Negara Maju Resesi, Indonesia Bagaimana
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the recent economic recessions in developed countries such as Japan, the UK, and Germany, and their potential impact on Indonesia. Despite these global challenges, Indonesia's economy has shown resilience with a consistent GDP growth of around 5%. The script highlights the country's controlled inflation rate, which is among the lowest globally, and the positive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The speaker, Luna, shares insights from the Mandiri Investment Forum, where experts discussed Indonesia's economic outlook, emphasizing the country's stable growth, fiscal and monetary policies, and the importance of managing inflation. The forum also touched on global economic challenges, the potential for interest rate adjustments, and the optimistic view of Indonesia's continued positive economic trajectory. The summary underscores the importance of financial literacy and staying informed about economic developments to navigate business and investment opportunities effectively.
Takeaways
- 🌐 Economic Recession: Japan, the UK, and Germany have officially entered an economic recession, causing concern and anxiety globally.
- 📉 GDP Decline: The recession is marked by a decline in economic activity and output over two consecutive quarters, as indicated by negative or zero GDP growth.
- 🇯🇵 Japan's Struggles: Japan's economy has been facing a productivity crisis due to demographic imbalances, affecting key industries like automotive and electronics.
- 🇩🇪 Germany's Supply Chain Issues: Germany's recession is attributed to supply chain crises, particularly in the energy sector, following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased production costs.
- 🇬🇧 UK's High Inflation: The UK's recession has been triggered by extremely high inflation rates, a sharp decline in the property industry, and reduced productivity due to a shrinking workforce.
- 📈 Indonesia's Economic Growth: Despite global economic challenges, Indonesia's economy has maintained a consistent growth of around 5% per year.
- 🛑 Inflation Control: Indonesia has managed to control inflation, with rates ranging between 2.5% to 3% in the last six months.
- 📊 Positive Trade Balance: Indonesia's trade balance has returned to a positive trend after the initial disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
- 🇮🇩 Unemployment and Workforce Absorption: The unemployment rate in Indonesia spiked during the pandemic but has since shown signs of recovery, returning to pre-pandemic levels.
- 🛍️ Consumption Challenge: A significant challenge for Indonesia's economy is the decline in consumer spending, affecting businesses and sales.
- 💼 Investment Forum Insights: The Mandiri Investment Forum, one of Indonesia's largest financial events, provided insights into the country's economic outlook, with key speakers emphasizing Indonesia's stable GDP growth and controlled inflation rates.
- 🏦 Bank Indonesia's Monetary Policy: Bank Indonesia is expected to lower interest rates after the second semester of 2024, depending on the inflation trends and the US's monetary policy direction.
- 📉 US Inflation and Interest Rates: In the US, inflation has started to decline but remains above the target rate, which may influence the strength of the dollar and global economic conditions.
Q & A
What is the definition of an economic recession?
-An economic recession is a condition where a country experiences a decline in economic activity and output over two consecutive quarters, often measured by the GDP, which represents the level of productivity in a nation.
Why did Japan, the UK, and Germany experience an economic recession?
-Each country has different factors leading to their recession. Japan has been dealing with a productivity crisis due to demographic imbalances, affecting its automotive and electronics industries. Germany's recession was triggered by a supply chain crisis, particularly in the energy sector, following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which increased the cost of raw materials. The UK's recession was driven by high inflation rates, a sharp decline in the property industry, and a drop in productivity due to a shrinking workforce.
What is the current state of Indonesia's economy?
-Indonesia's economy has been consistently growing at around 5% per year. The country has managed to control inflation between 2.5% to 3% over the last six months and has returned to a positive trade balance after the COVID-19 pandemic.
What challenges does Indonesia's economy face despite its positive growth?
-Indonesia faces significant challenges including a decrease in consumer spending, which has been impacted by various factors such as changes in weather affecting agricultural activities, increasing prices of raw materials, and rising costs of utilities like electricity and fuel.
