Why the World Economy Has No Need for Russia
Summary
TLDRわずか数年前、世界経済がロシアやその資源を必要としなくなるとは考えられなかった。しかし2024年には、歴史的な変革が起こり、この笑いは過去のものとなった。ウクライナ侵攻後、プーチンはロシアの資源を交渉材料に使おうとしたが、世界経済はロシアの影響を脱却。特にヨーロッパはロシアのガス依存から脱し、代替エネルギー源を確保。石油や農業、金属市場でも同様の変化が見られ、ロシアの経済力は著しく低下。西側諸国の結束がこの変化を可能にした。
Takeaways
- 😲 世界経済はもはやロシアの資源を必要としない。
- 📉 2022年のウクライナ侵攻後、プーチンの経済戦略は失敗に終わった。
- 💡 欧州はロシアのガス依存を減らし、代替供給源を確保。
- 🌍 温暖な冬と西側諸国の団結がエネルギー危機を乗り越える助けとなった。
- ⛽ 米国とノルウェーが欧州の主要ガス供給国に。
- 🛢️ ロシアの石油依存も削減、価格は戦前より低下。
- 🚢 液化天然ガス(LNG)の技術がエネルギー供給の多様化に寄与。
- 🥖 トルコの仲介でウクライナの穀物輸出再開。
- 🔧 ロシアの金属市場の支配力も低下、新しい供給源が登場。
- 💼 経済制裁と企業撤退でロシア経済は急速に悪化。
Q & A
質問1: 2024年の世界経済において、ロシアの資源はどのように位置づけられているのでしょうか?
-答え1: 2024年には、ロシアの資源に対する世界経済の依存度は大幅に低下しており、ロシアの資源がなくても世界経済は成り立つようになっています。
質問2: 2021年時点で、ロシアのガスに最も依存していた国々はどこですか?
-答え2: 2021年時点で、ドイツ、フィンランド、ギリシャ、オーストリアなどの国々がロシアのガスに50%以上依存していました。
質問3: プーチン大統領が2022年にウクライナ侵攻後に試みた経済的な戦略とは何ですか?
-答え3: プーチン大統領は、ロシアの資源輸出を交渉の切り札として世界経済を人質に取ろうとしました。
質問4: 欧州がロシアのガス依存を減らすために取った主なステップは何ですか?
-答え4: 欧州はガス消費の削減、液化天然ガス(LNG)の利用、再生可能エネルギーの増加を通じてロシアのガス依存を減らしました。
質問5: 2022年の暖冬が欧州に与えた影響は何ですか?
-答え5: 2022年の暖冬によりエネルギー需要が低下し、欧州はガスの備蓄を増やすことができました。
質問6: 欧州がLNGに依存する理由は何ですか?
-答え6: LNGはパイプラインを必要とせず、海上タンカーで輸送できるため、輸送の柔軟性が高いからです。
質問7: ロシアの石油市場における価格キャップの影響は何ですか?
-答え7: 価格キャップによりロシアの石油収益は減少し、価格は低下しました。
質問8: OPEC+の生産調整が失敗に終わった理由は何ですか?
-答え8: 西側諸国の連携により、OPEC+の未使用キャパシティが厳しく監視され、サウジアラビアがロシアを助けることが困難になったからです。
質問9: ロシアの金属市場における支配力が低下した理由は何ですか?
-答え9: 他の国々が新しい鉱業プロジェクトを立ち上げ、ロシアの金属供給を代替する動きが進んだからです。
質問10: ロシアの「東方シフト」戦略の課題は何ですか?
