【中字】新加坡前外长杨荣文访谈:不是中国不能,而是他们不想!
Summary
TLDRThe discussion addresses the U.S. view of China as a significant competitor and potential threat to its global dominance. The speaker highlights the importance of understanding China's long history and cultural context to avoid missteps that could lead to conflict. Emphasizing China's non-expansionist nature and historical patience, the conversation contrasts Western perceptions with China's actual strategic approach. The role of Europe in maintaining global balance and the complex issue of Taiwan are also explored, underscoring the need for informed and strategic diplomacy to prevent unnecessary tensions.
Takeaways
- 🌏 The US sees China as its primary global rival and threat to its dominance, which has led to a bipartisan consensus on the need to contain China.
- 🔍 The speaker suggests that the US approach to China is misguided and based on a misunderstanding of China's history and cultural underpinnings.
- 🏛 China is historically not expansionist; its homogeneity and cultural comfort with its own people make the incorporation of non-Chinese people troublesome.
- 🕊️ The speaker, being ethnic Chinese and from Singapore, believes that China does not see the benefit in conquering foreign lands or imposing its values on others.
- 📚 Chinese patience and long-term perspective stem from their deep connection to history, which influences their approach to current affairs.
- 🏙️ The hope for China to adopt Western-style liberal democracy is unrealistic, given its long history of autocratic rule and centralized governance.
- 🌐 Europe's role in the US-China dynamic is significant; maintaining a balanced stance could prevent conflict between the two superpowers.
- 🏴 Taiwan is a matter of historical justice for China, and the use of force is not ruled out if unification is obstructed by external forces.
- 🤝 Europe's position on Taiwan should be informed by a deep understanding of history to avoid inadvertently entering a geopolitical minefield.
- 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding China's nature and history to avoid actions that could lead to tragedy.
- 🚀 China's economic growth and opening up are likely to continue, driven by the desire of its people to improve their living standards and the country's potential to become a dominant global economy.
Q & A
What is the current US perspective on China?
-The current US perspective views China as a threat to US dominance in the world, rather than a territorial threat.
Why is the US approach to China considered dangerous?
-The US approach is considered dangerous because the democratic electorate's passions can get out of control, potentially leading to conflicts, especially if incidents like casualties in the South China Sea occur.
How should the US approach its relationship with China?
-The US should understand the nature of the challenge posed by China, considering its history and philosophical underpinnings, to ensure actions lead to success rather than tragedy.
What makes China unique in terms of its civilization and national identity?
-China's uniqueness lies in its long civilization and homogeneous population, deeply rooted in its culture, making it a very different civilization compared to regions like Europe.
Why is China not considered an expansionist nation?
-China is not considered expansionist because historically, it finds it troublesome to incorporate non-Chinese people into its realm and does not see profit in conquering foreign lands.
What is the Chinese approach to international relations, according to the speaker?
-China prefers not to impose its values on others and focuses on solving its own problems rather than trying to solve other nations' problems.
What role does patience play in Chinese civilization?
-Chinese patience comes from their long history, where events are viewed within the context of centuries, and actions are often influenced by historical precedents.
How does the speaker view the possibility of China becoming a liberal democracy?
-The speaker views the hope of China becoming a liberal democracy as a pipe dream, given its vast land and historically autocratic nature.
What was significant about the 1911 Revolution in China?
-The 1911 Revolution in China marked a significant transformation from imperial rule to a republic, leading to major social changes, including the liberation of women.
How does the speaker perceive the future economic development of China?
-The speaker believes China's economic development will continue due to the people's desire for a better life, potentially reaching half of US per capita income and having an economy equal to the US and EU combined.
What role does Europe play in the US-China dynamics?
-Europe can maintain balance and prevent war between the US and China by not supporting either side in a conflict, requiring a strategic and historical view.
How does China view the US's involvement with Taiwan?
-China sees the US's involvement with Taiwan as a potential tactic to keep China divided, which could lead to war if perceived as such, but peace is possible with gradual convergence.
What historical context does China rely on regarding Taiwan?
