Apple DOJ Lawsuit, Nike and Lululemon Pressure | The Pulse with Francine Lacqua 03/22
Summary
TLDRمرحبا بكم في 'النبض' مع فرانسين لاكوا، نناقش أسواق الأسهم التي تتجه نحو أفضل أسبوع في عام بعد اجتماعات المراكز المصرفية الكبرى، وتشير إلى أن التحول نحو السياسة الاسة قيد المسار. نتابع قضية آبل التي خسرت بقيمة أكثر من 2 مليارات دولار بعد أن تم مدنها من قِبَل العدالة التابعة للولايات المتحدة بسبب انتهاكات القوانين المتعلقة بالإستغلال الاحتيالي. Además، ننظر إلى تحركات السهم في باركت بعد توقعات بانخفاض الإيرادات بسبب إعادة ترتيب عرض المنتجات. نختبر الأحداث الرئيسية في الأحداث المالية هذه الاسبوعية.
Takeaways
- 📈 تشير الأحداث الأخيرة إلى أن الأسهم تتجه لأفضل أسبوع في عام بعد مؤتمرات البنوك المركزية تشير إلى أن التحول نحو السياسة النقدية أكثر ليونة قيد التنفيذ.
- 🍏 APPLE تخسر أكثر من 200 مليار دولار في القيمة السوقية بعد أن تم محاكمةها من قبل الإدارة العدلية الأميركية بسبب انتهاك القوانين反垄断.
- 👟 NIKE تتراجع في السهم المبكر من البورصة بسبب أن تكون العلامة التجارية الكبرى للملابس الرياضية تستعد لإعادة ترتيب ما تقدمه من منتجات.
- 💹 تظهر المؤشرات الاقتصادية الأوروبية أن السياسات النقدية الواعدة قد أدت إلى تعافي في الثقة التجارية، مع زيادة مؤشر الثقة التجارية الألماني إلى 87.8.
- 📉 تواجه NIKE وLULULEMON تحديات في البيع بسبب التغييرات الفعلية في الطلب الاستهلاكي للملابس الرياضية.
- 🤔 يُعتقد أن ال/apple/ في الأوروبية قد تغيرت القوانين، والآن يُنظر فيما إذا كانت Apple قد تفاعلت بشكل صحيح مع هذه التغييرات القانونية، خاصة في ما يتعلق بخدمات الدفع.
- 🌐 يُناقش التأثير الاقتصادي الكلي للصراع بين أوكرانيا وروسيا على العالم، مع النظر في الإجراءات الحكومية والمصرفية لمواجهة الصراع الاقتصادي.
- 🇪🇺 يُناقش الوضع الاقتصادي لليونان وتأثير الدعم المالي للأوكراني على الاقتصاد الأوروبي، مع نقاش حول الضرورية وتأثير الدعم المالي على النمو وال.inflation.
- 🛑 يُطرح في النقاش الحاجة إلى تقييد الوارد من الحبوب الروسية إلى الأوروبية بسبب الصراع، مع نقاش حول التأثير المحتمل على الاقتصاد الأوروبي.
- 🇬🇧 يُناقش在英国脱欧的影响، مع التركيز على التأثير السلبي على الاقتصاد البريطاني والسوق، واحتمالات إعادة النظر في الانضمام إلى الاتحاد الأوروبي.
- 📊 يُظهر التحليل الاقتصادي للولايات المتحدة أن الدعم المالي للأوكراني قد أدى إلى تقليل الدعم المالي للأوكراني، مما قد يكون له تأثير على أسعار النفط والنفط.
Q & A
ما هي التغييرات الرئيسية التي أشارت إليها في السياسة السانطة الأوروبية؟
-تم الإشارة إلى تغير في السياسة السانطة الأوروبية من السياسة التقليدية الصارمة إلى السياسة الأكثر ليونة، مما يشير إلى توقعات تخفيف السياسة النقدية.
لماذا أدى تصاعد الأسهم إلى أداء أفضل في الأسبوع المالي؟
-تصاعد الأسهم يعود إلى توقعات تخفيف السياسة النقدية من قبل البنوك المركزية، مما يحفّز ال Appetite للمستثمرين ويشجعهم على الدخول إلى الأسواق.
ما هي القضية الرئيسية التي تواجهها شركة Apple في القضية القضائية؟
-شركة Apple تواجه قضية قضائية من قبل إدارة العدل في الولايات المتحدة بسبب تهميش المنافسة في السوق، مما يشمل قضايا تتعلق بمنتجاتها مثل Apple Watch وخدمات الدفع.
لماذا تراجعت أسهم NIKE في البورصة المبكرة؟
-أسهم NIKE تراجعت بسبب توقعات الشركة أن الدخل سيتراجع بسبب إعادة ترتيب عرض منتجها لتناسب ما يريده العملاء.
ما هي التطورات الرئيسية التي تؤثر على الأسواق الأوروبية؟
-تتضمن التطورات الرئيسية التي تؤثر على الأسواق الأوروبية توقعات تخفيف السياسة النقدية وتطورات القضايا القانونية مثل قضية Apple، بالإضافة إلى التطورات الحكومية مثل الدعم المالي للأوكرانيا.
ماذا يشير إلى توقعات النمو في الثقة التجارية الألمانية؟
-تشير توقعات النمو في الثقة التجارية الألمانية إلى تحسن الأوضاع الاقتصادية التي قد تكون م垫垫ة ل Markets و可能会导致更多的 استثمارات.
كيف يمكن أن تؤثر الدعم المالي للأوكرانيا على الاقتصاد الأوروبي؟
-الدعم المالي للأوكرانيا يمكن أن يساعد على تخفيف الضغط الاقتصادي على الأوكرانيا ويشجع على الاستقرار في المنطقة، مما يمكن أن يعكس بشكل إيجابي على الاقتصاد الأوروبي.
ما هي العوامل الرئيسية التي تؤثر على الاستثمارات في الأسواق الأوروبية في الوقت الحالي؟
-تتضمن العوامل الرئيسية التي تؤثر على الاستثمارات في الأسواق الأوروبية التوقعات المتعلقة بالسياسات النقدية وتطورات الشؤون السياسية والقضايا القانونية للشركات الكبرى.
ما هي التطورات المتوقعة في السياسة النقدية للbanks الأوروبية في المستقبل القريب؟
-التطورات المتوقعة تشير إلى تخفيف السياسة النقدية من قبل الbanks الأوروبية، مما قد يؤدي إلى زيادة ال_activity في الأسواق المالية.
كيف يمكن أن يؤثر تصاعد ال金利 على الاستثمارات في العقارات؟
-تصاعد ال金利 قد يؤدي إلى زيادة التكلفة الفعلية للتمويل، مما قد يؤثر سلبًا على الاستثمارات في العقارات.
ما هي التطورات المتوقعة لأسعار الفائدة في المستقبل؟
-التوقعات تشير إلى أن تصاعد ال金利 قد يستمر، لكن التغييرات الفعلية ستعتمد على القرارات الحكومية والمصرفية.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Optimism After Central Bank Meetings
The opening paragraph of the script introduces the show 'The Pulse' with Francine Lacqua, highlighting the positive trend in stock markets due to central bank meetings signaling a shift towards looser policies. It also mentions significant financial events such as Apple's lawsuit by the U.S. Justice Department and Nike's premarket share decline due to product realigning strategies. The discussion emphasizes the anticipation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to the bullish market sentiment.
