What the North Korea-Russia Alliance Reveals
Summary
TLDRRussian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense pact, potentially impacting global politics. The deal could lead to North Korea providing military support and labor to Russia, including possibly deploying troops to Ukraine. This alliance might influence Russia's UN Security Council voting, facilitate military equipment transfers, and circumvent Western sanctions. Reports suggest North Korea has already sent munitions to Russia, and the strengthened ties could escalate the conflict in Ukraine, while also affecting Russia's relations with China.
Takeaways
- 📜 On June 19th, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed an agreement with significant global implications, indicating a comprehensive strategic partnership and a mutual defense pact.
- 🔄 This agreement is considered stronger than a typical strategic partnership due to the inclusion of a mutual defense pact, which implies a commitment to provide immediate military assistance to each other in case of foreign invasion.
- 🏛 The agreement could potentially influence Russia's voting behavior at the United Nations, where as a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has veto power over resolutions.
- 🚀 The partnership may facilitate the transfer of military equipment from China to North Korea, which could then indirectly supply Russian forces, circumventing Western sanctions.
- 💣 North Korea has reportedly been sending Russia millions of artillery shells and thousands of missiles since 2023, which could be part of a quid-pro-quo arrangement.
- 🛑 There are unconfirmed reports suggesting North Korea might send troops to assist in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, which, if true, would represent a significant escalation in the conflict.
- 🔮 The possibility of North Korean troop deployment is being taken seriously, with the Pentagon not outright dismissing the claims, though the source of the information is a South Korean news network citing an unnamed official.
- 🛠 If North Korean troops are sent, they may serve in roles such as construction, logistics, and fortification building, potentially freeing up Russian combat forces for the front lines.
- 💼 The alliance could lead to North Korea earning significant income from Russia for labor provided in reconstruction efforts, estimated at around $15 million per year for three engineering brigades.
- 🔄 Historical precedent exists for North Korea sending military abroad, such as advisors and pilots during the Vietnam War, indicating a potential willingness to participate in foreign conflicts.
- 🌐 The strengthened relationship between Russia and North Korea could impact global dynamics, including South Korea's consideration of arming Ukraine and the potential for a new Cold War scenario.
Q & A
What type of agreement did Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un sign on June 19th?
-Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense pact.
What is the significance of a mutual defense pact in the context of international relations?
-A mutual defense pact signifies a very strong commitment between two countries to provide military assistance to each other in the event of an attack, indicating a deep alliance akin to 'till death do us part'.
What are the implications of Russia and North Korea's agreement for the United Nations?
-Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, may adjust its voting behavior, potentially using its veto power to block resolutions that it disagrees with, especially those related to North Korea sanctions.
How might the agreement affect the flow of military equipment to North Korea?
-The agreement could facilitate the transfer of military equipment from China to North Korea, which could then indirectly supply it to Russian forces, potentially circumventing Western sanctions.
What benefits might North Korea receive from this agreement according to the script?
-North Korea is expected to receive increased shipments of food, fuel, and oil, as well as the unfreezing of $9 million in North Korean assets.
What is the historical precedent for North Korea sending military abroad?
-In 1967, North Korea sent pilots to advise, train, and fly missions to aid in the Vietnam War. More recently, North Korean military advisers trained Angolan armed forces.
What is the potential role of North Korean troops in Ukraine according to the script?
-North Korean troops might be sent to Ukraine as engineering units to perform tasks such as building fortifications, mine clearing, logistics support, or as laborers for rebuilding efforts in occupied regions.
How might the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine impact the conflict?
-The deployment could free up more Russian combat power for front-line fighting, as North Korean forces take over tasks like fortification building and reconstruction.
What is the historical context of the relationship between Russia and North Korea?
-The Soviet Union covertly backed North Korea during the Korean War in the 1950s, and after the war, they signed a strong defense alliance pact, which was later weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
How does the script suggest the current alliance might affect South Korea's stance on arming Ukraine?
-The script suggests that South Korea might become more open to arming Ukraine due to the strengthened alliance between Russia and North Korea, potentially providing weapons that could escalate the conflict.
What does the script imply about the broader geopolitical implications of the Russia-North Korea alliance?
-The script implies that the alliance could lead to a reshuffling of alliances, reigniting old rivalries and alliances, creating an unpredictable geopolitical landscape with high stakes.
