This BROKE The Market But It's Also What Made Me RICH (Here's How)
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis video, Mark Moss explores the 'Codex', a method to decrypt market movements, predicting future trends. He delves into the synchronized cycles of global debt, liquidity, and asset prices, highlighting the impact of the 2008 financial crash on these patterns. Moss explains how understanding these cycles can guide investment strategies for the next 12-15 months, emphasizing the importance of timing within these cycles rather than trying to time the markets. He invites viewers to a live presentation for an in-depth look at asset categories and strategies.
Takeaways
- 🔒 The financial markets are likened to an encrypted message that is difficult to decipher, but the speaker claims to have found a way to predict market movements through 'synchronization events'.
- 📈 The speaker introduces the 'Codex', a term for a method to understand market cycles, which he believes can help in predicting market behavior and making profitable investments.
- ⏰ The concept of timing the market is debunked in favor of timing market cycles, emphasizing the impossibility of knowing the exact top or bottom of market trends.
- 💼 The speaker's motivation stems from personal experience, having lost everything in 2008 due to not paying attention to market and macroeconomic trends.
- 📊 A significant change in the market dynamics occurred in 2008, which the speaker has been analyzing to understand the new patterns and cycles.
- 🌐 The global debt has been growing steadily and is a key factor in the cycles of market movements, with the debt-based monetary system requiring constant growth.
- 📉 The speaker discusses various economic indicators such as GDP, working-age population, and birth rates, all of which are trending downward and affecting economic growth.
- 💡 The synchronization event of 2008 led to a global refinancing of debt on a four-year cycle, aligning various economic cycles and creating a pattern that can be analyzed.
- 🤔 The speaker invites viewers to a live presentation for a deeper dive into the specifics of asset allocation during different phases of the cycles.
- 🚀 Bitcoin is highlighted as an asset highly sensitive to liquidity changes, with its price movements closely tied to the ebb and flow of global liquidity.
- 📉 The speaker predicts that the current upward liquidity cycle will continue, suggesting potential profits for those who understand and act on these cycles.
Q & A
What is the main theme of the video script?
-The main theme of the video script is the explanation of financial market cycles and a phenomenon that the speaker refers to as 'the Codex', which is a method to predict market movements based on debt cycles and synchronized global financial events.
What does the speaker claim about the financial markets before the synchronization event?
-The speaker claims that before the synchronization event, financial markets were like an encrypted message that was difficult to decipher and posed a massive danger due to the inability to predict their movements accurately.
What significant change happened in 2008 according to the speaker?
-According to the speaker, the significant change that happened in 2008 was the global financial crash, which led to a synchronization of debt cycles worldwide as many entities refinanced their debt at near-zero interest rates.
What is the 'Codex' as mentioned in the script?
-The 'Codex' is described as a monetary cipher or a method to decrypt the movements of the financial markets, allowing for better understanding and prediction of market trends.
Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of understanding cycles rather than timing the markets?
-The speaker emphasizes understanding cycles because no one can predict the exact top or bottom of the market. By understanding the cycles, investors can know what phase of the cycle they are in and make informed decisions about which assets to invest in.
What role does the debt-based monetary system play in the cycles discussed by the speaker?
-The debt-based monetary system is fundamental to the cycles because it necessitates the continuous growth of debt. This system influences economic growth, asset prices, and the need for constant refinancing of debt, which in turn affects market cycles.
How does the synchronization of debt cycles affect asset prices?
-The synchronization of debt cycles affects asset prices by creating a pattern where asset prices are pushed up as more debt is issued to refinance existing debt, following a roughly 3:1 ratio of good years to bad years in the market.
What does the speaker suggest about the future of the US public debt as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)?
-The speaker suggests that the US public debt is projected by the CBO to increase significantly, reaching about 116% of GDP by 2034, which implies that the liquidity cycles will continue to grow larger.
What is the significance of the four-year cycle in the context of the script?
-The four-year cycle is significant because it coincides with the debt refinancing cycle, the business cycle, the presidential election cycle, and the Bitcoin halving cycle, creating a synchronized pattern in the financial markets.
How does the speaker use the example of metronomes to explain the synchronization phenomenon in financial markets?