-答え10: ロシアのパイプラインインフラが主にヨーロッパ向けであり、アジア向けの新しいパイプライン建設には多大な時間とコストがかかるためです。
Outlines
😀 世界経済におけるロシアの資源依存からの脱却
数年前には信じられなかったが、2024年には世界経済はもはやロシアとその資源を必要としない状況に変わった。特に2022年のウクライナ侵攻以降、ロシアの経済的戦略は失敗に終わった。西側諸国の連帯と異常に暖かい2022年の冬がこの変化を支えた。
🌍 ロシア産ガスからの脱却戦略
ヨーロッパはロシア産ガスへの依存を減らすために様々な手段を講じた。ガスの削減を求め、代替ガス供給源を確保し、再生可能エネルギーを増やしたことで、ロシアからのガス依存は50%から9%に減少した。
💡 LNGによるガス供給の多様化
液化天然ガス(LNG)はパイプラインを必要とせず、タンカーで運ぶことができる。アメリカやノルウェーが主要な供給国となり、ヨーロッパのガス供給を支えた。中国の国内供給への転換も市場の変化に寄与した。
🛢️ ロシア産石油の代替供給
ロシアの石油輸出に対する制裁や価格キャップにより、アメリカやカナダ、ブラジルが供給を増やした。OPEC+の産油調整も西側諸国の対応により失敗。ロシアの石油市場は大きな損失を被り、国内経済にも影響が及んでいる。
🍞 食料と金属市場への影響
トルコがウクライナの穀物輸出を再開させたことで、ロシアの食料戦略は失敗。金属市場でも代替供給源が確保され、アメリカは戦略的備蓄を増やし、南米やアフリカでの新しい鉱業プロジェクトが進行中。
📉 ロシア経済の崩壊
西側の制裁と共同努力により、ロシア経済は急速に悪化。制裁が奏功し、ロシアの経済報告も不完全で、データが隠蔽されている。政府の予算赤字も拡大し、長期的にはロシアの経済的影響力は失われる見込み。
🌏 東へのシフト戦略の限界
プーチンはアジア市場へのシフトを提唱しているが、ガスと石油の輸出インフラの不足や低価格の売却により、経済的には無意味。ロシアの石油市場は急速に縮小しており、西側技術に依存する製造業も苦境に立たされている。
💰 ロシアの経済的な余裕は本当か?
プーチンはロシアの財政的な余裕を主張しているが、3000億ドルの外貨準備は凍結されており、残りの準備金も急速に減少している。国内の財政赤字が拡大し、政府の財政政策は長期的には持続不可能。
🏭 ロシア産業の崩壊
国際的なサプライチェーンの切断により、ロシアの製造業はインフレに苦しみ、既存機械の部品を再利用する事態に陥っている。航空産業も同様に崩壊の危機にあり、ロシア経済全体が下り坂にある。
🔗 制裁と西側の対策
西側の制裁と企業の撤退がロシア経済に大きな打撃を与えた。制裁が不完全であるため、さらなる金融制裁が検討されている。ロシア経済は内部から崩壊しつつあり、さらなる制裁がその崩壊を加速させる可能性が高い。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡世界経済
💡ロシアの資源
💡エネルギー戦争
💡代替エネルギー源
💡液化天然ガス(LNG)
💡石油価格上限
💡農産物供給
💡戦略的備蓄
💡国家財政
💡制裁
Highlights
2024年、歴史的なグローバルシフトが起こり、ロシアとその資源が世界経済にとって不可欠ではなくなった。
2021年には、ロシアのガスの83%がヨーロッパに輸出されていた。
プーチン大統領は、2022年のウクライナ侵攻後、ロシアの資源を交渉の切り札として使用するつもりだった。
西側諸国の連帯と強さが、プーチンのエネルギー戦略を打ち破る重要な要因となった。
2022年の異常に暖かい冬が、エネルギー需要を減少させ、西側の対応を助けた。
ヨーロッパは、ロシアのガス依存を9%にまで減少させた。
液化天然ガス(LNG)が、ロシアのガスを置き換える主要な方法の一つとなった。
アメリカはヨーロッパに推定550億立方メートルのLNGを供給した。
ノルウェーがロシアに代わってEUの最大のパイプラインガス供給国となった。
ロシアの石油はもはや世界経済にとって不可欠ではなくなった。
アメリカ、カナダ、ブラジル、ベネズエラが共同で400万バレルの石油を生産した。
サウジアラビアとロシアがOPEC+で協力して石油生産を削減しようとしたが、西側諸国の圧力で阻止された。
トルコが仲介した協定により、ウクライナの穀物輸出が再開された。
ロシアの金属供給も代替可能であり、新たな鉱山プロジェクトが進行中。
ロシア経済は制裁と国際的な努力により急速に悪化している。
Transcripts
If, just a few short years ago, anyone suggested the world economy would no
longer need Russia and its resources, they would probably be ridiculed. Yet, in 2024,
a historic global shift has taken place, rendering this laughter nothing but a whisper of the past.
But let’s be honest – few people would have predicted
such a massive change in such a short time. After all, it was only in 2021 when a staggering
83% of Russian gas was being exported to Europe. Dozens of countries were at least 50% dependent on
this gas, including Germany, Finland, Greece, and Austria. At the same time, countries like Japan
and China were among Russia’s top consumers of liquefied natural gas (LNG). That’s why
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, believed that he could hold the global economy hostage
following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, using Russian commodity exports as a bargaining chip.