What was discussed at the Mandiri Investment Forum?
-The Mandiri Investment Forum is one of the largest financial events in Indonesia, where experts in economy and finance discuss the future of the economic climate, business, and investment, particularly in Indonesia. The forum included presentations from key figures such as the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Bank of Indonesia.
What is the outlook for Indonesia's economy in the near future?
-Indonesia is expected to continue its positive growth trend with an estimated economic growth of 5%, supported by projections from international financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, OECD, and Bloomberg.
How does the government of Indonesia address inflation?
-The government addresses inflation through a combination of fiscal and monetary policies. Monetary policy is oriented towards increasing interest rates to curb inflation, while fiscal policy provides incentives to control excessive price increases.
What is the current status of unemployment and labor force absorption in Indonesia?
-The unemployment rate in Indonesia had increased sharply during the pandemic but has since shown signs of recovery and returned to pre-pandemic levels.
What are the potential adjustments in interest rates that could affect the business climate in Indonesia?
-The Bank of Indonesia is watching for a gradual decline in inflation as a signal for potential interest rate cuts. It is anticipated that interest rates may decrease after the second half of 2024, once the US adjusts its monetary policy and the dollar's value is predicted to decrease.
What is the impact of the US monetary policy on the global economy and Indonesia?
-The US monetary policy direction has a significant impact on the global economy. As the US changes its policy, the value of the dollar is expected to decrease, which could lead to a decline in inflation and potentially allow for a faster economic recovery in Indonesia.
How does the Indonesian government's fiscal policy play a role in managing inflation?
-The Indonesian government's fiscal policy plays an active role in managing inflation by providing structural, logistical, and supply-side support, as well as fiscal incentives to local governments to help control excessive price increases.
What are the key takeaways from the Mandiri Investment Forum for the audience interested in financial literacy?
-The Mandiri Investment Forum offers insights into the overall recovery of the Indonesian economy, the importance of clean energy transformation, the role of AI in business and society, and the potential for interest rate adjustments that could positively affect the business climate and provide easier access to business funding.
Outlines
🌐 Economic Recession in Developed Countries
The first paragraph discusses the emergence of economic recessions in several developed countries, including Japan, the UK, and Germany. It highlights the impact of these recessions on global sentiment and raises concerns about the potential for a similar downturn in Indonesia. The speaker, Luna, introduces the topic of economic recession, explains its definition, and outlines the indicators used to identify it, such as negative or zero GDP growth over two consecutive quarters. The causes of the recession in each of the mentioned countries are attributed to different factors, including productivity crisis in Japan due to demographic imbalances, supply chain issues in Germany post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and high inflation rates in the UK affecting industrial output and productivity. The paragraph ends with a transition to discussing the state of Indonesia's economy.
📈 Indonesia's Economic Stability Amidst Global Challenges
The second paragraph provides an overview of Indonesia's economic performance and its stability despite global challenges. It mentions that Indonesia has maintained a positive economic growth trend with a consistent GDP growth of around 5% per year. The speaker discusses the controlled inflation rate, the positive trade balance, and the recovery of the unemployment rate and labor force absorption to pre-pandemic levels. Challenges such as the decline in consumer spending due to various factors, including crop failures, rising raw material prices, and increased costs of essentials like electricity and fuel, are also highlighted. The paragraph concludes with an invitation for viewers to share their personal experiences with the national economic condition over the past year and a teaser for future economic projections and insights from the Mandiri Investment Forum.