-China relies on the Cairo Declaration and subsequent reaffirmations, which agreed that Taiwan would be restored to China after World War II.
Outlines
🌏 US-China Relations: A Complex Rivalry
The first paragraph delves into the evolving US-China relationship, highlighting the US's perception of China as a primary rival and potential enemy. It discusses the US's bipartisan support for challenging China's rise, viewing it as a threat to American global dominance rather than territorially. The speaker warns of the dangers of unchecked democratic fervor, particularly in the context of incidents like those in the South China Sea, which could escalate tensions. The paragraph also touches on the importance of understanding China's historical and philosophical context to avoid misguided actions that could lead to tragedy. It emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach to China, recognizing its long-standing civilization and the homogeneity of its large population, which is deeply rooted in its culture, contrary to Western perceptions of China as expansionist.
📚 Historical Patience and China's Non-Expansionist Nature
In the second paragraph, the discussion centers on China's historical patience and its non-expansionist tendencies. It contrasts Western impatience and aggression with China's long-term perspective, influenced by its deep historical roots. The speaker refutes the notion of China as an authoritarian, expansionist state, arguing that China's size and history make it more conservative and less inclined to impose its values on others. The paragraph also addresses the Chinese Communist Party's role and the unlikelihood of China adopting a Western European model of governance. It highlights China's historical experience as an empire and its short-lived period as a republic, emphasizing the significant social changes, including the liberation of women, that occurred during the 1911 Revolution.
🌐 Europe's Role in the Sino-American Dynamic
The third paragraph explores Europe's potential role in the geopolitical struggle between China and the US. It positions Europe as a unique entity with its own destiny, distinct from the US, and not inherently at odds with China due to geographical distance. The speaker suggests that Europe's stance could be pivotal in preventing conflict, as neither the US nor China would likely engage in war without European support. The paragraph also touches on the differences in how China and Russia perceive the West, with China distinguishing between Europe and the US, while Russia views them as a united front. The discussion on Taiwan is framed as a matter of historical justice for China, with the speaker cautioning Western supporters of Taiwan to understand the historical context to avoid inadvertently escalating tensions.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡US-China relations
💡Philosophical underpinnings
💡Cultural homogeneity
💡Expansionism
💡Authoritarian centralized state
💡Chinese patience
💡1911 Revolution
💡Economic opening of China
💡European role
💡Taiwan
Highlights
The US views China as its main rival and potential enemy, leading to a bipartisan consensus on containing China's rise.
The US perceives China as a threat to its global dominance rather than territorially.
There is a risk of the US democratic process escalating tensions with China, especially if incidents occur like in the South China Sea.
Understanding China's history and philosophical underpinnings is crucial for the US to formulate effective policies.
China's long civilization and large homogeneous population are not accidental but deeply rooted in its culture.
Unlike Western countries, China has a unified literature and set of myths subscribed to by all Chinese people.
China is not expansionist by nature due to the challenges of incorporating non-Chinese people into its civilization.
The Chinese view of the US and Europe is that they are happy for America to play its role without challenging it.
China's approach is to focus on solving its own family problems rather than trying to impose its values on others.
Chinese patience comes from their deep sense of history and the precedents set by past actions.
China has always been autocratic due to the vastness of its land, making Western-style democracy unrealistic.
The 1911 Revolution was the greatest revolution in human history, especially in terms of liberating women.
Chinese women are the most liberated among Asian women due to the 1911 Revolution.
China's economic opening is expected to continue as the Chinese people aspire to improve their living standards.
Europe can play a significant role in maintaining the balance between China and the US, preventing war.
Europe's diversity and historical struggles have contributed more to human civilization than any other continent.
China and Russia have different approaches to viewing the West, with China distinguishing between Europe and the US.
Taiwan is a matter of historical justice for China, with international agreements recognizing it as part of China.
The US and Europe's support for Taiwan could be seen as an attempt to keep China divided, potentially leading to war.
Many European leaders take positions on Taiwan without fully understanding the historical context, risking conflict.