🌐 Global Economic Insights and Currency Fluctuations
This paragraph delves into the global economic landscape, discussing the dollar's strength and its impact on various currencies. It addresses China's economic policy, the potential effects of monetary easing on the yuan, and the challenges faced by Chinese policymakers. The conversation also touches on emerging market investments, the performance of gold and Bitcoin, and the influence of central banks on these assets.
🛍️ Nike's Sales Outlook and Market Strategy
The script discusses Nike's decision to realign its product offerings, which has led to a decline in its stock value. It includes an analysis of the luxury retail sector, with mentions of Gucci's parent company's disappointing performance and Micron's semiconductor sales. The paragraph also explores the concept of momentum investing and the potential risks of a crowded trade in the current market environment.
💼 EU Economic Outlook and Defense Funding
The paragraph features an interview with the President of the Eurogroup, Pascal Donohue, discussing the European Union's economic growth and inflation expectations. It touches on the challenges faced by Europe due to its proximity to the war and the efforts to support Ukraine through funding from frozen Russian assets. The conversation also covers the potential changes to the European Investment Bank's role in defense funding.
📉 Apple's Legal Challenges and Market Response
This section focuses on Apple's legal battle with U.S. regulators over antitrust law violations. It outlines the accusations against Apple, including dominating the market with its products like the Apple Watch and Apple Pay, and the company's defense against the lawsuit. The discussion also includes Apple's scrutiny in Europe and the potential implications for the tech giant.
🏦 German Economic Indicators and Consumer Behavior
The script presents an analysis of Germany's business confidence index and its implications for the economy. It discusses the factors contributing to the stabilization of the German economy, including consumer spending, wage growth, and the impact of uncertainty on consumer behavior. The paragraph also examines the manufacturing sector's weakness and the potential benefits of the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts.
🌾 EU's Economic Strategies Amidst Global Conflicts
This paragraph explores the European Union's economic strategies in response to the global economic conflict, particularly focusing on the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. It discusses the legal and political considerations of seizing assets, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, and the potential effects of tariffs on Russian grain imports to the EU.
🇪🇺 Brexit's Long-term Impact on the UK Economy
The script reflects on the long-term effects of Brexit on the UK economy, noting the market's consistent signaling that Brexit was a step backward for the country. It discusses the public's sentiment towards rejoining the EU and the political avoidance of addressing the EU relationship during the election year. The conversation also considers the lessons learned from populism and the potential for more centrist politics.
📊 Sportswear Market Dynamics and Corporate Adjustments
The final paragraph discusses the challenges faced by sportswear giants like Nike and Adidas in the changing retail landscape. It highlights the shift in consumer preferences from loungewear to more fashionable activewear and the impact of niche brands on the market share of established companies. The discussion also touches on the strategic adjustments made by these corporations to revitalize their product pipelines and maintain relevance in the competitive market.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡الأسهم
💡البنك الفيدرالي
💡Apple
💡NIKE
💡السياسة النقدية الhazier
💡الدولار
💡البنك الياباني للتنمية
💡الثقة الصناعية
💡الدعم المالي للأوكرانيا
Highlights
Stocks are on track for their best week in a year following central bank meetings indicating a shift toward looser policies.
Apple loses over $2 trillion in value after being sued by the U.S. Justice Department for antitrust violations.
Nike shares fall as the company realigns its product offering in response to market changes.
European markets map shows a great week for stocks with a pivot toward looser policy.
Investor appetite rekindled after the Federal Reserve meeting, signaling hope for U.S. policymakers to deliver interest rate cuts.
Alphabet and Apple stocks down, reflecting market responses to policy changes and corporate performance.
Dollar climbing 0.4%, reflecting the impact of U.S. policy on global currency markets.
Japan's inflation accelerates to the quickest pace in four months, affecting yen's value.
Germany's business confidence index slightly better than expected, indicating some positive economic movement.
Discussions on Germany's economic strategies and the potential impact on the European economy.
Emerging markets experiencing strong flows, with investors showing selective interest in single-country exposures.
Gold and Bitcoin's market performance, with gold touching $22 and Bitcoin trading around $66,000.
Analysis of the forces behind the rallies in gold and Bitcoin, and the expectation for rate cuts.
NVIDIA's performance and its impact on the tech market, with a focus on momentum strategies and stock market trends.
Nike and Lululemon's lowered sales outlook, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market demands.
E.U. leaders' negotiations on support for Ukraine using profits from frozen Russian assets.
Apple's antitrust lawsuit and its implications for the tech giant's market dominance.
German business confidence rises, suggesting a potential stabilization in the economy.
Reddit's successful IPO, marking a significant moment in the tech industry.
FedEx's earnings beat expectations, indicating a positive trend for the shipping industry.
Discussion on the state of the sportswear industry with a focus on consumer trends and market fragmentation.
LVMH's reshuffling and the potential implications for the luxury market and company leadership.
Transcripts
ANNOUNCER: THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE:
WELL, GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. WELCOME TO "THE PULSE."
I’M FRANCINE LACQUA HERE IN LONDON WITH THE CONVERSATIONS
THAT MATTER. HERE’S WHAT’S COMING UP ON
TODAY’S PROGRAM. STOCKS ARE HEADING FOR THEIR
BEST WEEK IN A YEAR AFTER A RAFT OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS
INDICATE A PIVOT TOWARD A LOOSER POLICY IS ON TRACK.
DOUBLE TROUBLE FOR APPLE. THEY LOSE MORE THAN 00
BILLION IN VALUE AFTER BEING SUED BY THE U.S.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT FOR VIOLATIONS.
PLUS NIKE SHARES FALL FURTHER PREMARKET AS THE WORLD’S
LARGEST SPORTSWEAR RETAILER LOOKS TO REALIGN ITS PRODUCT
OFFERING. IT IS FRIDAY. WE HAVE MADE IT.
A VERY BUSY MARATHON-LIKE WEEK FOR CENTRAL BANKS.
LETT GET STRAIGHT TO THE EUROPEAN MARKETS MAP.
STOCKS V HAD A GREAT WEEK. LET’S NOT MINUTES OUR WORDS.
THEY HAD A GREAT WEEK SO FAR. A PIVOT TOWARD LOOSER POLICY IS
ON TRACK. INVESTOR APPETITE HAS BEEN
REKINDLED SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTER THE MEETING FROM THE FED
FUELING HOPE THAT U.S. POLICY MAKERS WILL DELIVER
THREE INTEREST RATE CUTS THIS WEEK.
ALPHABET WAS DOWN YESTERDAY. APPLE WAS ALSO DOWN.
FOR THE MOMENT, A LOTT EUROPEAN STOCKS ARE IN A WAIT AND SEE
SITUATION. I’LL LOOKING AT THE DOLLAR
CLIMBING 0.4%. U.S. FUTURES, AFTER THE PRETTY
INCREDIBLE WEEK THAT THEY HAVE HAD, MAYBE THEY PAUSE FOR A
LITTLE BIT OF REFLECTION. THIS WAS ALSO S & B WEEK AND
BOJ WEEK. LET’S GET STRAIGHT TO THOSE
FUTURES IN THE U.S. A LITTLE BIT ON THE UPSIDE BUT
REALLY NOT CHANGED BY THAT MUCH. YEN LITTLE CHANGED.
TRADING AROUND 152 PER DOLLAR AS JAPAN’S INFLATION
ACCELERATED TO THE QUICKEST PACE IN FOUR MONTHS.
PROBABLE THE MOST INTERESTING STORY GAINING SOME .6%.
BREAKING NEWS. THE DATA ALWAYS IMPORTANT.
THIS IS WHAT PROBABLY WILL DRIVE MARKETS FORWARD IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND MONTHS. GERMANY BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
INDEX COMING IN AT 87.8. THE STIMWAS 86.
