URGENT: Once in a LIFETIME Stock Market Event IS HERE
Summary
TLDRThe video highlights a unique stock market opportunity during the Q4 2024 election cycle. The speaker discusses the potential for volatility and uncertainty leading up to the election, but remains optimistic about a bull market in the short term. He suggests strategies like selling 30 Delta covered calls to capitalize on moderate market rises of 3-5%. Additionally, he emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Walmart, while avoiding holding too much cash. The speaker also offers one-on-one coaching for portfolio growth, targeting determined individuals with substantial capital.
Takeaways
- 💡 The stock market presents a unique opportunity due to the upcoming election, with a potential bull market in Q4 2024 and into 2025.
- 📈 While the market has been volatile, data shows a positive trend historically for post-election rallies, especially in November and December.
- 🤔 Tom Lee of Fundstrat describes the short-term market direction as a coin flip, but the speaker believes the market will rise by 3-5% in Q4.
- 💰 A recommended strategy is selling 30 Delta covered calls to capitalize on moderate market gains and collect premiums, maximizing returns.
- 📉 Inflation is no longer a front-line concern, though the government may be manipulating CPI data, creating perceived stability in prices.
- 🚀 Despite short-term volatility, the overall sentiment suggests a bull market. High-quality stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, and Apple are top picks.
- 🧠 Many hedge fund managers are cautious due to fears of a recession, but the market's strength indicates resilience and potential growth.
- 🎯 The speaker emphasizes keeping portfolios simple, with 10-15 high-quality stocks and moderate bullish strategies like covered calls and leaps.
- ✈️ American Airlines is highlighted as an overlooked stock with strong returns, suggesting investors focus on trends and undervalued stocks.
- 📊 Diversification and focusing on long-term, high-quality investments rather than chasing quick profits are key to steady portfolio growth.
Q & A
What is the unique opportunity in the stock market mentioned in the transcript?
-The unique opportunity is related to the upcoming election and its potential impact on the stock market, suggesting a bull market in Q4 2024 and leading into 2025.
What is Tom Lee's opinion on the short-term stock market performance after the Fed's jumbo cut?
-Tom Lee believes that the market's performance in the next month is uncertain, likening it to a coin flip, due to repositioning and the upcoming election.
Why do wealth managers and family offices hesitate to commit capital until after the election?
-They want to wait for the election event to pass, regardless of who wins, to avoid the uncertainty and volatility it brings to the market.
What is the typical market behavior after election day according to the transcript?
-The transcript suggests that there is often a 'dash to the finish' after election day, with November and December typically seeing strong market rallies.
What is the suggested investment strategy for the current market conditions?
-The suggested strategy is to sell covered call options, particularly 30 Delta covered calls, to take advantage of the expected bull market while also collecting premiums.
What does the term 'Poor Man's Covered Call' refer to in the context of the transcript?
-It refers to buying a cheaper leap option that mimics the effect of owning shares, which is another strategy suggested for the current market.
Why does the speaker believe that inflation is not accurately represented in the CPI basket?
-The speaker argues that the government is manipulating the CPI basket by substituting goods like beef with cheaper alternatives like chicken to artificially lower inflation figures.
What is the speaker's prediction for the stock market rise in Q4?
-The speaker predicts a moderate rise of between 3 to 5% in the stock market in Q4.
What are the three moderately bullish strategies recommended in the transcript?
-The three strategies are selling covered calls, buying leap options (Poor Man's Covered Call), and investing in high-quality companies.
Why does the speaker advise against holding cash during this period?
-The speaker advises against holding cash because they believe it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in the market and that there is significant money to be made by investing.
What is the speaker's view on the importance of portfolio diversification?
-The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a diverse portfolio of 10 to 15 stocks to avoid over-concentration and to take advantage of various market opportunities.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Outlook: Opportunity Amid Election Volatility
As Q3 comes to an end, there’s a unique opportunity in the stock market tied to the upcoming election. The speaker highlights that while the market has been relatively flat following a Fed rate cut, volatility may arise due to the uncertainty surrounding the election, making it a ‘coin flip’ for short-term movements. However, historical data suggests that after elections, there’s often a strong rally in November and December, especially in election years. Investors are currently holding off until post-election, but there's a potential bull market on the horizon. The speaker discusses covered call options as a strategy to navigate this uncertainty while taking advantage of potential market gains.