Outlines
🤝 Putin and Kim Jong-un's Strategic Partnership
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense pact, marking a significant step in international relations. The agreement obligates both countries to provide immediate military assistance if attacked by a foreign invasion. This move could potentially lead to North Korea deploying troops to Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. The partnership is one of the strongest types of treaties, second only to a mutual defense alliance like NATO. It also suggests Russia may adjust its United Nations Security Council voting behavior, given its veto power on resolutions.
🏗️ North Korean Labor and Military Aid to Russia
The agreement between Russia and North Korea is expected to facilitate the transfer of military equipment and labor. North Korea has reportedly been sending millions of artillery shells and thousands of missiles to Russia since 2023, circumventing Western sanctions. In return, North Korea receives increased shipments of food, fuel, and unfrozen assets. There are also indications that North Korea might send troops to Ukraine as early as July, potentially to serve in various support roles, which could free up Russian combat power for frontline engagements. This development has prompted the United States to reconsider its policy on allowing defense contractors in Ukraine.
🔄 Historical Precedents and Current Implications
The alliance between Russia and North Korea harkens back to the Korean War in the 1950s, when the Soviet Union covertly supported North Korea. Fast forward to the present, and the roles have reversed, with North Korea potentially aiding Russia. This historical connection is significant as it suggests a return to older forms of support and alliance. The current situation also raises concerns about the potential for North Korean military engineers, initially sent as civilians, to escalate into a larger military presence in Ukraine. The evolving relationship between these nations is reshaping geopolitical dynamics, with implications for sanctions, military support, and international relations.
🌐 Geopolitical Shifts and Future Prospects
The strengthened relationship between Russia and North Korea is causing a ripple effect in global politics. South Korea is reevaluating its stance on arming Ukraine, while China is cautious about forming a three-way alliance, aiming to maintain open options and avoid a new Cold War scenario. The situation underscores the complexity of modern international relations, where historical ties, sanctions, and strategic interests are reshaping alliances. The transparency brought by modern technology means that nations can no longer rely on plausible deniability in conflicts, adding a new layer of complexity to diplomatic negotiations and military engagements.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
💡Mutual Defense Pact
💡Veto Power
💡Sanctions
💡UN Security Council
💡North Korean Assets
💡Military Assistance
💡DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea)
💡Rebuilding Efforts
💡Proxy War
💡No-Limits Friendship
Highlights
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense pact.
The agreement could lead to North Korea deploying troops to Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.
Putin's visit to North Korea marked the first in 24 years, symbolizing a deepening diplomatic relationship.
The comprehensive strategic partnership is a strong commitment between countries, including military assistance obligations.
Russia's position as a permanent member of the UN Security Council grants it significant power, including veto capabilities.
Russia's recent veto against a UN resolution monitoring North Korean sanctions compliance indicates a shift in policy.
The partnership may facilitate the transfer of military equipment from China to North Korea, bypassing Western sanctions.
North Korea has reportedly been sending Russia artillery shells and missiles since 2023.
North Korea is receiving increased food, fuel, and oil shipments, along with the unfreezing of $9 million in assets as part of the agreement.
Reports suggest North Korea might send or plan to send troops to Ukraine as early as July.
The South Korean cable TV news network CHOSEN reported on North Korea's potential troop deployment based on unnamed sources.
North Korean engineering units could free up Russian combat power for front-line fighting.
The U.S. government is reconsidering allowing defense contractors to help rebuild tanks in Ukraine.
North Korea could earn an estimated $15 million annually by deploying engineering brigades to occupied Ukraine.
Historical precedent exists for North Korea sending military abroad, such as during the Vietnam War and in Angola.
North Korea and Russia have not made any public announcements of troop movements, but there is evidence of unofficial worker deployments.
The alliance between Russia and North Korea is seen as a resurrection of an old pledge dating back to the Korean War in the 1950s.
South Korea is becoming more open to the idea of arming Ukraine, potentially providing artillery shells.
The stronger alliance could impact Russia's relations with China, as Beijing aims to avoid a new Cold War scenario.