A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN EXPECTED.
WE’LL SPEAK TO THE PRESIDENT. KIND OF DISAPPOINTING.
INTERESTING TO GET HIS PERSPECTIVE ON WHAT GERMANY
NEEDS TO DO NOW TO KICK START ITS ECONOMY.
GERMANY AND ALSO THE U.S., WE’RE JOINED BY A CHIEF
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST FOR ISHARES AT BLACKROCK.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. WHAT A WEEK.
WE HAVE MADE IT TO FRIDAY. WE STILL HAVE A WHOLE TRADING
DAY AHEAD. IT IS INCREDIBLE. YOU HAVE THE S & B.
IT SURPRISE A LOT OF PEOPLE. EVEN THE BOJ.
EVERYTHING WAS WELL TELEGRAPHED. IT IS THE FED GIVING HOPE WITH
THIS RISK-ON TEUD ATTITUDE.
>> TAKING THE CUE FROM THE BOJ FOR A SECOND, WE HAVE SEEN THE
EXIT FROM THE NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE POLICY BUT IT IS REALLY
INTERESTING THAT EVEN THOUGH THEY TELEGRAPHED IT REALLY WELL
AND THEY HAVE TECHNICALLY EXITED THE CONTROL POLICY AS
WELL, THE BACKSTOP HAS NOT BEEN TAKEN AWAY.
MARKETS HAVE RUN WITH THAT. WE’RE SEEING THAT POSITIVE RISK
FOR MARKETS AND JAPANESE ECK TREASURIES ONE OF OUR KEY
OVERWEIGHTS. FRANCINE: IS THERE A CONCERN THAT
ACTUALLY SO, THE BOJ HAS HIKED LAST. THIS IS NOT A LIFTOFF.
THIS IS NOT A SEE SEA CHANGE.
>> THIS IS WHY I PUT THE BOJ IN A DIFFERENT BUCKET.
THIS IS THE END OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE POLICY AND NOT
THE START OF THE SEEKLE. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FED AND
EVEN TO BOE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, IF WE ZOOM OUT THE
PICTURE IS THIS IS A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR RISK ASSETS
BECAUSE WE’RE RIMPLEGGING CLOSER TO RATE CUTS EVEN IF
THEY ARE NOT HAPPENING THIS WEEK OR TOMORROW.
THIS IS NOT THE END OF INFLATION VOLATILE IF I.
WE HAD A COUPLE OF VOLATILE NUMBERS IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY.
WHEN I THINK ABOUT THE TAA RISK ON AND THE SAA GETTING MORE
DYNAMIC BECAUSE OF THIS VOLATILITY AND MACRO. FRANCINE:
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. CHINA KIND OF LEFT RIGHT AND
CENTER. DIDN’T REALLY MOVE MARKETS
EXCEPT FOR TODAY.
>> ONE THING THAT WAS REALLY INTERESTING IS THAT OBVIOUSLY
WE’RE SEEING DOLLAR STRENGTH EVERYWHERE, BUT THE U.N.
SPECIFICALLY WAS PARTLY TRIGGERED BY THE CURRENCY AT
THE OPEN MEANING IT SIGNALED TO MARKETS IT WAS WILLING TO
TOLERATE A BIT MORE WEAKNESS. PART OF THAT THEY ARE SEEING
DOLLAR STRENGTH ALL AROUND THE WORLD.
THEY UNDERSTAND IT IS NOT LIKE FIX THE CURRENCY FROM ITS TRUE
VALUE FOR A LONG TIME. THAT IS WHAT WE ARE KIND OF
SEEING THE WEAKER U.N. TODAY. ON THE BACK OF SOME CONCERNING
EARNINGS. FRANCINE: BASICALLY TRADERS, YOU KNOW,
SAY LOOK, THERE IS WEAK CORPORATE GUIDANCE AND BEIJING
AT THE SAME TIME IS RELAXING ITS GRIP ON THE CURRENCY.
WHAT AM I LEFT WITH? ARE THOSE SOME OF THE QUESTIONS
THAT TRADERS ARE ASKING?
>> YEAH, I THINK CHINESE POLICY MAKERS ARE IN A BIND HERE.
THEY HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS THERE
IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CUT.
THE PROBLEM IS IF YOU’RE EASING MONETARY POLICY TO PROP UP
GROWTH THEN NATURALLY YOU YOUR CURRENCY WILL DECLINE.
CHINA HAS ALWAYS BEEN QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE WITH TOO MUCH
CURRENCY WEAKNESS AND TOO MUCH OUTBLOW THES AND I THINK THEY
ARE BACK IN THAT POSITION WHERE THEY ARE HAVING TO GRAPPLE WITH
THOSE FORCES TAME. FRANCINE: THERE IS A LOT GOING ON THIS
WEEK. CHINA LEFT, RIGHT AND CENTER.
INTERESTING WEEKS WITH WHERE YOU UNDERSTAND BEIJING IS
TRYING TO DO SOMETHING OTHER THAN WE THINK THEY WERE.
>> WHEN I PUT IT INTO THE CONTEXT OF OUR PORTFOLIO VIEWS,
THE EMERGING MARKETS, ONE THING WE’RE SEEING WITH DEVELOPED
MARKETS AND RISK ON AND RISK APPETITE TO ADD TO EQUITY
POSITIONS IN PLACES LIKE TO U.S. AND JAPAN.
WE’RE SEEING LUKEWARM SENTIMENT FROM INVESTORS AND WE SEE THIS
IN SOME OF THE CLIENTS’ CONVERSATIONS THAT WE’RE HAVING.
THERE IS SELECTIVE -- WHEN I LOOK AT THE FLOW PICTURE, VERY
STRONG FLOW MONTHS FOR EMERGING MARKETS.
MOSTLY IN SINGLE COUNTRY EXPOSURES.
THINKING ABOUT MORE PRECISION EXPOSURES OPPOSED TO THE BROAD
BUCKET. FRANCINE: THE OTHER TWO STORIES HAPPENING
WITH IN THE WEEK IS GOLD TOUCHING $22 AND BITCOIN TRADE
AROUND $66,000. SO WE HAD THAT RECORD HIGH 10
DAYS AGO AND IT IS NOW NOT DOING AS WELL.
WHAT ARE SOME OF FORCES? IS IT ALL TO DO WITH CENTRAL
BANKS OR POSITIONING AHEAD OF SOMETHING?
>> I THINK THAT BEHIND THOSE TWO RALLIES IS PROBABLY THE
EXPECTATION FOR RATE CUTS. IT IS KIND OF INTERESTING AFTER
GOLD IS TRADING. BITCOIN HAS AN EXTREME RUN UP.
WE’RE SEEING A BIT OF A PULLBACK IN SENTIMENT AND WE’RE
ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE BITCOINETF’S.
THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOVE.
IT IS ALWAYS HARD TO TELL WITH CRYPTO. FRANCINE:
FEELS LIKE OPPOSING FORCES BUT TAME IT IS PART OF THE SAME
MOVEMENT.
>> I’M GOING TO BE MORE CONTRARIAN HERE.
LOOK AT THE GOLD-SILVER RATIO. GOLD HAS BEEN ALL ABOUT GOLD
AND WE LIKE GOLD. WE HAVE BEEN QUITE POSITIVE ON
IT. WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE FLOWS EVEN
THOUGH WE’RE POSITIVE ON THE PRICE ACTION. IT IS A BIT UNDER
POSITIONED. IF YOU LOOK AT SILVER THAT,
GOLD-SILVER RATIO HAS HIT RECORD LEVELS AT ONE POINT IN
RECENT WEEKS. SILVER HAS BEEN LAGGING.
