Sumatera Utara Memilih: Bobby Nasution vs Edy Rahmayadi | Kabar Pilkada tvOne

Summary

The transcript discusses the political race in North Sumatra, focusing on the competition between incumbent governor Edy Rahmayadi and Medan mayor Bobby Nasution. Key themes include the impact of public perception, with Bobby's higher approval ratings giving him an edge, and the importance of political endorsements, especially from President Jokowi. The discussion also touches on the influence of political machines and how regional dynamics, such as tolerance for vote-buying, affect the election. In comparison to other regions like Central Java, the personal appeal of candidates appears to play a more significant role in North Sumatra's election outcome.

Takeaways

• 😀 The political landscape in North Sumatra is influenced by the rivalry between Bobi, the Mayor of Medan, and Edi Rahmayadi, the incumbent Governor. Bobi enjoys higher approval ratings compared to Edi.
• 😀 Surveys indicate that Bobi has a significant advantage in the upcoming election, with support potentially exceeding 60%, due to the more positive perception of him as Mayor of Medan.
• 😀 The 'rational choice' theory suggests that voters are more likely to choose candidates with higher approval ratings, especially when those candidates are incumbents with strong support.
• 😀 Bobi's strong political backing, especially from his influential father-in-law, President Jokowi, strengthens his political machine in North Sumatra, particularly in Batak Toba regions.
• 😀 The alliance between Bobi and political party Gerindra, alongside his strong familial support, positions him against Edi Rahmayadi, whose approval as Governor has been lukewarm.
• 😀 Edi Rahmayadi's campaign is hindered by negative perceptions of his performance as Governor, making it harder for him to compete effectively.
• 😀 Political machine strength varies by region, and in North Sumatra, Bobi's personal popularity and the Jokowi effect are crucial for his electoral success.
• 😀 The sum of local factors, including the political machinery of the ruling parties and the influence of powerful local figures, plays a significant role in North Sumatra's elections.
• 😀 The issue of money politics is a challenge in North Sumatra, where political favors and financial incentives have been shown to influence a significant portion of voters.
• 😀 The role of party machinery is more pronounced in areas like Central Java, where party strength and not just individual popularity determine the electoral outcome. This contrasts with North Sumatra, where personal figures like Bobi play a more prominent role.

Q & A

Why is Bobi perceived more favorably than Edi Rahmayadi in Sumatera Utara?

Bobi, as the mayor of Medan, has a more positive public perception compared to Edi Rahmayadi, the incumbent governor. This perception is reflected in survey data, which show Bobi with approval ratings above 60%, while Edi's approval as governor is lower.

What factors contribute to Bobi's strong political support in Sumatera Utara?

Bobi benefits from the backing of multiple political forces outside of the PDIP, including the support of Jokowi's family, particularly in the Toba region. Additionally, his personal popularity as the mayor of Medan and his strong political machine help him maintain a solid support base.

How does the concept of 'rational choice' explain the higher likelihood of Bobi winning?

The 'rational choice' theory suggests that voters tend to support candidates who are perceived positively. Since Bobi has a positive approval rating as mayor, it aligns with the idea that voters are more likely to choose him, while the negative perception of Edi Rahmayadi makes him less appealing.

How does the political machine affect Bobi and Edi Rahmayadi's chances in the election?

Bobi has a stronger political machine, with support from various political parties and Jokowi’s family, while Edi Rahmayadi’s machine is limited, mostly tied to the PDIP. This disparity in political support gives Bobi a significant advantage.

What role does the 'Jokowi effect' play in Bobi's candidacy?

The 'Jokowi effect' significantly boosts Bobi's chances, especially in regions where Jokowi's influence is strong, such as the Batak Toba community. This support gives Bobi an edge, even without formal endorsements from Jokowi during Prabowo’s presidency.

Why is the issue of political money important in Sumatera Utara?

In Sumatera Utara, there is a high tolerance for political money, with about 70% of the electorate accepting or participating in such practices. This factor can influence voter behavior, particularly in terms of party strategy and candidate support.

How does the political landscape in Sumatera Utara differ from that in Jawa Tengah?

While Sumatera Utara is influenced by individual candidates' popularity and political machines outside of PDIP, Jawa Tengah is more reliant on the strength of party machines, particularly PDIP. However, in Jawa Tengah, the dominance of the party machine does not guarantee victory without appealing to broader voter bases.

What is the significance of Jokowi's influence in Jawa Tengah's electoral landscape?

Jokowi's influence remains strong in Jawa Tengah, helping candidates affiliated with him maintain electoral appeal. However, despite PDIP’s strong base, the challenge lies in appealing to a broader electorate beyond the traditional PDIP supporters, especially to NU-affiliated voters.

How does the presence of NU-affiliated candidates affect Jawa Tengah's Pilkada?

The presence of NU-affiliated candidates, such as those with connections to the santri community, is crucial for broadening support in Jawa Tengah. If PDIP fails to represent this segment, it could limit the party's chances of securing a broader voter base and winning the election.

Why is the personal quality of candidates so important in Pilkada elections?

In Pilkada elections, personal qualities and public perception are often more significant than party affiliation. Voters tend to focus on the personality, competence, and public image of the candidates, which can outweigh party loyalty and machine politics.