Chatib Basri Bongkar Strategi Dagang Trump, Apa Dampaknya ke Indonesia? | ROSI

Summary

The video discusses the economic implications of Trump's reciprocal tariff policy, particularly focusing on its impact on global trade, Indonesia, and the broader ASEAN region. Dr. Muhammad Katib Basri analyzes the trade war dynamics, highlighting how Trump uses tariffs as a bargaining tool, and warns of the potential negative effects of retaliatory tariffs, drawing parallels with the Great Depression. Despite concerns over a global economic slowdown, Indonesia is somewhat insulated due to its limited reliance on exports to the U.S. The video also emphasizes the importance of good policy responses and regulatory stability.

Takeaways

• 😀 Trump's decision to impose a 32% reciprocal tariff has caused significant concern in Indonesia, particularly for workers and trade.
• 😀 The tariff increase is seen not only as a trade disruption but also as a potential blow to millions of workers in Indonesia.
• 😀 Economists and policymakers are viewing Trump's tariff policy as a strategic bargaining tool, rather than a purely economic move.
• 😀 Trump's trade policy is referred to as 'weaponized trade,' aiming to force other countries to negotiate with the U.S. rather than focusing solely on tariffs themselves.
• 😀 The U.S. is using the tariff as leverage due to the high trade deficit, which is seen as weakening American manufacturing and increasing dependency on foreign defense industries.
• 😀 The recent tariff hikes, including China’s retaliation, have prompted fears of a global trade collapse, reminiscent of the Great Depression.
• 😀 The global financial markets have reacted strongly to these developments, causing a downturn in stock prices and currencies, anticipating a negative impact on global trade and GDP.
• 😀 Despite the turmoil, ASEAN countries, including Singapore, have shown a reluctance to engage in retaliatory measures against the U.S.
• 😀 Trump’s tariff strategies might not be entirely aimed at economic results but rather at achieving a better negotiating position in global trade.
• 😀 Indonesia's economy is somewhat insulated from the worst effects of Trump's tariff policies, mainly due to its lower exposure to exports, particularly to the U.S., compared to other ASEAN countries.
• 😀 Although the global economy faces risks of slowdown, Indonesia’s limited dependence on exports (just 25% of its GDP) minimizes its vulnerability, which could allow it to fare better than countries like Singapore and Vietnam.

Q & A

What was the main concern raised regarding President Trump's decision to raise tariffs?

The main concern was that the reciprocal tariffs of 32% imposed by President Trump would not only affect trade but also jeopardize the livelihoods of millions of workers in Indonesia, as the country relies heavily on exports and imports.

How does the economic theory of game theory apply to Trump's tariff decision?

Trump's use of trade tariffs can be viewed as part of a bargaining game, where tariffs serve as a negotiation tool, or 'weaponized trade.' The goal is not the tariffs themselves, but rather to pressure other countries into negotiating deals with the U.S.

What does the concept of 'weaponized trade' mean in the context of the U.S. tariff policy?

'Weaponized trade' refers to using trade policies, such as tariffs, as a strategic tool for political leverage or to force other countries into negotiations. In this case, President Trump uses tariffs as a way to bargain for better trade agreements.

How did China and the European Union respond to the tariff hikes, and what was the potential risk?

China retaliated with its own tariffs, and the European Union was still considering a response. The risk was that a global trade war could lead to a collapse in international trade, causing economic decline and potential global recession, similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

What is the significance of the U.S. trade deficit in the context of the tariff hikes?

The U.S. trade deficit was cited as a reason for the tariff hikes, as the Trump administration believed that the large deficit weakened U.S. manufacturing and increased dependency on foreign production, especially in defense industries.

Why is the retaliation by countries considered dangerous in the broader economic context?

Retaliatory tariffs can escalate trade wars, leading to a reduction in global trade, falling exports, and a downward economic spiral. This can result in lower investment, consumption, and potential recession, as seen during the Great Depression.

What impact did the tariff hikes have on global financial markets?

The tariff hikes triggered a sharp decline in global stock markets, with investors reacting to the anticipated economic downturn. This panic caused stock prices to drop and currencies in various countries to depreciate.

How is Indonesia's economy affected by the U.S. tariff hikes, and why is it relatively less impacted compared to other countries?

Indonesia's economy is relatively less affected because its export dependence on the U.S. is smaller compared to countries like Singapore or Vietnam. Only about 10% of Indonesia's exports go to the U.S., and its export-to-GDP ratio is low, minimizing the direct impact.

What role does investor perception play in Indonesia's economic resilience during this period?

Investor perception is crucial as they tend to seek stable returns. Indonesia, with its smaller export dependency and relatively stable economy, is seen as a safer bet compared to countries more exposed to global trade disruptions.

How did the Indonesian government respond to the economic challenges posed by the tariff hikes?

The Indonesian government responded by implementing good policy measures, such as interventions in the stock market to prevent excessive drops and mitigating the impact on the economy through strategic policy decisions.