The End of Work as We Know It
Summary
TLDRThe narrative unfolds through history, highlighting the evolution of work from the hunter-gatherer era to the present's 'infinite productivity era.' As productivity surged, the allocation of work hours shrank significantly, influenced by technological advancements and policy changes. Child labor was curbed, retirement introduced, and working weeks shortened. Technological strides, from automation to digital technologies, have shifted income distribution and rendered numerous jobs obsolete, pushing towards an economy where automation and AI predominate. This shift forecasts a future where employment focuses on human interaction, lifelong learning, and unconditional basic income, ushering us into an era where creativity and care define work.
Takeaways
- 👨💼 The nature of jobs and work has drastically changed over the centuries, from hunter-gatherers to the current era of infinite productivity.
- ⏳ Work time has been continuously compressed, with limitations on child labor, the introduction of retirement, and reduced working weeks.
- 💻 Advances in technology and productivity have led to the automation and disappearance of many traditional jobs.
- 🏢 Competition and the pursuit of productivity have accelerated automation, leading to the loss of jobs across various industries.
- 🏭 As more jobs become automated, economies focused on low labor costs have faced mass unemployment.
- 🌐 Reshoring policies have led to the return of automated production to countries of origin, reducing transportation costs and duties.
- 🤖 Professions like couriers, radiologists, and notaries have become obsolete due to technological advancements.
- 🏛️ Governments have aimed to balance productivity gains by limiting working time through compulsory schooling, retirement, and holidays.
- 💰 As the concentration of capital has increased, fiscal policies and income redistribution have been redefined to address social imbalances.
- 🧑🎓 Lifelong compulsory training and learning have become essential, with the concept of the traditional office disappearing.
Q & A
What historical shift marked the beginning of the 'infinite productivity era'?
-The 'infinite productivity era' began as a new phase following the information era, characterized by significant advancements in technology and automation that drastically increased productivity and altered traditional work structures.
How did work time compression evolve historically up to the 19th century?
-Historically, work time compression evolved through limiting child labor, introducing compulsory education, setting maximum working ages, and establishing retirement, as seen with Otto von Bismarck's retirement invention for Germans over 65 in 1881 and Henry Ford's adoption of the five-day work week in 1926.
What principle did states apply during the 19th century regarding productivity and working time?
-During the 19th century, states unconsciously applied the principle that whenever productivity increased tenfold, working time was limited by a quarter, through mechanisms like compulsory schooling, retirement, holidays, and other government tools.
How did the concept of productivity change in the 1960s, according to Milton Friedman's observation?
-In the 1960s, the concept of productivity began to be better understood, as exemplified by Milton Friedman's observation at an Asian shipyard where workers used shovels instead of machines, highlighting the defense of labor over efficiency.
What impact did the increase in productivity have on the distribution of income between capital and workers by the end of the 20th century?
-By the end of the 20th century, the increased productivity began benefiting capital exclusively, with the worker's salary remaining almost unchanged, disrupting the traditional income redistribution law between capital and workers.
How did automation impact the job market by 2010, according to the Washington Post?
-By January 2nd, 2010, the Washington Post reported that no jobs had been created in the US in the last decade, marking a significant impact of automation on the job market, as it was the first time this had happened.
What were some of the professions that disappeared by the end of the century due to automation?
-By the end of the century, automation led to the disappearance of professions such as human calculators, switchboard operators, gas lamp lighters, knocker-uppers, and milkmen.
How did the concept of work change by 2054 in the 'infinite productivity era'?
-By 2054, in the 'infinite productivity era', the concept of work shifted significantly, with only 1% of life dedicated to traditional work, and the remaining jobs being those where human interaction was preferred, such as athletes, craftsmen, and professional caregivers, indicating a move towards service and care as primary occupations.
What led to the concept of unconditional basic income, and how was it financed?
-The concept of unconditional basic income arose from the need to redistribute income in the face of increased automation and reduced labor demand. It was financed by taxing fully automated companies based on their use of citizens' infrastructures and personal identities, with consumption taxes used to redistribute income to the weaker classes.
What new era did humanity enter according to the transcript, and what characterizes it?
-According to the transcript, humanity entered the new era of imagination, characterized by the significant role of artificial intelligence and automation in daily life, a shift towards lifelong learning, and the importance of creativity and the human touch in remaining occupations.
Outlines
🔄 The Evolution of Work and Productivity
This paragraph traces the evolution of work from the dawn of humanity to the present, highlighting significant shifts in labor practices and productivity. Initially, work was synonymous with survival, with no concept of retirement until Otto von Bismarck introduced it in 1881. The 20th century saw further reductions in working hours and the introduction of social welfare measures like compulsory education and paid maternity leave. Economists began to worry about the impact of rising productivity on employment, leading to proposals for measures like the guaranteed minimum income. The advent of digital technology in the 1970s disrupted the traditional income distribution model, leading to a scenario where increases in productivity benefitted capital more than labor. This trend was exacerbated by automation and the adoption of technologies like Baxter robots and Amazon's Kiva systems, which further displaced human labor. By the early 21st century, concerns about mass unemployment due to automation were becoming reality, with significant social and economic implications.
