The Future of Calgary Real Estate will SCARE You. My 2024 Market Prediction.
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the contrasting effects of Calgary's booming real estate market on homeowners and renters. While homeowners benefit from increased property values due to high immigration and job opportunities, renters face rising costs and job insecurity. The speaker analyzes 2023's housing stats, revealing a significant price increase driven by supply and demand. Predictions for 2024 suggest continued high demand, low inventory, and possibly falling interest rates, which could further inflate housing prices. The script advises viewers to prepare financially and make informed decisions based on their individual circumstances.
Takeaways
- 🏙️ The city is experiencing a boom with increased property values due to high migration for affordable homes and jobs.
- 📈 Homeowners have benefited from increased net worth, while renters face higher costs and less job security, creating a 'Tale of Two Cities'.
- 📊 Calgary's real estate board underestimated the average benchmark price for 2023, which ended up being $570,000 instead of the predicted $526,000.
- 🌐 Strong immigration and low housing supply have led to a significant increase in housing prices, despite high interest rates and lower job growth.
- 📉 There was a slight decrease in sales year-over-year, but this was offset by a 30% increase in rent, making purchasing more attractive.
- 💡 Affordability concerns have shifted buyer demand towards more affordable housing options like row housing and apartment-style condos.
- 📉 Persistently low supply levels in 2023, averaging 44% below the 10-year average, heavily favored sellers and affected pricing and availability.
- 🏘️ Calgary is still considered a bargain in the context of the Canadian real estate market, but it's starting to lose its affordability edge.
- 📈 Apartment-style condominiums saw the greatest growth in sales and pricing, increasing by over 133% compared to the previous year.
- 🌐 High immigration is expected to continue into 2024, maintaining the strong demand for housing.
- 💰 The speaker predicts that housing prices will continue to rise in 2024, possibly by more than the Calgary real estate board's prediction of 10%.
Q & A
What has been the impact of increased migration on homeowners and renters in the city?
-Homeowners have experienced increased property values and more net worth due to high migration, while renters have faced increased costs, less affordability, and less job security.
Why did the Calgary real estate board's initial prediction for the average benchmark price in 2023 turn out to be incorrect?
-The board underestimated the impact of strong immigration and low housing supply, which led to a significant increase in housing prices, finishing the year at $570,000 instead of the predicted $526,000.
What factors have contributed to the increase in housing prices despite higher interest rates and lower job growth?
-The strong demand from immigration has outpaced the downward pressures of higher interest rates and lower job growth, resulting in a continued rise in housing prices.
How did the rental market's increase impact the decision to purchase a home in 2023?
-The 30% increase in rent made purchasing a home more attractive as it would result in lower monthly costs compared to paying the increased rent.
What was the general trend in sales for the Calgary real estate market in 2023 compared to the previous year?
-There was a slight decrease in sales year-over-year, but the market still supported 27,600 transactions, helped by the increased rent which made home ownership more appealing.
Why did the demand for row housing and apartment-style condos increase in 2023?
-The high cost of living and affordability concerns led to a shift in demand towards more affordable housing options like row housing and apartment-style condos.
What was the average supply level of homes in 2023 according to the Calgary real estate board?
-The supply levels in 2023 were persistently low, averaging 44% below the 10-year average, which heavily favored sellers and affected pricing and availability.
How does Calgary's affordability compare to other major Canadian cities like Vancouver, Toronto, and Victoria?
-While Calgary is still more affordable than Vancouver, Toronto, and Victoria, it is starting to lose its edge as it now takes 47.1% of a household's income to service the mortgage debt, up 8% from the previous year.
What was the performance of the apartment-style condominium market segment in 2023, and why was it an outlier?
-The apartment-style condominium market had more sales than the previous year and experienced over a 133% impact on pricing, making it an outlier due to its increased demand and relatively more affordable nature.
What are the three nearby markets outside of Calgary that have become more attractive to homebuyers?
-The nearby markets of Airdrie, Okotoks, and Cochrane have become more attractive due to their affordability compared to living in Calgary itself.
What are the three key factors that the speaker believes will influence the real estate market in 2024?
-The speaker believes that continued high immigration, the lack of inventory to meet demand, and potential decreases in interest rates will be the key factors influencing the real estate market in 2024.
What prediction does the speaker make for the real estate market in 2024, and why?
-The speaker predicts that prices will go up, possibly by more than 10%, due to continued high demand from immigration, limited inventory, and potentially lower interest rates, which could inflate asset prices.
