2025 YEAR END STOCK MARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS #SPY #QQQ

Summary

In this video update from Top Trading Academy, the host discusses the bullish market trends leading up to the end of December, emphasizing the Santa Claus rally and its impact on stock prices. The market is currently at an all-time high, with some cautionary signals emerging, particularly around the S&P 500, QQQ, and Bitcoin. The host highlights the importance of vigilance in trading, noting potential pullbacks or reversals, especially as the New Year approaches. Technical indicators suggest mixed signals, urging traders to be cautious when considering long positions and monitor key levels for potential shifts.

Takeaways

• 😀 The market has been bullish, with an 80% chance of going higher before Christmas, and it has reached all-time highs.
• 😀 The Santa Claus rally predicted earlier in December materialized, pushing the market up as anticipated.
• 😀 The speaker emphasizes that the market conditions are still bullish, but correction or pullback is a possibility due to small fluctuations.
• 😀 As 2026 approaches, the speaker mentions offering numerological analysis based on birth dates for members of the community.
• 😀 The S&P 500 shows bullish trends, but there are signals of potential pullbacks due to lower volume and slight divergences in shorter timeframes (1-hour, 30-minute charts).
• 😀 The speaker advises caution when considering long positions at this time, as the market is showing early signs of weakness in certain charts.
• 😀 The QQQ also shows bullish patterns, but volume is low, and caution is recommended before going long.
• 😀 For the IWM (Russell 2000), the speaker observes signs of weakness, with falling tops and a potential short opportunity if certain levels break.
• 😀 Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $80K and $95K, showing some weakness despite trying to form a bullish divergence. Caution is advised for long positions.
• 😀 Tesla shows strength despite being at a high point. While it is bullish, the speaker advises caution due to its proximity to the top, suggesting a cyclical approach for new trades.
• 😀 Nvidia is showing bullish potential, with a squeeze forming and divergence signaling potential upward movement. However, it remains in a sideways cycle and should be watched for further confirmation.

Q & A

What was the market situation before Christmas according to the speaker?

Before Christmas, the market was experiencing a downturn, but the speaker predicted an 80% chance that it would go higher. The market did, in fact, reach an all-time high after that prediction.

What does the speaker say about the current market conditions as of December 28th?

As of December 28th, the market is showing bullish conditions, with the squeeze indicator lifting up and bullish momentum on the daily chart, despite lower volume.

What are the key levels the speaker is monitoring for a potential pullback?

The speaker identifies key levels for a potential pullback as 687 and 680. If the market reaches these levels, it could signal a reversal or further decline.

How does the speaker describe the current market sentiment for the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 shows bullish sentiment but with signs of slight weakness, particularly on the 30-minute and 1-hour charts. The speaker advises caution before entering long positions, as there is a possibility of a pullback.

What technical signals are being observed for the QQQ?

The QQQ is showing bullish conditions with the squeeze indicator and crossing but with low volume. The speaker advises caution, as the market is near resistance and could face rejection.

Why does the speaker suggest caution for going long in the market right now?

The speaker suggests caution because although the market is showing bullish signals, there are signs of weakness, including divergence on shorter timeframes and a double top pattern forming, which could lead to a potential pullback.

What are the conditions for shorting the QQQ, according to the speaker?

Shorting the QQQ is not recommended yet, as the market is still above the cloud on the 30-minute chart, indicating a bullish condition. The speaker suggests waiting for more weakness to develop before considering a short position.

What is the speaker's view on Bitcoin's current market situation?

Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, with support around 80,000 and resistance near 95,000. The speaker notes weakness in the market and suggests being cautious about going long, as the market could break either way.

What is the speaker's outlook on Tesla and Nvidia?

Tesla shows strength but is near its top, with no clear signs of weakness yet. Nvidia is showing bullish signs, with a squeeze formation and an upward divergence, suggesting the potential for further upside.

What is the significance of the 'Santa Claus rally' mentioned by the speaker?

The 'Santa Claus rally' refers to the market's bullish movement during the holiday season. The speaker predicted this rally in a previous video, and it played out as expected, with the market rising toward an all-time high.