Transcripts
for
of course the US making China it's
number one competitor rival and even
enemy and their sort of you know support
for this idea across the aisle How do
you see the US approach to China what
what what are the problems there what
are the good sides and the bad sides I
think he had to he had to come sooner or
later but in the last five years like
drops of lipus like drops of acid
changing the color of the lpness there's
suddenly a view in the US that China is
a threat not a threat to the US in the
territorial sense but a threat to us
dominance in the world and there's a
mood in the US now that they must
somehow curb Cil control contain China
and if necessary for some go to war with
China and this very dangerous because
the passions of a democratic electorate
can sometimes get out of control if for
instance there's an incident in the
South China Sea and a few dozen US
Sailors would to be killed then Congress
Us Media will react in a way which even
the White House cannot cannot somehow
contain or
moderate I would assume and having
listened to your speech that the US is
probably on a wrong track here from your
perspective and and that they are sort
of getting China wrong what if you were
the president of the US what would you
do
well the the the the most important
thing is to understand the nature of the
challenge and which means understanding
China in his history in his
philosophical underpinnings otherwise if
you if your assumptions are wrong then
your actions may lead not to success but
to tragedy so it's important when we
look at China not just to view
it on the basis of a few snapshots but
one must watch the entire video from his
early Beginnings then his nature reveals
itself and China is a wrong history and
China is a challenge it is
because he has a long
civilization the Chinese
people are the biggest
nationality in history
why has this come to be it wasn't an
accident China with a population 1.4
billion is
92%
hand how can such a large country be so
homogeneous it cannot be by accident it
cannot be because of the policies of one
or two dynasties it is deep in the
culture that
they they're most comfortable among them
El we take Europe Europe has about maybe
half the population of China and we're
in Italy we we in Florence you're are
from Finland each has his history his
Traditions his Heroes is myth but the
whole of China has only one
literature has only one set of myth
which all Chinese people sub subscribe
to and because of the nature of this
civilization has a very
different uh character the Chinese
people are not expansionists not because
they can be expansionist but they find
it Troublesome to incorporate non
Chinese people into the real so what
what what do you say when you hear you
know a lot of westerners people from the
global south or you know the US and
Europe saying that ah you know China is
an authoritarian centralized State you
you know its expansionist or imperialist
just like Russia and we need to decouple
on the rest of what what's your you know
as a Singaporean what's your
reaction well I'm ethnic Chinese
Singapore is stre quarters Chinese so I
think we do have some understanding of
the nature of China I don't think they
they see profit in conquering foreign
lands in incorporating foreign
nationalities into the body politic in
the end it will lead to grief they're
quite happy for the Americans to play
their role not because they don't want
to challenge America but they think that
in the end it will lead to no good
they're too old theyve seen too much to
see benefit in trying to impose their
values on others their approach is this
I have no problems with my family he's a
big family a lot of
problems and your family well good luck
to you know to think that I can help you
solve your family problems is to them
absurd yeah just you cannot solve my
family
problems how about Chinese patience
where where does that come from because
I've you know I always read stories
about oh you know for the Chinese a
centur is only a page in a book kind of
a thing and there seems to be that you
compare that to a lot of other big
Powers around the world a lot of other
powers they can be aggressive they can
be quite quick in their moves you know
the American Century was the last
century but before that it wasn't really
how about China and patience where does
it come from from from a sense of their
own history because this the the dramas
are reenacted on the same Plains along
the same rivers surrounded by the same
mountains and for everything they do
they can't avoid
precedents there's no country on Earth
which is as wed to its own history as
China it's not possible to have any
conversation in China without recurring
references to what has been done in
similar situations in the past that
makes a very conservative civilization
it's always been
autocratic such a vast land cannot be
organized in any other way so the hope
that you can somehow make China in the
image of Western Europe it's a pipe
dream I think you're right and
interesting enough I mean you know I
belong very much to the sort of fukuyama
school end of history and you know I
believed also that you know after the
end of the Cold War all all of us would
revert to Liberal democracy market
economy and globalization and with that
also China there was this feeling but of
course China is a different kettle of
fish it's very much centralized around
