Will Indonesia Join the U.S or China?

Summary

Indonesia, strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is a key player in global maritime trade. The US and China are vying for influence, with Indonesia becoming Southeast Asia's largest economy and the fourth most populous nation. Its military is significant, and recent defense spending increases have heightened regional interest. Indonesia's history of colonialism and its struggle for independence have shaped its cautious approach to alliances. As a major economy and a member of ASEAN, it seeks a balance between economic development and security, wary of aligning too closely with any superpower.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Indonesia is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and controls a crucial maritime choke point.
• 💹 Both the US and China are investing heavily to gain influence in Indonesia due to its economic and geopolitical significance.
• 🚀 Indonesia has quietly become the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world.
• 🔝 In 2023, Indonesia approved a 20% increase in defense spending, highlighting its growing military capabilities.
• 🚢 The Strait of Malacca, where a significant portion of China's trade passes through, lies in Indonesian waters and is a focal point for competing investments.
• 📈 The US's 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy, announced in 2017, aims to counter China's influence and includes partnerships with Japan, India, and Australia.
• 🏛️ Historically, Indonesia has been wary of foreign alliances due to its experiences with colonialism and the Cold War.
• 🔄 Indonesia has a history of playing major powers against each other for its benefit, as seen during the Cold War with the US and the Soviet Union.
• 🔒 The country's military has been skeptical of China due to past conflicts and the 1965 coup attempt, which was blamed on communism.
• 🔧 Indonesia is modernizing its military and increasing defense spending, but it remains neutral and does not want to align too closely with any major power.

Q & A

What is the strategic importance of Indonesia's geographical location?

Indonesia is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, controlling a narrow choke point where a significant portion of global maritime trade passes through. This makes it a key player in the balance of power dynamics in the region.

Why are the United States and China investing in Indonesia?

Both the United States and China are investing in Indonesia to gain its favor as an ally. Indonesia's strategic location, large economy, and significant population make it a valuable partner that could tip the regional balance of power.

What is the 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy mentioned in the script?

The 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy is a U.S. policy aimed at maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region, supporting American jobs, and promoting economic growth. It was announced by President Trump in 2017 and involves cooperation with Japan, India, and Australia.

How does the script describe Indonesia's economy in the context of Southeast Asia?

Indonesia is described as the biggest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world, highlighting its importance in the global economic landscape.

What is the significance of the Strait of Malacca for Indonesia?

The Strait of Malacca is significant for Indonesia as it lies in Indonesian waters and is a crucial passage for two-thirds of China's trade volume, making it a focal point for competing investments from the West.

Why did the United States support Indonesia's independence movement after World War II?

The United States supported Indonesia's independence to counter Soviet influence and played a major role in pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw their colonial troops, seeing the region as strategically important during the Cold War.

What was the impact of the CIA's involvement in Indonesia during the 1950s?

The CIA's involvement in supporting a rebellion in Indonesia in the 1950s was a major blunder, as they misunderstood the internal politics and ended up fighting against their own government's interests, which eventually led to a shift in U.S. policy to supply weapons and improve relations.

How did Indonesia benefit from the Cold War dynamics between the US and the Soviet Union?

Indonesia benefited from the Cold War by playing both the US and the Soviet Union against each other, receiving substantial military and economic aid from both sides, which allowed it to advance its territorial claims and strengthen its military.

What is the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Indonesia's foreign policy?

ASEAN plays a significant role in Indonesia's foreign policy by providing a platform for collective voice and pursuing national interests independently without fear of external influences. It also helps maintain a balance of power in the region.

Why is Indonesia increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military?

Indonesia is increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military to maintain its territorial integrity, respond to extremist groups within the country, and to hedge against potential security threats while maintaining a neutral stance in the current geopolitical landscape.

How does Indonesia's historical experience with colonialism and communism influence its current foreign policy?

Indonesia's historical experiences with colonialism and communism have made it skeptical of external influences and倾向于 maintaining a neutral stance in its foreign policy. This history has shaped its approach to balancing relations with major powers like the US and China.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Geopolitical Significance of Indonesia

Indonesia's strategic location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans makes it a crucial maritime trade route, with both the US and China investing heavily to gain its favor. As the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country, Indonesia's military strength and economic potential are significant. The US's 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy, announced in 2017, aims to counter China's influence, and both superpowers are vying for Indonesia's support. Indonesia's history of colonialism and its struggle for independence have shaped its cautious approach to foreign alliances. The country's military and economic developments are closely watched as they indicate its potential alignment in the current geopolitical landscape.