ONE THING WE’RE SEEING IS SOME CATCHUP, RELATIVE VALUE TRADES
ON SILVER RELATIVE TO GOLD. SOME OF THE FUNDAMENTALS THAT
DRIVE GOLD ALSO DRIVE SILVER BUT IT HASN’T CAUGHT UP.
FRANCINE: IS IT JUST AN INFLATION PLAY?
I’M UNCLEAR WHAT GOLD IS DOING NOW.
>> EXACTLY. GOLD TENDS TO BE MORE OF A SAFE
HAVEN. IT HAS BECOME MORE STEABL BECAUSE OF MORE STECKY
PURCHASES FROM CENTRAL BANKS. SILVER A MIX.
IT IS A PRECIOUS METAL. IT HAS AN INDUSTRIAL USAGE AS
WELL. YOU COULD THINK OF IT AS A TRADE WHERE YOU PUTTING AN
UPSIDE RISK ON THE WORLD ECONOMY OUTSIDE HEDGE WITH
SILVER. MOSTLY A TECHNICAL TRADE IF YOU
BELIEVE IN TECHNICALS BECAUSE IN RATIO LOOKS TOO STEEP.
FRANCINE: DOES ANYONE NOT BELIEVE IN
TECHNICALS? I’M KIDDING. WHEN YOU LOOK AT INDUSTRY, IT
WAS A BIG WEEK FOR LUXURY BECAUSE WE HAD THE COMPANY THAT
OWNS GUCCI DISAPPOINT. YOU HAVE THIS MICRON FLYING OFF
THE SHELVES GIVING US HOPE WITH SEMICONDUCTORS IN GENERAL.
ALPHABET AND APPLE BEING SMASHED.
>> IT IS INTERESTING. WE USED TO THINK OF THE
MAGNIFICENT 7 AS A GROUP. WE HAVE SEEN DIVERSION WITHIN
THAT MANAGE ANY SEPTEMBER SEVEN. IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING TO
OBSERVE NVIDIA, KIND OF FUELING SO MUCH ENTHUSIASM AND STILL
GOING UP FURTHER ON THE BACK OF THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS ABOUT
SOME NEW CHIPS. I THINK IT HAS BEEN KIND OF
INTERESTING. IF YOU LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET
AND THE MOMENTUM STRATEGY WHERE YOU’RE JUST KIND OF BUYING THE
PAST WINNERS FROM THE PAST 12 MONTHS, THAT HAS BEEN GOING UP
LIKE A STRAIGHT LINE. I THINK AS THE SIGN KIND OF HOW
POSITIVE SENTIMENT IS. EVERYONE IS RIDING THE SAME
TRAIN HERE WHICH ALWAYS RAISES THE QUESTION.
IS IT A TOO CROWDED TRADE AT THIS POINT? FRANCINE:
NOW LET’S LOOK PREMARKETS SPOUTS WEAR BRAPPEDS, NIKE AND
LULULEMON DROPPING AFTER THEY BOTH LOWERED THEIR SALES
OUTLOOK. NIKE SAYS IT EXPECTS REVENUE TO
FALL AS IT SHUFFLES OUT OLD MERCHANDISE.
WE’LL INTEREST B TALKING TO PASCAL DONAHUE AND IRELAND’S
MINISTER FOR PUBLIC EXTENDTURE AND REFORM.
THAT EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION IS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
FRANCINE: E E.U. LEADERS CONTINUE TO MEET IN
BRUSSELS TODAY. NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUING OVER
BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF SUPPORT FOR YOU CRANE USING
PROFITS FROM FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS.
LET’S GO LIVE TO THE SUMMIT IN BRUSSELS. OVER TO YOU.
>> FRAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE’RE JOINED NOW BY THE
PRESIDENT OF THE EURO PASCAL DONAHUE.
HE IS ABOUT TO SPEAK WITH E.U. LEADERS ALONGSIDE MADAM LAGARDE.
ALL THAT I SPEAK TO PARTICULARLY THE AUTO
INDUSTRY, THERE IS A LOT OF CONCERN IN 2024.
WHAT ARE WE EXPECTED ON GROWTH IN EUROPE PARTICULARLY
INFLATION?
>> WE CAN EXPECT GROWTH AND INFLATION TO CONTINUE TO FALL.
THE GROWTH IS NOT AS HIGH AS WE WOULD WANT.
EVEN THOUGH WE DO HAVE GROWTH, ALONGSIDE OUR GOAL TO HAVE
RECORD LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT. WE HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE
UNCERTAINTY AND RESCUES THAT ARE CONFRONTING EUROPE AT THE
MOMENT. MAINLY BECAUSE WE ARE SO CLOSE
TO THE WAR. WE ARE STILL IN A PHASE OF
GROWTH ALBEIT LOW GROWTH.
>> DO YOU THINK IT ACTUALLY COULD HAVE A LONGER TAIL?
>> I BELIEVE WE’LL GET TO 2%. E I BELIEVE THE RIGHT DECISIONS
ARE BEING TAKEN. ON A MONETARY AND POLICY LEVEL.
>> I WANT TO TALK ABOUT WHAT WE’RE HERE TO TALK ABOUT WITH
THE E.U. LEADERS. AS THE PRESIDENT OF THE E.U.
GROUP FEW KNOW THE EUROPEANS AND FINANCE MINISTERS AS WELL
AS YOU DO. WILL WE GET AN AGREEMENT TODAY?
DO YOU THINK THERE IS A WILL THERE?
WHERE ARE I THINK IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET TO THAT
AGREEMENT. THE COMMISSION PUBLISHED A
PROPOSAL ON THAT THIS WEEK AND HAS TO GO TO THE EUROPEAN YOU
AND BE CONSIDERED WITH MANY MEETINGS THAT WILL TAKE PLACE.
THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO DO. THERE IS MOMENTUM BEHIND US.
I BELIEVE PROGRESS WILL BE MADE. WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS THIS
PROPOSAL WILL GO TO THE MEMBER STEPS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.
EFFORTS WILL BE MADE TO CONTINUE TO COORDINATE THIS
ISSUE ON AN INTERNATIONAL LEVEL. >> WE HAD A PROPOSAL OUT OF THE
UNITED STATES ON THE SO-CALLED FREEDOM BONDS LOOKING AT HOW TO
DEAL WITH THE FUTURE PROFITS AND POTENTIALLY PACKAGE THEM TO
FRONT LOAN MUCH LARGER QUANTITIES.
>> THIS IS THE KIND OF ISSUE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE PROPOSAL WITH THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION.
I DO BELIEVE THERE IS A RECOGNITION REGARD PG
IMPORTANCE OF THIS ISSUE BUT AS I SAID, THE PROPOSAL HAS ONLY
JUST BEEN PUBLISHED. THIS PROPOSAL THAT NEED TO BE I
BELIEVE IS LEGALLY SOUND AND NOW GOVERNMENTS NEED A LITTLE
BIT OF TIME TO RESPOND BACK TO US.
THE KEY POINT IS THAT PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE AND WE NEED TO
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT HOW THIS WILL BE COORDINATED ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL AND ECONOMIC COMMUNITY.
>> IT IS FRONT AND CENTER FOR THE FINANCE MINISTERS AN E.U.
LEADERS. IS THIS A PIPE DREAM OR IS
THERE A PATH TO THIS?
>> IT HAS BEGUN HERE TODAY. WE HAVE HEARD A NUMBER OF
MEMBER TAKING ITS MAKE THE CASE FOR US.
I THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS A
CONSENSUS ON THE MATTER HOWEVER, THE EXPENDITURE HAS
BEEN INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 18 MONTHS.
A FEW WEEKS AGO HERE IN THIS BUILDING, PRIME MINISTERS
REACHED AGREEMENT ON A 50 BILLION EURO FUNDING PACKAGE
FOR YOU CRANE OVER THE NEXT NUMBER OF YEARS, SOME OF WHICH
IS RELATED TO THOSE EVENTS. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE NEED TO
BUILD UP. THAT IS HAPPENING.
>> A QUICK WORD ON THEEIB. DO YOU THINK THERE WILL BE A
RULE CHANGE? DOES THERE NEED TO BE MORE
MONEY ALLOCATED TO DEFENSE?
>> I UNDERSTANDEIB ARE LOOKING AT THIS ISSUE.
THE NEW PRESIDENT IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB LEADING THEEIB.
THEY WILL BE LOOKING AT WHAT THEIR ROLE IS IN RELATION TO
THIS AND THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED BY PRIME MINISTERS AND FINANCE
MINISTERS TO CONSIDER THIS ISSUE AND REPORT BACK TO THEM
SHORTLY.
>> YOU HELD ON TO THIS POSITION WITH THE IRISH GOVERNMENT.
DO YOU SUPPORT SIMON HARRIS FOR PARTY LEADER?
>> OF COURSE I DO. I HAVE KNOWN SIMON FOR MANY,
MANY, MANY YEARS. I BELIEVE HE HAS ALL THE
QUALITIES THAT WILL NEAL HIM TO BE A VERY, VERY SUCCESSFUL
LEADER AND WILL ALU HIM TO BE AN EXCELLENT -- WE HAVE HAD A
VERY DRAMATIC WEEK. I BELIEVE HE HAS DONE A
PHENOMENAL JOB. AS THE LEADER OF OUR PARTY.
I WISH HIM EVERY SUCCESS AND EVERY GOOD WISH IN THE TIME
AHEAD. I VERY MUCH LOOK FORWARD IN
WORKING WITH HIM.
>> THERE WILL BE A CANDIDATE RESHUFFLE.
WILL YOU CONTINUE TO SERVE IN YOUR POSITION IN THE CABINET?
>> I OF COURSE HOPE TO CONTINUE WITH MY WORK BUT MANY MOMENTS
LIKE IN IN THE PAST, I’M NOT GOING TO MAKE HIS LIFE ANY MORE
DIFFICULT BY MAKING STATEMENTS. OF COURSE I WANT TO CONTINUE
WITH MY WORK BUT I RECOGNIZE IT IS HIS DECISION.
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME HERE AND TALKING IRISH
POLITICS AND OF COURSE THE VERY COMPLICATED ON THE VERY BEST
ISSUES THAT CONFRONT EUROPEAN LEADERS HERE.
FUNDING EUROPEAN DEFENSE AND GETTING THE FUNDS CRITICALLY TO
UKRAINE. FRANCINE: AS ALWAYS, THANK YOU SO MUCH.
GREAT INTERRUE THERE WITH THE EURO GROUP PRESIDENT.
WE’LL HAVE PLENTY MORE ON UKRAINE AND PLENTY MORE FROM
BRUSSELS ALSO COMING UP. APPLE WE’LL HAVE THE LATEST ON
THE TECH GIANT AND ITS MOUNDING PROBLEM WITH REGULATORS.
THAT IS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪
FRANCINE: WELL, APPLE SHARES ARE NARROWLY
HIGHER IN PREMARKET TRADING. THEY LOST MORE THAN 00
BILLION IN VALUE YESTERDAY. U.S. REGULATORS ARE SUING IT FOR
VIOLATING ANTITRUST LAWS ACCUSING THEM OF DOMINATING THE
MARKET. APPLE SAYS THE LAWSUIT IS WRONG.
JOINING US IS ALEX WEBB. WHAT EXACTLY IS APPLE ACCUSED
OF?
>> SQUEEZING OUT COMPETITION ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FRONTS.
THINGS LIKE THE APPLE WATCH. IT DOESN’T LET OTHER SMART
WATCHES INTERACT QUITE AS EASILY WITH THE IPHONE AS THE I
WATCH DOES ITSELF. MASS JAGES FROM GOOGLE’S
ANDROID IT APPEARS AS A GREEN MESSAGE RATHER THAN A BLUE
MESSAGE AND THE BIG ONE IS PAYMENTS.
WHETHER OF COURSE IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A PAYMENT THERE IS
APPLE PAY BUT YOU CAN’T SAY USE IT ON YOUR IPHONE OR ANY OTHER
COMPETING SERVICE. THESE ARE THE SORT OF THINGS
THEY ARE HONING IN ON. FRANCINE: WAS THE DODGE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE AND WHAT IS IT GOING
TO LEAD TO?
>> I THINK THE SCOPE OF IT. THE NUMBER OF THINGS, IS
PROBABLE MORE COMPLETE THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE HAD ANTICIPATED.
THEY HAVE GONE FOR A PRETTY BROAD PALAT.
THERE MIGHT BE A CERTAIN DEGREE OF HEDGING THEIR BETS.
YEAH, IT IS SORT OF THE BROADEST KIND OF FULL FRONTAL
ASSAULT AS IT WERE ON THE KIND OF SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE EVER
SEEN. FRANCINE: THEY ARE FACING SCRUTINY IN
EUROPE.
>> THE INTERESTING THING IN EUROPE OF COURSE IS IN THE U.S.
THEY ARE ARGUING THIS ON THE BASIS OF THE CURRENT LAW.
IN EUROPE, THEY HAVE CHANGED THE LAW AND NOW IT IS LOOKING
AT WHETHER APPLE ACTUALLY ENGAGES WITH THESE LAW CHANGES
CORRECTLY. THERE ARE SOMAKIZATIONS THAT IT
HASN’T. OF COURSE APPLE DENIES THIS.
PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO PAYMENTS THROUGH OTHER SERVICES.
FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. AS ALWAYS, ALEX WEBB.
THIS IS A STORY I HAVE FEELING WE’LL TALK ABOUT A LOT.
IT WILL RUN AND RUN. ALEX IS LIKE OH, YEAH.
COMING UP, GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE RISES.
WE’LL GET THE LATEST ON THE LATEST SURVEY.
AGAIN, A LOT OF THE FOCUS THIS WEEK HAS BEEN FOR EXAMPLE ON
THE BOJ. IT HIKED AT LAST. WE HAVE A
GREAT BLOOMBERG OPINION PIECE SAYING THIS DOES NOT
NECESSARILY MEAN WITH THIS RATE HIKE THERE IS A NEW CYCLE THAT
STARTS. THE OTHER BIG STORY THIS WEEK
IS OF COURSE THE FED, WE HAVE HAD MARKETS THAT HAVE BEEN MUCH
MORE RISK ON THAN IN THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE WEEKS.
THE U.S., YOU CAN SEE TWO YEAR, 460 AND THE 30 IS AT 4.41.
HAVE PLENTY MORE ON MARKETS AND GOLD AND BITCOIN TOO.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪
FRANCINE: STOCKS HEADING FOR THEIR BEST
WEEK OF THE YEAR AFTER A RAFT OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS
INDICATE THAT A PIVOT TOWARD LOOSER POLICY IS ON TRACK.
DOUBLE TROUBLE FOR APPLE. THE IPHONE MAKER LOSES MORE
THAN 00 BILLION IN VALUE AFTER BEING SUED BY THE U.S.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT DUE TO ANTI-TRUST VIOLATIONS.
