Officially in Cutting Cycle, How Bitcoin, Altcoin Market and Stocks Responded with the Last Change
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the Blockchain Backer discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate on cryptocurrency markets. He analyzes Bitcoin's price chart, noting the market's green trend post-FOMC meeting. The video delves into historical market responses to rate changes, drawing parallels to past cycles and speculating on potential future market behavior. The presenter also highlights the significance of the 50-day moving average and the Russell 2000 index in gauging market direction, suggesting a possible short-lived rally following the rate cut.
Takeaways
- 📉 The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, which typically influences financial markets including cryptocurrencies.
- 🟢 Post-FOMC meeting, cryptocurrency markets showed green with Bitcoin on the move, suggesting a positive reaction to the rate cut.
- 📈 Stock indices like the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P were up in pre-market, indicating a broader market optimism following the rate decision.
- 🤔 The video discusses the potential retracement levels for Bitcoin, pondering how deep the correction might go and the significance of historical retracement points.
- 📊 The presenter references past market structures and behaviors, particularly around the 50-week moving average, to draw parallels and predict future market movements.
- 📚 Historical analysis is used to examine how markets have reacted to past rate hikes and cuts, with the suggestion that cuts can sometimes precede market rallies.
- 🚀 The video speculates on the speed at which market movements can occur, noting that significant changes can happen rapidly, within a matter of days.
- 📝 The concept of 'this time is different' is addressed, suggesting that while market participants often believe each cycle is unique, historical patterns can still provide insights.
- 👀 The presenter emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Russell 2000 index as a key indicator of market sentiment and potential future trends.
- ⏰ The video concludes with a reminder of the swift and sometimes unpredictable nature of market movements, urging viewers to stay vigilant and informed.
Q & A
What was the main topic of discussion in the video?
-The main topic of discussion was the Bitcoin price chart and the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by half a percentage point on cryptocurrency markets.
What significant event occurred in the financial markets that the video discusses?
-The video discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate, which had been paused for a year and two months.
How did the cryptocurrency markets react to the FOMC meeting's outcome?
-The cryptocurrency markets showed positive reactions, with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experiencing an uptick in value, as indicated by the green markets.
What was the presenter's stance on the potential retracement of Bitcoin's price?
-The presenter was cautious about committing to a specific retracement level for Bitcoin, noting that past market behaviors and structural patterns were not definitive indicators of future movements.
What historical price action did the presenter compare the current Bitcoin situation to?
-The presenter compared the current Bitcoin situation to historical price actions, particularly focusing on retracements to the 50-week moving average and the market's behavior during previous rate hike and cut cycles.
What is the significance of the 50-week moving average in the context of the video?
-The 50-week moving average is significant as it has historically acted as a support or resistance level. The presenter noted that Bitcoin has previously tested this level during key market turns.
What was the presenter's view on the market's response to past Federal Reserve rate cuts?
-The presenter suggested that while past rate cuts have sometimes been followed by market rallies, the duration of these rallies is not predictable and historically has not necessarily implied a long-term bullish trend.
What was the presenter's advice regarding the potential for a rapid market move?
-The presenter advised that market moves can happen quickly and emphasized the importance of being attentive to market signals, particularly if certain technical levels are breached.
How did the presenter address the concept of 'this time is different' in the market?
-The presenter acknowledged the common phrase 'this time is different' used by retail investors, but argued that there are unique characteristics and behaviors in the current market cycle that differentiate it from past cycles.
What resources did the presenter mention for further education on market analysis?
-The presenter mentioned a newsletter on Substack, a website (BCB backer.com) for educational content on market analysis, and his YouTube channel for video content.
Outlines
📈 Market Reaction to FOMC Meeting and Bitcoin Price Analysis
The speaker, 'the blockchain backer', discusses the immediate aftermath of the FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate by half a percentage point. This marks the end of a year and two-month pause. The cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, are experiencing a positive trend in response. The speaker also mentions the performance of the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P in pre-market, hinting at a broader market optimism. They reference a previous lengthy video where historical market structures were analyzed, and speculate on the potential duration and depth of market retracements. The discussion includes technical analysis, focusing on the 200-day moving average and its historical significance in market movements.
🔍 Historical Market Behavior Post-Fed Decisions
The speaker delves into historical market behavior following Federal Reserve rate decisions, focusing on how the market responded to past rate hikes and cuts. They highlight that during the last two cutting periods, the market rallied after the cuts began, suggesting a possible pattern. The discussion includes the significance of the 50-week moving average as a potential support level. The speaker also reflects on the rapid changes in market sentiment and the swiftness with which market tops can form, using examples from 2021 and 2022 to illustrate the point. They emphasize the importance of being cautious and prepared for quick market movements, especially in the context of the Fed's decisions.