🤔 Inflation Misconceptions and Stock Market Strategies
The speaker critiques current inflation reporting, stating that the government manipulates the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by substituting cheaper goods for more expensive ones, which artificially lowers inflation. He dismisses this as misleading and argues that despite these manipulations, the market reflects positive signals. He emphasizes that a moderate bull market is expected in Q4, with a 3-5% rise, presenting an opportunity to use covered call strategies. He encourages investors to consider the 'poor man's covered call' using leap options, which mimic stock ownership at a lower cost. These strategies offer moderate upside with less risk, ideal for the current market environment.
🚀 Investor Psychology and Upcoming Bull Market
The speaker delves into investor psychology, pointing out that although many believe a recession is imminent, the market’s strength contradicts this. He explains that widespread belief in a recession might actually bolster the market’s eventual rise as volatility subsides. Predicting a modest 3-5% market pump, the speaker reiterates the importance of strategies like covered calls and the poor man's covered call to capitalize on this growth. He also urges viewers to focus on key stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Palantir while avoiding over-diversification and complex strategies, advocating for simplicity and high-quality investments.
💼 High-Quality Stocks and Simplified Investment Strategies
The speaker shares his portfolio, spotlighting Walmart as one of his best-performing stocks. He contrasts the appeal of high-growth stocks like Palantir, which has already surged, with the value of more stable, predictable stocks like Walmart. He emphasizes that picking steady, reliable companies is a better way to build consistent returns, especially by selling covered calls at 30 Delta. He stresses that trying to chase quick profits leads to risk and unnecessary complexity, while sticking to a small selection of high-quality stocks, such as Walmart or American Airlines, offers better long-term potential.
🎯 Personal Coaching and Scaling Portfolios
The speaker discusses his one-on-one coaching program, aimed at individuals with at least $25,000 to $50,000 to invest. His coaching focuses on helping clients scale their portfolios through personalized strategies like covered calls. He encourages those with determination and financial success to join his program for more hands-on guidance, stating that cash should not be held during the current market conditions. He concludes by reiterating the importance of making smart moves in the stock market right now, leveraging covered calls and safe strategies to maximize returns in this unique market environment.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡election
💡stock market
💡FED
💡easing cycle
💡covered call options
💡30 Delta
💡bull market
💡volatility
💡inflation
💡CPI
💡recession
Highlights
Unique opportunity in the stock market due to the upcoming election cycle.
Market may experience volatility due to uncertainty in election outcomes, but overall trends indicate a bull market in Q4 2024.
Tom Lee's analysis suggests that short-term stock market behavior is a coin flip, but long-term prospects are more bullish.
Selling 30 Delta covered calls is recommended as a strategy to benefit from moderate market growth without excessive risk.
Election-related hesitation among investors is delaying capital deployment until after election day, but a rally is expected post-election.
Historically, stock markets perform well during November and December following election years, particularly when the market has risen by more than 10% in the first half.
Despite volatility, a 3-5% rise in the stock market is expected in Q4, making covered call options an attractive strategy.
The market is likely to rise in Q4 2024, creating opportunities to collect dividends or premiums through covered call options.
The government’s manipulation of inflation data through substitution in the CPI basket creates a misleading impression that inflation is under control.
Inflation, although seemingly under control, is still a concern for market participants.
Tom Lee highlights that many investors are already pricing in a potential recession, yet the market continues to perform strongly, indicating resilience.
Investor psychology suggests that when many people believe in a recession, it can reinforce bearish sentiment, but current market strength contradicts this.
The combination of volatility calming down and hesitation fading is likely to lead to a significant market rally, predicted at 3-5%.
Aside from covered calls, the 'Poor Man’s Covered Call' strategy involving LEAP options is recommended for additional upside potential.
A focus on high-quality stocks such as Nvidia, Palantir, and Apple, combined with options strategies, offers a safer route to growth in the current market environment.
