What is acceptable risk?

Summary

Mickey Leonard, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, discusses the concept of acceptable risk in the context of swine and poultry industries. She explains the process of risk assessment, which includes identifying hazards, evaluating likelihood and consequences, and implementing mitigation strategies. Leonard emphasizes the importance of collaboration with stakeholders and the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods to determine risk levels. She also highlights the role of pre-movement isolation periods and targeted surveillance in reducing the spread of diseases. The presentation concludes with the notion that acceptable risk is case-specific and must be balanced through dialogue between regulatory bodies and the industry.

Takeaways

• 🔬 Mickey Leonard is a researcher for the Secure Fruit Systems team at the University of Minnesota, focusing on risk assessments for the swine and poultry industries.
• 📈 Risk is defined by the World Organization for Animal Health as the likelihood of an adverse event occurring and the magnitude of its biological and economic impact on animal or human health.
• 🚨 The Secure Food Systems team conducts risk assessments to evaluate the potential spread of foreign animal diseases and their impact on agricultural continuity.
• 🤝 Risk assessments are collaborative, involving federal and state regulators, veterinarians, and industry representatives to understand the full extent of risk.
• 📊 Risk assessments combine both qualitative and quantitative analysis, looking at the probability of transmission and detection of viruses in farms.
• 🧩 The risk analysis framework includes hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.
• 🛡️ Pre-movement isolation periods are critical for biosecurity, minimizing the likelihood of exposure to pathogens and increasing the chances of detection before movement.
• ⚖️ Risk is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of an event by its consequence, considering both direct and indirect effects.
• 🏞️ Risk management involves implementing feasible mitigations based on scientific principles and considering the experiences and expertise of diverse stakeholders.
• 📉 Acceptable risk is determined on a case-by-case basis, balancing regulatory requirements with additional measures that farms can implement to reduce personal risk.
• 💬 Effective risk communication is essential, especially when dealing with different risk appetites and perceptions among stakeholders.

Q & A

What is the role of Mickey Leonard in the Secure Fruit Systems team at the University of Minnesota?

Mickey Leonard is a researcher for the Secure Fruit Systems team at the University of Minnesota. She works with a team to produce risk assessments for all species, focusing on the continuity of business movements for the swine and poultry industries, as well as the aquatic industry.

What is the definition of 'risk' according to the World Organization for Animal Health?

The World Organization for Animal Health defines risk as the likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of an adverse event or effect to animal or human health.

What are the main concerns when conducting risk assessments for swine and foreign animal diseases?

The main concerns are the likelihood that a farm might be infected and the potential spread of the disease to other farms, locations, or susceptible species.

How do the risk assessments facilitate agricultural continuity of business?

The risk assessments facilitate agricultural continuity by providing science-based evaluations of the likelihood and consequences of specific pathogens, allowing for the implementation of measures to reduce risk and maintain business operations.

What is the difference between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments?

Qualitative risk assessments evaluate the likelihood and consequences of a risk without numerical values, while quantitative risk assessments use numerical data to calculate the probability of transmission and the potential impact of an event.

What is the purpose of the pre-movement isolation period in risk management?

The pre-movement isolation period is a critical biosecurity component that minimizes the likelihood of a premises being exposed to a pathogen and increases the likelihood of detecting an infected premises, thereby reducing the risk of moving infected but undetected animals or animal products.

How does the risk assessment framework start with hazard identification?

The risk assessment framework begins with hazard identification by considering the pathogen of concern, understanding its concepts, and how it operates, which is essential for evaluating the likelihood and consequences of its entry, establishment, and spread within a region.

What are the components of risk management in the context of the risk assessment process?

Risk management involves taking the information from the risk assessment and implementing mitigation measures to reduce the level of risk, such as enhanced biosecurity measures, targeted surveillance, and ensuring compliance with good agricultural practices.

How is the overall risk determined in the risk assessment process?

The overall risk is determined by qualitatively combining the likelihoods of individual pathways, assuming all applicable preventative measures are in place, and considering the potential consequences and mitigations that can be implemented.

What is the concept of 'acceptable risk' and how is it determined?

Acceptable risk is a level of risk that is deemed appropriate and tolerable by stakeholders, including regulatory bodies and the industry. It is determined on a case-by-case basis, considering the specific circumstances, potential consequences, and the effectiveness of implemented mitigation measures.

How does the Secure Food Systems team approach the challenge of balancing personal experiences with empirical data in risk assessments?

The team balances personal experiences with empirical data by ensuring that the risk assessment is representative of the farms in general, considering the evidence supporting different thoughts, and incorporating the expertise and experiences of the diverse work group members.

What is the 'Swiss cheese' approach in risk management and how is it applied?

The 'Swiss cheese' approach in risk management refers to layering different mitigation measures to enhance protection against risks. Each layer represents a different control measure, and by stacking these layers, potential gaps in individual measures can be covered by others, creating a more robust defense against risks.

How does the Secure Food Systems team communicate the results of risk assessments to stakeholders with different risk appetites and perceptions?

The team communicates risk assessment results by working closely with individual farms, state, and federal regulators to provide support and understanding on a case-by-case basis. They also create permit guidances that condense important information from lengthy risk assessments, making it more understandable and accessible.

How are risk assessments conducted by the Secure Food Systems team, and what factors drive the decision to do them remotely?

Risk assessments are primarily conducted remotely through Zoom work groups and literature reviews. The decision to conduct assessments remotely is driven by the ability to gather comprehensive information from stakeholders and industry representatives, as well as the practicality of conducting extensive reviews without the need for on-site visits.