How to Make Big Decisions in Challenging Circumstances | Jonathan Reimer | TED

Summary

In this engaging talk, the speaker reflects on two significant wildfires and the tough decisions made during crisis situations. Drawing from their experience in wildfire management, they explore how complex, high-stakes decisions are often guided not just by data, but by intuition. The speaker challenges conventional decision-making approaches, arguing that more information doesn’t always lead to better outcomes. Instead, they suggest using a 'size-up' approach, where decision-makers first gather essential information before trusting their instincts. Through powerful anecdotes and psychological insights, the speaker demonstrates how intuition and rational thinking can work together to improve decision-making under pressure.

Takeaways

• 😀 A firefighter’s role is to make high-stakes decisions quickly and effectively, often without all the information they would like.
• 😀 In 2016, the speaker was involved in managing the Fort McMurray wildfire, which became the most destructive wildfire in Canadian history. This fire spread rapidly, and evacuation efforts were crucial for saving lives.
• 😀 The following year, the speaker responded to a fire near the town of Waterton, where timely evacuations and proactive firefighting strategies helped prevent damage, even though the fire's behavior was unpredictable.
• 😀 A key difference between the two wildfires was the decision-making process. The firefighters in Waterton made bold, decisive choices that minimized harm, while the response in Fort McMurray faced more challenges due to the unexpected speed and intensity of the fire.
• 😀 Effective decision-making, especially in complex and high-pressure situations, involves combining both rational thinking and intuition. The challenge is knowing when to rely on each approach.
• 😀 More information doesn't always lead to better decision-making. In fact, it can sometimes impair performance, as it can overwhelm decision-makers and distract them from critical factors.
• 😀 Intuition plays a crucial role in decision-making, especially for experts. Experienced firefighters often rely on their intuitive sense of fire behavior, honed through years of pattern recognition, to make quick, accurate decisions.
• 😀 However, intuition can also be misleading. Our gut feelings can misinterpret data or cause us to see patterns that aren't there, especially in statistical contexts.
• 😀 The process of making effective decisions can be improved by starting with a 'size-up'—an initial assessment to gather the critical facts and context before jumping into a decision.
• 😀 We often make intuitive decisions first and later look for evidence to confirm them, but this can lead to poor outcomes. It's better to start by assessing the situation and then consulting our intuition, not the other way around.
• 😀 The example of the bat-and-ball question demonstrates how intuitive thinking can mislead us, even when we know the correct answer is available. We often cling to our first impression, making it harder to accept the correct solution.
• 😀 Historical lessons from firefighting, such as the story of Wag Dodge and his intuitive decision during the 1949 Montana wildfire, show the importance of sometimes defying conventional wisdom or gut reactions when faced with life-threatening decisions.

Q & A

What was the key difference between the Fort McMurray fire and the Waterton fire?

The key difference was a single, bold decision made by firefighters in Waterton to evacuate the community ahead of the fire's unexpected behavior, ensuring that no homes were lost and there were no injuries. In contrast, the Fort McMurray fire was much more destructive, with homes decimated and the evacuation orders arriving after the fires had already begun to spread.

How does the speaker describe the role of intuition in making big decisions?

The speaker highlights that intuition plays a critical role in decision-making, especially in high-pressure situations. Intuition is fast, effortless, and often unconscious, allowing people to make decisions quickly based on patterns they've internalized over time. However, it can also be flawed, especially when it conflicts with statistical reasoning.

What is the problem with adding more information to complex decision-making, as mentioned in the script?

The speaker points out that adding more information can actually decrease performance in complex decision-making. This happens because decision-makers end up spending more time evaluating all the data, which distracts them from more important aspects of the situation. In some cases, more information increases uncertainty rather than reducing it.

What does the speaker mean by 'size-up' in decision-making?

A 'size-up' refers to the process of systematically gathering and assessing critical information before making a decision. In the context of firefighting, this means evaluating what's burning, the fire behavior, and what could be threatened. The speaker suggests applying this approach to any decision-making scenario, ensuring that the most important information is gathered before making a choice.

How does the speaker explain the difficulty people face in accepting the correct answer when it's provided?

The speaker illustrates this with a common math problem, showing how people often fall in love with their own intuitive solutions. Even when the correct answer is presented to them, they struggle to accept it. This reflects a cognitive bias where people are overly attached to their initial thoughts or intuitions.

What is the relationship between intuition and rational thinking in complex decision-making?

The speaker argues that both intuition and rational thinking have their own strengths and weaknesses. Intuition is fast and useful for recognizing patterns, but it can be easily fooled and doesn't handle statistical reasoning well. Rational thinking, on the other hand, is slower and more deliberate, and can help to evaluate risks and uncertainties. The challenge is to balance both approaches in making decisions.

Why does the speaker mention the 1949 wildfire and Wag Dodge's decision?

The speaker uses the story of Wag Dodge's decision during the 1949 wildfire to illustrate how intuition can sometimes lead to dangerous outcomes. Dodge made an unintuitive choice to light a fire to protect his crew, but his decision was not accepted by others who were driven by their own intuitive fear to escape. This highlights how intuition can sometimes conflict with rational decision-making, especially in life-threatening situations.

How does the speaker suggest we handle decision-making in challenging situations?

The speaker suggests that in challenging decision-making situations, we should start by gathering reliable information—doing a 'size-up'—before relying on our intuition. Instead of letting our gut reaction guide the decision-making process, we should first assess the situation carefully and then use our intuition to help make a more informed decision.

What is the significance of the $5/$110 ball-and-bat problem in the script?

The ball-and-bat problem is used to demonstrate how our intuitive judgments can often lead us astray. The question is designed to provoke an immediate, intuitive response that most people mistakenly believe is correct, but closer reflection reveals the correct answer. This example illustrates how intuition can sometimes cause us to overlook logical solutions.

What broader lesson does the speaker want the audience to take away from the script?

The broader lesson is that making big decisions under uncertainty requires a balance of both intuition and rational analysis. While intuition can be a valuable tool, it is crucial to first gather the right information before allowing it to guide decision-making. In high-stakes situations, taking a moment to assess the situation before acting can lead to better outcomes.