
What is the significance of the year 2024 in Cokal's predictions?
-In 2024, Cokal predicted the release of GPT next, an autonomous agent with enhanced capabilities in task completion and decision-making. This prediction is significant as it suggests a major leap in AI's ability to perform complex tasks autonomously.
What does 'GPT next' signify in the context of AI development?
-GPT next signifies the next generation of AI models beyond GPT-3 and GPT-4. It is expected to represent a significant improvement in AI capabilities, potentially including the ability to act as an autonomous agent.
How does Cokal's prediction for 2025 align with current AI development trends?
-Cokal's prediction for 2025 suggests that AI will become widely adopted as personal assistants, capable of performing various tasks including making purchases and executing complex instructions. This aligns with current trends towards more integrated and capable AI assistants in daily life and work.
What is the significance of the predicted AGI emergence in 2026 according to Cokal?
-The predicted AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) emergence in 2026 is significant as it suggests that AI will surpass human-level performance in most tasks, capable of rapid learning and problem-solving across diverse domains. This would represent a major milestone in AI development.
What is the potential impact of AGI on global challenges according to Cokal's predictions?
-According to Cokal, AGI has the potential to solve global complex challenges and drive unprecedented technological progress. This suggests that AGI could play a transformative role in addressing issues such as climate change, healthcare, and economic inequality.
What are the implications of the predicted ASI emergence by 2030?
-The emergence of ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) by 2030 implies a rapid advancement in AI capabilities, potentially leading to an intelligence explosion. This could result in AI systems that are significantly more intelligent than humans, with the ability to solve complex problems and innovate at an unprecedented rate.
How might Nanobots be transformative according to Cokal's predictions?
-Nanobots, as predicted by Cokal, could revolutionize medicine, manufacturing, and environmental remediation due to their microscopic size and ability to perform tasks at a molecular level. They might emerge as a transformative technology if ASI is not achieved by 2027 to 2028.
What does Elon Musk's response to the humanoid robot predictions indicate about the future of robotics?
-Elon Musk's response, stating that Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production by the next year and high production for other companies by 2026, indicates a trend towards increased development and adoption of humanoid robots in the workforce, suggesting a future where such robots are economically viable and effective.
Outlines
🔮 Predictions on AI's Future and Their Accuracy
The script discusses the eerily accurate predictions made by a former OpenAI employee, Daniel Kokal, in 2021 about the progression of AI up to 2024 and beyond. It highlights the prediction of a surge in AI hype in 2023, the development of multimodal Transformers, and the AI risk community's shorter timelines for AI advancements. The script also mentions the prediction of AI systems automating interpretability work, which aligns with current OpenAI projects. The video aims to underscore the importance of paying attention to Kokal's future predictions for AI.
🤖 The Evolution of AI: From Personal Assistants to AGI
This paragraph delves into the predicted timeline for AI development, starting with the widespread adoption of AI as personal assistants by 2025, capable of complex tasks and enhancing productivity. It mentions the potential trademark implications for GPT 6, suggesting it may involve AI agents. The script then predicts the emergence of AGI by 2026, capable of rapid learning and problem-solving, and the subsequent development of ASI by 2027, which could lead to an intelligence explosion. The video emphasizes the exponential growth of AI and the potential for transformative technologies like Nanobots and humanoid robots.
🚀 The Acceleration of AI and Technological Advancements
The script explores the implications of continuous AI research advancement, suggesting that the development of AGI could lead to ASI much faster than anticipated. It discusses the potential for millions of copies of AGI working towards ASI, resulting in an exponential increase in AI research output. The video also touches on the possibility of ASI solving global challenges and driving technological progress, with a 70% probability of ASI emerging by 2030. It highlights the potential of Nanobots and humanoid robots as transformative technologies, with Elon Musk's Tesla promising useful human robots by 2026.
