"Nobody Realizes How Big Q4 Will be for Bitcoin & Crypto" - Ben Cowen

Summary

In this video, Ben Cowan analyzes Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles, highlighting patterns from past years and their potential recurrence in 2025. He explains how Bitcoin tends to rise in July and August, followed by a September pullback before rallying into the Q4 market cycle peak. Ethereum outperforms altcoins, which haven't yet hit their historical lows against Bitcoin, setting the stage for a potential correction. The analysis emphasizes that altcoins often lag behind Bitcoin, especially in higher interest rate environments. The expected September dip could initiate a final rally for Bitcoin while pushing altcoins lower in their Bitcoin pairs.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin historically rises in July and August, then faces a September pullback to the bull market support band before rallying to a peak in Q4 of post-halving years.
• 😀 The expected September pullback is a regular pattern that typically triggers a market adjustment, including altcoins losing value against Bitcoin, regardless of Bitcoin's price movement in USD.
• 😀 Altcoins often lag behind Bitcoin, with Ethereum already having reached its range lows against Bitcoin, while many altcoins have yet to do so.
• 😀 The market cycle is influenced by seasonal trends and macroeconomic conditions, especially when interest rates are high, leading to Bitcoin's outperformance over altcoins.
• 😀 Ethereum's resilience is attributed to its earlier decline to range lows against Bitcoin, while many altcoins have yet to undergo this phase, which could lead to their decline in the coming months.
• 😀 Historically, Bitcoin has followed a similar pattern in post-halving years: gains in July and August, a pullback in September, and a final rally into the market cycle top in Q4.
• 😀 The September pullback typically brings Bitcoin down to the bull market support band, which for 2025 is estimated to be around $110,000.
• 😀 The bull market support band for Bitcoin is expected to continue moving upward, and a September pullback could coincide with altcoins reaching their range lows, amplifying Bitcoin's dominance.
• 😀 Diminishing returns are evident from previous market cycles, with each rally after a September pullback seeing lower percentage gains compared to the last cycle.
• 😀 Altcoins tend to lose value against Bitcoin both during Bitcoin pullbacks and during the final rally phases, as liquidity shifts back to Bitcoin, especially when Bitcoin's market cycle peaks.

Q & A

What is the reason Ethereum (ETH) is performing well compared to many altcoins?

Ethereum is performing well because it has already reached its historical lows against Bitcoin (BTC), while many altcoins have not yet hit their range lows, making them more vulnerable to decline.

What is the role of the September pullback in the Bitcoin market cycle?

The September pullback typically marks a dip in Bitcoin's price, which often triggers a broader market adjustment, causing altcoins to lose value against Bitcoin, regardless of Bitcoin's price movement in USD.

How does Bitcoin's historical price behavior in post-halving years typically play out?

Historically, in post-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise in July and August, experience a pullback in September, and then rally to a market cycle top in Q4. This pattern has been observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

What does the bull market support band represent, and how does it impact Bitcoin's price movement?

The bull market support band is a key price level, often around the 20-week moving average, where Bitcoin tends to find support after a pullback. It’s a critical point for determining whether the market will continue its upward trajectory or face more significant corrections.

Why do altcoins tend to struggle against Bitcoin during a rally?

Altcoins often struggle against Bitcoin because their price pairs against Bitcoin tend to lag. Altcoins typically experience a decline relative to Bitcoin even when Bitcoin is rising, especially if they haven’t hit their historical lows yet.

What did Ben Cowan predict for altcoins in late August 2025?

Ben Cowan predicted that altcoins would likely reach a local top around late August, between the 22nd and 24th. After this, altcoins would roll over as liquidity shifts back into Bitcoin.

How does the concept of diminishing returns apply to Bitcoin's post-halving cycle?

The concept of diminishing returns suggests that after each post-halving cycle, Bitcoin’s price increase is smaller compared to previous cycles. For example, Bitcoin rallied 1,000% in the first cycle, 500% in the next, and only 70% in the third cycle after the September pullback.

How has Ethereum (ETH) been different from other altcoins in this cycle?

Ethereum has already hit its lows against Bitcoin, making it more resilient compared to other altcoins that still need to drop to their range lows. This positioning has allowed Ethereum to outperform many altcoins in the current market.

Why is there speculation about manipulation in the altcoin market?

Some speculate manipulation is causing altcoin underperformance, but the main reason is that many altcoins never reached their lows against Bitcoin, unlike Ethereum. This means they are more vulnerable to value loss when liquidity flows back into Bitcoin.

What is the expected impact of the September pullback on the altcoin market?

The September pullback in Bitcoin's price is expected to cause altcoins to drop sharply against Bitcoin. This is due to historical patterns where altcoins lose value against Bitcoin, even when Bitcoin’s USD price is stable or rising.