🚀 Transition to an Automated Economy
This paragraph outlines the shift towards complete automation in various industries, marking the decline of traditional jobs and the rise of specialized professions. The automation wave has led to the obsolescence of roles like couriers, radiologists, and notaries, while creating a demand for new kinds of expertise. High levels of automation, exemplified by companies like Amazon achieving unprecedented revenue per employee, forced other companies to automate aggressively to remain competitive. This resulted in a significant reduction of the workforce in sectors like retail and banking, with jobs being replaced by machines or new technologies like blockchain. The societal impact of these changes includes a redefinition of fiscal policies to address the redistribution of income and the introduction of measures like unconditional basic income. The narrative closes by envisioning a future where work involves more personal interaction and lifelong learning, with technology playing a central role in both enabling and challenging traditional employment paradigms.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Automation
💡Productivity
💡Guaranteed Minimum Income
💡Reshoring
💡Artificial Intelligence
💡Compulsory Education
💡Unconditional Basic Income
💡Automation Crisis
💡Lifelong Learning
💡Self-Sovereignty
Highlights
Introduction of the 'infinite productivity era' marks a new phase in human history, contrasting with previous eras like hunter-gatherers, agriculture, and industrial.
The historical reduction of work hours and the introduction of retirement by Otto von Bismarck as early societal changes reflecting adjustments to productivity and lifespan.
Henry Ford and Olivetti's contributions to reducing the workweek, promoting worker welfare, and setting a precedent for future work-time adjustments.
The principle applied during the 19th century that with every tenfold increase in productivity, working time is limited by a quarter through various means.
Milton Friedman's critique of labor-intensive methods in favor of productivity, highlighting the tension between employment and efficiency.
The transition to digital technologies in 1975 challenging the traditional income redistribution between capital and workers, leading to a growing disparity.
The automation of various professions by the end of the 20th century and the impact of digital technologies on job creation and productivity.
The significant role of autonomous vehicles and robots in industries, transforming professions like truck driving and warehouse operations.
The concept of reshoring driven by automation, allowing countries to bring production back home, reducing costs and focusing on customer access rather than cheap labor.
The displacement of traditional jobs by automation and AI, leading to the creation of new, specialized professions.
The analysis of the economy as a lake by Martin Ford, illustrating the impact of automation on the market and consumer purchasing power.
The introduction of unconditional basic income and other fiscal policies to address the redistribution of wealth in the face of automation and capital concentration.
The evolution of the workplace and work practices, including the disappearance of the traditional office and the rise of lifelong learning initiatives.
The taxation of fully automated companies and the implementation of consumption taxes to redistribute income within communities.
The emergence of the 'era of imagination,' where human creativity and interaction with AI become the most valuable skills.
Transcripts
2054. the jobs we knew have disappeared.
We dedicate 1% of our life to work.
Today it has different names that at the dawnof the century we did not even imagine.
Man has gone through many eras.
That of hunter-gatherers lasted a few million years
that of Agriculture a few thousand
the industrial era 200 years
that of information a few dozen
now a new one has begun: the infinite productivity era.
In the last 300 years work has been continuously compressed
Up to 1800 there was the concept that 'if you are alive you work'
At the end of the 19th century child labor was limited in England and Wales,
for example, with compulsory education up to ten years.
On the other hand a maximum working age limit is set.
In 1881 Otto von Bismarck invents retirement for German citizens over 65 years
it was cheap the average life in Germany was 39 years.
Decades after the working week is compressed.
In1926 Henry Ford adopted five days a week for 400,000 workers
In 1948 Olivetti in Italy also reduced it by removing the
Saturday and introducing maternity paid for nine months.
Work time keep squeezing.
In 1936 the compulsory school in France comes to 14 years. In 1959 to 16.
In 2018 some countries like Mexico, Argentina, part of the United States and others reach 18 years.
During the 19th century a principle is unconsciously applied by the states.
Whenever productivity increases tenfold
working time is limited by a quarter
through compulsory schooling, retirement,
holidays and other tools identified by governments.
Some states defend themselves from change slowing it down.
The Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman
visits an Asian shipyard in the 1960s
were instead of digging machines the
workers use shovels the motivation for this choice is the defense of work
Friedman sarcastic suggests using spoons.
In 1960 the concept of productivity and
its impact on economic processes begin to be better on stood.
The delivery person passing by the delivery on foot, then on horseback,
then by bike, then by scooter and then with a truck increases productivity by
delivering several packages at the same time
In 900 this increase in productivity is transferred always in the same way.
There is a fixed relationship between the share for the capital - one-third-
and the quota for workers - two-thirds.
But the increase in productivity worries economists who
theorize a possible end of mass work.
What would happen to the delivery man if he became useless with autonomous delivery?