🚀 Speculation on Market Trends and Investor Sentiment
The speaker speculates on potential market trends, considering the impact of the Fed's rate cut on investor sentiment and market dynamics. They discuss the possibility of a short-lived rally following the rate cut and compare it to the market's behavior during the hiking cycle. The speaker also touches on the concept of 'this time is different,' a phrase often used by retail investors, and argues that while each market cycle has its unique characteristics, historical patterns can still provide valuable insights. They mention the potential for a rapid market move if certain technical levels are breached, such as the 50-week moving average, and the importance of monitoring these levels closely.
🌟 Market Outlook and Final Thoughts
In the final paragraph, the speaker summarizes the market outlook, emphasizing the importance of watching for a breakout in the Russell 2000 index as a key indicator of market direction. They also reflect on the significance of the Fed's rate cut and its potential to catalyze market movement. The speaker acknowledges the excitement and anticipation surrounding the Fed's decision, suggesting that it could be a pivotal moment for market participants. They conclude by encouraging viewers to stay informed, consider different perspectives, and remain vigilant in their market analysis. The speaker also promotes their newsletter and educational resources, offering further insights into market behavior and technical analysis.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Federal Reserve
💡FOMC meeting
💡Federal funds rate
💡Retracement
💡Russell 2000
💡Moving average
💡Confluence
💡Rally
💡Recession
💡Market structure
Highlights
Bitcoin price chart analysis following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate.
Cryptocurrency markets show green with the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P all up in pre-market.
Discussion on the market's structural playout as imagined back in November of the previous year.
The million-dollar question about the duration of market stability before another move and the depth of a potential retracement.
Historical retracement patterns and their significance in the current Bitcoin market situation.
The 200-day moving average as a key technical indicator in past market movements.
The potential for a short-lived rally following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, based on historical market responses.
The importance of the 50-week moving average in market analysis and its role in past Bitcoin price actions.
The comparison between the current market structure and previous cycles, specifically the inverse pattern.
The significance of the Federal Reserve's rate decisions in the context of market history and potential future movements.
The concept of market sentiment flipping rapidly and the potential for quick market turnarounds.
The impact of retail investor behavior on market tops and the experience of retail arrival in 2021.
The potential for a fast market move and the importance of being prepared for rapid changes.
The role of dominance and safety trades in market analysis and their indicators for market direction.
The difference between this market cycle and previous ones, and the implications for investors.
The importance of recognizing market signals and the potential for a quick market move following the Federal Reserve's rate cut.
The significance of the number of live viewers during market events and its potential as a reversal marker.
The availability of educational resources for setting up charts and understanding market behavior.
Final thoughts on the current market situation, the potential for excitement, and the importance of staying informed.
Transcripts
hey what's going on everybody this is
the blockchain backer bringing you the
latest cryptocurrency news and Analysis
today we'll be talking about the Bitcoin
price chart as we're coming off of
yesterday's fomc meeting where the
Federal Reserve lowered the federal
funds rate by half of a percentage point
after being paused for a year and 2
months we've got some green
cryptocurrency markets heading into the
next day we've got the Russell 2000 up
2% here in pre-market as I'm recording
right now you got the NASDAQ up 2% you
got the Dow up 1% and the S&P up 1.5% in
pre-market still not a breakout of
retracements yet for the Russell but
definitely dancing with it and of course
Bitcoin on the move at the same time now
if you caught the video that was put out
on Monday it was quite long if I had to
guess that was one of the top five
longest videos I've ever put out we
spent a lot of time talking about things
that we had discussed back in November
of last year on kind of imagining how
the market could play out structurally
we saw that happen over here on bitcoin
we're just looking at it from an inverse
perspective in here now the
million-dollar question is how long are
we going to have to Waddle in here
before another move could happen and how
deep does a retracement have to go in in
here like so or is that good enough and
again flipping that over giving you
something like that right it's hard for
me personally to be really committal on
which one has to happen because even in
this one I knew Bitcoin was in a bare
Market at that time but even I expected
a higher retracement to come out in here
before it would turn over instead of
only going back to the 382 retracement
which if you look now for Bitcoin it's
really how high it's gotten or how low
it's gotten as if it's already done that
far of a move now there were interesting
things about the retracement that
happened back in here before this turned
over and that is this was going back to
the 200 day moving average and it was a
pinpoint hit and then boom down and away
it went you go back and look at the same
thing this is the exact same structure
in here 200 day moving average slightly
short but that's where it stops and then