🌐 The Societal Impact of AI and Future Predictions
The final paragraph contemplates the societal impact of AI, suggesting that whoever controls ASI will wield technologies that seem like magic to us today. It discusses the power dynamics that could arise from controlling AGI and the potential for rapid advancements in technology, including humanoid robots. The script also addresses the viewer's engagement, inviting thoughts on the predictions and their implications for the future, while emphasizing the transformative nature of upcoming technologies and their potential to impact everyone.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡AI Predictions
💡Exponential Growth
💡Multimodal Transformers
💡Singularity
💡AI Interpretability
💡Autonomous Agents
💡Personal Assistants
💡AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
💡ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence)
💡Nanobots
💡Humanoid Robots
Highlights
A former OpenAI employee's predictions from 2021 have shown remarkable accuracy up to 2024-2025, and he has made new predictions for the next 5 years of AI.
In 2023, there was an intense hype around AI's common sense understanding, with debates on AI assistants and companions similar to past discussions on self-driving cars and drone delivery.
The prediction of multimodal Transformers with half a trillion parameters, costing hundreds of millions to train, and their impact on Nvidia's chip output was made in 2021 with startling accuracy.
AI risk community timelines have shortened, with many expecting a point of no return by 2029 due to mega Transformers and the uncanny experience of conversing with chatbots.
OpenAI is working on automating interpretability research to understand AI decision-making, which was predicted in 2021.
Predictions for 2024 include the release of GPT next, an autonomous agent with enhanced capabilities in task completion and decision making.
GPT next is a real project, with stages outlined in an OpenAI secret presentation, indicating a progression towards a significant model release in late 2024.
Reliability and scale are key factors for the development of AI agents, which are expected to perform well across various tasks.
By 2025, AI is predicted to become widely adopted as personal assistants, capable of performing tasks like making purchases and enhancing productivity.
The GPT 6 trademark includes artificial intelligence agents, suggesting that GPT 6 will likely involve AI agents aligning with predictions for 2025.
In 2026, the emergence of AGI, surpassing human-level performance in most tasks, is predicted, with rapid learning and problem-solving capabilities.
ASI, or artificial super intelligence, is predicted to emerge by 2030 with a 70% probability, potentially leading to an intelligence explosion.
Nanobots might emerge as transformative technology by 2027-2028 if ASI is not achieved, with potential applications in medicine, manufacturing, and environmental remediation.
Humanoid robots are predicted for 2029, facing physical challenges due to the difficulty of mastering the physical world and high costs.
Elon Musk's response to predictions indicates Tesla aims to have useful human robots in production by 2026.
Control of ASI is suggested to grant godlike powers, with the potential to develop technologies that seem like magic to us today.
The future of AI and technology is expected to have a significant impact on society, with developments in humanoid robots and ASI.
Transcripts
so a former open AI employee has made
some predictions in 2021 that have been
scarily accurate up until 2024 2025 he
also recently made some predictions
about the next 5 years of AI that I
think you need to pay attention to but
before I actually dive into his
predictions I want to sayate that
firstly we're going to be taking a look
at some of the predictions he made in
2021 because they actually describe
what's happening right now with an eerie
sense of accuracy so let's take a look
at some of Daniel cokal prediction one
of the first predictions that he made in
2021 was he said that in 2023 there's
going to be insane hype he said people
are going to be continuing to talk about
how these things have common sense
understanding or do they and there's
also going to be lots of bitter think
pieces arguing the opposite and how AI
assistants and companions are just
around the corner it's like self-driving
cars and drone delivery all over again
you can see right here making a
prediction like this stating that you
know the multimodal Transformers and now
even bigger the biggest are about half a
trillion parameters costing hundreds of
millions of dollars to train and a whole
year and sucking up a significant
fraction of the chip output of Nvidia
this is a remarkable prediction to make
in 2021 with such startling accuracy
remember predicting the future is
actually hardest in the AI industry
because this is something that does grow
exponentially and it's very hard for
humans to visualize exponential now he
also made another prediction about 2020
4 the year that we're currently living
in right now and looking at this
prediction it's fair to say that this is
incredible so it's clear here that he
says the AI risk Community has shorter
timelines now with almost half thinking
some sort of point of no return will
probably happen by 2013 this is partly
due to various arguments percolating
around and partly due to these mega
transformers and The Uncanny experience
of conversing with their chatbot version
and what's crazy is that making this