In 1964 the triple revolution committee, also composed of two Nobles,
proposes the guaranteed minimum income
made possible by the economy of abundance.
In addition to new transitional measures such as training and Public Works.
In 1975 with the beginning of digital technologies
the law of redistribution of income between
capital and workers lost value.
Increased productivity begins to go exclusively
for the benefit of capital,
the salary of the worker remains almost unchanged.
At the end of the century many works have disappeared; the human calculators,
the switchboard operators, the lightest of gas lamps, the knocker-uppers, the milkman
and others are replaced by automation.
On January the 2nd 2010 the Washington Post titles that
no jobs have been created in the US in the last decade
never happened before.
In 2012 factories adopt programmable arms like Baxter robot
retailers automate warehouses, Amazon buys Kiva systems using disks that move
shelves and products.
Orders leave the warehouse in 15 minutes and not 60
anymore saving 40% on costs.
Productivity becomes the competitive goal.
In the 15 years between 1998 and 2013 the hours of work of the Americans remain unchanged
but the value produced increases by 42%
equal to plus three thousand five hundred billion dollars.
In 2018 autonomous trucks travel on motorways in Great Britain.
The robot bartenders who work without pay nor stops replace the
bartenders who strike in Las Vegas.
Even more esteemed professions like doctors
feel the pressure between five and twenty percent of
the diagnoses are inaccurate and artificial intelligence objects such as
Watson are used to remedy.
If at the beginning of the 19th century 23% of life was spent working
in 2018 the average working time in the world is around 13%
and in the OSCE Countries even less than 9%
The futurist Martin Ford analyzes the problem of customers without money
compare the market to a lake
when the company sells products it fishes
when it pays the workers it throws fish into the lake
the more automation is increased the less fish there will be in the lake.
Between 2020 and 2030 Countries that are focused on low labor costs are the first to go into crisis for mass unemployment.
Companies in the OSCE Countries enforce a reshoring policy on mass bringing
production back to the Country of origin.
The complete automation of production
allows to reduce transport costs and duties.
The largest corporate value becomes access to customers, no longer to labor.
Some professions disappear as the courier, the radiologist, the notary.
Technology made them obsolete the new professions are for specialists, only for a few.
Half of the jobs that existed 10 years earlier have been automated.
As in the 60s farmers who moved on masse to
the cities allowing the fields to be cultivated with machines with the
difference that today there are no new factory jobs waiting for them.
Competition pushes on the accelerator of automation companies could no longer
afford to compete with smart companies,
companies without human personnel,
not so much for prices as for quality of service and product.
When Amazon exceeds 2 million revenue per employee in 2025
Walmart that has a revenue of only $300,000 per employee
must make the biggest internal revolution ever made to
survive by automating all of its services all of a sudden.
The entire retail sector that represented 10 percent of workers is downsized.
Fast food restaurants become gourmet places Momentum machines which creates machines
to 100% automate the production of fresh meat burgers puts out of the market
McDonald's that employed almost 2 million people
Kura the chain of Japanese restaurants that as early as 2018 was completely
automated brings smart sushi to the world.
Like the cashiers the people at fast foods even the workers behind the steering wheel that in the US were
almost 8,000,000 before the 20s
in 2035 they have to relocate the tractors are
driven by themselves the fruit collection is managed by Agribot.
Cars by law in all OSCE Countries must be self-driving to avoid accidents
The warehouse workers disappear the Industrial Perception robots select the
objects to be taken in the trucks, Kiva's robot discs store them in the warehouses
and package them for customers in the fifth of the humans time.
The banking workers since they were labeled as living abacuses by the head of Deutsche Bank in 2017
no longer exist only ten years later.
The banks live on blockchain and the banking workers have become
crypto consultants to help the elderly to interface with the new technology.
In the 1940s the hyper concentration of
capital in the hands of a few multinational companies creates a global
social imbalance.
It does not bring benefits to workers who were no longer
part of the production process but pushes customers to claim a part of
redistribution of this value.
For this reason all fiscal policies and
redistribution of this income are redefined.
The works left in 2050 for
those where customers prefer the human touch
athletes, craftsmen, professional nurses for the elderly and lovers.
The job today is to take care of others what at the beginning of the century we called volunteering.
The people who earn the most of those who can better interact
with artificial intelligence and with other people.
The concept of office created in 1700 with the West India Company disappears after 350 years.
People no longer have the obligation to join in company spaces to work.
Compulsory training lasts a lifetime with learning Monday
introduced in the Netherlands in 2027. On Monday you can choose which
module to study and be checked by an artificial intelligence by the following Monday.
The tax system all over the world has now acquired the principle of
unconditional basic income financed by the use of citizens infrastructures.
Physical and digital networks and personal identities are owned by
citizens who have developed self sovereignty.
Fully automated companies are taxed according to their use and rewarded for hiring people.
Consumption taxes are used to redistribute income to the weaker classes within a community or state.
Man has entered the new era of imagination
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