05:01

🕵️‍♂️ US and Soviet Union's Historical Influence on Indonesia

The US played a pivotal role in Indonesia's struggle for independence by pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw colonial troops. Despite initial support, the US's actions, including CIA involvement in a rebellion and misinterpretation of Indonesia's internal politics, led to a complex relationship. The Soviet Union also provided substantial military aid to Indonesia, contributing to its power dynamics. The 1965 coup attempt and the subsequent anti-communist purge further shaped Indonesia's foreign policy, leading to a period of military rule and suspicion towards external influences. These historical events have left a lasting impact on Indonesia's approach to great power rivalry and its pursuit of a balanced foreign policy.

10:04

🚀 Indonesia's Military and Economic Diplomacy

Indonesia has leveraged its strategic position to receive military aid from both the US and the Soviet Union, using this to advance its territorial claims and military campaigns. The country's military has been skeptical of China due to historical events, including a perceived communist threat. Despite this, Indonesia has maintained a delicate balance by engaging with both the US and China, avoiding alignment with either power to preserve its sovereignty. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been a platform for Indonesia to pursue its national interests without external interference, reflecting its continued caution in the face of new geopolitical dynamics.

15:04

🔄 Balancing Act: Indonesia's Foreign Policy in the New Cold War

Indonesia finds itself in a unique position amidst the new Cold War between the US and China. While it supports the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, it is also cautious not to antagonize China. The country's foreign policy focuses on maintaining a dynamic equilibrium, avoiding strategic alignment to prevent a military buildup in Southeast Asia. Indonesia's military modernization efforts reflect its desire to remain neutral, accepting Western aid without becoming overly dependent. The country's economic and security interests are balanced between the US and China, with Indonesia seeking to maintain its territorial integrity and neutrality in the face of growing regional tensions.

20:05

🛡️ Indonesia's Military Modernization and Neutrality

Indonesia's military modernization efforts, known as the Minimum Essential Force plan, involve purchasing new aircraft and frigates while keeping defense spending low. The country's military equipment is diverse, sourced from multiple countries, allowing Indonesia to claim neutrality in its modernization drive. However, this diversity also increases maintenance and operational costs. Indonesia's ingrained neutrality and lack of a major diaspora population contribute to its lower profile in geopolitical news. The country's strategy is to maintain a balance between the US and China, accepting aid without aligning too closely with either. This approach is seen as crucial for maintaining peace in the region, with Indonesia's neutrality being a key factor in the ongoing security competition.

Keywords

💡Indonesia

Indonesia is a Southeast Asian country made up of thousands of volcanic islands. It is the world's fourth most populous country and has the largest economy in Southeast Asia. In the video, Indonesia's strategic location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans is highlighted as crucial for global maritime trade, with 60% of the world's maritime trade passing through its waters. This positions Indonesia as a key player in the geopolitical competition between the US and China for influence in the region.

💡Maritime trade

Maritime trade refers to the exchange of goods across oceans and seas. The video emphasizes the importance of maritime trade for Indonesia, as a significant portion of global trade passes through its waters, making it a critical choke point for international commerce. This also makes Indonesia a focal point for the strategic interests of both the United States and China.

💡Geopolitical competition

Geopolitical competition is the struggle between nations for power and influence over others. In the context of the video, the US and China are competing for Indonesia's favor, as aligning with either side could significantly tip the balance of power. The competition is not just about trade but also about military alliances and strategic partnerships.

💡Strait of Malacca

The Strait of Malacca is a narrow waterway that connects the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and lies in Indonesian waters. It is highlighted in the video as a critical maritime route through which two-thirds of China's trade volume sails. The strait's strategic importance is underscored by the competing investments from Western countries in the region.

💡ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)

ASEAN is a political, economic, and cultural organization of ten Southeast Asian countries. The video mentions that when combined, ASEAN countries rank as the fifth largest economy with a combined population of 662 million people. Indonesia is a major part of ASEAN, and its cooperation with the rest of the member countries is crucial for the balance of power in the region.