But it seems like Putin’s economic gambits can be added to the increasingly long list
of miscalculations the Russian president has made since invading Ukraine, right up there
with underestimating the people of Ukraine. Though the world economy is certainly not
at its peak, it hasn’t succumbed to Putin’s stranglehold, leading to an unexpected yet obvious
conclusion – it no longer needs Russia. How is this possible?
Given how dependent the global supply chains were on Russian products,
how did the West manage to beat Putin on this second war front he established – the energy war?
Well, it turns out the joint strength and solidarity of
the West was another aspect Putin miscalculated. Of course, the efforts to find alternative energy
sourcing and establish collaborative initiatives were aided by an unseasonably warm 2022 winter,
which lowered the overall demand for energy in the following months and years. It seems like
Mother Nature is an unwitting ally in the West’s response to Putin’s miscalculated energy strategy.
Let’s see what this response has entailed in more detail.
To do this, we must first define the areas where the world economy has been the most
dependent on Russia’s exports. Sure, gas is undoubtedly No. 1, but we shouldn’t minimize
the critical role Russian oil, metal, and agriculture have played in global trade.
Still, No. 1 is No. 1, so let’s start by examining how the West found a way to
mitigate the world’s reliance on Russian gas. As already mentioned, this reliance was quite
pervasive, with Europe relying on Russia for almost 50% of its total gas supply. So, it’s
no wonder Russia exported roughly 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, accounting
for half of the country’s federal revenue. These figures gave Putin the confidence to
cut off gas supplies to Europe indefinitely in September 2022. Though the Kremlin claimed this
move was a response to the West’s punitive economic sanctions, a more sinister agenda
soon became apparent. Putin’s goal was for Europeans to freeze in cold homes,
forcing them to turn on their leaders and demand them to cease support for Ukraine.
But that’s far from what actually happened. Though Europe was presented with a terrible
choice – give in to Putin’s whims or let people freeze to death, it came up with a third option
rather quickly. This option was to secure alternative gas supplies for its energy needs.
However, this option is only one of three steps the European Commission made to weaken
the grip Russia had on its economy. Step 1? Demanding gas reduction.
This step was initiated long before Russia cut off the gas supplies,
as the country was already seen as an unreliable supplier. With this move,
Europe was able to create a joint storage and fill it as much as 82%.
Step 2 is where the alternative gas sources come into play. The goal was clear – diversify away
from Russian fossil fuels. Besides natural gas, this also included finding alternative
sources of oil and coal, as we’ll discuss later. But what did it take to replace Russian gas?
There are two primary answers to this question – one, turning to liquefied natural gas, and two,
seeking more reliable suppliers for piped gas. Europe managed to do both,
with the U.S. supplying an estimated 55 billion cubic meters of liquified natural gas (LNG) to
Europe and Norway overtaking Russia as the European Union’s biggest piped gas supplier.
Paired with increases in supply from renewable sources–which was Step 3
proposed by the European Commission–Europe has managed to reduce its dependence on Russian
gas to an impressive 9%. This alone marked a pivotal stride toward energy autonomy, forging
a new chapter in the history of the world economy. As already mentioned, a warm winter also came to
Europe’s rescue. Thanks to this, Europe managed to accomplish two things – avoid the worst-case
scenario of letting its residents freeze and accumulate gas in its storage tanks.
For instance, German storage tanks were only 54% full at the beginning of 2022
but reached a record high of 91% in 2023. With many countries following in Germany’s
footsteps, it’s clear that Europe has assured sufficient energy supply to sustain itself
while making alternative energy sources fully operational. The ultimate goal is to completely
switch to LNG by raising its export capacity to over 200 billion cubic meters. If you remember,
200 billion cubic meters of natural gas is how much Russia trades yearly,
meaning this move could replace the country’s exports—and eliminate Russia’s seat at the world
economy table— once and for all. But why LNG, and where is all
this LNG coming from? Let’s start with the why.
Unlike piped gas, LNG doesn’t require pipelines for transport. Instead, gas is transformed into
liquid using a process called liquefaction, transported on ocean tankers, and then
converted back to gas at its final destination. This technology is still relatively new, with even
the U.S., the world’s largest LNG exporter, using it in full effect for the first time in 2016.
As far as the quantities go, global LNG markets are growing rapidly to accommodate the new demand.