💼 Outlook and Policy Implications from Mandiri Investment Forum
The third paragraph summarizes key insights from the Mandiri Investment Forum, which is one of the largest financial events in Indonesia. It covers the presentations and discussions involving prominent national figures, including the Minister of Finance and the Governor of the Bank of Indonesia. The Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, is quoted on Indonesia's successful maintenance of a positive economic trend despite global economic challenges, with a stable GDP growth of 5%. The country's controlled inflation rate is attributed to a combination of fiscal and monetary policies. The forum also touched on the potential for interest rate adjustments and their impact on business and investment climate in Indonesia. The speaker expresses anticipation for a decrease in interest rates to stimulate the economy and improve access to investment capital. The paragraph ends with a hopeful note on the potential for economic advancement in Indonesia with easier access to business funding.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Recession
💡Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
💡Inflation
💡Unemployment Rate
💡Consumer Spending
💡
💡Energy Supply Chain Crisis
💡Productivity
💡Bank Mandiri Investment Forum
💡Monetary Policy
💡Fiscal Policy
💡Interest Rates
Highlights
Several advanced countries including Japan, UK, and Germany have officially entered a recessionary phase in the first quarter of 2024.
The news has caused concern and anxiety among many parties and in society, considering the economic size of these countries.
Economic recession is a condition where a country experiences a decline in economic activity and output over two consecutive quarters.
GDP is an indicator representing the level of productivity in a country and is used to measure economic activity.
The causes of recession in Japan, UK, and Germany are different due to each country's unique economic weaknesses and resilience.
Japan has been experiencing a productivity crisis due to demographic imbalances, affecting its competitive industries like automotive and electronics.
Germany's recession is caused by supply chain issues, especially in the energy sector, following the Russia-Ukraine conflict which led to rising raw material prices.
The UK's recession is triggered by high inflation, a sharp decline in the real estate industry, and a drop in productivity due to a shrinking workforce.
Indonesia's national GDP growth has been consistent at around 5% per year, which is quite good compared to many advanced countries.
Indonesia's inflation rate has started to be controlled, especially in the last 6 months within the range of 2.5% to 3%.
Indonesia's trade balance has returned to a positive trend after being affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
The unemployment rate in Indonesia has recovered and returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Despite the good economic conditions, Indonesia still faces challenges such as declining consumer spending and rising raw material prices.
At the Mandiri Investment Forum, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani stated that Indonesia has managed to maintain a positive economic trend with a stable 5% GDP growth despite global economic challenges.
Indonesia has been able to keep inflation under control, one of the lowest in the world, through a combination of fiscal and monetary policies.
The government is actively addressing inflation through structural, logistical, and supply-side measures, in addition to monetary policy.
Indonesia is expected to continue its positive economic growth trend with a 5% growth rate, supported by estimates from international financial institutions.
Bank Indonesia expects interest rates to start declining in the second half of 2024 as inflation gradually comes down further.