What advice does the speaker give to potential homebuyers who are concerned about affordability and timing in the current market?
-The speaker advises potential homebuyers to not give up, to take steps to prepare for the future such as saving for a down payment or improving credit ratings, and to make decisions based on their individual financial situations rather than external pressure.
Outlines
🏙️ Housing Market Dynamics in Calgary
The script discusses the dual impact of population growth and economic factors on the Calgary housing market. It highlights the increase in property values for homeowners due to high migration in search of affordable homes and jobs. However, it also points out the challenges faced by renters with increased living costs and job insecurity. The video aims to analyze the market trends of the past year and predict the direction of the market in 2024. The speaker unpacks housing stats from the Calgary real estate board, noting the significant increase in housing prices due to strong immigration and low housing supply. The script also addresses the discrepancy between the board's initial predictions and the actual average benchmark price at the end of the year.
📈 Market Analysis and Predictions for 2024
This paragraph delves into the specifics of the Calgary housing market, noting a decrease in sales year-over-year but an increase in prices, particularly due to a 30% rise in rent, making homeownership more attractive. The speaker discusses the shift in demand towards more affordable housing types like row housing and apartment-style condos. A quote from the Calgary real estate board emphasizes the persistently low supply levels, which heavily favored sellers and affected pricing and availability. The paragraph also compares Calgary's housing affordability with other Canadian cities, noting that while Calgary is still relatively affordable, the cost of homeownership has risen. The speaker predicts that the high demand, coupled with potential decreases in interest rates, will likely lead to further increases in housing prices in 2024.
💼 Navigating the Housing Market with Financial Prudence
The final paragraph offers advice to potential homebuyers and sellers, emphasizing the importance of not succumbing to fear of missing out (FOMO) and making financially sound decisions. The speaker encourages viewers to consider their financial situation and not to rush into buying or selling房产 without proper consideration. They suggest steps that can be taken to prepare for future housing market conditions, such as saving for a down payment, setting up a financial plan, and ensuring good credit standing. The speaker also offers a no-pressure consultation for viewers to discuss their individual situations and make informed decisions about their housing needs.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Affordability
💡Property Values
💡Migration
💡Net Worth
💡Supply and Demand
💡Housing Stats Package
💡Interest Rates
💡Job Security
💡Real Estate Market
💡Inventory
💡Financial Future
Highlights
The city is experiencing a boom with increased property values due to high migration for affordable homes and jobs.
The past year has been a 'Tale of Two Cities' for homeowners and renters, with homeowners benefiting from increased net worth and renters facing increased costs.
Calgary is in uncharted territory with record migration and people leaving the country, making predictions for 2024 challenging.
The Calgary real estate board underestimated the 2023 average benchmark price by nearly 10%, showing the unpredictability of the market.
Supply and demand dynamics, particularly strong immigration, have led to a significant increase in housing prices despite high interest rates.
A decrease in sales year-over-year was offset by a 30% increase in rent, making home purchase more attractive for many.
Affordability concerns have shifted buyer demand towards more affordable housing options like row housing and apartment-style condos.
Persistently low supply levels in 2023, especially for homes under $1 million, heavily favored sellers and affected pricing and availability.
Calgary's affordability is being challenged, with the cost of owning a home now requiring 47.1% of a household's income.
Comparatively, Calgary remains a more affordable option in the Canadian real estate market despite recent affordability declines.
Sales declines in semi-detached, detached, and row housing markets were due to a lack of available properties, leading to price increases.
Apartment-style condominiums saw a 133% increase in sales compared to the previous year, making it the market outlier.
Surrounding markets outside of Calgary are attracting buyers due to more affordable living options, impacting local market conditions.
High immigration is expected to continue driving demand in the real estate market in 2024, potentially outpacing supply.
Inventory is not expected to increase significantly to meet market demands due to construction lag times and trade shortages.
Interest rates are predicted to either stabilize or decrease in 2024, potentially inflating asset prices and further driving up the real estate market.
The speaker predicts a 10% increase in real estate prices for 2024, possibly even higher, and advises potential buyers to prepare financially.
Financial advice is given to not give up on the real estate market and to make informed decisions based on individual circumstances rather than external pressure.
A calendly link is provided for no-pressure consultations to help individuals determine if now is the right time to buy or sell property.