NIKE SHARES FALL FURTHER PREMARKET AS THE WORLD’S
LARGEST SPORTSWEAR RETAILER LOOKS TO REALIGN ITS PRODUCT
OFFERING. GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE.
WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I’M FRANCINE LACQUA HERE IN
LONDON. GERMAN BUSINESS HAS COME IN
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CONFIDENCE INDEX RISING TO 87.8.
I’M JOINED BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE INSTITUTE.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR SPEAKING TO US.
ON THE BACK OF THESE NUMBERS FINALLY A LITTLE BIT OF
ENCOURAGING NEWS. HOW WOULD YOU QUANTIFY THIS
NEWS? IS IT SURPRISING? A TURNING POINT OR WAIT AND SEE?
>> IT IS PROBABLY A REAL TURNING POINT BUT THE SECOND
INCREASE WE HAVE SEEN. WE HAD ONE IN FEBRUARY AND NOW
THIS. I WOULD SAY IT IS A STABILIZE
IETION AND AFTER THE -- STABILIZATION.
I THINK THIS IS COMFORTABLE WITH MOST FORECASTS THAT ARE
SAYING IT IS GOING TO BE A STAGNATING ECONOMY IN GERMANY
IN 24 BUT NOT A SHRINKING ECONOMY. IT IS A STABILIZATION.
OF COURSE WELCOME. FRANCINE: OF COURSE THE CONCERN IS THAT
FORECASTERS ARE REALLY COUNTING ON CONSUMERS TO TRY AND DRIVE
THIS AND SO FAR IT HAS BEEN VERY, VERY TIMID.
WHAT IS HOLDING PEOPLE BACK FROM SPENDING MORE?
>> IT’S PROBABLY THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURES.
MANY PEOPLE ARE WORRIED. WE SEE REAL INCOMES ARE
INCREASE AGENT THE MOMENT. WAGES ARE RISING MORE QUICKLY
THAN INFLATION. EXPECTED INFLATION.
AND IT’S GOOD IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BUT AT THE SAME TIME
PEOPLE SEEM TO FEEL THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE,
BUT IN THE DATA TODAY, WE SEE SOME BRIGHT SPOTS.
WE SEE FOR INSTANCE HOSPITALITY STRONG.
WE SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN RETAIL. THEY ARE COMING FROM A LOW
LEVEL. IT SEEMS THAT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS INDEED RISING AND
THAT IS ONE OF THE FACTORS WE EXPECTED AS POSITIVE THIS YEAR.
FRANCINE: I GUESS SOME OF THE OTHER
THINGS THAT IS PUZZLING A LOT OF PEOPLE IS THE PROTRACTED
WEAKNESS OF GERMANY WHEN IT COMES TO MANUFACTURING.
MANUFACTURING SECTOR HAS BEEN IMPROVING ALL OVER THE WORLD
AND CERTAINLY IN MANY, MANY REGIONS ACROSS THE WORLD AND IN
EUROPE. WHY HAVE WE NOT SEEN THAT BOOST
IN GERMANY SO FAR?
>> SO IN GERMANY, MANY COMPANIES ARE MANUFACTURING THE
FEEL OF THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT AND
REGULATION. A HEAVY BURDEN OF BUREAUCRACY
AND TAXES. IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL INDEED THAT
THE GERMAN EXPORTERS HAVEN’T BEEN ABLE TO BENEFIT.
AGAIN, IN THE DATA TODAY WE SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN EXPECTATIONS.
GERMAN COMPANIES DO EXPECT TO BENEFIT FROM THIS HOME RUN IN
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. AT THE SAME TIME WE SEE ALL THE
BOOKS STILL SHRINKING. THE IMPROVEMENTS HAVE NOT
ARRIVED BUT AT LEAST COMPANIES ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
OPTIMISTIC. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE PART OF ENERGY POLICY.
PRICES HAVE COME DOWN. ESPECIALLY FOR GAS.
NOT AS FAR AS NECESSARY TO HELP THAT SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY.
FRANCINE: THE LABOR MARKET HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY RESILIENT ACTUALLY. IN FACT, EVEN BECAUSE THERE IS
THIS ECONOMIC WEAKNESS, YOU EXPECT TO THAT TO CONTINUE TO
BE CASE?
>> YES, WE DO. WE SEE SOME SECTORS TO HAVE
ECONOMY, FOR INSTANCE THE CAR INDUSTRY AND SUPPLIES TO THE
CAR INDUSTRY WHERE WE SEE JOB LOSSES BUT OVERALL THE MAJORITY
OF COMPANIES IS STILL LOOKING FOR PEOPLE AND SOME COMPANIES
ARE ACTUALLY HELD BACK BY A LACK OF STAFF.
SO WE DON’T EXPECT A AN INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT.
THAT IS ANOTHER FASTBALLER STABILIZING THE ECONOMY AT THE
MOMENT. IT IS A STAGNATION WITHOUT A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT. FRANCINE:
OF COURSE GERMANY HAS BEEN HIT BY A LOT OF STRIKES, MACHINE
THAN USUAL AND MORE THAN OTHER COUNTRIES.
WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT WAGE GROWTH AND THE LABOR
MARKET? SOMETHING SO IMPORTANT TO THE
ECB AND THEIR FUTURE POLICIES.
>> YES, THERE IS SOME TIGHTNESS IN THE LABOR MARKET AND THAT IS
DRIVING WAGES. IT DOES INCREASE THE BARGAINING
POWER OF UNIONS AT THE SAME
TIME THE STRIKES IN GERMANY, WE HAVE SEEN ARCH STRIKES OF SMALL
UNIONS THAT EXPLOIT
PARTICULARLY MARKET POWER LIKE TRAIN DRIVERS OR PILOT.
THE BIG UNIONS HAVEN’T REACTED TO THE LABOR MARKETS BY
INCREASING WAGES OR INCREASING WAGE DEMANDS MASSIVELY.
THERE ARE SIZABLE WAGE INCREASES BUT IT COULD BE WORSE
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE COMPANIES IN TERMS OF THE
FUNCTIONING OF THE LABOR MARKET SIGNIFICANT WAGE INCREASES ARE
WHAT IS NEEDED BECAUSE IF THERE IS NOT ENOUGH STAFF, IF
COMPANIES DO NOT FIND PEOPLE THEY NEED TO PAY MORE. FRANCINE:
THE ECB IS NOW YOU KNOW, THE SIGNALING IS PRETTY CLEAR THEY
WILL START CUTTING IN JUNE. HOW HELPFUL BE THAT BE FOR THE
GERMAN ECONOMY?
>> FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE GERMAN ECONOMY, EVEN EARLIER
RATE CUTS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BUT THE ECB LOOKS AT THE
EUROZONE AS A WHOLE AND IS WORRIED ABOUT WAGE INCREASES IN
THE SUBSECTOR IN PARTICULAR. IT IS FINE IF THIS COMES IN
JUNE BUT THAT WOULD HELP THE GERMAN ECONOMY.
ONE OF THE WEAKNESSES IN GERMANY IS CONSTRUCTION AND
THAT WOULD ALSO HELP IN PARTICULAR FOR CONSTRUCTION.
FRANCINE: THERE IS A THERE IS THE LATEST
PLAN TO REDUCE THE CORPORATE TAX BURDEN TO THE TUNE OF 7
BILLION EUROS. IS THAT HELPFUL OR DO YOU THINK
OTHER THINGS WOULD BE MORE HELPFUL FOR ECONOMY?
>> THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL. IT IS THE TAX BURDEN IN GERMANY
IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN THE G-7 SO IT WOULD BE GOOD.