The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the second quarter of 2024 before declining when the US changes its monetary policy direction.
Overall, the Indonesian economy has recovered relatively well compared to other countries, but challenges remain in areas such as consumer spending and clean energy transformation.
Transcripts
[Musik]
Hai semua ketemu lagi sama aku Luna
Selamat datang di channel ngomongin uang
di Kuartal pertama tahun 2024 ini muncul
banyak berita yang ngagetin banget dari
beberapa negara maju yang pertama itu
dari negara Jepang yang secara resmi
nyatain kalau negaranya udah masuk ke
fase Resesi ekonomi cuma selang beberapa
minggu kemudian Inggris juga nyatain
secara resmi negaranya udah masuk ke
dalam kondisi Resesi ekonomi dan
terakhir kabarnya negara Jerman juga
diprediksi nih secara perhitungan lagi
ngalamin fase Resesi ekonomi pemberitaan
yang muncul dari beberapa negara maju
ini Tentu aja ngagetin banyak pihak dan
nimbulin banyak kecemasan di masyarakat
kalau negara sebesar Jepang Inggris dan
Jerman aja ekonominya ngalamin Resesi
Terus gimana dong nasib kita di
Indonesia apa ekonomi Indonesia juga
bakal memburuk gimana sih sebenarnya
kondisi ekonomi negara kita sebetulnya
Resesi ekonomi itu apaan sih Terus apa
aja hal yang perlu kita siapin buat bisa
ngadepin tantangan ini Oke di video kali
ini aku bakal jelasin dikit tentang Apa
itu Resesi ekonomi Kenapa beberapa
negara maju bisa sampai Resesi dan juga
ngasih gambaran gitu ya tentang gimana
sih kondisi ekonomi Indonesia di mana
kebetulan banget tim ngumum beberapa
waktu lalu diundang ke salah satu acara
ekonomi terbesar di di Indonesia yaitu
Mandiri investment forum di acara ini
Bank Mandiri itu mempertemukan
pakar-pakar ekonomi dan keuangan terbaik
di Indonesia dan juga di dunia buat
ngulas ngebahas dan juga ngasih gambaran
ke depan tentang iklim Ekonomi keuangan
dunia usaha dan juga investasi khususnya
di Indonesia dan di video kali ini aku
bakal ngupas nih beberapa rangkuman
penting yang kita dapatin di acara
keuangan terbesar Indonesia ini Oke
Sebelum terlalu jauh aku ma mulai dulu
dengan ngejelasin Apa itu Resesi ekonomi
dan bakal jadi kayak gimana sih negara
yang ngalami Resesi itu pada dasarnya
Resesi ekonomi adalah sebuah kondisi
ketika sebuah negara ngalami penurunan
aktivitas dan output ekonomi selama dua
Kuartal berturut-turut di mana aktivitas
ekonomi ini sering kali dinyatain dalam
indikator GDP yang merupakan
representasi dari tingkat produktivitas
ekonomi di sebuah negara nah yang perlu
digaris bawahin satu S sesi ini adalah
nilai rapor ekonomi sebuah negara dalam
6 bulan terakhir dan bukan merupakan
prediksi ekonomi di masa mendatang jadi
Resesi ini sebetulnya hanya sebuah
pernyataan dari sebuah kondisi yang
sudah berjalan dan udah dialamin
masyarakat selama seenggnya 6 bulan
terakhir Sekarang kita coba dalamin
bareng-bareng ya apa sih yang bikin
beberapa negara maju ini ngalamin Resesi
ekonomi Yuk kita lihat grafik GDP negara
Jepang Inggris dan Jerman di sini kita
bisa lihat bahwa dua Kuartal terakhir
ketika negara negara ini ngalamin
pertumbuhan GDP yang negatif atau nol
jadi bisa dibilang output produksi
ketiga negara ini tuh ngalamin penurunan
kalauisnya dibandingin sama tahun
sebelumnya nah sebetulnya penyebab
Resesi di tiga negara ini faktornya
beda-beda di mana masing-masing ekonomi
ketiga negara ini punya Sisi kelemahan
dan ketahanan ekonomi yang beda juga
gitu misalnya di negara Jepang Ya emang
udah lama ngalamin krisis produktivitas
gara-gara demografi masyarakatnya enggak
seimbang hal ini akhirnya berpengaruh k
kekalahan persaingan usaha dari industri
otomotif sampai elektronik yang selama
ini Nopang ekonomi negara Jepang
sementara di Jerman reses ini terjadi
karena krisis rantai pasokan khususnya
di industri hulu energi sejak konflik
Rusia Ukraina 2 tahun lalu jadi semua
harga bahan baku di Jerman naik dan
bikin output produksinya kalah saing