-The speaker uses the example of metronomes to illustrate how individual entities with different cycles can eventually synchronize, similar to how various debt cycles synchronized after the 2008 financial crash, creating a unified pattern in market movements.
What is the importance of asset sensitivity ratios in the context of the script?
-Asset sensitivity ratios are important because they indicate how different assets respond to changes in global liquidity. For instance, Bitcoin has a higher sensitivity ratio, meaning it reacts more dramatically to liquidity changes compared to the S&P 500 or gold.
What advice does the speaker give for investing during these cycles?
-The speaker advises understanding the cycle you are in and investing in the most sensitive assets that are likely to perform well during that phase of the cycle. They also emphasize the importance of not getting caught up in short-term fluctuations and instead focusing on the overall trend.
Outlines
🔐 Unlocking Market Cycles: The Monetary Codex
The speaker introduces the concept of market cycles and the 'Monetary Codex,' a tool for decrypting market movements. He shares his personal experience from 2008 and emphasizes the importance of understanding these cycles to avoid financial pitfalls. The video promises to explain the origins of these cycles, their increasing magnitude, and how to use them for financial gain. The speaker also mentions a significant change in the market dynamics post-2008 and invites viewers to a live presentation for an in-depth understanding.
🌐 The Global Debt Phenomenon and Market Synchronization
This paragraph delves into the global debt phenomenon and how it has led to a synchronized market cycle. The speaker explains the debt-based monetary system, the perpetual growth of debt, and its implications on asset prices. He discusses the correlation between debt, economic growth, and government policies, particularly the impact of the 2008 financial crash. The paragraph also highlights the concept of metronomes synchronizing their beats as an analogy for the synchronization of market cycles.
📊 Market Cycles and the Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis
The speaker explores how the 2008 financial crisis led to a global synchronization of debt cycles, affecting various economic aspects such as business cycles, liquidity cycles, and asset prices. He discusses the refinancing of debt and its role in driving asset prices and the economy. The paragraph also touches on the sensitivity of different assets to changes in global liquidity, using Bitcoin as an example of an asset highly responsive to liquidity changes.
📈 Riding the Liquidity Cycle for Investment Opportunities
The focus shifts to understanding and capitalizing on the liquidity cycle for investment. The speaker explains the pattern of good and bad years within the cycle and the importance of staying in the trend. He also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in market tightening and its effect on liquidity. The paragraph emphasizes the need to ride the cycle rather than trying to time the market, and the speaker shares his insights from previous videos about market entry points.
💼 Debt Growth Projections and Asset Sensitivity
This paragraph discusses the projections of US public debt and its implications for the economy and investment strategies. The speaker references data from the Congressional Budget Office to illustrate the expected increase in debt and its impact on asset prices. He also explains the concept of asset sensitivity to global liquidity, highlighting how different assets react to changes in monetary policy and debt levels.
🚀 Bitcoin's Sensitivity and the Four-Year Cycles
The speaker concludes with an analysis of Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity and its correlation with the four-year cycles of debt refinancing, business cycles, and presidential election cycles. He suggests that understanding these cycles can help predict market movements and make informed investment decisions. The paragraph also invites viewers to join a live presentation for a deeper dive into asset allocation strategies based on these cycles.
🗣️ Engaging with the Audience for Further Financial Insights
In the final paragraph, the speaker invites audience engagement by asking for comments and feedback to create more informative content. He encourages viewers to subscribe to stay updated on the financial insights and strategies he shares, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles for financial success.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Encrypted Message
💡Synchronization Event
💡Market Cycles
💡Debt-Based Monetary System
💡Refinancing
💡Asset Prices
💡Liquidity Cycles
💡Sensitivity Ratio
💡Global Equity
💡Inflation
💡Quantitative Tightening
Highlights
The financial markets are likened to an encrypted message, with a synchronization event allowing for market predictions.
Introduction of the 'Codex', a monetary cipher to decipher market movements.
The significance of understanding cycles in the market to avoid being caught off guard, as happened in 2008.
The shift in 2008 to a debt-based monetary system and its perpetual growth requirement.
Debt cycles and their impact on asset prices, with the debt needing to continually expand.
The correlation between declining birth rates, labor force participation, and economic growth.
The relationship between government debt, GDP, and the labor force participation rate.