Transcripts
on June 19th Russian President Vladimir
Putin and North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un signed an agreement that has
major ramifications for the world what
obligations does each country have under
it could this mean North Korea will
start deploying troops to Russian
occupied parts of Ukraine and can I
comprehend even the basics of
international relations let's find out
as part of a wider diplomatic tour Putin
recently visited North Korea for the
first time in 24 years it's like that
one friend that shows up when they
really need help I mean I wouldn't know
I don't have friends they don't let me
leave this room the two sign what's
called a comprehensive strategic
partnership with a side of mutual
defense pack I often hear these
diplomatic terms thrown around without
any real context of what it means if
you're on the Derpy side like me here's
an easy breakdown of understanding
treaties from weakest to strongest the
weakest is called a friendship treaty
which is basically a symbolic
establishment of goodwi it's the
equivalent of making small talk about
the weather then you've got your trade
agreements like NAFTA for reducing trade
barriers very cold and transactional
like meeting a lady of the night after
the that your strategic Partnerships
here's where the countryes start to
cooperate on political economic and even
sometimes security nonsense after that
is the comprehensive strategic
partnership which is very strong
obligations to one another but the fact
that this one also had a mutual defense
pack means that it's till death do you
part the only treaty stronger would be
like a mutual defense Alliance like NATO
or the Russian Le cioo what are the
specific terms of the agreement it
states that both countries are required
to provide military assistance to one
another if either is attacked by a
foreign Invasion quote without delay by
all means at its disposal end quote in
that case they have to send military aid
and everything they can spare right away
similar to how the war in Ukraine was
the impetus that made Sweden and Finland
join the NATO alliance it's had the
effect of playing Matchmaker with North
Korea and Russia it looks like
everyone's getting picked for the
Kickball team except me it's High School
All Over Again part of the reason this
new agreement has made ramifications for
the world is because Russia will likely
now adjust how they vote at the United
Nations since Russia is one of only five
permanent members of the security
Council they wield massive power this is
because each member of the security
Council has veto power on any resolution
this means if Russia vetos against a
resolution it can't be adopted
regardless of the level of international
support we already started to see this
recently in March 2024 Russia vetoed a
un Security Council resolution
that would have mandated that a panel of
experts would have to monitor North
Korean sanctions compliance any weapons
transfers to North Korea or from them
violate 10 different un sanction
resolutions that Russia supported in the
past however they're changing all that
now the partnership would also make it
easier for the Chinese government to
transfer military equipment to North
Korea who could then indirectly transfer
it to Russian forces this would be a way
to get around Western sanctions
according to R USI North Korea has
already been sending Russia 2 to 3
million artillery shells and thousands
of missiles since 2023 these were sent
in 10,000 containers across Railways and
ships to Russia that's what's at the
Crux of this you scratch my back and
I'll scratch your nuts agreement Russia
gets labor and Munitions and North Korea
gets money and political favors in
return We Now know from news reports
what North Korea is getting in return
this includes shipments of increased
amounts of food and Fuel and oil they've
also unfrozen $9 million in North Korean
Assets Now I should tell you that Kim
jong-un's influential sister has denied
sending weapons to Russia but there's a
lot of photographic and satellite
evidence to support the claims un
monitors confirmed Ukraine's claims that
they'd shot down 40 North Korean made
ballistic missiles Ukraine is becoming
an international melting pot because
reports indicate North Korea might now
be sending or planning to send troops to
Ukraine as early as July this is another
possible result of the alliance between
the two but what's the source of this
nugget of information it came from
chosen which is a privately owned South
Korean cable TV News Network who got the
information from an unnamed South Korean
government official the reason this
rumor got picked up by some major news
outlets was because the Pentagon
actually responded to it and didn't
outright dismiss it yeah I mean that's
certainly something to uh to keep an eye
on if I were North Korean military
personnel management I would be
questioning my choices on uh sending my
forces to be cannon fodder uh and an
illegal war against Ukraine so you're
saying there's a nonzero chance sorry
frankly this is all a bit surreal sounds
like you're saying if France also sends
troops into Ukraine there's a chance
we'll see Korean and French troops fight
this is truly a cursed timeline that
we're living in the South Korean
officials said it would be a deployment
of several engineering units from North
Korea North Korea's military currently