soalnya ongkos produksinya jadi lebih
mahal terus di Inggris nih resesinya
dipicu sama tingkat inflasi yang terlalu
tinggi industri propertinya merosot
tajam sampai penurunan produktivitas
akibat debl masyarakatnya yang menurun
pertanyaannya sekarang terus apa kabar
sama Indonesia yuk kita lihat langsung
datanya dari data GDP nasional kita bisa
lihat nih pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
secara nasional bisa dibilang konsisten
bertumbuh sekitar 5% per tahun punya
pertumbuhan GDP kayak gini setelah
pandemi covid tuh bisa dibilang udah
bagus banget apalagi kalau kita
bandingin sama banyak negara maju dan
negara-negara tetangga kita dari data
inflasi Kita juga bisa lihat tingkat
inflasi kita mulai terkontrol
khususnya dalam 6 bulan terakhir di 2,5
sampai 3% terus dari neraca perdagangan
Kita juga bisa ngelihat Indonesia udah
balik ya ke tren positif setelah
sebelumnya sempat terseok-seok pas
pandemi di tahun 2020 Lalu ada juga
angka pengangguran dan daya serap tenaga
kerja tingkat pengaguran masyarakat
Emang sempat naik tajam banget pas
pandemi Tapi udah nunjukin pemulihan dan
sekarang udah balik lagi ke posisi pas
sebelum terjadi pandemi di tahun 2019
lalu oke walaupun kondisi ekonomi
Indonesia tuh udah nunjukin yang baik
tapi sebenarnya masih ada beberapa
tantangan besar yang perlu kita garis
bawahin yang pertama yang pasti yang
paling berasa banget itu adalah
penurunan tingkat konsumsi masyarakat
buat kamu yang mungkin punya toko atau
usaha gitu ya mungkin banyak yang
ngasain ya turunnya angka penjualan yang
cukup signifikan menurunnya angka
belanja masyarakat ini dipicu sama
berbagai hal misalnya tuh perubahan
cuaca yang bikin kegiatan pertanian jadi
terhambat dan akhirnya berdampak sama
naiknya harga bahan-bahan pokok ditambah
lagi sama kenaikan harga bahan baku hulu
Kayak listrik dan BBM yang akhirnya
bikin inflasi ikutan tinggi dan daya
beli
menurun kalau menurut kamu sendiri nih
gimana sih kondisi ekonomi nasional yang
kamu rasain dalam setahun terakhir coba
share di kolom komentar ya oke tadi kan
aku udah share beberapa data nasional
yang mencerminkan kondisi ekonomi dalam
beberapa tahun terakhir tapi gimana ya
proyeksi ekonomi kita dalam beberapa
waktu
mendatang nah kebetulan banget tim ngomu
tuh diundang sama Bank Mandiri ke sebuah
acara spesial itu Mandiri investment
forum di tanggal 4 sampai 8 Maret lalu
acara ini itu adalah salah satu acara
keuangan terbesar di Indonesia yang
dedain tiap tahun di mana tokoh-tokoh
kunci nasional kayak Menteri Keuangan
Gubernur Bank Indonesia para direksi dan
petinggi Bank Mandiri para pakar ekonomi
investor dan para pebisnis besar juga
berdatangan dan di acara ini kita
berkesempatan buat nyaksiin langsung
pemaparan dari beberapa toko kunci
terkait proyeki ekonomi dan investasi ke
depannya aku coba rangkumin beberapa ya
dari iu Sri Mulyani selaku Menteri
Keuangan beliau tuh maparin kalau
ditengah banyaknya tantangan ekonomi
global dalam 2 tahun terakhir Indonesia
udah berhasil ya pertahanin tren positif
ekonomi nasional dengan GDP growth yang
stabil di angka
5%. We also see that the recovery of the
Indonesia economy continue eh gaining
the momentum This is despite the fact
that in the past 24 months in which the
world has been bettered by the high
inflation and a quite steep
significantly high interest rate in a
very short time and that's explain quite
a lot that many developing emerging
country are facing with quite Vulnerable
situation this kind of environment is
not easy for many emerging and
developing countries because the cost of
fund becoming so expensive and the
capital is becoming very tight
um under of ccumstances
Indonesia able to continue maintain the
5% growth
consistently beliau Tu juga nyampein
kalau Indonesia bisa tetap pertahanin
tingkat inflasinya di tingkat yang wajar
bahkan termasuk salah satu yang paling
rendah di dunia di mana tingkat inflasi
yang terkendali ini merupakan kombinasi