prediction in
2021 3 years later in 2024 many people
are actually all stating that yes by
2029 sl230 or by the end of this decade
there is going to be the singularity
that is a really interesting bet to make
in 2021 of course it's not a bet it's a
speculative blog post but what I do want
to state is that it's remarkably
accurate and that's why when we look
into the future on the predictions that
he's made about the coming years 2026
2027 2028 we definitely should just
think that they're that crazy but that
there might be some truth to them of
course he also says that the community
begins a big project to build an AI
system that can automate
interpretability work it seems maybe
doable and very useful since pouring
over neuron visualization is boring and
takes a lot of person hour now what's
crazy is that this is exactly what open
AI are working on they're actually
working on how they can actually
automate This interpretability research
and basically all that is is that is
just research that allows you to look
inside of what an AI is actually doing
and understand the decisions it's making
so now let's take a look at some of the
predictions that he recently made okay
so let's take a look at this and this
was a couple of months ago so this is a
screenshot I'll leave a link down in the
description below but one of the
predictions he's making recently about
is 2024 so he says GPT next released of
GPT next an autonomous agent likely to
be available by the end of 2024 this
model is expected to be a significant
improvement over previous versions with
enhanced capabilities in task completion
and decision making now I personally
don't think that we're going to be
getting agents this year of course there
is some Nuance to this it could happen a
year later either way a year later is
still pretty fast but what's actually
interesting about this is that GPT next
is actually a real thing if we actually
take a look here at this graph released
from an open AI secret presentation we
can see that there are three stages here
and of course the final stage being
something absolutely crazy we've got the
gpt3 era which we had then of course
we've got the GPT 4 era which we're
currently in and of course you can see
just before we're about to go crazy into
this GPT next era now this is probably
going to be at the later stage of 2024
which is why I keep telling you guys
just wait until november/december there
might be a giant model release such as
GPT next that showcases what these
models are truly able to do now of
course it's not just open ey that's
going to do this remember they're not
the the only company that operates in
the AI space we've got companies like
Google and meta that are still playing
in that space and can release models
unexpectedly that surpass previous
what's crazy about this is that I don't
think that this is going to be an
autonomous agent although I could be
wrong AI breakthroughs can happen all
the time that can literally speed up
development turn fold but the thing is
is that from what I've seen in
interviews and discussions surrounding
development of AI agents reliability is
still a factor and scale is still a
factor for example if you're trying to
get agents to do very well on certain
tasks the problem is that agents need
reliable actions over many different
tasks meaning that if you mess up just
like 2% of the time if you continue to
perform actions where you mess up 2% of
the time over the long term this
actually means that you are very
inaccurate so the point here is that
reliability and scale are going to
increase reliability in these models we
then take a look at 2025 this is where
they speak about AI becoming widely
adopted as personal assistants these
agents will be capable of Performing
various tasks including making purchases
they will understand and execute complex
instructions significantly enhancing
productivity and daily life management
for users now what's also fascinating
about this is that we do know that this
is most likely penciled in one of the
things that I looked at when I was
researching future models was I actually
looked at the trademark office for the
GPT 6 trade Mark and in the GPT 6
trademark interestingly enough what they
actually have in that trademark is they
have artificial intelligence agents and
basically that just essentially means
that GPT 6 is likely to be the product/
system that entails AI agents and this
makes sense because this also lines up
with Daniel's prediction of autonomous
agents being the year for 2025
considering the fact that each iteration
cycle probably takes 18 months and
considering GPT 5 is near Inc completion
the next cycle should be producing
reliable AI agents which are going to
completely transform certain parts of
the economy so I think that 2025 is most
certainly going to be an interesting
year because that is going to be where
we potentially towards the later end of
the year have reliable AI agents that
can perform tasks over longtime Horizons
I do think that it most likely might be
Google who works on agents first but I
wouldn't be surprised if open AI get
there too as there are some recent
developments that I will talk about in
new videos that are going to show you
these companies are a lot further ahead
than you may think now of course we have
a look at 2026 in
2026 this is of course a crazy
prediction but when you actually look at
the rest of the predictions it's not
that crazy and the reason I say that is
because 2026 having a super intelligence