operates 10 engineering brigades they
would be headed to the Russian held
territory in the dunet region allegedly
there they would serve a few different
functions potentially building defensive
fortifications mine clearing mine laying
helping with Logistics runs or as
laborers to rebuild destroyed towns in
the occupied regions the reason this
would add to the challenge for Ukraine
from a tactical point of view is because
it could free up more Russian combat
power to be able to fight on the front
lines who would have otherwise has been
tied up on building fortifications this
factor is part of the reason why the
United States government is now
rethinking allowing several hundred
contractors to be allowed to go to
Ukraine in 2024 this policy shift would
allow defense contractors to help
rebuild tanks and free up hands for
Ukraine to fight the war in Ukraine
appears to be driving Russia who's in
need of Munitions towards closer
relations with pongyang who is in need
of more money and cold Hard Cash
according to the South Korean official
North Korea will likely send these
forces to work as construction workers
where they would earn money from Russia
to send back to the North Korean
government this is an assumption likely
made based in part around the history of
China and North Korea Labor Relations
North Korea could earn an estimated $15
million each year from Russia if they
deployed three engineering brigades to
occupi Ukraine there is some historical
precedent for North Korea sending its
military abroad to fight in 1967 North
Korea sent a number of Pilots to advise
train and fly missions to Aid in the
Vietnam War more recently angolan armed
forces were trained by North Korean
military advisers these were very
limited deployments though the chance of
a major deployment of 10 of thousands
would be needed to make a major
difference in Ukraine although that
can't totally be ruled out it's unlikely
due to language barriers and a lack of
joint training observed between the two
officially North Korea and Russia
haven't made any public announcements of
any troop movements yet but part of the
reason that the claims are still being
taken seriously and as more than just
rumor is because there is evidence that
North Korea has sent workers
unofficially already in February 2024
Korean media reported 300 North Korean
workers were sent to vlat V stock in
Russia one reason this might have been
kept under the radar is because
accepting those workers violates un
sanctions that Russia agreed to
Alexander matora the Russian ambassador
to pongyang said quote there there are
prospects of cooperation between the
dprk and the dumb bouse republics and
they are quite extensive firstly Korean
Builders who are highly qualified
hardworking and ready to work in the
most difficult conditions will be very
serious so the claim from the South
Korean official is that North Korea
would send military engineers disguise
the civilians to work inside occupied
sections in Ukraine further evidence of
this being in the works comes from a
2022 quote from the Russian Deputy Prime
Minister who said they were quote
working on political arrangements to
employ North Korean workers in Russia
possibly 20 to 50,000 to develop the
infrastructure in the Russian Far East
there are currently efforts underway to
rebuild sections of Ukraine that Russia
has flattened the financial times did a
profile on Russia's attempt to rebuild
the occupied Ukrainian city of marapole
that we often don't hear about the city
was annihilated during The Invasion with
90% of the buildings damage are
destroyed and much of the population
fleeing the Russian Federation is now
attemp to rebuild marle into a
functioning City once again as of a year
ago an estimated 50,000 Russians had
already relocated to Apartments within
the depopulated parts of marapole Moscow
is paying billions of rubles to their
construction companies to reconstruct
the occupied regions it appears like the
North Korean Engineers might be assigned
to this kind of reconstruction work but
the reason this has alarmed some people
is the possibility of this Mission
laying the groundwork for morphing and
turning into something else what starts
as a deployment of Engineers could
escalate into infantry in the future
it's the same reason there concerns
about France sending soldiers to the
rear in Ukraine while doesn't mean World
War III it's not a step towards peace
either I think this new alliance is kind
of a resurrection of an old pledge
between the two that dates back to at
least the Korean war in the 1950s the
Soviet Union covertly backed North Korea
during the war according to recent
accounts we know that 70,000 Soviet air
defense troops fought alongside North
Korea the Soviet Union played a secret
unofficial role in The Conflict by
providing over 100 Pilots 63 combat
aircraft including Mig 15 fighter jets
this support was concealed at the time
so the Soviets could maintain plausible
deniability this was done in part to
avoid a nuclear confrontation with the
United States during the Cold War but
don't take my word for it in July 2023
Putin sent a congratulatory message to
King Jong-Un in North Korea to
commemorate the 70th anniversary of the
Korean War Armistice and in that letter
he for the first time officially
acknowledged that the Soviet Union
secretly participated in the Korean War