Transcripts
our city is booming people are moving
here every day in search of affordable
homes and great paying jobs and over
this last year that's meant an increase
in property values for homeowners
everywhere but there is another side to
that story this past year has been A
Tale of Two Cities if you're a homeowner
you've enjoyed increased property values
more net worth due to the high migration
of people to our province in search of
affordable homes and high-paying jobs if
you're a renter you've experienced
increased costs less affordability and
less job security that's what makes this
different from other years it's not
really a feel-good story on one hand
Canada is experiencing record migration
and on another hand we're also seeing
record levels of people choosing to
leave this country here in Calgary we're
in Uncharted Territory and that's why in
this video we're going to be taking a
look at what's happened this past year
in order to lead us to today and what we
can expect to to find in 2024 that's
right I'll be making predictions of
where I believe the market will be 12
months from now just yesterday I
received the housing stats package for
2023 from the Calgary real estate board
and as I unpacked it it became clear
that there is a general theme strong
immigration consistently low Supply in
the housing market led to a significant
increase in housing prices now I know
many of you listening to that are going
to think that's insane like how can
people afford Homes at these prices
where are all these jobs that support
this well if you feel that way you've
got company the Calgary real estate
board they felt the exact same way at
the beginning of last year they looked
at everything they thought of the high
interest rates and they said hey you
know what by the end of 2023 housing
will be roughly
$526,000 for an average Benchmark price
how wrong were they off by nearly 10% it
actually finished the year at
$570,000 how's it possible that they got
it so wrong how how can house prices
increase so quickly at a time when it
feels like no one can afford them well
the answer is deceivingly simple supply
and demand so we might look at things
like higher interest rates and lower job
growth as a reason that housing prices
should drop but when the demand from
immigration is so strong that it
outpaces those downward pressures it's
going to mean that pricing is still
going to rise so will that continue in
2024 well to get an answer to that let's
take a deeper look into what happened
last year if we take a broad view of the
market first thing that we'll see is
that there was a slight decrease in
sales year-over-year 2022 was a banner
year and 2023 was a little bit less but
still
27,600 helped support Calgary real
estate prices last year this is because
rent actually increased 30% last year
and that means that many people were
actually better off purchasing a home
because it would have lower monthly
costs than just paying that increased
rent affordability is an issue that's on
the minds of every Canadian you can see
it in news articles you can definitely
read it in the comment section below
videos like this one but people are
concerned with the High Cost of Living
and that has had an impact on the
Calgary real estate market it has
dampened demand to a certain degree but
it actually didn't kill it it just
shifted the demand of home buyers to
more affordable products so Row Housing
and apartment style condos they're the
ones that experienced the greatest
growth this past year but once again it
was Supply that drove the real estate
market in 2023 in fact here's a direct
quote from the Calgary real estate board
the year 2023 was marked by persistently
low Supply levels averaging 44% below
the 10year average such a tight Supply
especially for homes priced below $1
million led to a market that heavily
favored sellers affecting pricing and
availability that is a quote saying that
homes under a million dollar the more
affordable segment are the ones that
still moved quickly now if you're from
Calgary that doesn't feel affordable but
I want you to zoom out for a second and
look at all of the Canadian real estate
market relatively speaking Calgary is
still a bargain however in a recent
article the RBC analyst noted that
Calgary is starting to lose a bit of its
Edge it now takes
47.1% of a household's income just to
service the debt on their mortgage
that's up 8% from just a year ago now
that's not great news but here's a
direct quote from that article that
outli how Calgary Compares with other
cities while the bar is rising for home
ownership in the western City of Calgary
the already dire situation got worse
worse for buyers last quarter in the
Vancouver area where the cost of owning
a home reached an astounding
102.6 per of income in Toronto
affordability deteriorated to its worst
level on record at
84.1% with Victoria rounding out the top
three at
76.1% after backtracking on Improvement
in the first and second quarters and
it's those kind of numbers that are
driving more people to Calgary in fact
let's take a look at the different areas
and market segments here just a brief
overview so you get an understanding of
where things are at we saw a sales
decline in the semi detached detached
and the row hosing markets but that was
basically because there was just nothing
for sale and so in each one of those
segments we saw increases in price we're
now at almost $700,000 for a single
family home here in Calgary now it's the
apartment style condominium that was the
real outlier in the data in fact this
was the one segment that actually had
more sales than the year prior and it
impacted pricing by over
133% it's also important to note that
we've got three markets that are just
outside of Calgary arry Okat coses and
Cochran and many people choose those