Transcripts
as quarter 3 comes to a close there is a
unique opportunity in the stock market
due to the election that I want to bring
to your attention right now because this
opportunity I'm going to break down
exactly the best way to take advantage
of it and the best way to play in the
stock market right now so here's what is
going to happen in the short term it
does take us to our talk of the tape how
much more can stocks rise let's ask Tom
Lee he's fund strats head of research a
CNBC contributor live with us once again
at post night nice to see you great to
see you you know since the FED did their
jumbo cut the market really hasn't done
all that much except for one day last
Thursday why uh well you know I think
the FED Unleashed uh us on an easing
cycle and that's going to be positive we
know it's actually historically positive
3 months 6 months out but what Stock's
doing the next month is a bit of a coin
flip and I think that's what we're
seeing because there's some
repositioning that took place and also
we're now thinking about the 40 days
into the election so does the fact that
the is but 40 days away sort of ruin the
perfect scenario for stocks to get that
post fed bump I I think it delays it um
just because you know in in the
conferences that I've been speaking
speaking at and seeing wealth managers
and family offices a lot don't want to
commit Capital until after election day
and it I don't think it matters who wins
it's just they want to get that event
behind them oh so you think we're going
to have sort of a dash to the finish uh
after election day is is out of the way
yeah and that's pretty typical you know
in fact uh in in election years the
November December rallies are pretty
tremendous and in fact when markets are
up more than 10% in the first half you
also get big rallies November December
sort of choppy through September guys if
you heard what Tom Lee said he thinks
it's a coin flip for the next three
months this is very interesting and to
some degree I completely agree and I've
been saying on this channel that in the
short term nobody can predict the market
not Tom Lee not hedge funds however
because of the election cycle I think
that and I'm going to show you the facts
I'm going to show you the research right
now that despite it being a coin flip in
the short term in Q4 2024 and leading up
into 2025 we are actually going to be in
a bull market and there is a big
short-term opportunity to take advantage
of here so look specifically I want to
look at covered call options right now
in this market because when the market
starts off very well for example in 2024
during an election year the facts the
stats are that the Market is going to
continue to do well so in Q4 we're going
to get a bull run and we're going to
have a rise in the stock market however
we are going to experience volatility
because the polls are not really clear
on who's going to win not going to get
political however it is not clear there
is a lot of volatility and uncertainty
in the market despite the facts pointing
to being a bull market in Q4 so when I
was looking at Tom Lee's um predictions
here and what he thinks is going to
happen in the market him saying it's a
coin flip the perfect opportunity to to
take advantage of this coin flip is
going to be selling 30 Delta covered
calls why if you look at what a coin
flip is he's basically saying he doesn't
know if the market is going to go up he
doesn't know if the market is going to
go down but if you look at the facts the
market is likely to rise let's say it's
going to rise in Q4 by 3 to 5% that's
actually a very perfect opportunity to
get a 3 to 5% rise as well as collect 3
to 5% dividend or premium by selling a
covered call option
okay so what I'm personally going to be
doing I'll show you an example in just a
moment is I'm going to be selling a lot
more covered calls in my portfolio and
I'm going to be buying up stock just
watch this one clip because I want to
tell you why what Tom Lee thinks and
then I'm going to tell you why I am not
just going to sell covered calls I'm
also going to be careful about the short
term how I do it so watch this clip real
quick you think investors are sold on
the idea that this economy is going to
make it it's going to make it through
the fed's going to pull this off is any
of what we've witnessed since fed day
doubts about the bigger picture
Lee has basically confirmed he started
off with the first clip saying that it's
a coin flip but in the second clip that
I just played he's saying that inflation
is no longer on the front lines guys
inflation which by the way they've been
lying to us for quite some time they're
saying that you know inflation is under
control it's really not if you take a
look guys they're lying to us and I've
said this in two videos now they're
substituting inflation and making it
artificially lower by messing with the
CPI basket okay the CPI is a combination
of 30 Goods Services Education Health
Care food gas Etc right they're
substituting some of those goods for
other goods and I've said this and I
made the joke but they're substituting
beef for chicken I don't want to eat
chicken I want to eat beef if I want to
eat beef I don't want the government to
tell me that chicken is a substitute for
beef they think it's a substitute
because when prices go up then basically
consumers choose less expensive
substitutes but let's be honest if
you're a beef eater you probably don't
want to eat chicken and and the
government to lie to us and say that hey
inflation is not getting higher but
