中国青年失业率为什么如此之高？｜失业率｜青年失业率｜经济增速｜统计口径｜就业困局｜王局拍案20230718

Summary

The script discusses China's economic data, questioning its reliability and manipulation by the National Bureau of Statistics. It delves into the high youth unemployment rate, suggesting statistical underestimation and distortion due to exclusion of rural areas, low work-hour thresholds for employment, and university pressures to inflate job placement rates. The speaker criticizes the economy's reliance on domestic demand, the impact of diplomatic relations on trade, and the challenges faced by university graduates seeking white-collar jobs amidst a shrinking job market.

Takeaways

• 📊 The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported 'stable and improving' economic performance in the first half of the year, but the speaker suggests this term may be used to mask underlying issues.
• 🤔 The speaker questions the objectivity of China's statistical data, implying that it might be manipulated for public perception and propaganda purposes.
• 🎨 The term 'Chief Makeup Artist' is used metaphorically to describe the role of the National Bureau of Statistics, hinting at the embellishment of economic data.
• 📚 The recommendation of the book 'How to Lie with Statistics' suggests that statistical methods can be used to present data in misleading ways.
• 📉 The script points out a decline in China's GDP growth rate over the past five years, contradicting the 'stable and improving' narrative.
• 🔍 The speaker criticizes the lack of longitudinal data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, preventing the public from seeing the full economic picture.
• 📈 The year-on-year GDP growth of 6.5% in the second quarter is highlighted as potentially misleading due to the low growth base of the previous year.
• 😕 The high youth unemployment rate of 21.3% is presented as a significant issue, contrasting with the overall unemployment rate of 5.3%.
• 👥 The method of calculating China's unemployment rate is criticized for excluding rural areas and using a low threshold for what constitutes employment.
• 🎓 The speaker discusses the pressure on university graduates to find white-collar jobs, leading to a structural disparity in the job market.
• 🏢 The script identifies key industries like internet, real estate, and education as facing challenges, impacting their ability to absorb new graduates.

Q & A

What was the reported GDP growth rate for the first half of the year according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

The reported GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.5%.

What is the term used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China to describe the economic performance in every industry and aspect?

The term used is 'stable and improving'.

What was Yao Jingyuan's position when interviewed by the speaker?

Yao Jingyuan was the Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics at the time of the interview.

What suspicions did the speaker have about the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics?

The speaker suspected that there might be two sets of data: one for the general public and another for Party and national leaders, due to the public's limited ability to comprehend real information.

How does the speaker describe the statistical data manipulation by the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

The manipulation has two aspects: embellishing some data that is not true, and modifying statistical methodology and sample representation.

What book was recommended by the speaker to understand the secrets behind statistical data?

The book recommended is 'How to Lie with Statistics'.

What is the reported youth unemployment rate as of the end of June according to the latest data?

The reported youth unemployment rate is 21.3%.

How does the speaker describe the calculation of China's unemployment rate?

The calculation is based on a sample of 240,000 households nationwide, analyzing the employment rates of different age groups within these households.

What is the issue with the unemployment rate calculation according to the speaker?

The issue is that it only accounts for urban areas and excludes rural areas, treating migrant workers as if they are always employed when they return to rural areas, which is not accurate.

What is the criterion for employment according to China's definition?

According to China's definition, working just one hour in a week does not count as unemployment.

Why does the speaker believe that the actual unemployment rate among Chinese university students is higher than reported?

The speaker believes this is due to data falsification by universities to meet employment rate targets set by local labor departments, which can lead to penalties for the universities if not met.

What are the three industries that accommodate the largest number of employed individuals in China?

The three industries are the internet, real estate, and education and training industry.

What challenges have the three key industries faced in recent years according to the script?

The challenges include significant damage to the internet industry with fines and market reshuffling, a decline in housing prices and savings-to-debt ratio in the real estate market, and continuous adjustments and rectification measures in the education and training industry.

What is the speaker's view on the most crucial reason for the transformation in China's foreign trade and exports?

The speaker believes that the most crucial reason is China making enemies in the diplomatic arena, leading to a reduction in the proportion of Chinese product exports as a risk mitigation measure by the international community.

What is the implication of China no longer being the largest importer of goods from the US according to the script?

The implication is that there is a worsening trade environment for China, which is affecting its economic development and ultimately the unemployment rate among Chinese youth.

What advice does the speaker give to those who have a job?

The speaker advises those who have a job to cherish it and not to switch jobs easily, as the job market is challenging and it can leave one without even a meal to eat.