NVDA Stock - NVIDIA Big Move Coming Finally?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the speaker provides a technical analysis of Nvidia's stock performance, which has been sluggish despite staying relatively stable. The discussion focuses on key levels (144 to 145) and the need for the stock to breach these boundaries for any movement. The speaker also highlights concerns over the broader semiconductor market, using the SMH ETF as an indicator. Warning signs like bearish candle patterns and a potential MACD crossover are discussed, along with the broader market's negative sentiment. The video concludes with thoughts on the stock's future movement, leaning towards a short-term pullback, with long-term optimism if it pulls back to the 130-120 range.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia stock has been sluggish, showing little movement despite its premium being absorbed by the market.
• 😀 The stock has been rangebound between 144 and 145 for the entire day, with no clear trend direction.
• 😀 There are warning signs in the semiconductor sector (SMH ETF), which could impact Nvidia's future performance.
• 😀 Nvidia's technical indicators (MACD, stochastic, EMA) show mixed signals, with some bearish divergence forming.
• 😀 The market as a whole is showing signs of potential bearish continuation, with a breakdown in major indices like SPY and QQQ.
• 😀 Despite current bearish signals, Nvidia's long-term outlook on the weekly chart still looks strong if it pulls back to around 130-120 range.
• 😀 The most likely short-term scenario is a continued range between 144 and 145, with no significant break in either direction.
• 😀 The market is showing signs of overextension, making it riskier to go long on Nvidia at current levels.
• 😀 A breach of either 145 or 144 on the 1-hour chart will be a key level to watch for potential directional movement in Nvidia stock.
• 😀 Options flow data for Nvidia shows mixed activity, but there's significant open interest at 145 strike calls and puts, indicating indecision in the market.
• 😀 Although the short-term outlook may seem bearish, long-term investors might view pullbacks as buying opportunities based on Nvidia's overall market position and strength.

Q & A

What is the current state of Nvidia's stock, according to the video?

Nvidia's stock has been sluggish, with a consistent lack of significant movement. The stock closed down 4% for the day, and there are concerns about it being range-bound between 144 and 145.

What is the main technical concern with Nvidia's stock in the short term?

The main concern is that Nvidia's stock is range-bound, stuck between 144 and 145. The bulls have not been able to push past 145, and the stock hasn't closed below 144, which indicates a lack of clear direction.

How does the broader market impact Nvidia's performance?

Nvidia follows the broader market closely, and recent bearish signals in indices like SPY and QQQ could negatively impact Nvidia. The overall market is showing signs of weakness, and Nvidia is vulnerable to these trends.

What is the significance of the inverted hammer candle in the SMH ETF?

The inverted hammer candle in the SMH ETF is seen as a bearish signal, which suggests potential downside for the semiconductor sector, including Nvidia. This candle pattern is a warning sign despite some bullish momentum.

What technical indicators suggest caution for Nvidia's stock?

Several technical indicators suggest caution, including a bearish MACD divergence and the fact that the stock is trading far above its weekly market bias, signaling that it may be overextended.

What is the ideal scenario for Nvidia's stock according to the video?

The ideal scenario would be for Nvidia to breach the 145 level, close above it on the daily chart, and continue toward the 147-148 range to fill the fair value gap.

What is the potential downside risk for Nvidia's stock?

The downside risk includes a pullback to the 130-120 range, as the stock is considered overextended and facing increasing selling pressure, especially in the short term.

How does the MACD indicator behave for Nvidia, and what does it indicate?

The MACD for Nvidia has been showing lower highs on the histogram, indicating a bearish divergence. Despite some green days, this suggests that the stock's upward momentum may be fading.

What does the presenter think about Nvidia's long-term outlook?

The presenter remains optimistic about Nvidia's long-term outlook, especially on the weekly time frame, where the technical indicators suggest that any pullback could present a buying opportunity.

What options activity is being observed for Nvidia?

The options activity for Nvidia is relatively muted, but there were notable trades, including a large 3 million call at the 144.6 strike price. However, the lack of significant bullish activity in the options market may signal uncertainty.