destinations because they're a little
bit more affordable than living right in
Calgary and each of those areas
obviously also performed very very well
because of their affordability it kept
market conditions very very tight and it
meant an increase in housing value as
well
now that we understand what drove price
is in
2023 we can start to look at what might
happen next year I'd like to ask you
three questions to see if we can figure
this out together the first one is
immigration will we continue to see high
immigration in
2024 well based on the unaffordability
of other housing markets and based on
the high immigration into Canada I still
believe that that is going to create
that same strong demand that sameet
Market Force that drove us last year is
going to carry us right through this
year so the next question is are we
going to see an increase in inventory to
meet the needs of that demand well the
truth is I don't think so you see there
is a long lag time between getting
building permits and organizing trades
which are really hard to find these days
and then building properties all just to
meet the demands of today so that could
take a year or two well the other way
that demand could be met is if more home
owners decided to sell their proper
properties and maybe move into another
property but in reality that's sort of a
net neutral gain they sell one they take
another and often times people aren't
bringing those properties to the market
because they're worried that there's
nothing else out there that might meet
their needs so it's for those reasons
that I just don't see inventory coming
back to the market at a pace that's
going to be able to offset those High
demands and the final question is what's
going to happen to interest rates what
do you think everything that I'm reading
is telling me that we're at the peak for
interest rates the Bank of Canada does
not appear to have any appetite to
increase interest rates in 2024 in fact
most analysts are betting on anywhere
from three to five cuts next year now
what will happen if interest rates
actually lower this is what scares me
about the 2024 real estate market is
that so many people are going to sit on
the sidelines and wait for properties to
drop and I don't believe it's going to
happen so many people are waiting for a
situation or a time where it feels more
fair so many people are looking at the
price of everything and saying that the
Canadian real estate market is a house
of cards just waiting to fall down but
is that true look I don't have all the
answers but I do see one thing to be
true people who aren't paying attention
right now are heading into a perfect
storm immigration is likely to continue
that demand will likely stay high
interest rates are either going to stay
where they're at increase just a touch
or likely come down significantly
inflating the price of all assets and so
if interest rates do fall and I believe
they will and I think they should it
will likely mean that there'll be even
more people chasing those few homes that
come to Market so I predict prices are
going to go up I'm actually in agreement
with the Calgary real estate board
that's saying 10% however I'd only add
in this I'd be surprised if it isn't
much more than that I know many people
have looked at this situation and felt
like they'll never be able to afford
real estate but if it is important to
you and I think it should be because it
is so vital to the financial futures for
so many families there are steps that
you can take today to start setting
yourself up for that future whether it's
saving a little bit each month towards
that down payment or setting up a
financial plan or having a safety net in
place for when something comes along and
surprises you maybe it's as simple as
getting your credit rating in good
status because that will make such an
impact on the mortgage terms that you
will get when you are ready but my
message to you is don't give up and when
the time is right don't feel pressured
don't let fomo family friends some
doomsayer YouTuber or some realtor
convince you to buy at a time that it's
not quite right for you now I understand
for some of you it's going to be hard to
listen to a realtor on YouTube because
you might be thinking Brad you just want
me to sell my home right now or you want
me to buy a home right now you want me
to take some action but the truth is I
actually don't in fact for some of you
now would be a terrible time to buy if
you're going to be house poor if you
have job insecurity I implore you please
do not let fomo drive you to make some
poor financial decision if you have a
strong financial position if you have a
great job and if you have the means
don't let that stop you from buying in a
market like this every everyone's
situation is different it's individual
and so if you'd like to explore yours a
little bit more we actually have a
calendly link in the description below
where you can book A Time as a home
buyer or a home seller to get a no
pressure consultation absolutely free of
charge where we look at your situation
and help you decide if now could be the
right time now we got a ton of more
great content on this channel so we got
a playlist right here if you want to
check it out and if you never want to
miss another video or if you want to
just check back in a year from now and
give me heck for missing on my
prediction just subsscribe
Weitere ähnliche Videos ansehen
Vietnam's Real Estate Market Keeps DROPPING, Rents go CRAZIER!!
Zillow CEO on Housing Market, Rentals and Fed Rate Cuts
Calgary Housing Market July 2024: Sales Dip & Inventory Rises
The Canadian Housing Crisis Explained
Watch This Video Again In 5 Years!
The Epicenter Of The Next Housing Crash: Austin, Texas
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)