boom off and away it goes you look over
to today's price action we don't really
have anything resembling that at all as
what you would really be looking for is
the 200 day moving average being down
here on the downside and you whip it and
then bounce right off of it and go right
but we talked about this in markets in
the morning yesterday and during the FED
meeting is that things that actually
were very interesting about that moment
and about that moment is they were
actually back test as well of the 50 we
moving average in there so here we are
talking about this and that's the 50e
moving average coming back to test and
then rejection and well what have we
gotten to right here we've gotten back
to the 50 we moving average so
contextually these also hitting the 50e
moving average as in here at the same
time so it's an interesting Confluence
to see that but another thing of course
on that topic of the fed and what
happens whenever rate hikes happen
whatever happens whenever rate Cuts
happened we really just have to kind of
look back through history and see how
did the market respond to when hiking or
when cutting or pausing has happened for
over a year we talked a lot about what
could happen during a pause and what
we've seen before and really we got
exactly that when it came to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average it was able to
break out of its all-time high when the
pause of the federal funds rate was
happening we need to look at that
because that's exactly what happened
back before the great financial crisis
is that during the pause we saw the
market rip off into new highs and that's
exactly what we saw happen in here so
now the question comes of well now that
the cut has started what comes next your
guess is as good as mine but when we
look through historical behaviors we can
try tow a conclusion based on it and the
point of this is not to scare you for
those who have seen what happens next is
that typically this is marking that hey
a recession isn't too far away but the
last couple of cutting Cycles when Cuts
happen the markets can kind of rally for
a couple of months we've talked about
that many times I've written about that
in newsletters that even here in 2019
and 20 we see that happening here after
the cuts that you still got a couple of
months of a rally to go on in here but
the reason why I brought this up in here
when we're talking about fed and the day
after the FED cut is that we're talking
about the Confluence of these structures
and how they happened in here and
getting back to this 50e moving average
and that this whole price structure in
here is essentially the same price
structure just inversed which is why
we're looking at it in that manner then
debating how high does this thing have
to retrace how far does it have to go
and saying well here's technical things
that happened last time to insinuate how
far it had to go whether it was here in
2022 where it went back to the 50e
moving average or if it was back over
here in 2018 where it goes back to the
50e moving average coming off of the
exact same style Behavior many of you
know this like we looked at this at the
top of 2021 over and over again saying
look we're doing a bare Market structure
here from the peak of the market here at
the very top and in both circumstances
they go back to the 50 we moving average
and so we look at it from this
perspective and say hey look we're doing
that structure just the opposite
direction and both times they go back to
the 50e moving average and we are this
time we went back to the 50e moving
average which just on the top side of it
but how does that tie into the fed well
we know that historically at least in
the last 25 years and specifically the
last two cutting periods there was some
type of rally that happened after the
cuts began but not only that we actually
see this right we're focusing on this
we're focusing on you know can we go
ahead and use this level as an actual
support and then use Confluence of fed
rates at that same time and it was very
interesting of what happened there
because here we are talking about the
50e moving average we're talking about
the structure we're talking about the
50e moving average and what happens when
we get back here the First Rate hike and
what happens is we're here the first cut
right falls back hike rates crash falls
back Cuts rates crash but that wouldn't
be a crash because this is
inverted that'd be a run you get what
I'm saying but even in the circumstance
in here it's very interesting to look at
it from the perspective of time we've
constantly talked about that you know if
things kick in they can happen very
quickly they can happen and a blink of
an eye and then it's all over and even
when you look at it through this
perspective of how things happened back
in 2022 once those cuts happened and
then once the crashes started kicking in
well once this thing started kicking in
this whole fall only lasts 81 days that
is the full-blown whole move of the
whole thing the FED hikes 81 days of
absolute craziness to the downside and
that's the end of the move and to this
day that Still Remains the low of the
altcoin market it's the low of ethereum
binance coin xrp Litecoin sure there's
some that have set lowers but your
Majors that's the low right in there
Tron 81 days and then it was all over in
regards to downside price action but
what happened after that what happened
after those 81 days right throw the
Russell 2000 on there to look at it from
that for that perspective as well right
same thing it's just the whole Market
going down that's it that's capitulation
that's the end of the move but then you
go on for a year and a half of the
Market's still thinking we're going to
go lower and I don't know if that's
what's going to happen here I don't know
if it's going to be some 80-day run to
the upside of insanity and then we spend
a whole year just sitting there and the
whole Market is completely convinced for