The synchronization of global debt cycles every four years, influenced by the 2008 financial crash.
The impact of liquidity cycles on financial markets, with patterns of three good years followed by one bad year.
The prediction of asset price movements based on sensitivity to liquidity changes, exemplified by Bitcoin.
Different asset sensitivities to global liquidity, with Bitcoin showing the highest reaction.
The projection of US public debt increases and their implications for future market liquidity cycles.
The concept of timing cycles rather than markets for investment strategies.
The importance of understanding the phases of debt cycles for asset allocation.
The live presentation invitation for further insights into the 'Codex' and its practical applications.
The summary of the debt-based system's effects on market cycles and asset sensitivities for future investment opportunities.
Transcripts
what if there was an encrypted message
that you just couldn't figure out and it
posed massive danger to you well that's
sort of what the financial markets are
but there was a phenomenon that happened
a synchronization event that broke this
open and allows us to Peak inside the
markets and predict with an uncanny
ability to know exactly what's going to
happen next and if you use this tool
correctly you could make more money than
you imagined over the next 12 to 15
months so in this video I'm going to
break down what these Cycles are how
they got started and how each wave gets
bigger and bigger we're going to talk
about this phenomenon this
synchronization event that put them all
in the same order and then we're going
to look at how they break down over what
time frames and exactly how we can use
this information to make money on the
way up or down depending on what part of
the synchronization cycle that we on
this is an amazing phenomenon it's the
first time I've talked about it here you
can't wait to see this so let's go ahead
and just jump right
in all right welcome to the channel if
you're new my name is Mark moss and I
make these videos to help break down
these complex subjects of the markets
and how they move in the movements so
you don't get caught in the same
situation I did back in 2008 when I was
focused on my business and I was focused
on my real estate developments and I
wasn't focusing on the markets I wasn't
focused on the macro economic
environment unfortunately for me it
caught me off sides and cost me
everything so I've spent the last last
12 to 14 years understanding these
cycles and how they move so I don't get
caught off sides again and I don't want
you to either now I've talked a lot
about how something changed in 2008 and
how most people when they talk about the
market you know 1970 the 2 1970 1940s
Etc that it's all wrong because
something changed in 2008 so I've been
talking about this for a while but it
wasn't until recently that we cracked
the code on this this is the first time
that we've talked about this publicly
I'm talking about what I'm calling the
Codex the monetary codex the Codex is
basically a cipher a way to decipher an
encrypted message and that's exactly
what this is a way to decipher to
unencrypt the movements of the market so
we can have a lot more success into it
all right so let's go and jump in I want
to break this down and we're going to
use this to do something that's
impossible and I'm talking about timing
and more importantly we're going to time
the cycle so we're not timing the
markets I'm not going to tell you the
exact time to buy something or exact
time to sell something as a matter of
fact nobody can anyone who tells you
they can they're lying they can't do
that we don't know the top or the bottom
until we're looking backwards however
what we can do is we can understand the
Cycles we can time the cycles and we can
know what phase we're in and what assets
we should be invested into and should we
be long short Etc so that's what we want
to break down that's all you have to get
right but first before we jump into
exactly how to do that let's talk about
how these got built up now before I talk
about how these Cycles got built and
then we'll talk about like I said how to
map these out understand the time frames
of these I do want to let you know that
there's a lot more to this uh how this
actually works the individual assets you
want to buy at the four phases of the
cycle and specifically which assets to
be in right now for the next 12 months
it's more that I can cover in this short
video but I'd love to have you join me
next week I'm having a live presentation
I have about 30 35 charts to show you
you can understand this and then I'm
going to take all your questions live so
you know how to implement this
information right away you don't want to
miss this if you want to make a lot of
money over the next 12 to 15 months you
need to understand this last part of the
cycle before we go into Quad 4 there's a
link down below it's free QR code on the
screen just come hang out with me it's
fun we hang out I'll answer all your
questions live okay now how did this
cycle get picked up the first thing you
have to understand is that we are in a
debt-based monetary system used to be a
gold-based system an equity based system
1971 officially started earlier 1913
probably but officially we are in a
debt-based monetary system so that means
that money is created through debt
issuance and the thing with that is that
the debt has to always continue to grow