dari kebijakan fiskal dan juga kebijak
moneter di mana kebijakan moneter
berorientasi sama peningkatan suku
bungga buat meredam inflasi sementara
kebijakan fiskal dengan ngasih insentif
fiskal sampai ke tingkat daerah buat
bisa nekan potensi kenaikan harga yang
berlebihan inflation remain muted for
Indonesia and we are continue among the
lowest range of the
inflation and we still continue have to
be vigilant with the Food inflation but
relatively this is not just monary AC
but most of The government THR their
support on addressing the inflation in
Indonesia fiscal Policy in fact playing
a very active role in addressing the
issue of inflation Because it is
actually in the form of structural
logistical and supply side and that's
why we are actually working very hard
through many government including local
government through the coordination and
providing the fiscal incentive for the
local
to for
centralcre steep interest rate and that
combination Prov us with
rel
l buat estimasi ekonomi ke depan ibuly
juga nyamp kalau Indonesia diperkirain
bisa tetap nerusin tren posi dengan
tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi
5% ini didukung sama estimasi dari pihak
lain termasuk empat lembaga keuangan
dunia yaitu IMF for bank OECD dan
Bloomberg Indonesia growth will expected
to sustain in this 2023 and
2024 we are not Certainly
Under underestimating the challenge but
we also quite optimistic that this
m terus
dariu Indonesia beliau nyampein kalau
Indonesia optimis pertumbuhan ekonomi
positif nasional bakalan terus berlanjut
tapi tetap waspada juga sama ketidak
pasastian ekonomi global terus khusus
buat kebijakan suku bunga nih Bank
Indonesia ngelihat kalau inflasi
sudahudah mulai turun secara bertahap di
sisi lain di Amerika inflasinya juga
udah mulai turun tapi masih tetap ada di
atas target Bank Sentral makanya suku
bunga diperkirain baru bakal turun
setelah semester kedua tahun 2024
sementara itu diperkirain ular Amerika
bakal masih tetap kuat juga seenggaknya
sampai semester kedua tahun ini nanti
setelah semester kedua tahun ini ketika
Amerika ngubah kebajakan moneternya
nilai tuk dool diprediksi bakalan ikut
menurun inflation continue coming down
but gradually we are still seeing
inflation still higher than targeted in
the US about 3% now mov coming down to
about 2.6 but still above 3%
that's why number three we expect F only
coming down And The Second semester we
expect will be declining about 75 basis
point in the second semester We still
looking over the exact timing but mostly
in the second
semester that's why dollar still remain
strong for
the
doll on the second semester as the US
changing their Policy
Direction dari pemaparan ini sejujurnya
aku nungguin banget ya Kapan sih suku
bunga bisa mulai turun supaya kondisi
ekonomi bisa kembali dipercepat karena
dengan turunnya suku bunga bakal ada ya
banyak bisnis yang mulai bergairah
soalnya penyaluran modul saja jadi jauh
lebih mudah diakses sama Para investor
Nah itu tadi beberapa rangkuman menarik
dari acara Mandiri investment forum dari
acara ini kita bisa ngelihat kalau
secara umum ekonomi Indonesia berhasil
pulih dengan relatif baik apalagi kalau
bisa dibandingin sama negara lain tapi
yang masih Jadi PR adalah tingkat
konsumsi masyarakat terus transformasi
energi bersih terbarukan peran Ai dalam
dunia bisnis dan masyarakat dan juga
adanya potensi penyesuaian suku bunga
yang Semoga bisa jadi kabar buat iklim
bisnis dan usaha supaya ekonomi
Indonesia bisa makin melaju dengan akses
yang lebih ringan terhadap pendanaan
modal usaha semoga Inside dari rangkaian
acara Mandiri investment forum ini bisa
nambah awasan kamu terhadap literasi
keuangan ya dan semoga ke depannya bakal
makin banyak lagi acara keuangan yang
penuh Inside kayak gini sampai ketemu
lagi di video selanjutnya tetap di
channel ngomongin uang karena ngomongin
uang enggak ada
habisnya
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