💡Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy

The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy is a US policy aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation and upholding the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. The video explains that this strategy, announced by President Trump in 2017, was done in partnership with Japan, India, and Australia. It is seen by some as an attempt to contain China's growing influence in the region.

💡Defense spending

Defense spending refers to the financial allocation for a country's military capabilities. The video notes that Indonesia approved a 20% increase in defense spending in 2023, indicating a strategic move to modernize its military. This is part of Indonesia's broader efforts to maintain its sovereignty and balance its relations with global powers.

💡Swing state

In the context of the video, a swing state refers to a country whose alignment with either of the major global powers, the US or China, is unpredictable. Indonesia is described as one of the last remaining swing states in the global community, suggesting that its foreign policy decisions could significantly impact the balance of power.

💡Neutrality

Neutrality in the video refers to Indonesia's historical and current foreign policy stance of not aligning too closely with any major power. This approach allows Indonesia to maintain its sovereignty and independence while benefiting from economic and military ties with both the West and China.

💡Economic development

Economic development is a central theme in the video, as it discusses how Southeast Asian countries prioritize economic growth over security concerns. China's economic influence in the region is growing, with trade volumes increasing significantly. Indonesia, like other ASEAN countries, seeks to balance its economic ties with China against its security cooperation with the US and its allies.

💡Military modernization

Military modernization refers to the process of updating and upgrading a country's military capabilities. Indonesia's military modernization efforts, as mentioned in the video, include purchasing new fighter aircraft and frigates, which is part of its strategy to maintain a strong and independent military while hedging against potential threats.

Highlights

Indonesia's strategic location connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans, influencing 60% of global maritime trade.

Both the United States and China are investing heavily to gain Indonesia's favor as an ally.

Indonesia has become the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world.

In 2023, Indonesia approved a 20% increase in defense spending, highlighting its growing military strength.

The Strait of Malacca, crucial for China's trade, lies partially in Indonesian waters and is a focus for Western investments.

The United States' 'free and open Indo-Pacific' strategy aims to support jobs and investments, with Indonesia as a key partner.

China views the US strategy as an attempt to contain its growth rather than promoting free trade.

Indonesia's cooperation is vital for the success of the US strategy in the region.

Indonesia is the world's third-largest democracy and is considered a 'swing state' with unpredictable allegiances.

ASEAN, including Indonesia, forms the fifth largest economy with a combined population of 662 million.

Indonesia's history as a former Dutch colony and its struggle for independence shaped its cautious foreign policy.

During the Cold War, Indonesia played the US and the Soviet Union against each other for its benefit.

Indonesia's military, with significant influence, has been historically suspicious of China due to past conflicts.

Indonesia's foreign policy aims for a dynamic equilibrium between regional powers to maintain its sovereignty.

The majority of Indonesia's military equipment comes from Western countries, not China.

China's economic engagement with Indonesia has grown significantly in recent years.

Indonesia seeks to maintain neutrality and balance between accepting Western aid and Chinese economic ties.

Indonesia's military modernization efforts aim to increase its defense capabilities without aligning with any major power.

Indonesia's approach to its relationships with global powers may contribute to world peace through its neutrality.