they're actually substituting things
doesn't make any sense to me so but
let's just put that to the side
inflation looks under control and what
looks to be true in the stock market in
many cases actually reflects in the
stocks prices so for that reason it's
fine because second thing something that
Tom Le said which I think is insane this
is insane this tells you why we're in a
bull run and this tells you why you
should be buying stocks right now and
why you should be doing covered calls at
around 30 Delta because it gives you
upside but it doesn't give you too much
upside we don't want too much upside
because we think that the stock market
um will rise but it's not going to be a
crazy rise I predict between 3 to 5%
rise in Q4 now look he basically Tom Lee
said that many already think it's a
recession guys you might be thinking to
yourself right now listen you might be
thinking to yourself that if a lot of
people think it's a recession you might
be more inclined yourself to think it's
an a recession let me tell you how
investor psychology works it is her
behavior when a lot of people think it's
a recession recession is actually happen
but check it out a lot of people right
now think we're in a recession but the
market is doing strong which actually
means we are strong that's actually what
it means because if a lot of people are
hesitant and we're going to get
volatility and we're all scared but the
market is still high and there's a lot
of that hesitation just wait what
happens when the hesitation goes away
just wait what happens when the market
market stabilizes and volatility gets
under control a little bit we're going
to get a big rise we're going to get a
big pump I think the pump's 3 to 5% so
I'm you know we're not going to become
millionaires here but there's certainly
money to be made in the short term now
in addition to uh covered calls I would
also say that it is wise to do the poor
man's covered call I've covered this on
my channel which is basically buying a
leap option that looks like a shares but
for a lot cheaper and I have a video on
that I'm going to put it in the Des
description guys I I just want to
educate you and teach you uh I'm a
one-on-one coach now that's my what my
program is that's the only thing that I
personally am involved in and I'm
creating free content on YouTube because
I want you to level up your skills I
want you to learn how to trade options
if you appreciate that please subscribe
to the channel we're about to hit
300,000 subscribers and what you will
see in my description is going to be the
poor man's covered call video as well as
a leap video okay because right now
these are the three strategies that you
should be playing bullish strategy leaps
covered calls Poor Man's covered call
these three strategies are moderately
bullish strategy we're not Ultra bullish
if we were Ultra bullish we would be
buying call options we would be doing
bull call spreads I have all these
videos on my channel check them out we
have a playlist however I will say that
we are moderately bullish okay Tom Le
said inflation is no longer on the front
burner uh many people think and hedge
fund managers guys it's insane hedge
fund managers think that uh the session
is over yet the market is doing pretty
good and I myself I'm buying the best
stocks right now Nvidia paler Apple I'm
buying these hand over fist guys or or
bicep over tricep okay I'm pumped up I'm
really pumped up because I've been
making a kill in here my portfolio is uh
it's growing every single week right now
it's a easy time to make money I'm I'm
proud of my students as well it's it's a
very easy time to make money and when
times are good guys grab the money okay
grab the money as much as possible
because times are not always good in the
market sometimes we have what is we
there was a lost decade in Japan okay
some people are are saying that we might
get that I don't think so guys I'm a
bull here I've been making money I've
gained a lot of success trading options
and I don't think we're going to get a
loss decade but we could get a lost
quarter we can get a lost two quarters
guys so it's important when money is on
the table that you take that money you
grab it for yourself okay grab that
money because right now now I think with
the election it's a Once in a-lifetime
opportunity I truly think so because
right now just the perfect storm is is
here so this is very good news because
the upside is the next 3 to six months
meaning we have time to get the money we
have time we don't have to rush here
because week after week I mean let me
look at my portfolio right now we're I'm
up over pretty much six figures in my
portfolio in a week in a week obviously
I have more I have a bigger sized
portfolio but you guys if you have 50k
100K you you got to be fully invested if
you're holding cash right now you're
silly you're watching the wrong channels
you're you're watching some people on
YouTube that have a pretty face that
they're telling you they know what
they're talking about they don't guys
they they don't pay attention to one
credible Source listen to what the
market is telling you right now you
don't need a lot of opinions and Tom Lee
himself said it's basically a coin flip
so stop consuming a ton of content and
start realizing that you should be in
high quality companies selling monthly
options which makes your life very
simple you don't need to predict what
the market does what you need to
understand is we are in a bull market by
highquality companies and viia palent
here Apple uh I'm a fan of Microsoft