THIS LAW GOT STUCK IN THE SECOND CHAMBER IN GERMANY SO
THE SECOND CHAMBER WHERE THE STATES ARE REPRESENTED HAS
ALREADY REDUCED THIS PACKAGE. THEY HAVE SAID IF THEY AGREE,
THEY ONLY AGREE TO SOMETHING LIKE 3 BILLION.
IT HAS BECOME A VERY SMALL PACKAGE.
IT’S NOT GOING TO BE A GAME CHANGER.
THE DIRECTION IS FINE BUT IT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IF IT
COMES. FRANCINE: THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR JOINING
US. THE PRESIDENT OF THEEFO IPS CONSTITUTE.
COMING UP, E.U. LEADERS DISCUSS FURTHER TARIFFS
ON GRAIN. WE’LL LOOK AT HOW THE U.K.-RUSSIAN CONFLICT HAS
TURNED INTO A GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONFLICT. THAT’S NEXT.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪
FRANCINE: YOU’RE LOOKING LIVE AT THE
PRINCIPLE ROOM. COMING UP AN INTERVIEW WITH
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN AT 7:00 A.M. EASTERN. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪ WELL, THE PROPOSED VIEWS OF
FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS TO FUND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN SUPPORT
TO UKRAINE IS THE VERY LATEST FOR THE WEST. WE ALSO LOOK AT
HOW THE WAR AND SANCTIONS ARE IMPACTING THE ECONOMY.
I’M PLEASED TO BE JOINED BY STEPHANIE BAKER, AUTHOR TO HAVE
NEW BOOK, PUNISHING PUTIN INSIDE THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC WAR
TO BRING DOWN RUSSIA. ALWAYS GREAT TO SPEAK TO YOU.
YOU HAVE SOME PRETTY UNIQUE INSIGHTS.
THE UKRAINE RUINED STOCK ON CAPITOL HILL AND THERE IS TALK
IN BRUSSELS ABOUT FREEZING ASSETS AND GIVING THE MONEY TO
UKRAINE. IS THERE A LITTLE WILL? >> WHAT THEY ARE LOOKING AT NOW
IS TAKING THE PROFITS FROM THOSE IMMOBILIZED RUSSIAN
CENTRAL BANK ASSETS THAT ARE CURRENTLY BEING EARNED BY EURO
CLEAR IN BELGIUM AND USING THOSE PROFITS FOR UKRAINE TO
FUND THROUGH THIS E.U. FUND TO PROVIDE MILITARY
ASSISTANCE AND THE THINKING THERE IS THAT’S NOT SEIZING THE
PRINCIPLES. THAT IS THAT IS A LOWER LEGAL
HURDLE TO SURMOUNT. THE EURO CLEAR DOESN’T HAVE A
LEGAL OBLIGATION TO PAY ANY INTEREST ON THOSE ASSETS TO THE
RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK AND SO THAT’S WHAT’S MOVING FORWARD AT
THE MOMENT. FRANCINE: TARIFFS ALSO SEEM TO BE
SPLITTING OPINION. SOME SAY THEY WORK.
ORES SAY THEY DON’T. COULD IT ACTUALLY MAKE A
DIFFERENCE IF THERE WERE TARIFFS ON RUSSIAN GRAINS?
>> I THINK THIS IS GROWN OUT OF FRUSTRATION IN EUROPE THEY ARE
SEEING AN INFLUX IN UKRAINIAN GRAIN PARTICULARLY IN COUNTRIES
LIKE POLAND WHICH HAS CREATED A POLITICAL PROBLEM.
THERE IS THIS DISCONNECT, WHY ARE WE STILL IMPORTING RUSSIAN
GRAIN WHEN WE’RE FLOODED WITH UKRAINIAN GRAIN, WHY NOT STOP
OR LIMIT THROUGH TARIFFS THE AMOUNT OF RUPP RUSSIAN G GRAIN
INTO THE E.U. FRANCINE: ALSO ASKING UKRAINE TO STOP
WITH DRONES HURTING SOME OF THEIR OIL FACILITIES.
ON THE OTHER HAND IT COULD BE USED TO CRIPPLE THE ECONOMY.
WHAT IS THE RIGHT WAY TO THINK ABOUT H?
>> IN WASHINGTON GAS PRICES ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO THE RUNUP TO
AN ELECTION. YOU HAVE SEEN THE PRICE OF OIL
CREEP UP OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO.
UKRAINE IS BUST THE RATED THAT THE KREMLIN’S OIL REVENUES ARE
STILL QUITE HIGH AND THE WEST HASN’T DONE ENOUGH AND THEY ARE
GOING TO TAKE MATTERS INTO THEIR OWN HANDS.
THERE IS A DELICATE BALANCE HOW FAR N.E.C.
GO WITH THIS AND HOW MUCH DAMAGE THEY CAN INFLICT.
THE PROBLEM IS ONCE THEY DAMAGE SOME OF THE REFINERY FACILITIES
BECAUSE OF SANCTIONS THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY REPLACING
SOME OF THOSE PARTS. SO IT DOES SLOW DOWN THEIR
ABILITY TO REFINE PRODUCTS AND THAT HAS AN IMPACT ON OIL
PRICES. MANY THINK RUSSIA IS GOING TO
BE EXPORT MANAGER CRUDE OIL AS A RESULT. FRANCINE:
INDIA SAID IT WILL STOP TAKING OIL FROM CERTAIN TANKS.
IS IT A GAME CHANGER OR LIP SERVICE?
WASHINGTON IS ENFORCING THE SANCTIONS THEY IMPOSED.
THEY PUT SANCTIONS ON THE RUSSIAN STATE SHIPPING COMPANY
AND INDIA IS NOW SAYING WE’RE NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY OIL FROM
THEIR TANKERS. WE DO NOT WANT TO BE MIXED UP
IN ANY SANCTIONS VIOLATIONS AND
THEY HAVE DONE THAT WITH OTHER TANKERS
THAT HAVE BEEN BLACKLISTED. I THINK YOU SEEING SANCTIONS
ENFORCEMENT HAVING SOME EFFECT. FRANCINE: THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
STEPHANIE BAKER. HER NEW BOOK IS OUT I THINK NOW.
>> NO, EARLY SEPTEMBER. FRANCINE:
IT HAS BEEN ONE OF THE KEY DRIVES OF INFLATION ACROSS
EUROPE WITH THE U.K. EXPOSED TO ENERGY EXPORTS.
INFLATION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 2 1/2 YEARS.
RETAIL SALES STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND BLOOMBERG
ECONOMICS SAYS A THE BRITISH RECESSION IS OVER.
SOME ARGUE THIS IS PAPERING OVER THE CRACKS OF BREXIT AND
SAY THE LASTING -- OF LEAVING THE E.U.
IS INESCAPABLE. MATT, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
WHY WRITE A COLUMN ON BREXIT NOW?
>> WELL, IT HAS BEEN EIGHT YEARS FOR ONE THING.
EIGHT YEARS IS PLENTY OF TIME TO DO AN ASSESSMENT AND WE HAVE
I THINK BY ALL ACCOUNTS EMERGED FROM COVID-19 SERGE IN THE U.S.
SO IT IS A GOOD TIME TO SAY ALL RIGHT, WHAT IS THE SITUATION
WITH THE U.K. SINCE WE HAVE RECOVERED SO TO
SPEAK FROM COVID-19 AND THE ANSWER IS THE MARKET TOLD US
EIGHT YEARS AGO THAT BREXIT WAS A GIANT STEP BACK FOR THE U.K.
AND THE MARKET IS TELLING US TODAY THE SAME THING.