a whole year screaming that we're going
to go higher right it's plausible it's
possible but you reflect back on it and
remember it was only 81 days the hike
happens the hiking cycle keeps going but
it was just that period right there in
the hiking cycle where prices kept
crashing from the market all recovered
during the rest of it and I bring that
up to just say you know if the cut has
now happened and there's some type of
big move where we're back at the 50e
moving average we're back at the 50e
moving average if this thing took this
out finally do you like honestly believe
that there not going to be constantly
foryear cycle we have until December of
2025 this thing is just starting we're
just going I think that would be the
narrative no doubt in my mind that would
be the narrative out there but that's
not what it would imply with a Fed rate
cut from what we've seen that a
short-lived rally afterwards and it
wouldn't imply even what we actually saw
during the hiking cycle where it was
only 81 days later that the market
crashed right so like if hike equals
crash and then if cut equals blastoff
while hike led to 81 day crash would cut
equal 81 day rally you know what I mean
no do I think it's going to be 81 days
no absolutely not I have no clue how
many days it's going to be but I don't
think it implies years or a year and a
half or anything like that right and
like I've got this dominance stuff here
on the screen we talk about this all the
time that when this move happened this
is how shortlived the 2021 Bull Run was
and if you had something like that
happen just even from right here you
know it would still be this year and
it's all over you give yourself a little
bit of the benefit of that you say fine
nothing's going to happen in this market
we're not even going to see anything
break out till January of 2025 still you
know you've got until March right these
are hypotheticals I don't think any of
these things matter I'm picking these
particular dates but what I saying is
that if this breakdown structure
actually happens which it certainly
looks like it wants to and I'm betting
on it that it's going to I'm placing my
bets that way you fall all the way down
here and if you do it quickly that's it
that's the end of the market and like I
get it there should be like hey fed fed
hike bull market blah blah blah right
and I I don't really do that because I I
tried to think in advance before things
get too excited and how people are going
to be reacting like what we saw with the
altcoin market getting back to the 702
retracement that became irrational
Euphoria irrational exuberance extreme
risk-taking meme coins and all that
stuff and then we get in the thick of
that moment all original thoughts get
thrown out the window cuz the excitement
comes right and I I think if this ended
ended up happening in here we would
actually see retail finally arrive and
that was a crazy experience for me in
2021 because I was making YouTube videos
here in
2019 we went through all the trash of
2019 we go through c19 in 20120 we go
through right I mean the one of the
craziest times ever and then it takes us
getting out and it's not until we get
out that finally retail came and it was
just a an insane experience to be like
that to like have to go through
everything to get back up and then
retail comes in at the very top right
your uncle buying Dogecoin right family
members you haven't heard from Forever
are texting you saying Hey how do I buy
this what do you think of that that
doesn't happen till the very top and
like one last point on that topic of
like how fast things can happen and that
you know the the sentiment of this
Market can flip on a dime we have spent
time talking about looking at Sala from
back in 2020 and 2021 and looking at
other assets and one of them ISU I
originally brought this up on the
channel whenu was like 56 cents and even
till now it's still continuing to do
exactly that and if you even just
assumed s right here is like Salena
right here and escrapulate that out on
how much time elapsed before the top of
the market came in this is like the true
technical top of the market and even in
here it was only 130 days go out 130
days from now that's like four and a
half months you may be thinking oh yeah
but salanta kept going yeah but most of
the market didn't most of the market
topped back here when Elon Musk goes on
Saturday Night Live which was only 119
days xrp topped even earlier than that
which would have been 95 days right
Litecoin you name it this is the top of
the market for 90% of the market right
in here and that lands between 95 to 120
days post the this moment like we're
talking about here and so it's just
another one of those things to kind of
just keep in mind so a lot of the point
of this video is not necessarily to talk
about what it would be like if a top
came in it's more to focus on just those
kind of Confluence things that are
happening in here that structurally hey
you know we're looking for a lot of
these structures to play out this was
the finishing move this was the
finishing move in the crypto Market
that's where the altcoin market hits the
702 retracement how far back do we have
to retrace is what we're trying to
figure out in here and confluences that
we saw were going back to the 50e moving
average in both circumstances where
we've done that we've already gotten
back to the 50e moving average and a
Confluence of an actual event that took
place was that we hiked when we got back
to the 50e moving average and now we're
cutting as we've gotten back to the 50e
moving average and if things take off
they could be really fast and that's
something we always talk about but the
thing that would really be the thing
I'll be paying attention to and
communicating to is if this thing
finally breaks down which is the safety
tra dominance and if that breaks down
then it's like game on and then if we
get way down in here where it's like
around 65 to 68% or so then we go right