the Chinese Communist party and it's
what 88 plus million members and and in
that sense you don't see much change
happening on that front China has a long
history but most of that history is of
China as
uh
an Empire where
legitimacy of the emperor is based on
the male line the ruling house that's
what conferred legitimacy on an emperor
and when he loses the med of heaven then
there's a period of turmoil and the new
Dynasty a new family comes into position
China has a very short experience as a
republic it's only
1911 and that Revolution from Imperial
China the Republican China created
probably in my view the greatest
revolution in human history and the
liberation of women in that
Revolution is almost unbelievable
because everybody had Herms not just the
emperor men had Herms wealthy men and it
was
accepted and women who were in high
society had their feet bound for the
sexual pleasure of men so for all that
to change within the short period was
remarkable and among Asian women if you
compare Chinese women to Japanese to
Korean to Indian to Malay women Chinese
women are the most liberated that was
because of the 1911 Revolution do you
then believe I mean if this getting more
about China than expected but it's
always good with a free flow
conversation so so you take you know
1979 and the opening of of China do you
see this continuing because of course
China has gone from rugs to riches I
mean you talk a lot about it yourself as
well we we've seen it become one of the
biggest economies in the world I think
in the speech you even talked about it
being about you know half of the world's
economy by end 2050 etc etc will opening
of China continue
economically yes because the the Chinese
people want to do better they are right
now per capita maybe 20% us per capita
surely they can reach half of us per
capita by which time the Chinese economy
will be equal to that the US and the EU
combined because of the logic of numbers
and that desire for a better life uh
it's Unstoppable regardless of how it's
governed but when China is well governed
then the infrastructure is in place the
progress will be very very rapid let's
go to Europe and China then you began by
saying that you have a feeling that
Europe could play a B big role so let's
put you now in the first you were in the
shoes of the US president now I put you
in the shoes of of the commission
president uh or european leader what
should Europe do here Europe is a great
experiment in bringing treble Nations
together in the in the
Confederation you need the Western
Alliance with the Americans for a
collective defense but Europe has its
own destiny from Amer America which is
far away which is surrounded by two
oceans I mean Europe is complicated at
one end of Eurasia is always had this
internal
tensions it is not an enemy of China
it's too far away and China can never be
an enemy of Europe so what role does
Europe play in the coming decades in
this Titanic struggle between China and
the us if
Europe maintains the balance there'll be
no war the Americans cannot go into war
with China with Europe not supporting it
good point china cannot go into war with
America with Europe not supporting it
but this
requires a strategic view of Europe not
only
geopolitically but also
historically China may may have been a
very great civilization but Europe in
all its diversity is probably
contributed more to human civilization
than any other Contin
because of his diversity is ceaseless in
term of struggles you know one of the
interesting things is of course if you
look at the way in which China discusses
or pitches the West it separates between
Europe and the US whereas Russia sees
very much the West as you know Europe
and the us together so there's a quite a
sort of fundamental difference in the
approach now You' mentioned the war Word
War a few times times and of course A
lot of it you know again from a
simplistic uh Western View comes to the
question of Taiwan so tell me what's
your take on Taiwan because I think it
might be a little bit different from
what we hear in the west often Taiwan is
only a piece on the geopolitical chest
board many people support uh Taiwan
support Taiwan not because they know
very much about Taiwan or because they
really love Taiwanese people but because
they see it as a way of somehow
controlling uh China keeping China down
it's a way of poking
China but they don't realize that for
China Taiwan is a matter of historical
Justice before the second world war
ended in the Cairo conference which was
attended by Stalin Churchill Roosevelt
and
CH it was already agreed that Taiwan
will be restored to China after the war
and impost time the KIRO Declaration was
reaffirmed so for
China all the Victorious Powers agree
that Taiwan is part of China and is a
matter of time of course they prefer to
be peaceful but they cannot give up the
possibility of the use of force so China
is wondering when the US plays Taiwan is
it your objective to keep us divided
forever if that your objective
then there will be War but if your
objective is gradual
conversions then naturally there'll be
peace now what position does Europe take
but frankly I think many European
leaders take
positions without without knowing the
history and
therefore uh embling into a mind field
without realizing it is a mind
field
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