Weak Ties: Masa Depan

Summary

In this video, Tika Anindya explores the concept of the future through various perspectives, emphasizing how we interact with it. She discusses how the future can be viewed as uncertain, yet anticipatory, using metaphors like rolling dice, riding a roller coaster, or kayaking down a river. Tika introduces the field of Foresight and Futures Thinking, where the future isn't predicted but anticipated through systematic methods like scenario building. She also highlights key lessons such as the existence of multiple futures, the importance of recognizing signals from the present, and the need for collaborative future-making. The video encourages proactive thinking about long-term challenges and solutions.

Takeaways

• 😀 The future is a concept we all relate to differently, and it's influenced by our past experiences and perceptions.
• 😀 Some see the future like rolling dice, where outcomes depend on luck, while others view it as a roller coaster ride with set paths.
• 😀 For some, the future is like kayaking down a river, where we can choose how far we go and must adapt to environmental challenges.
• 😀 Seneca's quote reminds us that if we don't have a clear destination, no direction will be helpful—emphasizing the importance of foresight.
• 😀 Foresight, or Futures Thinking, is about anticipating the future systematically, even if we can't predict it.
• 😀 Terms like 'black swan' and 'scenario building' have become mainstream in discussing the future, but more complex concepts like 'causal layered analysis' are also part of foresight.
• 😀 One lesson from foresight is that the future doesn't come out of nowhere—there are signals right now that point to where we're heading.
• 😀 Another lesson is that there are multiple possible futures, and it's crucial to consider both positive and negative scenarios, including 'disowned futures.'
• 😀 Asking uncomfortable 'what if?' questions today can help avoid the shock of 'what now?' later on, such as considering Jakarta's sinking issue.
• 😀 Futures thinking encourages us to collaboratively imagine a preferred future, asking specific questions about what kind of life and society we want to build.
• 😀 Foresight is useful for policymakers in gathering public aspirations and shaping clear scenarios of preferred futures, influencing present actions.

Q & A

What is the relationship between humans and the future, according to the transcript?

The transcript suggests that the relationship with the future can vary. Some might view it as uncertain, like rolling dice, others may see it as a set path, like a roller coaster ride, and some may perceive it as a continuous journey, like kayaking down a river, with different challenges along the way.

How does the transcript describe our relationship with the past?

The transcript mentions a quote, 'The past is a foreign country. They do things differently,' suggesting that the past can feel distant and unfamiliar, highlighting the way we view and understand history in relation to our present.

What does the metaphor of a roller coaster represent in relation to the future?

The roller coaster metaphor symbolizes the future as a path that has already been set, evoking feelings of nervousness and fear. It emphasizes the need to prepare mentally for the challenges ahead, knowing that the future may be unpredictable but unavoidable.

What is the kayaking metaphor trying to convey about our approach to the future?

The kayaking metaphor portrays the future as an open-ended journey. It suggests that the course is not predetermined, and individuals must work with the environment, adapting to challenges and continuing to move forward.

What lesson does the quote from Seneca impart about the future?

Seneca's quote, 'if one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable,' teaches the importance of having a clear direction and purpose when approaching the future. Without a clear goal, any effort is unlikely to be effective.

What does 'foresight' or 'Futures Thinking' involve, according to the transcript?

Foresight, or Futures Thinking, is described as the ability to think about and anticipate the future systematically. It involves looking for signals of change in the present and considering multiple future possibilities, even though the future itself cannot be predicted.

What is the difference between predicting the future and anticipating it?

While predicting the future implies certainty and exact outcomes, anticipating the future involves being open to various possibilities and preparing for a range of potential scenarios, allowing for flexibility in response.

What are some key terms associated with futures thinking mentioned in the transcript?

Key terms mentioned include 'black swan,' 'scenario building,' 'causal layered analysis,' 'postnormal futures,' 'Polak game,' and 'backcasting.' These terms refer to tools and frameworks used in the study of the future.

Why does the transcript suggest that we should discuss uncomfortable futures?

The transcript emphasizes the importance of addressing uncomfortable futures, like potential environmental issues or societal challenges, early on. Asking 'what if?' questions now can help prevent larger crises later and lead to better preparedness.

How does the transcript relate foresight to policymaking?

The transcript notes that foresight is valuable for policymakers because it helps collect public aspirations and imagine a preferred future. It highlights that simply stating a desire for a good future isn't enough; we must define the kind of life and society we want to create.