Not Done Yet

Summary

In this April 2026 update, Bob Lucas provides a clear-eyed analysis of Bitcoin’s current bear market. Despite bullish sentiment, institutional buying, and favorable macro conditions, Bitcoin remains near $60,000, showing only modest recovery from recent lows. Technical charts reveal ongoing downtrends, with a potential double bottom forming in the early cycle low window. Short-term bounces may occur toward $76,000–$86,000, but the broader bear trend likely persists. Lucas emphasizes patience, portfolio allocation of 50% Bitcoin and 50% cash, and the importance of waiting for historical cycle windows for accumulation, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook toward $200,000–$250,000.

Takeaways

• 😀 The current Bitcoin market remains in a bear market cycle, with no clear signs of strong recovery.
• 😀 Despite the bullish sentiment and optimism in some quarters, Bitcoin is still struggling to show significant price movement.
• 😀 Bitcoin's price remains near the lows that were seen back in February, with little upward momentum, despite the recovery in traditional equity markets.
• 😀 A large amount of Bitcoin price suppression is likely being caused by whales still selling off, even with institutional support through figures like Michael Saylor.
• 😀 The traditional market cycle of Bitcoin continues to behave in a cyclical manner, with large drops followed by smaller upward bounces, but no sustainable long-term upward movement yet.
• 😀 There's a possibility that Bitcoin could form a double bottom near the $60,000 level, which would suggest a potential bullish future.
• 😀 The market remains in a clear downtrend, as seen from the movement of the 10-month and 20-month moving averages crossing.
• 😀 Bitcoin has underperformed in comparison to traditional equities, which have rebounded strongly to all-time highs after recent corrections.
• 😀 The current market scenario suggests patience is required as Bitcoin may need more time to flush out before any real upside can be expected.
• 😀 The possibility of Bitcoin seeing a significant decline to levels as low as $40,000 (a 67% decline) remains a real possibility based on historical trends.
• 😀 In the long term, the belief in Bitcoin's potential remains strong, and it's expected that Bitcoin could eventually surpass $100,000 and possibly reach up to $250,000 in the coming years.

Q & A

What is the current state of the Bitcoin market according to Bob Lucas?

Bob Lucas believes the Bitcoin market is still in a bear market, showing weak demand despite bullish sentiment from some individuals. He sees Bitcoin's price remaining near the lows of $60,000 and not showing strong signs of recovery.

Why does Bob Lucas believe Bitcoin remains in a bear market?

Lucas attributes Bitcoin’s ongoing bear market to a lack of demand and weakness in price action. Despite large institutional buys and ETF inflows, Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum, especially when compared to other markets like equities, which have reached new all-time highs.

What is the significance of the $60,000 level for Bitcoin in this cycle?

The $60,000 level is seen as a potential low point for Bitcoin in this cycle. Bob Lucas suggests the market could form a 'double bottom' here, but he does not expect Bitcoin to break significantly above this level without first testing the lows.

How does Bitcoin's performance compare to the equity markets in April 2026?

In April 2026, while Bitcoin remains near its lows, equity markets have fully recovered from previous corrections and are reaching new all-time highs. Bob Lucas highlights this disparity, indicating Bitcoin’s relative weakness despite strong recovery in traditional markets.

What does Bob Lucas say about the timing of Bitcoin’s cycle bottom?

Lucas suggests that the cycle bottom for Bitcoin is not yet confirmed. He believes the market may still experience further declines before bottoming out, with a possible 'flush out' before reaching a more definitive low point around mid-2026.

What role do whales play in the current Bitcoin market, according to Bob Lucas?

Whales, or large institutional investors, are playing a significant role in suppressing Bitcoin's price. Despite high-profile buys by figures like Michael Saylor and large ETF inflows, Lucas believes whales are still selling, preventing a major price recovery.

What is Bob Lucas's outlook for Bitcoin in the short term?

Bob Lucas believes that while a short-term rally is possible, the overall trend remains downward. He sees the potential for a short-term upward move, but he warns that this is more likely a counter-trend rally rather than a shift to a new bullish phase.

What does Bob Lucas mean by a 'counter-trend move' in Bitcoin’s price?

A 'counter-trend move' refers to a temporary price increase within a broader downtrend. Bob Lucas suggests that any short-term rally in Bitcoin should be viewed with caution, as it may be followed by a resumption of the bear market, rather than the start of a new bull market.

How does Bob Lucas suggest investors should approach the Bitcoin market right now?

Lucas advises investors to be patient and maintain a long-term perspective. He recommends focusing on accumulating Bitcoin gradually and not trying to time the market perfectly. The goal is to capture the majority of market moves without getting caught up in short-term fluctuations.

What is Bob Lucas’s long-term view on Bitcoin's price?

Lucas is optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential, believing it will eventually surpass $100,000 and potentially reach $200,000 to $250,000 over the coming years. However, he emphasizes the importance of being patient and waiting for the right market conditions rather than rushing to buy at the bottom.