However, it should be noted that a major factor in providing enough LNG for Europe is that China, the
world’s largest LNG importer, is gradually turning to domestic sources instead of global ones. Pair
this with the lower overall demand for LNG due to existing supplies, and you’ll understand
why the world economy is expected to make a full recovery after such a tumultuous period.
OK, so we’ve covered the gas issue. But what about oil?
Russia is one of the world’s largest oil exporters, delivering as many as 9 million
barrels per day at its peak. In 2021, this figure was about 7.9 million per day, which is still
a major contribution to the global oil market. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil
prices skyrocketed by almost 20% as the U.S. and Europe considered a ban on the country’s imports.
Eventually, the G7 Summit opted to implement oil price caps in an effort to limit Russia’s earnings
from one of its most profitable commodities. Putin responded by announcing a ban on crude
oil sales to countries participating in these price caps, starting on February 1, 2023. Now,
you might think this caused the oil prices to spike once again. At least Putin was certainly
counting on it. But again, the complete opposite happened – the prices went down.
This made one thing abundantly clear – the world no longer
needs Russian oil. But how is this possible? Well, it’s pretty much the same as with gas.
Alternative sources keep popping out, producing enough oil to replace any “lost” Russian oil
seamlessly. In the second half of 2022 alone, countries like the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and
Venezuela truly stepped up, producing 4 million barrels a day in total. Even better, the price of
this oil is even lower than before the war, making Putin’s attempt to influence oil prices futile.
Even Putin seemingly got the message, as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced
that the government was ready to cut daily oil output by 700,000 barrels in December 2022.
However, it’s not all good news in this department.
Though Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the world, was supposed to be a U.S. ally,
the country has seemingly partnered with Russia to manipulate the price of oil. These two countries
have acted together in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries—Plus
(OPEC+) to lower their oil production, thus causing a shortage in the global market.
But this devious game quickly came to a screeching halt.
The West has once again united and subjected OPEC+’s major unused capacity to intense scrutiny,
preventing Saudi Arabia from coming to Russia’s rescue time after time.
Saudi Arabia isn’t the only ally that has seemingly turned its back on Russia. So
did Turkey, essentially destroying another Putin’s gambit to control the world economy – agriculture.
Putin tried to weaponize food supplies—or grain, to be precise—by holding Ukrainian supplies
hostage and even shelling the agricultural infrastructure in the country. However,
Turkey managed to broker a deal, which resulted in opening Ukrainian ports back up following
a lengthy blockade. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, achieved this by promising
to allow Russia to export more food supplies and commodities through the Black Sea grain corridor.
This just leaves us with metal. Russia has historically dominated
several metal markets, including nickel, titanium, and palladium. Fearing that Putin would try to
weaponize metal, too, many buyers started to look for alternative sources of these valuable metals.
The U.S., for instance, opted to restore its dormant strategic reserves of key metals,
aiming to mitigate potential disruptions in the supply chain. Throw new mining projects
in South America and Africa into the mix, and it becomes clear that even the Russian
metal supply can be replaced permanently in a few years. Major moves have already been made
in the cobalt and nickel markets, which should add sufficient supply to offset any potential
disruption in the following year or two. So, where does all this leave Russia?
With zero remaining leverage in the world economy, it appears. All these powerful
moves by the Western nations taught Putin a valuable lesson – it’s much easier for buyers
to replace an unreliable supplier than it is for suppliers to reach new markets.
Even if Russia manages to secure new buyers for its gas, the diminished demand and altered market
dynamics mean that these potential customers are unlikely to match the lucrative deals that
European countries once provided. This translates to a substantial financial blow for Russia.
Things look pretty much the same in the oil department.
Though Russia has managed to secure a mighty pool of buyers in the east,
led by China and India, the country’s flagship oil is now selling at half the global price. Why?
Russia’s oil buyers might not participate in the G7 oil price caps explicitly,
but they sure have used these caps to their advantage. For instance, India is buying more
than 30 times more Russian oil than the previous year, but it’s doing so with discounts of up to
50%. Since Russia doesn’t really have a choice in the matter, it’s hardly making any profit.
With this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Kremlin’s economic reports have become
progressively more selective. Pre-war, all the foreign trade data was updated monthly,
including the following: Oil and gas production levels
Commodity export quantities Capital inflows and outflows
Financial reports from prominent companies Foreign direct investment data
Now, these reports are either withheld or published incompletely,
with all the unfavorable metrics omitted. This has spread throughout the Russian government,
with even the country’s Federal Agency for Air Transport, Rosaviatsiya, no longer publishing
data on airport passenger volumes. These desperate moves can only mean one
thing – all the international sanctions and joint efforts have paid off, and the Russian economy is
deteriorating. And it’s deteriorating quickly. So, is that it? Has Russia’s economic
leverage irreversibly crumbled? If you ask Putin, the answer will be a resounding
no. Never one to admit defeat, Russia’s president keeps pedaling the same old talking points,
hoping to maintain a façade of resilience. But let’s humor Putin for a second.