and because the debt always has to
continue to grow because the debt is now
collateral for more debt so if the asset
prices go down that means the collateral
Goes Down And if you've ever done
options trading or leverage shorts
whatever you understand that when the
collateral goes down down you either
have to post more collateral or you lose
the position and so that's basically
what the whole world is in and so we
can't allow the collateral the assets to
go down because it's um collateral for
more and so the debt always has to
expand and we can see this is just since
2014 and this is the amount of debt
around the world the global debt well
over $300 trillion of debt which is just
amazing now we can see during the
pandemic we increased that but it's just
been a steady grind higher now I've
covered in a previous video I don't want
to go deep into but part of the reason
why this debt can ever be repaid back
besides the fact that we're in a
debt-based monetary system is that for
about $320 trillion of debt there's only
about 80 trillion dollars of dollars to
pay off the debt which is a big problem
but this is what leads to these Cycles
these debt Cycles if you will something
I talk quite about now we understand
also that the debt has to Contin grow
because it's a function of a debt based
monetary system but it's more than that
uh here we have a chart of the real GDP
the gross domestic product of the of the
United States and what we can see is
that while it goes up and down we can
see that it's trending down so the GDP
the economic growth of the United States
and the world for that matter well let's
just focus on the United States is
trending down right now and what we can
see is that at the same time we can see
that the US working age population ation
so working age able-bodied people age 15
to 64 we can see on a 5year
year-over-year split while it does go up
and down we can see that the trend is
also going down so as the working
population is going down less people to
work Less jobs less economic growth we
can see that mapped out in the GDP all
right so as that's happening then what
we can see at the same
time what's also feeding this is we're
seeing a Plunge in the US birth rates
and again nothing ever goes up or down
in a straight line so the birth rates
don't either what we can see is that the
trend is down This Is Us birth rates per
1,000 people now what we also see of
course if we have less people and we
have less working age people then the US
Labor Force participation rate is also
going down and we can see that the labor
force participation rate and the birth
rates are basically in sync right here
and they're all going down and again we
have less births we have less people we
have less people we have less people
working we have less people working we
have less economic productivity and then
less economic productivity then GDP is
also going down now this is the labor
force participation rate we already
looked at and in green the US government
debt as a percentage of GDP and this is
where it starts to get interesting you
can see that these are mapped out almost
perfectly now the government debt as a
percentage of GDP has been inverted
right because obviously the debt has
been going going up so what we did is we
inverted those so you could see how
correlated the labor force participation
rate and the government debt to GDP is
so the GDP is going down with the birth
rates and labor for labor force
participation rate and so the government
debt has to go up in order to fill in
the Gap okay now we can see the FED net
liquidity so again like the FED balance
sheet we can see it going up and the US
government debt as a percentage of GDP
is also going up of course as the
balance sheets grows the government debt
goes up and as a percentage of GDP it
goes up because the GDP is going down
does that make sense so we have to
understand debt first because debt is
what's causing this all to happen and
then we'll learn how to map that out now
I talk about this quite often through
these Cycles you might have seen any one
of my videos where I'm breaking down
these 250 year Cycles or the uh 80-year
Financial Cycles the 50-year tech Cycles
so you know I love my Cycles but what I
want to show this is basically a cycle
where we can map out the growth now this
is a total Global Equity not the United
States but total Global liquidity so
it's all the money at the Central Bank
Central Bank balance sheets that's
available credit uh lots of things like
that and what we can see is that the
global liquidity the amount of money
that's created and credit and debt Etc
that's expanding around the world has
these seasons and we sort of have three
years up and then we have one year down
and then we have three years up and one
year down and then three years up and
one year down now let's say you're an
elementary kid you're pretty good at
understanding patterns what do you think
happens from here do you think we might
have three years up and one year down
next are you starting to see that all
right we'll come back to that in a
minute but there's this very very
interesting phenomenon as a matter of
fact if you know what these things are
this is a metronome and a metronome
helps you keep perfect time when you're
playing a musical instrument piano
guitar violin whatever it is the
interesting phenomenon about this is
that a metronome is supposed to keep
perfect time but if I get a group of