right now there's some other stocks that
I personally like I made a killing on
Walmart guys this wouldn't be an invest
with Henry video if I didn't show my
portfolio the transparency the
authenticity it is next to none no one
else shows their portfolio like this and
I want to show you because I think it's
really important for you to understand
where I am investing not just me talking
on the camera I want to show you what
I'm doing okay I want to show you how
I'm making money Walmart one of my best
plays all right this might not be the
sexiest play you might be thinking to
yourself oh I want to make quick money
on paler listen paler already went up
listen to the next play to make money
okay listen to what is coming up in the
future okay not what's in the past I
like paler don't get me wrong however
paler is at a short-term Peak it looks
like so I'm less excited I'm listen I'm
less excited why would you be excited
when a stock just went up basically like
50% yeah it's good it has been good to
us I'm still in paler I have over 5,000
shares but you have to look at what is
coming up what is still cheap what is
still valuable okay what will go up due
to a trend Walmart I'm up
$172,000 on a boring play If you're
looking for Save passive consistent
income the best thing to do is go for
Clear Trends value companies at a
reasonable cost or grow stocks at a
reasonable cost and make your money
slowly I'm tired of seeing guys and
women breaking up their whole entire uh
portfolios into like 30 positions and
just going off the deepend and losing
their money it's really easy to make
money if you keep it simple 10 to 15
stocks right now covered calls 30 Delta
stick to the 30 Delta look if you go for
50 Delta you don't give yourself any
upside so if you don't have any upside
how are you going to take advantage of
the bull run now if you go for Deltas
that are like 5 10 Delta you're just not
you're not collecting enough income I
want you guys to have the best of both
worlds that's my job here that's how
I've been able to travel the world see
anything that I want have Financial
Freedom time Freedom scale my portfolio
5K a month 10K a month 15K a month
obviously I've surpassed all my
financial goals I no longer really like
even care about money per se I'm trying
to leave an impact I'm trying to change
some lives I want you guys to have the
financial future and the Financial
Freedom that you're looking for use safe
stocks don't make the mistake of trying
to make fast money that doesn't work
okay you can make relatively fast money
by being in high quality companies okay
Walmart up
172k I would look at something like a
Walmart I would also look at American
Airlines this is the most overlooked
stock this stock I've been covering on
this channel since I've had 20,000 Subs
now we're getting to 300,000 subs and
this
guys just look
7% we got 7% returns guys I'm super
pumped up CU this is easy money right
here this stock fell to $10 per share I
told all my one-on-one students sell
10.5 puts for November for December in
my Discord Community I've told everyone
this is the stock to be in now look this
is not a stock that anyone else covers
on YouTube it's not the the stock that
people keep covering over and over and
over again Nvidia tent here right people
make 30 videos a month on their Channel
or like a video a week on that topic
guys I make that topic too but I want to
mix it up I want to give you guys more
plays that actually make sense you need
diversity you can't just be all Nvidia
and pal here you need 10 to 15 stocks
American Airlines is fantastic this is a
money printing machine because it goes
sideways exactly what Tom Lee said he
said that basically it's a coin flip
okay if it's a coin flip pick a stock
that has stability it's still going to
be more or less a coin flip but sell
options and collect that passive income
go for the November 1st yeah 111
expiration on American Airlines and
collect easy income okay uh I got PayPal
I got palen here I got Amazon snap is
obviously uh something that's also
interesting to me I think because we
have 3 to six months guys this is the
most important 3 to six months for you
to take advantage of okay if you want
one-on-one coaching which is the only
thing that I do now okay I have a
Discord Community but everything starts
off with one-on-one coaching you must
have at least you know $50,000 or
$25,000 at least you need to have a
decent chunk of change for it to make
sense for us to work oneon-one together
if that is you and you want help I'm
happy to dedicate myself I'm looking to
actually create deep relationships coach
oneon-one and just build build up you
know your portfolio with you hands on
that's what I enjoy doing and I no
longer want to go for the masses I'm
looking for people that have
determination doctors lawyers business
owners if you have success or even if
you're you know you've already have a
okay amount of money saved up 25k 50k
100K it's going to be really good
opportunity for us to scale your
portfolio together so um I to be honest
I'm pretty full I'm just telling you how
it is in my plans I don't know if
there's any spots but please right now
take advant of the stock market be smart
don't be in cash I think that's going to
be a mistake okay long story short I
hope this content is helping you I'm
going to leave in the description some
more uh videos for you guys to watch for
you to brush up your option trading
skills there's a lot of money to be made
right now be smart and uh I'll catch you
guys in the next video
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