NVDA Stock - Watch For This Next

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the speaker provides a balanced analysis of the stock's current situation. While there are bullish signs, such as a potential bull flag pattern and a strong sweep in the $178-$180 range, concerns arise from the MACD showing lower lows and the weekly indicators suggesting weakening momentum. The speaker remains neutral, awaiting confirmation of a breakout above $183 or a close below $179 to gauge the next move. With earnings coming up on August 27th, the stock's future direction remains uncertain, and options flow reflects mixed sentiment.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia stock closed slightly down at $180.5, aligning closely with the market trend.
• 😀 The stock shows a mix of bullish and bearish signals, currently leaning towards neutral.
• 😀 A potential bullish indicator is the large sweep below the $179 to $180 zone, which could have triggered stop losses, potentially setting up for a rebound.
• 😀 Despite a bullish potential, the MACD is making lower lows, raising some concerns about the stock’s momentum.
• 😀 A weekly MACD showing a lower high could signal a potential reversal or slowdown, similar to past rallies that eventually experienced a decline.
• 😀 The stock could form a bull flag pattern, which might lead to an upside breakout if it reclaims $183 to $184.
• 😀 If Nvidia closes below $179 on a daily basis, it could indicate increased bearish pressure, warranting caution.
• 😀 The analysis highlights a key risk: the MACD on the weekly chart and the SMI indicator showing overbought conditions, which often precede declines in past rallies.
• 😀 There is a mixed options flow, with both bullish and bearish signals, showing indecision in market sentiment.
• 😀 The next key date is Nvidia’s earnings release on August 27th, which could influence the stock’s direction based on the current technical setup.
• 😀 The overall outlook is cautious, with the stock sitting in a neutral zone. Further confirmation will come from price action, either breaking above $183 or falling below $179.

Q & A

What was the closing price of Nvidia's stock on the day of this analysis?

Nvidia's stock closed at $180.5 per share, which was down nearly 1% on the day.

What does the speaker think about Nvidia's stock performance compared to the market?

The speaker mentions that Nvidia's performance is roughly in line with the broader market, as the Qs (NASDAQ) were also down about half a percent.

What bullish indicators does the speaker point out for Nvidia stock?

The bullish signs include the stock being slightly below the 9 EMA, a potential sweep of the stock price below the 179-180 range, and a possible bull flag formation that could lead to upward movement.

What does a 'sweep' refer to in the context of stock trading?

A 'sweep' refers to a sharp, temporary drop in the stock price below key support levels, which then recovers. It’s often used to trigger stop-losses and gather liquidity before the price moves back up.

What is the MACD indicator showing for Nvidia stock?

The MACD is making lower lows, which is a bearish signal. The speaker expresses concern that this trend could signal weakening momentum for Nvidia.

Why is the weekly MACD and SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) concerning for Nvidia's stock?

The speaker highlights that the weekly MACD has formed a lower high, and the SMI is overextended with a bearish crossover, both of which suggest that the current rally may be losing steam.

How does the speaker compare the current situation to past rallies?

The speaker compares the current rally to past euphoric rallies, where similar signals (bearish crossover on the SMI and a lower high on the MACD) preceded significant sell-offs.

What price levels is the speaker watching closely for Nvidia's stock?

The speaker is closely watching the 179 level as a potential support. A daily close below this level could signal caution. On the bullish side, a break above the 183-184 range could indicate strength.

What is the overall sentiment of the speaker regarding Nvidia's stock?

The speaker is currently in a neutral camp, as there are conflicting signals. While there is potential for a bullish continuation (e.g., bull flag breakout), the weakening MACD and weekly indicators suggest caution.

What is the significance of Nvidia's upcoming earnings report mentioned in the video?

The speaker notes that Nvidia's earnings report, due August 27th, is approaching quickly and could have a significant impact on the stock price. The analysis suggests that the stock could experience volatility around this event.