Transcripts

physically connecting the Indian and

Pacific Ocean is the nation of Indonesia

where 60% of the world's Maritime trade

passes through both the United States

and China are investing billions of

dollars competing for Indonesia's

affection trying to win them over as an

ally and bestie because if either side

is able to win Indonesia over it would

tip the balance of power wildly in their

favor this is because they've quietly

become the biggest economy in southeast

Asia and the fourth most populous

country in the entire world World they

have a massive military of 400,000

personnel as of 2023 the same year if

they approved a 20% increase a hike to

the defense spending this narrow choke

point is where 2third of China's entire

trade volume sails through the Western

entrance to the straight of Mala lies in

Indonesian Waters but it's also home to

competing investments from the West

here's how the United States free and

open indopacific strategy document puts

it quote this region supports more than

3 million American jobs and is the

source of nearly 900 billion in US

foreign direct investments in the years

ahead as the region drives as much as

2third of global economic growth its

influence will only grow as will its

importance to the United States when

this strategy was first officially

announced by US president Trump in

November 2017 it sent shock waves

through Chinese defense and academic

circles it wasn't a cowboy unilateral

move it was done in partnership with

Japan India and Australia from China's

perspective their AC academics have

written and debated this plan but many

of them suspect it's not about free and

open trade but they believe it's instead

about containing China can't it be a bit

of both either way Indonesia and

cooperation from the rest of the oan

countries are a major part of this

strategy's success or failure what all

this boils down to is that Washington

and Beijing are in competition with each

other to become friends with Indonesia

they're even the world's third largest

democracy and yet foreign policy experts

are calling Indonesia one of the last

remaining swing states in the global

Community a swing state is where support

for one side is unpredictable Indonesia

is a major part of the 10 member

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

or aan aan when combined as a whole they

rank as the fifth largest economy with a

combined population of 662 million

people and a GDP of $1 trillion or 6.5%

of the global GDP they're kind of a big

deal for context NATO has around 900

million people under their umbrella are

there any clues in Indonesia's unique

history that give us a hint as to

whether they'll choose to align with the

United States or China what are the

reasons Indonesia is suspicious of any

potential us or Chinese Alliance why is

the country increasing their spending on

defense and modernizing their military

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private you give them the liver but they