Let’s examine his talking points one by one to determine whether they indicate that
Russia won’t let go of its grasp on global influence any time soon or they are nothing
more than desperate myths by a desperate man. First up – one of Putin’s favorite talking points,
the so-called “Pivot to the East.” Essentially, Putin is claiming that
Russia can prosper by redirecting its gas exports to Asia instead of the Western
nations. But the truth is this simply isn’t feasible, at least for a few more years.
The only gas Russia can make a significant profit on is piped gas, as liquefied natural gas makes
less than 10% of the country’s total gas capacity. And as its name suggests, piped gas needs pipes
to be transported. Russia does have a powerful system of fixed pipelines for carrying gas. But
most of these pipelines flow toward Europe and through Ukraine, which isn’t exactly convenient
for the whole “Pivot to the East” shtick. To make matters worse, these pipelines can’t
be connected to a separate pipeline network linking Eastern Siberia to Asia. This means
that the only way for Russia to export piped gas to the east is to construct new pipelines.
It goes without saying that this is an extremely time-consuming endeavor that poses significant
financial and logistical challenges for any country, let alone one at war. Although some
projects have already been initiated, it will take years for them to become operational. That
is if Russia doesn’t go bankrupt before. Let’s say Russia manages to construct an
East-bound pipeline system for argument’s sake. Even then, it’s improbable the country will be
able to export enough gas to match its pre-war European exports. Just compare the 170 billion
cubic meters of natural gas sent to Europe to the measly 16.5 billion sent to China, Russia’s
biggest ally in Asia, and you’ll get the picture. This gap, or should we say chasm, essentially
makes any project related to Russia-Asia pipelines a waste of time and money. Even
if he decides to proceed with this foolish project, Russia will be long forgotten in the
world economy by the time the last pipe is laid. However, this doesn’t stop Putin from continuing
to praise Asia as some promised land. In his words, the continent is also the perfect
market for increased oil sales. And as already mentioned, he is right to some extent. Russia is,
in fact, selling more oil to Asia. But at what cost? And we mean this quite literally.
Russian oil has historically been sold at premium prices, with discounts never
surpassing $5 per barrel. Well, currently, these discounts go up to $35 per barrel as buyers
like China and India drive a hard bargain. Given that Russia has nowhere else to turn,
these unprecedented discounts have become a regular occurrence in the Russian oil market.
But that’s not the only problem in Putin’s “Pivot to the East” plan for oil sales.
Like gas, oil has historically been sent to Asia in much smaller quantities than
to Europe. Given that it takes approximately 35 days for Russian oil tankers to reach East Asia,
this shouldn’t come as a surprise, especially considering that the same tankers can reach
Europe in as little as two days. Given the high cost of transport and
low selling prices, it’s easy to conclude that Russia is barely breaking even on oil sales,
let alone making a significant profit. That’s not to mention the high cost of oil production that
heavily relies on Western technology. Whichever way you look at it, it’s a lose-lose scenario for
Russia but a huge win for countries hoping to do away with Russia on the world economy stage.
Again, unsurprisingly, Putin doesn’t acknowledge this in any way. Instead, all that comes from
Russia are talks of the country’s steady finances, with hundreds of billions of dollars in rainy-day
funds. This way, Putin is sending a clear message – even without gas and oil sales, the Kremlin’s
finances won’t be strained anytime soon, allowing Putin to continue destabilizing the world economy.
But is this the truth? Does Putin have enough money to keep
Russia forcibly entrenched in global affairs? Again, there’s some truth to these statements,
but as always, they have been twisted to suit Putin’s agenda. So,
yes, Russia does have substantial rainy day funds, but no, they aren’t a cure-all. Why?
For starters, at least $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves is frozen,
thanks to a joint endeavor by allies like the U.S. and Japan. Not only are the funds
out of reach for Putin and Russia, but there have also been some talks of seizing these
assets to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. The rest of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are
rapidly dwindling, losing dozens of billions of dollars since the onset of the conflict in
Ukraine. The theory that Russia is gradually running out of money is also supported by the
fact that the country has accumulated a massive budget deficit in 2022. To understand just how
massive this deficit is, you should know that the Russian Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov,
suggested using as much as one-third of the country’s National Wealth Fund to pay
for it. This fund, aka Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was worth almost $150 billion at the time.