metronomes and put them onto a table and
I start them all different times so
they're all different beats within a
short period of time depend on how many
there are and what surface they're on
within a short period of time they'll
all get into perfect synchronization
which is an amazing phenomenon because
again they're supposed to keep perfect
time so how do they all get from
different time different beats onto the
same but understanding that phenomenon
it's more than I need to break down
right now but this is the same
phenomenon that's happening in the
markets let me explain what I'm talking
about what we saw back to 2008 as I
explained is that something changed in
the world and again I haven't been able
to figure this out for a while until
this finally kind of made sense to me so
we're in this debt-based monetary system
the debt has to continue to grow so that
means the debt doesn't get paid it gets
refinanced it's the old you know kicking
the can down the road so to speak now
the thing is in order to refinance the
debt we have to issue more debt that's
why the debt continues to grow so all
these different debt Cycles different
governments different central banks
different corporations everyone has debt
but different terms one year two year 5
year 10 year 30 year Etc all taken out
different times so all this debt around
the world the $320 trillion that's been
growing growing growing growing growing
is all getting kicked down the road all
getting refinanced at different rates
but then something happened that's sort
of like all the metronomes on different
beats but then in 2008 what changed is
that when the great financial crash
happened the whole
world brought rates to zero one time now
if you own a house and you have a
mortgage that's locked in right now
let's say that you bought it in the last
year you have a mortgage rate of let's
say
7% if the bank decided to lower the
interest rates to zero would you
refinance your house from 7 to Zer and
of course the answer is yes you would
and that's exactly what happened so when
the whole world in 2008 brought rates
down to zero what do you think everybody
did businesses governments central banks
Etc well they all refinanced their debt
now not all of them but the majority of
them what we can see right here is this
the maturity distribution of interest
bearing public debt as a percentage and
what we can see here's about a year and
here's 1 to five years so what we can
see is about 75 5% of all public health
debt is within a 5year period a maturity
distribution meaning all this debt has
to be refinanced in about a 5year cycle
now it's not all exactly five years or
four years or three years there's an
average so the average is somewhere
around 4 years
75% of the debt has about a 4year
maturity distribution and that has to
get roll red over every four years so
just like these metronomes that had all
these different syns going on they all
got linked up together now the
interesting thing about that is it's not
just all this debt which is obviously
enough but we can see is that also
changed the business cycle of course
businesses corporations they all use
debt as well this is a chart of the ism
it's like the B shows the business cycle
and what we can see is this is working
on fouryear Cycles as well so now we
have the debt cycle the global debt
cycle rolling over every four years we
have the business cycle rolling over
every four years we can see this this is
the US liquidity cycle and is again
moving over and every four years now why
is that well the reason why the
liquidity cycle moves every four years
is because every four years the debt has
to be refinanced and we have to issue
more debt in order to roll over the
existing debt so so everything has
become synchronized and what we can see
looking at the global Equity index is
almost every one of our financial
crisises has come at the bottom of this
liquidity index now going back to this
chart we looked at this chart of the
global liquidity before and I showed you
sort of the the rainbow pattern the
three good years the one bad year and
now I've mapped it out for you with
actual time frame so you can see this so
we can see from May 2010 to June 2014
four years up and then look at this a
whole red down then we have March 2015
to March 2018 and then down October 2018
to March 22 up and then down now this
just so happens to coincide with when
the Federal Reserve and thereby all the
other central banks around the world
said they were going to start tightening
markets if you remember that inflation
was transitory it's not a problem we're
going to let the inflation run hot
finally around I think it was November
of 2021 the central Bank the federal
reserve put out a notice that we are
going to start quantitative tightening T
QT start tightening the markets when
that happened what do you think happened
to liquidity it started going down now
in October of 2022 that changed and if
you have been watching my channel for
any amount of time you know in October
of 2022 I made a video and I said there
is no market crash coming and here's why
and I've gone on to make a series of
videos throughout 20 January 23 hey it's
time to buy March 2023 time I'm I'm buy
I'm back in and I made all those videos
not because I had a crystal ball but
because I was watching this liquidity
cycle that went back up I just didn't
understand the timing of it yet which is
what we're going to talk about but you