Putin wrote in the letter quote Soviet
soldiers including pilots who carried
out tens of thousands of combat flights
fought shoulder-to-shoulder with Korean
Patriots and made a great contribution
to the enemy's Annihilation end quote
it'd be similar to the 1950s Korean War
but in Reverse this time North Korea
would be covertly sending Aid to the
Russian Federation ation instead of the
Soviet Union sending Aid to North Korea
following the Korean war in 1961 they
signed a strong defense Alliance Packa
but the close Security deal between the
two was made null and void after the
collapse of the Soviet Union then we saw
it was replaced in the year 2000 but
with a much weaker deal that didn't have
any security guarantees truth be told
relations between Russia and North Korea
were not warm and fuzzy for a while
after that in July 2006 Moscow supported
United Nations security Council
resolution 1695 which condemned the 2006
North Korean missile test following 2006
Russia viewed North Korean missile tests
as a threat to their security on June
15th 2009 China and Russia both
supported un sanctions against North
Korea it wasn't until Russia's invasion
of Ukraine in 2022 that relations
started to change when North Korea
became one of three countries including
Syria and Iran
that recognized the Breakaway regions of
danet and luhansk people's republics in
the eastern Ukraine an interesting way
that this might have the tables turn is
South Korea is now becoming more open to
the idea of arming Ukraine although
300,000 South Korean artillery shells
were allegedly already provided to
Ukraine but they've stopped short of
sending tanks or fighter jets but this
change has prompted South Korea to
suggest that they could be open to
sending the weapons South Korea National
Security adviser Chang Jin said Russia
would be crossing a red line if they
sent High Precision weapon technology to
North Korea Putin responded by saying
quote South Korea has nothing to worry
about but he also warned them against
supplying weapons to keev saying it
would be quote a very big mistake as you
said Russia try uh in desperation to
develop and to strengthen relations with
countries that can provide it with what
it needs to continue the war of
aggression that has started against
Ukraine Russian foreign minister Sergey
lvov claimed that only those who were
planning aggression against either of
these countries would object to this
treaty my favorite part of international
relations Is these countries having
conversations through the media like
this I get why it has to be done this
way but from my dummy perspective seems
like a bizarre High School way to
communicate but I'll have you know in
high school I was voted most likely to
start an anime club which I now that I
say that out loud I realized that was
not a compliment but what does this
stronger alliance mean for Russia's
relations with China let's hear from
someone who is actually an expert in the
field son Yun director of China program
at the Washington based sson Center
Think Tank said Beijing does not want to
form a three-way alliance with North
Korea and Russia because it needs to
keep its options open such a coalition
would mean a new Cold War something
Beijing says it's determined to avoid
aligning itself with panyang and Moscow
would be contrary to China's goals of
maintaining relationships with Europe
and improving ties with Japan and South
Korea Sun said dead end quote now guess
what kind of treaty these two have is it
a treaty of friendship a strategic
partnership according to them it's a no
limits friendship it's like raw dogging
without a safe word it looks like Russia
is trying to establish a group of
friendly states that have had historical
ties to the Soviet Union so to summarize
my totally non-credible diplomatic
understanding of the situation Russia
and North Korea strengthened their
relationship partly because they're both
under strict sanctions then South Korea
got hurt and said that they would maybe
start hanging out with with Ukraine if
Russia helped North Korea just because
we're getting this info through the grap
Vine doesn't mean it's not credible in
the Army we headed a private News
Network which was all the lower enlisted
guys spreading Barracks rumors and 60%
of the time they were true every time in
the geopolitical chess game alliances
are being reshuffled old rivalries
reignited old allies reignited as well
making for truly unpredictable landscape
right now the main difference today is
that the countries can no longer hide
behind plausible deniability and
covertly armed proxy war like they could
during the Cold War this is because
advances and satellite images make it so
anyone you or me we could buy a
satellite image live and confirm what's
happening and who's sending troops where
just like in high school everyone's
forming their clicks and the stakes have
never been higher and my hope is that
nations are able to find a diplomatic
solution to these problems speaking of
which you know Germany's rebuilding
their army transforming it in ways
unseen since the Cold War you can find
out more if you're interested by
clicking the link to this video or
typing in task and purpose Germany
rearmament hit the like And subscribe
button if you found this report valuable
I'm your average infan Chris Cappy
signing off this net time
now got
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