Interestingly, despite the suggestions of his Finance Minister, Putin actually
claims that Russia is running a budget surplus thanks to a series of dramatic fiscal projects
and high energy prices. The dramatic projects in question include sweeping asset seizures,
which are essentially turning Russia into a kleptocracy. While this might yield positive
short-term results, it’s setting the Russian economy on the road to ruin in the long run.
And with it, Russia’s hopes of ever reclaiming its spot at the top of the world economy.
This, of course, means that the budget surplus is another myth propagated by the Kremlin. Any
objective financial expert can see that Putin’s reckless spending is unsustainable
and will inevitably cause financial turmoil for the country. That is if it hasn’t already.
This financial turmoil has expanded to almost every aspect of the Russian economy.
The sectors heavily relying on international supply chains have it the worst, with some of them
being hit by inflation of up to 60%. In addition, the manufacturers in these sectors have to
make do with what they can find in Russia, leading them to cannibalize and recycle parts of existing
machines. This has gone so far that some reports suggest that the Russian military equipment
found on the ground in Ukraine is filled with semiconductors from refrigerators and dishwashers.
Even aircraft manufacturers resort to similar practices despite cannibalized aircraft being
inherently unsafe for operation. With this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising
that the number of aircraft failures in Russia increased by 320% in 2023.
Domestic spending isn’t any better, despite the Kremlin labeling it as “healthy.” Unfortunately
for Putin and Russia, there’s nothing healthy about consumer spending and retail sales
decreasing by 20% year-over-year. But leave it to Putin to find a way to spin almost any narrative.
Even the exit of all the major Western companies from Russia has been presented as a winning
scenario for the country and its loyal elite. This has to do with Putin’s stringent exit
conditions and taxes, which caused these companies to declare over $100 billion
in losses since the start of the war in Ukraine. But as much as Putin tries to paint a rosy
picture, the truth is that major business pulling out of Russia can only be a bad thing. Even if the
remaining domestic companies have a short-term boost in sales and revenue, they have no future
without Western technology, as proven by the dramatic demise of the Russian aircraft industry.
By now, it’s apparent that a downward spiral is all you can see, regardless
of which part of the Russian economy you scrutinize. But if you ask Putin,
any dips resulting from international sanctions and businesses retreating
from Russia are now over, allowing the country to recover steadily.
Of course, this also couldn’t be further from the truth.
Even with all the measures against Russia, the country continues to draw enough money to obscure
its structural economic weaknesses and fund Putin’s extravagant endeavors. This means that
the sanctions against Russia are incomplete. The only way to ensure Russia can’t bounce back from
the current economic challenges is to introduce new financial and energy sanctions, which are
already widely discussed among Ukraine’s allies. Given that Russia is quite literally crumbling
from the inside, these will only serve as the final nail in its coffin.
But as well as the plan to freeze out Russia from global affairs is going, it’s important to
note that this fight has been nothing short of a Herculean endeavor. While the Western allies
might score victory after victory, each comes at a cost. Regardless of how well the world
economy bounces back, it’s clear that the war in Ukraine has irreversibly impacted numerous lives,
altered trade flows, and transformed supply chains. Let’s discuss this impact in more detail.
There was lots of talk about alternative gas sources in this video. But there’s one point
we’re yet to mention – the cost of those sources. There’s no doubt about it – European businesses
and individuals have experienced significantly higher gas prices since the onset of the
Ukrainian conflict. These prices are arguably the only reason some experts believe a return
to Russia’s supplies might be inevitable. But this won’t happen if Europe has any say.
As soon as the gas prices spiked, the European governments sprang into action,
introducing various fiscal subsidies and transfer payments to ease this significant
economic pressure on consumers. In other words, we find ourselves
in a familiar situation – Russia tries to disrupt the world economy, but the Western allies swiftly
counteract. Plus, looking into how individual countries and industries have responded over time
reveals that Russia’s disruption is significantly less catastrophic than initially feared.
Sure, the road to recovery might be long and bumpy, and the world economy might limp
along it instead of sprinting, but we can safely conclude that Russia will soon have no part in it.
What do you think? Do you agree that Russia’s energy and commodities have been weakened
beyond repair? Or do you believe Putin is still in a position to disturb the global
economy and its recovery? Share your opinions in the comments section below.
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