can see how this is starting to work now
going back to this chart again I added
some arrows so you can see this a little
bit better but we have the four good
years and then the one down year the
four good years and the one down year
the four good years and down year now
for all of you guys that like to look at
your portfolio on a daily or weekly or
monthly basis as I say you're never
going to make it but a little bit of
Hope for you here um nothing ever moves
up or down in a straight line okay and
this is why when I opened up the video I
said it's not about timing the markets
it's about timing the Cycles right so we
don't know the top we don't know the
bottom to we're looking back on it what
we do understand is the cycle that we're
in and as we say in the investing world
the trend is your friend we just want to
be in the trend and so we know that as
liquidity started coming back on here if
we let it ride as we say uh in the
gambling world if we let it ride we
would do very very well right the
problem is if you were looking at your
portfolio on a micro basis like oh my
gosh I'm making money oh I'm losing oh
I'm making money oh I'm losing oh look
how much I made oh I lost oh I made
money oh I lost right and you're going
back and forth and you can't do that so
we want to understand the cycle that
we're in and we want to just ride this
thing all the way up and then we either
want to get out of the market here or we
can flip short and make money on the way
back down and then we can make it back
up again now this as I said was about
October of 22 when I started making
videos about time to go back in the
market and again if we were just to stay
long we'll probably end up somewhere
along here now it's going to be like
this and it's going to be like this it's
going to come down right it's going to
be like that um but this is the cycle
and how it's working okay now the next
question you might ask yourself then is
well if uh all this debt is getting
bigger and bigger and bigger and it's
rolling over and that's what's pushing
up asset prices then how much more will
this debt grow how much is it protected
to grow and the good thing is is that
well the government tells us that and so
we can go directly to the US
government's CBO Congressional budgets
office and they publish this dat as a
matter of fact the new 2024 report just
came out and what we can see is the US
public debt increases are projected as
you can see to absolutely Skyrocket and
blow up and of course they will because
they have to we already broke that down
a debt-based monetary system they have
to issue more debt to roll it over in
addition they have to make up for the
low birth rates that we're having and
low birth rates equal low Workforce
participation rate which means GDP goes
down which means more and more debt is
continued to be put into the system to
keep this cycle going by
2034 they expect it to be about 116%
debt to GDP which is wrong number
because we're already higher than that
so whatever they show you here just
imagine that we'll probably be up to
there by then and that means these
liquidity Cycles will to continue to get
bigger and bigger and bigger now the
next thing that you need to understand
is that in these Cycles there's
technically four different parts of this
cycle so for example as the cycle goes
up and down like this we have what you
might call a summer spring or sorry
spring summer winter fall cycle to that
and we'd want to have different types of
assets in each one of these cycles and
then sort of breaks this down for us
right here so the rebound as it's coming
back up the Calm before the top the part
the the Mania of speculation and then
the turbulence at the bottom and the
different types of assets that we'd want
to be in in each part of those Cycles
now if you want me to break this down in
much greater detail and actually tell
you this is just asset categories so
it's like equities credits Commodities
Etc if I'm going to break this down and
tell you what assets in each one then
you probably want to come hang out with
me live next week because this is a
whole another topic I got like about 20
30 charts I'm going to break all this
down for you and then I'm going to take
all your questions live so you can ask
me any questions that you have about
this and how to implement it highly
recommend you come hang out with me and
it's just good fun uh there's a link in
the description down below it's free if
you want to come hang out there's a QR
code on the screen uh scan that highly
recommend you come because the next 12
to 15 months is going to be nuts okay
now the next thing that we have to
understand is that as these debt Cycles
as these liquidity Cycles continue to
roll over and continue to get bigger
as we see here they move asset prices
differently so for example this is a
zoomed in picture again this is going
back to October of 22 and we've been on
this upward liquidity now as I said
nothing goes up in a straight line so we
certainly had our Peaks and valleys here
at the top and then it continued higher
so some people might have gotten faked
out but also like I said nothing even
goes down in a straight line either
right so we have to understand that what
we want to be is again directionally
right the trend is your friend now this
is a chart of Bitcoin the reason why I
like to use Bitcoin here is because
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to
this liquidity and what we can see this
