Surviving The Noise: Election Results & Outlook Of #Modi3 | June 2024, Portfolio Update by Atul Suri

Summary

In this video, the speaker reflects on a tumultuous week in the market influenced by election outcomes and exit polls, leading to significant fluctuations and investor reactions. Despite the volatility, the manager remained steadfast, making no new stock purchases or sales, resulting in a portfolio increase of over 3%. The speaker anticipates political continuity with a focus on infrastructure and social reforms, suggesting that market trends and sector performances will likely remain stable, with a softer approach to contentious social issues.

Takeaways

• 📈 Excitement in the markets: The speaker reflects on a particularly eventful week in the markets, marked by significant ups and downs, influenced by election outcomes and exit polls.
• 📊 Market reactions to election results: The markets initially reacted to exit polls favoring a particular party, leading to a surge in certain stocks and a rush of investor interest.
• 📞 Client interactions: The speaker describes receiving numerous calls from clients wanting to adjust their portfolios in response to the changing political and market narratives.
• 🤔 Changing perceptions on corporate governance: The speaker notes a shift in the perception of corporate governance issues, with investors becoming less concerned about such matters when stock prices rise.
• 📉 Market volatility: The script describes a day of significant market decline, followed by a partial recovery, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty in the market.
• 📈 End of the week surge: The markets ended the week on a high note, with a strong upward movement led by tech stocks, prompting further calls from clients.
• 🔢 Political assessment: The speaker provides a political analysis, suggesting that the ruling party is likely to have a comfortable majority, even without some of its allies.
• 🤝 Modi's alliance management: The speaker acknowledges Modi's flexibility and past success in managing alliances, suggesting this will continue in the new political term.
• 🏗️ Infrastructure and social reforms: The speaker anticipates continued focus on infrastructure-related reforms, but a softer approach to social issues due to a lack of broad support.
• 💼 Portfolio strategy: Despite the market excitement, the speaker's strategy was to remain largely inactive, not buying or selling new stocks, based on the belief in the continuity of market trends.
• 🌍 Global market context: The speaker concludes with a note of confidence in the markets, considering the global context and the potential for continued outperformance of the current portfolio.

Q & A

What was the main theme of the video script?

The main theme of the video script is the narrator's experience and analysis of the market reactions and investor behavior during the election results week and its impact on portfolios.

What significant event occurred on 31st of May according to the script?

On the 31st of May, which was the last day of polling, exit polls indicated a favorable outcome for the Charo party, causing a surge in market activity and investor inquiries.

How did the markets react on the day after the exit polls were released?

The markets reacted positively, going up by 3.25% and reaching lifetime highs, with Adani stocks and PSU stocks performing particularly well.

What was the investor sentiment regarding corporate governance during the market surge?

The investor sentiment shifted, with concerns about corporate governance being temporarily set aside in favor of capitalizing on the market surge, indicating a change in priorities.

How did the market perform on Tuesday after the real numbers were released?

The market performed poorly, with a significant drop of almost 8 to 9% at one stage, recovering slightly to close about 6% lower.

What sectors were affected by the market downturn on Tuesday?

PSU stocks and defense stocks were particularly affected, with investors expressing concern about the portfolio's exposure to these sectors.

What was the investor's reaction to the market recovery on Wednesday?

Investors were shaken by the previous day's fall and did not top up, but there was a renewed interest in consumer-facing stocks, which were considered undervalued.

What was the market's performance on Thursday?

The market had a strong recovery, going up about 8.9%, with calls in the evening inquiring about the purchase of PSU stocks at the bottom.

What was the final market performance on Friday as described in the script?

On Friday, the markets closed at a lifetime high, up by 2%, led by Tech and STS, prompting calls about topping up investments.

What was the narrator's strategy throughout the week of market volatility?

The narrator's strategy was to do nothing, not buying or selling any new stocks, and allowing the portfolio to rise by over 3% despite market fluctuations.

What is the narrator's political assessment of the election outcome?

The narrator believes in the continuity of the government, with the NDA having a strong majority, and Modi's ability to handle alliances and manage a softer touch on social issues.

What are the expected impacts on sectors and themes in the market according to the narrator?

The narrator expects infrastructure-related reforms such as digitization and clean energy transition to continue, while social issues like CAA, NRC, and land/labor reforms may take a backseat due to lack of support and ground support.