still ask for the heart this is spice

Indonesia was one of the original Spice

Islands which made them incredibly

valuable to colonialists historically

Indonesia was under Dutch colonial rule

for in 3 and A2 centuries between 1816

and about 1941 where they constructed

roads Bridges oil infrastructure and

helped establish a legal system and

governance it was also extremely

oppressive and entirely based on

extracting resources from Indonesia they

forced their people into labor and

suppressed their cultural identities to

prevent any form of rebellion while the

Dutch profited off of Indonesia it was

uh it was pretty ugly then there was a

brief Japanese Occupation during World

War II that kicked the Dutch out after

which the Dutch tried to return to

reclaim their old territory but

Indonesia's people had a taste of not

being under Dutch Rule and they liked it

a rising nationalist movement in the

country challenged the Dutch in 1945

Indonesia declared independence which

they started to fight for through

combination of diplomatic negotiations

armed resistance the Indonesian war for

independence was from 1945 to 1949 and

it involved 240,000 Dutch soldiers who

participated in the war of which 6,200

were Kia and an estimated 2 to 100,000

total Indonesians lost their lives once

the United States realized how important

this region was to countering the

Soviets they played a major role in

pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw

their colonial troops in late 1940s by

threatening to cut off Marshall Plan Aid

if they refused essentially millions and

millions of dollars that worked and the

Dutch left fed out on American sea lift

finally Indonesia gained their hard

fought for independence and sovereignty

in 1949 one of indes I's early Prime

Ministers Muhammad hat instantly

recognized his nation's predicament as

the Cold War started he said quote

Indonesia is rowing between two reefs

meaning they're in between two great

Powers the US and the Soviet Union they

needed to choose their foreign policy

carefully American Diplomat of the 1960s

George Kenan stated that Indonesia was

the most crucial issue at the moment in

our struggle with the Kremlin from

America's point of view from the 1940s

to the 1960s he sat back and watched as

communism gained ground in Korea

Indochina and Mainland China from their

point of view where communism went so

too did authoritarian dictators the big

concern for them was that Indonesia

would follow suit as early as 1955 there

was a large American defense program

training and educating Indonesian

soldiers at Fort Levenworth Kansas

couldn't be more different than

Indonesia major Richard WB hotton wrote

an outstanding publication titled

Jakarta knows best for the US Army's

command and general staff College he

stated US military assistance to

Indonesia began almost as soon as the

ink was dry on the Netherlands transfer

of sovereignty in December 1949 by June

1st 1950 Indonesia had already received

equipment from the United States

including 50 Jeeps 21,000 rifles 1,000

machine guns 500 gas masks and

ammunition for all the above shortly

after that they received armored

vehicles the rice has become porridge

but us diplomacy in Indonesia at the

time was really one of the most bizarre

Fubar stories I think I've ever heard

because a few years later in 1957

Indonesia faced a rebellion from two of

their military commanders then the

American Central Intelligence Agency the

CIA were quick to support that rebellion

and provide Aid to them they did this

because they incorrectly assessed the

situation on the ground and

misunderstood the internal politics

inside Indonesia you see they thought

that Indonesia and their military was

sympathetic to communist M they were

unable to view the situation in terms

other than that narrow black and white

dichotomy of democracy versus communism

there was an internal disagreement with

the head of the CIA Allan dues who was

at odds with the US military leadership

you see Allen wanted to take covert

action while the US military was

advising not to do that so you had the

US diplomats at the embassy in Indonesia

advising the Indonesian military and

government in their fight against the

Rebels the very same Rebels who the CIA

was advising and aiding yes the US

government was working at Cross purposes

actually fighting against themselves

their covert right arm wasn't talking to

the rest of their overt body in response

to the Rebellion the first President of

Indonesia sir Carno sir Carno did

several key things he declared marshal

law and nationalize all the remaining

Dutch assets in Indonesia taking control

of them now the CIA mistook that act of

nationalizing of all the assets under

government control as a communist move

because they didn't understand and the

nation's internal politics it was

actually a move against their former

colonial power not a communist one these

actions had an ironic effect though

because they increased the power and

influence of the Indonesian Army which

in turn weakened the pki Communists in

the country in hindsight the CIA misread

the situation and was pretty major

blunder the CIA supported rebellion was

crushed by Sarno and the Indonesian Army

the CIA realized the mistake and tried

to remedy it not sure what kind of card

you send that says I'm sorry for trying

to overthrow your government apparently

the weapons card because America began

supplying weapons to Indonesia and their

relationship quickly got better 20

Indonesian infantry battalions were

equipped for about 7 million or $74

million today president sir Carno

reportedly had a soft spot for the

beautiful American C130 so they had one

delivered to his forces as a gift this

is how you build trust giving leadership

the toys they want the US military even

gave Sir Carno a joy ride in the c124

globe Master transport that delivered

all the a to his country which he

reportedly got a kick out of there is a

prawn hiding behind the rock of course

it wasn't just us medling the Soviet

Union's involvement in Indonesia is

fascinating and in some weird ways

mirrors the new Cold War we're seeing

today with the US and China thanks to

the release of formerly secret Soviet

Communist party and foreign Ministry

materials combined with What's called

the Gau plan documents this all adds

detailed information on how the Soviet

Union's involvement shaped their history

what is Gau plan this Declassified CIA

document States 50,000 Soviets work

there God plan is like a Libertarians