AGI or the emergence of AGI that
surpasses human level performance in
most tasks is only 2 years away 2 years
away from you know transformational
technology seems like such a short time
like I said before humans have a bad
perception of exponential growth so you
can see right here that it says this AGI
will be capable of Rapid learning and
problem solving across diverse domains
and it's predicted that within 30 days
of deployment this AGI could Rel a level
to hundreds of humans experts now I
think this is rather fascinating because
like I said before one of the major
predictions that I've looked at was the
AI prediction one of the specific dates
that I've continued to see from various
sources and this isn't just online
speculations or online websites these
are actually research individuals people
working at top Labs within openai Google
deepmind and anthropic so the three
Frontier Labs the main dates that I see
are 2027 to the latest being 2030 for
AGI so 2026 is essentially just one year
earlier and it's not out of the question
that this could potentially happen of
course there are many different things
that could happen between then there
could be issues related to scaling there
could be some physical limits on what
we're able to do but in 2 years of
development towards the end of 2026
considering the fact that there is a lot
more investment a lot more competition
now it's not just the Western companies
that are focusing on this we've got
China that's there it will be
interesting to see what company manages
to get to AGI first now we're going to
go into 2027 so 2027 is where things
start to get even crazier so now 2027
does seem a bit crazy for artificial
super intelligence but if we do take a
look back and consider F the fact that
if 2026 does actually get us to AGI then
getting to ASI wouldn't take that long
because getting to ASI after AGI isn't
that long considering you're essentially
automating AI research pretty much 100
fold think of it like this currently
we're moving at human speed meaning that
right now in in order to conduct
research there are a lot of things that
we have to do for example a human wakes
up they have to get to work maybe they
drink their coffee then they work all
day then they go home and they do other
tasks that's probably about 6 to 8 hours
of deep SL focused work but if you do
have for example an AGI level system
which is on par with a human you could
theoretically leave it running for 24
hours meaning that you're likely to
three times the output in a single day
but think of that over the course of a
year sometimes humans get ill things
happen they unable to work there are
things in the economy but if we do get
an autonomous system that is able to
continuously Advance AI research by
itself along with a few oversights from
Human intervention I think it's going to
be rather fascinating with how quick
these developments could take place and
you have to understand that the main
area where the compute is going to be
focused on is of course pouring into
just duplicating these AI systems for
example you're not just going to have
one smart AI system that is something
that most people don't real realize
you're going to have millions and
millions of copies of this artificial
general intelligence that is working
towards artificial super intelligence
which means that kind of exponential
increase in terms of output towards AI
research is going to be absolutely
astounding for us to even comprehend so
you can see right here it says
transition to ASI rapid advancement in
AI capabilities potentially leading to
an intelligence explosion there's a 70%
probability of ASI emerging by 2030 and
this super intelligence is expected to
solve Global complex challenges and
drive unprecedented technological prog
so this will be rather fascinating a 70%
chance of ASI emerging by 2030 and
what's going to be interesting is how
much those predictions change as we move
towards that final date towards the end
of the decade and whilst yes this might
not happen tomorrow it might not even
happen in 2026 but but it is definitely
a possibility and when that does occur
which I do think it will it's going to
be a truly transformative time for the
economy now what comes after artificial
super intelligence because many people
just think okay we're either going to be
dead or we're going to be living in a
technical Utopia but one of the things
that most people don't realize because
it's still in its infancy in terms of
research and development is of course
Nanobots so Nanobots are microscopic
robots that have a variety of different
applications and use cases that could
revolutionize many different Industries
and it does say here here that if ASI is
not achieve Nanobots might emerge as
transformative technology there's a 30%
chance of significant nanobot
development by 2027 to 2028 and these
microscopic robots could revolutionize
medicine manufacturing and environmental
remediation of course Nanobots can
literally change environments change
humans it's kind of strange how that
sci-fi kind of works but once again when
we kind of take a look at these AI
systems and if we were to grab them and
show them to someone from 10 years ago
their mind would be blown I mean the
first time I saw chat GPT I was
definitely blown by what it was able to
do so this is of course crazy until it's
not crazy but of course essentially the
logic here is that if we have artificial
super intelligence it won't be hard for
artificial super intelligence to develop