back to all that stuff again where
everybody's irrational everybody's YOLO
everybody's chastising bears and then
I'll be coming out and saying hey I
selling again and uh you you know how it
goes I I sure have a weird way of making
hype
videos that you know things are looking
good right things are looking positive
you know these are similar things that
have happened and we we've seen them in
before again this time is different uh
we've seen that so far we've seen that
with this altcoin Market that right
doesn't enter the banana Zone at the 702
which is what of course is what happened
back in 2020 and 21 as you get back
there and you you head on out this is a
different Market I fully believe it's a
different Market than what people are
used to I think that's why so many
people have been tricked all around this
thing when it comes to expecting 12K
back in 2022 and 2023 or why it's been 6
months since Bitcoin hit the all-time
high and hasn't broken out yet or why
the S&P NASDAQ and DOW are all in new
all-time Highs but the Russell just
can't get into any type of expansion or
any type of breath yet unlike 2013 2017
and 2021 that the game is different this
time I don't think it's entirely
impossible to navigate as I wouldn't
have these ideas if they weren't
something that we've seen before and
that the market would throw some
curveballs in there to what people would
think but if the rate Cuts lead to any
type of price action to happen in there
it's also interesting to look back and
say hey well what happened the opposite
way what happened when the hikes started
how long was the move that happened in
there was only 80 days and for those who
aren't used to that type of stuff just
kind of looking at it through this
perspective what does it look like for a
matter of 80 Days right even right in
here right that one 102 right we're
using these examples in here on swe
being like 95 to 20 this is what the
market did in 2021 in a matter of 102
days all of that so again I have a weird
way to make hype videos I don't know
what's wrong with me but I find this
very interesting that as we get back
here that's where we had a rate decision
that's where we have a rate decision and
we'll see how things go but ultimately I
think this is the thing that tells us
the story whenever things are reaching
their end and it doesn't appear that
we're anywhere near that yet but there
we go it is official fed funds rate has
been cut by half a percentage Point
there's been so many videos and news
articles saying this is pump time for
the market in the end that Russell I
still think is the deciding factor and
if this thing gets out we're probably in
for a world of excitement till then we
still just wait but so far there's been
some green so we'll see how it goes but
all right that's going to be it for this
one guys I hope that you're having a
wonderful day boy we had a lot of
viewers over there in the live stream
yesterday someone asked hey do you think
that many live viewers is a a bad sign
uh in markets in the morning we did that
a lot whenever we noticed an extreme
amount of viewership that was typically
a marker of a reversal we saw that with
xrp we saw that with Bitcoin back in
March and with the crypto Market that
when we were in those final days of
reaching that 702 retracement those
final days of Bitcoin viewership like
doubled and tripled during those days
typically a Fed meeting is going to have
about 3,000 4,000 viewers in it we were
knocking on 6000 door yesterday but I
really think that is just because it was
a massive pivotal it was a big moment a
year and two months since the pause
started that we all knew the cut was
coming I think it was just because it
was a historic moment in markets but
definitely exciting and thank you all
for tuning in and being there I
sincerely appreciate it and thank you
all for watching my videos and liking my
videos I'm of course watching everything
like a hawk right now looking to see if
we can get that Russell to break out
obviously big moment we'll see how it
goes otherwise if you guys are looking
for something else to do you of course
can check out my newsletter over here on
substack at blockchain backer . substack
do.com that's the most recent one
talking about all these things that are
different about this Market this time
and of course it's a little bit of a
play on words because a retail investor
the most common thing they say is this
time is different typically at the top
or typically at the bottom it's the most
dangerous words that anybody can
actually say in markets but what's
undeniable is all the data all the
behaviors all the things we can show to
pass Cycles to show how different this
one really is and it's truly a
fascinating time so this of course
includes an audio recording in here this
one's long it's 36 minutes of course I
personally audio record all of these
myself you can check out bcb backer.com
for over 40 videos and 11 hours of
content teaching you how to set up your
own charts and indicators within trading
View and coin Trader Pro also talking
about a lot of stuff like Elliot wave
theory woff accumulation the historical
behavior of the market and includes
downloadable PDFs that are supplemental
to a lot of the information in these
sections that's available over here at
BCB backer.com there of course are links
in the description this video to BCB
backer.com and the newsletter at
blockchain back. subs.com otherwise have
an absolutely wonderful day we're at
$63,000 Bitcoin and hopefully that
continues but all right that's it for
this one thank you so much for watching
if you could please like this video and
give it a thumbs up if you are new to
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go live as always this is not investment
advice and I am not a financial adviser
but if you ever need to pick me up or a
little bit of reassurance just remember
that the blockchain backers got your
back have a good one
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