is the same time frame uh October of 22
and we can see it's taking off at the
same time the global liquidities like
literally in the exact same Peak and
Valley when the FED announced they're
going to start quantitative tightening
Bitcoin started selling off almost
immediately the NASDAQ the tech stocks
started selling off about a week later
they're also very sensitive about a week
later the S&P 500 was a few months later
so that's sort of how this works now
like I said Bitcoin is the most
sensitive asset which is why I like to
use this here um when we talk about
sensitivity let me just give you a
couple specifics here so this is an
increase in global liquidity and we know
that different assets are have different
sensitivity ratios so for example the
S&P 500 is 90% correlated with this what
does that mean it mean it moves
basically in lock step so what does that
really mean what it really means is that
the S&P 500 is moving up at the rate of
the increase of global Equity what does
that mean well that means as the global
Equity as they print more money the
existing money is worth less the value
comes down so as the value comes down
asset prices go up right because it
takes more money to buy those assets now
so it goes like this and so what that
means is the S&P 500 is sort of like a
perfect proxy for inflation meaning it's
keeping up with the rate of inflation
debasement not the CPI the government
tells you but the official monetary
debasement so you're not really getting
ahead with the S&P 500 however Bitcoin
has a
8.95 times sensitivity ratio gold has a
1.49 sensitivity ratio so what does that
mean that means gold moves up about 1.5
times at the rate of global Equity so
for every 10% increase in global
liquidity the S&P 500 stays even for
every 10% increase in liquidity gold
goes up about 15% pretty good for every
10% rise in global Equity Bitcoin over
here goes up about 90% so not all assets
are the same we definitely want to be in
the fastest boat or the most sensitive
asset now going back to these repeating
cycles and this is where it just starts
to get pretty interesting again if we
look over a long period of time we can
see that the ism is following this is
the business cycle is following these
fouryear Cycles now it's interesting
this is Bitcoin fouryear Cycles as well
this four-year cycle as the whole world
the phenomenon the synchronization
phenomenon that happened right at 2008
the whole world refinanced on a
four-year cycle just happens to coincide
and overlap with the four-year
presidential election cycle and just so
happens to overlap with the four-year
Bitcoin having cycle and so every four
years this the new supply of Bitcoin
gets cut in half which causes Bitcoin to
also move on these fouryear Cycles one
down year three good years one down year
three good years and we can see this
right here so here's 2011 Bitcoin popped
came down and then went back to the Moon
we saw 2014 Bitcoin popped went down and
went back up to the Moon uh 2019 it
popped went down went back to the moon
and now here we are right here and we
can see it popped it came down and now
it's rebounded and it's about back to
its all-time high now again if you're an
elementary kid you know anything about
patterns what do you think if this
happened this happened this happened and
now we're here what do you think happens
next well my guess is that it probably
goes up like that to match the rest of
the pattern at least for the next 12 to
15 months until well then the entire
cycle
changes all right so to summarize I know
we covered a lot of ground here we're in
a debt-based monetary system the debt
has to always continue to grow it can't
be paid off there's not enough US
dollars plus because that debt is
collateral it has to continue to grow
can't go down so the debt must grow we
know that
refinancing We Kick the Can down the
road we have to issue more debt to pay
off the previous debt so it gets bigger
and bigger and bigger we know that in
2008 it created a phenomenon that put
the global debt uh debt refinance cycle
in synchronization create this Global
sync we know that these Global
synchronized Cycles move in like a 3:1
ratio I showed you those time frames we
know that there's different types of
assets to buy in these different Cycles
we'll get to more of that later if you
come join me live next week uh we know
that the government the CBO
Congressional budget office projects the
debt and assets to continue to grow at
an astronomical rate and again we know
that there's different asset
sensitivities so the S&P 500 is moving
up perfectly with it gold moves up at a
faster rate Bitcoin moves up even faster
rate and there's other assets that move
up at different synchronization rates
and different sensitivity rates so
anyway that's a lot of ground it's a
very interesting phenomenon something
that I've been digging into a lot about
the last couple months and I'm going to
continue to dig in more so let me know
what your comments are down below so I
can make some more videos to support you
as you learn how to use this tool to map
these liquidity flows well to make as
much money as you can all right give me
a thumbs up if you like the video if you
don't you can give me a thumbs down
that's okay but at least tell me why in
the comments down below subscribe if
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and that's what I got to your success
I'm out
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