ways and methods for Nanobots to
actually be commercially viable and for
them to be economically viable in terms
of actually working and changing the
environment and of course if that does
work that is going to have remarkable
implications for society now of course
we do have of course 2029 being humanoid
robots now I think the reason that 2029
is the year for humanoid robots is
because humanoids are facing the
physical problem okay and that is
because the physical world is a lot
harder to master than the digital world
this is because collecting data in the
physical world is timec consuming and
right now we simply just don't have
enough data to make these robots
actually work well and be still
effective now of course the other
problem with humanoid robots is that
they're just really expensive like some
of the humanoid robots that you do see
are upwards of
$250,000 I mean if you're going to make
something like that available to the
average person who wants one or even to
certain companies they have to actually
be commercially SL economically viable
in the sense that they're going to be
using that over a human unless that kind
of robot is you know extraordinarily
fast and is able to work for 20 hours on
a single charge people are not going to
be spending
$250,000 on a single robot they're
better off using the standard robots the
ones that are in factories those single
arms that are able to do repetitive
tasks again and again or those other
robots like the factories and Amazon
where you can simply do picking and
packing and just moving around boxes now
of course if these humanoid robots are
developed and if ASI is here that kind
of research is likely to speed up what
we do in all areas and one of the areas
is going to be humanoid robots which
means that potentially we could be
seeing embodiment or even better
embodiment than we currently do have of
current humanoids which would bring us
to a very sci-fi level that many people
currently do fear now I do not think
that that is how you know humans go
extinct a robot runs off into the wild
and just kills all of us but I do think
that this kind of embodiment is going to
be there sometime in the future as
robotics breakthroughs get there now
what's also interesting is that Elon
Musk actually did respond to this
prediction and he said that Tesla will
have genuinely useful human robots in
low production in Tesla internal next
year and hopefully high production for
other companies in 2026 so it is clear
that there is a trend towards humanoid
robots being increasingly part of the
workforce and they actually do work
pretty effectively if we take a look at
what they're able to do in factories but
of course this is something that is very
specific and it's very Niche so it's not
something that can be applied to
everything now with the Tesla bot I do
think it's pretty effective because if
you've seen the demos it's incredible at
how effective it is to move but of
course there are a few limitations on
what it can do with regards to mobility
and many other factors now what I'm also
going to show you guys here because I
did actually make a video on this quite
some time ago I made a 30-minute video
going over every single point from
Daniel kokalo in this prediction but
this one basically does say a few things
that did have me quite surprised with
what the predictions were because it
shows us that if technology manages to
continue to move at its current rate
we're going to see some incredible
things and one of the things that I
never forgot was he says that whoever
controls ASI will have access to a
spread of powerful skills and abilities
and will be able to build and wield
technologies that seem like magic to us
just as modern technology would seem
like magic to Medieval and this is
something that's still hard for me to
grasp even as someone who understands
that concept like I know that right now
if I grabbed like my phone and I went
back to Medieval Times that technology
would seem like magic to them okay and
you know when you think about it a phone
is kind of magic you know but of course
I can't imagine there being technology
that would seem like magic to me it just
feels as if we're at the limit to where
technology can be but of course I know
that this is not true and this is just
you know emotions or whatever but
thinking about that statement the fact
that they're going to have Godlike
Powers over who doesn't control ASI is a
rather fascinating statement because it
implies that whoever gets the AGI first
is probably going to have power over
those who don't and of course at the top
here you can see that probably whoever
controls AGI will be able to use it to
get to ASI shortly thereafter maybe in
another year give or take a year so it's
pretty crazy on what's going on here and
I'm not going to lie guys there is a lot
of stuff coming in the future that you
should definitely be paying attention to
because all of these Technologies are
going to impact you in one way or
another so if you enjoyed this video let
me know what you think your predictions
are do you think his predictions are
pessimistic do you think they are too
optimistic let me know what you think
about the predictions for the future I
would love to know if you think the
future is going to be slower than we
think or if it's going to be faster than
we think that being said if you enjoyed
the video don't forget to leave a like
comment down below and I'll see you all
in the next one
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