IRAN, ce lo spiega Cecilia Sala

Summary

The conversation explores the political and social situation in Iran, highlighting the country's theocratic system under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the power dynamics between religious and military figures. The discussion delves into the ongoing protests, the economic crisis exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, and Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East. The interview also touches on the complex relationship between Iran, Iraq, and the U.S., as well as the significant role of General Qasem Soleimani, whose assassination by the U.S. heightened tensions. The potential for conflict, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, is also addressed.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Iran is a theocracy, where the highest authority is a religious figure, the Supreme Leader, currently Ali Khamenei.
• 😀 Iran's second most important figure was General Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike ordered by President Trump in January 2020.
• 😀 The President of Iran holds less power than both religious leaders and military figures, especially in the context of Iran’s Islamic Republic, which was established after the 1979 revolution.
• 😀 Iran has faced severe economic crises in recent years, with a 9% drop in GDP, a dramatic 80% drop in exports, and soaring inflation, exacerbated by Trump’s re-imposition of heavy sanctions in 2018.
• 😀 The protests in Iran, particularly in November, were sparked by economic hardship, but also had political and religious motivations, with various factions, including Kurds and Sunnis, participating.
• 😀 Iran is the largest Shiite-majority country, while Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, is the leading Sunni-majority nation. The U.S. and Israel support the Sunni bloc, while Iran is allied with Shiite factions.
• 😀 Despite the majority Shiite population in Iraq, the country has a complex history of power shifts, with Sunni-dominated regimes (like Saddam Hussein’s) backed by the U.S. until Saddam’s downfall in 2003.
• 😀 Iran’s influence in Iraq grew after the U.S. invasion of 2003, with the Shiite-majority population and Iranian-backed militias gaining significant power within the country.
• 😀 General Soleimani was not just a military leader but also a pop culture icon in Iran, akin to a national hero, which makes his assassination by the U.S. even more significant for Iranians.
• 😀 Soleimani was instrumental in Iran’s 'Shiite Crescent' strategy, expanding Iran’s influence across the region, including in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (Houthi), and Gaza (Hamas).
• 😀 The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) of 2015, initiated by President Obama, allowed international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, but Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the agreement led to renewed sanctions and economic hardship for Iran.

Q & A

What is the political system of Iran, and who holds the most power?

Iran operates as a theocracy, where the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, holds the most power. The second most important figure was General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in 2020, followed by the President of Iran, who has less influence compared to the religious leaders and military figures.

How did Iran's political system evolve after the 1979 revolution?

Before 1979, Iran was an imperial monarchy, allied with the United States. Following the revolution, the country became an Islamic Republic led by Shiite Muslims, which marked a shift to an anti-American, anti-imperialist, and at times, communist ideology.

What economic issues is Iran currently facing, and how did they worsen?

Iran is facing a severe economic crisis, with a 9% GDP drop, an 80% reduction in exports, and hyperinflation. This crisis worsened after the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions in 2018 under President Trump, which severely limited Iran's ability to trade, particularly in oil.

What were the main reasons behind the protests in Iran in November?

The protests were largely driven by economic hardship, with people protesting due to rising poverty, job losses, and the effects of inflation. Political dissidents, progressives, and religious minorities, such as Sunnis, also joined the demonstrations.

How do Sunni and Shia Muslims differ, and why is this significant for Iran's geopolitical position?

Sunni and Shia are the two major sects of Islam, and they often find themselves in opposition, especially in the Middle East. Iran, the largest Shia-majority country, has a complex relationship with Sunni-majority countries like Saudi Arabia, leading to regional tensions and alliances based on sectarian divisions.

What role does Iran play in Iraq, and why is it important?

Iran exerts significant influence in Iraq, where the majority of the population is Shia. After the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran's influence in Iraq grew, with Shia militias and political factions aligned with Tehran gaining power and influence over the Iraqi government.

Who was General Qasem Soleimani, and why was his death significant?

General Qasem Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force, Iran's elite military unit. He was a crucial figure in expanding Iran's regional influence through military and political alliances. His assassination by the U.S. in 2020 marked a dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries.

What is the 'Shia Crescent,' and how does it relate to Iran’s influence in the region?

The 'Shia Crescent' refers to the chain of Shia-majority or Shia-aligned territories stretching from Iran to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iran has extended its influence through alliances with groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and various militias, aiming to strengthen its regional dominance.

Why was the nuclear deal of 2015 important, and what changed with the Trump administration?

The 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, was an agreement between Iran and world powers to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, in 2018, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal, re-imposing strict sanctions and exacerbating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

How did Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu contribute to the tensions around Iran’s nuclear program?

In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu presented old intelligence reports suggesting that Iran was continuing its nuclear weapons program, despite the nuclear deal. This reinforced U.S. concerns, but there were no new concrete evidence to confirm Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons after the deal was made.

What are the current prospects for U.S.-Iran relations, and how does Iran view its regional strategy?

While a full-scale war between the U.S. and Iran seems unlikely, tensions remain high. Iran’s strategy is to push U.S. forces out of the region, particularly from Iraq, without engaging in direct warfare. This includes supporting militias and targeting U.S. military bases in the region.