worst nightmare it was responsible for

Central planning in the Soviet Union G

plan administered 5year plans that

governed the whole USSR that's why we

now know that between 1945 in 1965 the

Soviets sent extraordinarily large

quantities of Aid to Indonesia according

to the paper written by ragna bodden

titled Cold War economics 789 million

Rubles worth of assistance was sent

during those years adjusted for

inflation it's 156 billion rubles or

$1.7 billion today basically accounted

for more than 21% of total Aid provided

by Moscow to non-socialist developing

nations even Vietnam received less

perhaps not so surprisingly only three

of the 27 Civil Works projects funded by

them were ever completed where did the

money actually go you guessed it

according to the Gau plan classified

data that came out after the fall of

Soviet Union 90% of the aid was instead

spent on the military sir Carno made the

decision with Soviet consent Siro was

getting billions of dollars in military

from both the US and Soviets he

basically unlocked an infinite money

glitch and he was exploiting it hard

Indonesia then used their new found

power to advance their territorial

claims into West New Guinea a part of

the region still under Dutch control

Indonesia also launched another military

campaign into Malaysia which failed and

historians say ended up leading to the

infamous couet against him in 1965 the

1965 coup attempt by the communist pki

known as the 30 September movement they

killed their main rival Lieutenant

General AB medani who is the commander

of the Indonesian Army and five other

generals pretty much all of whom had

trained under American Military programs

the exact details of what went down that

night are still of great debate by

historians and inside Indonesia to this

day some believe it was the pki commies

While others believe it wasn't them

according to the army paper jarda knows

best what followed for sure was a

systematic killing or a purge of between

500,000 and 1 million real or alleged

Communists this purge made the military

gain more and more power so the leader

of the military serat became dictator in

1968 taking over from Sir carau

according to the CIA study of events in

Indonesia in terms of the numbers killed

the anti- pki massacre in Indonesia

ranks as one of the worst mass murders

of the 20th century the way this ties

into the situation today is that many

people in the Indonesian military were

suspicious that the Communist Chinese

party was behind the coup attempt

whether that was truly the case or not

don't know historians disagree and the

evidence for it is very limited if at

all I think that's a large part of why

in 1967 Indonesia helped establish the

oan with originally Malaysia Philippines

Singapore and Thailand it was a

counterbalance against external

influences in the region oon gave them a

platform and strengthened their

Collective voice so they could pursue

their national interests independently

without fear of the US Soviet Union or

China meddling or plotting Indonesia's

foreign policy during the Cold War was

an insane rope walking act they played

both the Americans and the Soviets for

everything they were worth we'll see how

they're evolving that same Playbook with

some new tricks for Cold War 2.0 today

but it's important to keep in mind that

its main goal is on conflict resolution

it's not focused on Collective defense

like an organization like NATO the

asia-pacific center for security studies

wrote a great publication by Anthony L

Smith who's a senior research fellow

that states a China threat to Indonesian

sovereignty has been imagined in the

following terms over the years one a

conventional assault by The People's

Liberation Army from the north two

Chinese pressure over sea boundaries in

the South China Sea and three China's

role in causing or sustaining domestic

instability in Indonesia so essentially

the Indonesian military which has a

massive amount of influence and control

in the country has been extremely

skeptical of communist China because

they fought an entire war and executed a

purge of communist forces that they

thought tried to overthrow them similar

to how the US had a bad guy to point two

in terrorism the second president of

Indonesia sorato had a bad guy Boogeyman

of Communism to point to during his rule

whether it was justified or not what it

did was cut off relations with China

this is why their relations with China

didn't even start until 1990 which is

extremely late in the game in 2023

68.5% of oan respondents to a poll said

they were worried about China's growing

regional political and strategic

influence the archipelago Nation it's

made up of roughly 18,000 islands with a

land mass three times that of Texas

while being wider than the entire

continuous United States now you might

think all these water obstacles would

make an invasion difficult and that

might be true but they also make it

tougher to administer and rule over the

divided Islands so between the end of

the Cold War and today Indonesia has

quietly become more powerful now that a

new kind of Quasi Cold War 2.0 is

happening Indonesia finds themselves in

a very different position than last time

around less vulnerable to outside

influence like a ring with a gemstone so

is a wise person with their words the

term term indopacific that the US

officials coined for this region is a

relatively New Concept it defines a

geopolitical region that encompasses

more than half the Earth's surface from

the west coast of America to the east

coast of Africa all oan countries are

essentially supporters of the US

indopacific strategy while at the same

time they're cautious not to align

themselves with the us as to avoid

retaliation from Beijing and China or

the further Stoke a military buildup in

Southeast Asia this is because China

poses a major annoyance to the oan

countries in one way most notably with

regards to beijing's claims to the South

China Sea in this regard all oan

countries benefit from the us-led

rules-based order where Maritime

security is a fundamental pillar but if

oan countries can avoid strategically

aligning they will why wouldn't they

this way they get the benefit of the

security from the US and the west and

the benefits of Economic Development

from China in a strange way this

non-alliance prevents War if suddenly

tomorrow Indonesia were tode entirely

with China the United States it would

actually increase the chances of War as

foreign minister natalo Gara said

Indonesia seeks a dynamic equilibrium

involving the different Regional powers

and he and other Indonesians believe Aon

positioned at the core of the

indopacific will maintain that

equilibrium China is certainly a

long-term strategic challenge for them

and one of the most polarizing foreign

policy questions in Indonesia today

however from their point of view the

military threat that China poses in

Indonesia is not framed in the the same

existential manner like many of us view

it in the United States in the west we

view the rise of China as a Potential

Threat to freedom and security partly

because China's ruled by one single

authoritarian dictator Indonesia's

greatest security threat today are from

extremist groups located in their

country 87% of the country is Muslim

unlike in the Middle East Africa and

South Asia Islam spread peacefully in

Indonesia one of the primary reasons for

Indonesia's strong Muslim presence is it

historical ties to the Arab world that

started all the way back into 13th

century through trade and Islamic

missionaries the gradual conversion of

local populations to Islam during these

periods contributed significantly to the

spread of the religion across the

archipelago over time Islam became

deeply rooted in the social fabric of

the Indonesian Society shaping aspects

of life from language and arts however

the JAMA islamia is the extremist

element inside Indonesia that seeks to

establish an Islamic State inside the

Nation meaning they want islamism and so

Indonesia is a little more difficult to

maintain territorial Integrity because

it's split across so many islands they

face separatist movements seeking

greater autonomy or Independence tigers

die because of their stripes so who if

anyone is winning the competition for

Indonesia's affection when you look at

the vast majority of military equipment

in Indonesia and their Armed Forces

today it's 99% armored vehicles

artillery firearms and fighter jets

largely from Turkey France the UK and us

this includes 33 Fighters 103 of the

leopard 2 main battle tank from Germany

you got the Scorpions from Britain toss

in some 100 AMX 13 tanks you get the

idea it's starting to look like a dang

NATO party there are few pieces of

Chinese equipment that sneak in there

they got some mortar tubes and armored

vehicles but it's few and far between as

far as now the us alone has imported $1

billion in arms and equipment to the

country the US has also conducted over

100 military exercises together and

trained thousands of their officers

Western Military Support is great for

them but what is China bringing to the

table since xiin ping came to office in

2013 the oan countries assumed a much

greater importance in Chinese foreign

policy China started just showering them

with 5.5 billion and funding they

constructed power plants and ports from

Indonesia's perspective to oversimplify

it it boiled down to economic versus

security numerous Studies have concluded

that Southeast Asian countries rank

Economic Development over security

concerns and are generally more worried

about Chinese economic influence and

Chinese military threats the last two

decades has marked China's gradual climb

to top trading partner St St is for all

11 Assan member states becoming the

number one trading block for China by

2020 going from 730 billion in 2020 to

975 billion in 2022 this of course

doesn't take into account that the free

and open indopacific strategy from the

West has Japan as a partner whose main

job is economic development with the oan

countries where they rank a close number

two essentially though China provides

the economic ties as the West provides

the weapons and training and a little

bit of the economic ties this is

actually how many middle power countries

are starting to see their relationship

in this new Cold War security

competition 2.0 the National Bureau of

Asian research and us-based think tank

States given the scale of Indonesia's

economic engagement with China in recent

years the US might have no choice but to

rely on the relationship with

Indonesia's military the game plan for

Indonesia is to accept Western aid but

not get too cozy with them to avoid

antagonizing Beijing which would Stoke

further military buildup there Indonesia

is unlikely to want to join any Alliance

in the region because they don't want to

upset the delicate balance of power

about 15 years ago the country of

Indonesia launched a military

modernization effort called Indonesia's

minimum essential Force plan they're

buying new fighter aircraft and frigs

increasing spending from 20 to 25

billion a year but that's still a very

low less than 1% of their total GDP on

defense less than many in their region

spend the ISS military balance blog

wrote a great outstanding article by

Evan laxmana and he put it this way 33

countries have supplied arms to

Indonesia indones IIA is a hodg podge of

foreign sourced arms and Equipment has

allowed policy makers to claim no

country can veto Indonesia's

modernization drive but it also means

the cost of maintenance repair and

overhaul as well as training education

and exercises to operate a multitude of

different weapon systems have balloon I

think part of the reason as to why

Indonesia might be flying under the

geopolitical radar right now is because

they don't have a major diaspora

population as large as some other

countries they have immigrated to the

Netherlands Malaysia Saudi Arabia the

United States Australia and Singapore

among others but many Indonesians say

that they would rather live in their

home country than move abroad they've

also ingrained neutrality in their DNA

they don't side with any major power I

read a comment by an Indonesian who

described it as you won't hear us as

allies of the west or Chinese puppets

like you hear about some other countries

so they don't make as many headlines in

the alarmist click baiting economy

whether this Balancing Act of neutrality

is tenable into the far future is

debatable it's clear that they will

continue to hedge themselves against

both the US and China of which they

remain distrustful of personally I think

the best way forward for the US is to

use their military influence to maintain

a status quo at all costs the world's

peace might just depend on the

neutrality of these swing States I'm

your average infan Chris Cappy thank you

for watching click one of these videos

if you have another minute because

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