SO THAT IS THE REASON FOR TAKING THIS VERY SERIOUSLY AND
NOT ONLY THAT, IF YOU ASKED THE BRITISH PUBLIC WHICH THEY DID
LAST JULY, THE BRITISH PUBLIC SAID WE WOULD LIKE TO REJOIN
THE E.U. AND CURIOUSLY IN AN ELECTION
YEAR IN THE U.K., POLITICIANS FROM BOTH PARTIES WOULD RATHER
DISCUSS GAZA 3,000 MILES AWAY THAN DOING SOMETHING WITH THE
E.U. WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT TO BRITAIN’S HEALTH. FRANCINE:
ARE THERE ANY ANALOGIES TO BE MADE WITH BREXIT?
>> YOU KNOW, IT IS PROBABLY THE WORST DISASTER, MARKET DISASTER
IN AT LEAST IF YOU LOOK AT THE CURRENCY IN MODERN BRITISH
HISTORY. THE POUND HAD A RECORD DECLINE
THAT DAY, JUNE 23, 2016, WHICH WAS THE DATE OF THE REFERENDUM
THE POUND HAS NOT RECOVERED SINCE THEN.
AND TODAY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE EQUITY MARKET, YOU LOOK AT THE
DEBT MARKET, BREXIT HAS IMPOSED A PREMIUM PENALTY, IF YOU LIKE,
ON BRITISH ASSETS AND SO INVESTORS TODAY HAVE TO PAY A
LOT MORE AND SUFFER A LOT MORE IN THEIR RETURNS OWNING BRITISH
ASSETS WHETHER IT IS DEBT OR EQUITY. THAT IS A CONSEQUENCE OF
BREXIT. THE REASON FOR THAT IS BY THE
WAY, IF YOU BREAK WITH 40% PLUS OF YOUR TRADING PARTNER, WHICH
IS WHAT THE E.U. REPRESENTED TO BRITAIN, YOU’RE
GOING TO PAY A PRICE. TO PUT THAT IN CONTEXT
ACTUALLY, THE U.S. DEPENDS ON MEXICO AND CANADA.
THOSE ARE THE TWO BIGGEST TRADING PARTNERS.
THAT IS ACTUALLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE E.U.
REPRESENTS TO BRITAIN. IF WE DID SOMETHING SIMILAR OF
COURSE IT WOULD BE A CATASTROPHE.
SO THAT’S WHAT THE U.K. IS LIVING WITH.
THE PUBLIC BELATEDLY REALIZES THAT AND THE MARKET IS
CONSISTENTLY REMINDING BRITAINS THAT THE COUNTRY, IN A RELATIVE
SENSE HAS GOTTEN SMALLER, NOT BIGGER. FRANCINE:
I GUESS THERE IS A BIGGER QUESTION WHETHER THE WORLD HAS
LEARNED ANYTHING FROM POPULISM. THERE ARE THOSE WHO SAY WE HAVE
TWO CANDIDATES FAIRLY TO THE CENTER AND THAT IS PARTLY
THANKS TO BREXIT BECAUSE SOME OF THE MORE COLORFUL POLICIES
HAVE BEEN WEEDED TO ONE SIDE.
>> YEAH. I GUESS, YOU KNOW, LOOK, THERE
IS A SILVER LINING IN EVERYTHING.
THERE IS THE SAYING, EVERY PROBLEM THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY.
IT’S TRUE. THE CENTER IS WHERE YOU GOVERN
BEST. THE CENTER IS WHERE YOU GET THINGS DONE.
SO PERHAPS WE ARE GETTING TO A POINT WHERE PEOPLE REALIZE THAT
THE KIND OF POLITICS THAT IS PREFERRED AND THAT IS GOING TO
BE BENEFICIAL IS FROM THE CENTER.
NOT THE RIGHT OR THE LEFT. FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH.
MATT WINKLER, A BLOOMBERG EDITOR IN CHIEF EMERITUS OF
COURSE. COMING UP, NIKE WARNS INVESTORS
THAT SALES WILL TAKE A HIT THIS YEAR.
WE TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RETAIL LANDSCAPE.
THAT IS COME UP SHORTLY. THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
FRANCINE: REDDIT ENDED ITS FIRST DAY 48
PRKT% HIGHER IN THE FOURTH BIGGEST U.S. I.P.O. OF THE YEAR.
A TOUCH LOWER IN PREMARKET TRADING.
CHARLIE WELLS IS WITH US. WHAT IS BEHIND THIS, DAY ONE IT
FLEW OFF THE SHELF.
>> IT WAS A POP. I THINK WITH ANY I.P.O.
YOU’RE WORRYING IS IT GOING TO BE A FLOP OR A POP?
ARE THEY GOING TO GO UP OR DOWN? THEY HAVE BEEN SPINNING THIS
A.I. STORY HOW THEY CAN USE THE TROVE OF DATA THEY HAVE GOT TO
HELP EMPROVE THEIR LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS.
IT SEEMS LIKE TO MARKET YESTERDAY BELIEVED THAT.
THIS BODES WELL FOR OTHER COMPANIES THINKING ABOUT
I.P.O.ING USING REDDIT AS A TEMPERATURE CHECK.
THAT WAS HOT YESTERDAY. FRANCINE:
WE’RE WATCHING FEDEX EARNINGS WHICH BEAT EXPECTATIONS.
>> THEY DID ON PROFITABILITY. YOU THINK ABOUT THE U.S.
SHIPPERS, FEDEX AND UPS. UPS HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING.
FEDEX AND FEDEX EXPRESS, THERE WERE A LOT OF REDUNDANCIES
THERE. THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER RESTRUCTURING.
SOMETHING THAT INVESTORS LIKE, THEY WERE ABLE TO TALK ABOUT
$45 BILLION IN BUYBACKS.
THE SHARE PRICE UP 13% IN LATE TRADING YESTERDAY. FRANCINE:
NIKE HAS WARNED INVESTORS THAT SALES WILL TAKE A HIT LATER
THIS YEAR. THIS IS AS THE SPORTSWEAR GIANT
WORKS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH MERCHANDISE WITH
SHOPPERS THAT THEY WANT TO BUY. THIS COMES AS LULULEMON
RELEASED A LOWER THAN EXPECTED SALES OUTLOOK AS VISITS TO U.S.
STORES SLOWED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR.
I’M DELIGHTED TO BE JOINED BY ANDREA. WHAT IS GOING ON WITH
SPORTSWEAR?
>> IT IS IN A STATE OF UPHEAVAL. THERE ARE THREE THINGS GOING ON.
THE GREAT ROTATION WHICH IS THE MOVE WE’RE STILL IN
CASUALIZATION BUT THERE IS A MOVE FROM THE SLOUCHY LOUNGE
WEAR WE WERE WEARING IN THE PANDEMIC TO MORE FORHALL STYLE.
FRANCINE: WE’RE MORE CHIC NOW.
>> EXACTLY. THIS THIRD FACTOR WHICH I CALL
THE GREAT FRAGMENTATION. FOR MANY YEARS, NIKE, ADIDAS,
PUMA, THEY COULD SELL ALL KINDS OF PRODUCTS TO ALL CONSUMERS AT
ALL PRICE POINT. NOW YOU HAVE COMPETITORS
FILLING IN AWAY AT THEMES. LULU IN AT LEISURE THAT ARE
TAKING BITS OF THEIR SALES. THEY ARE LIKE MID MARKET
FASHION BRANDS AND THEY HAVE BECOME TOO RELIANT ON A SINGLE
PROJECT THAT BURNS BRIGHT AND THEN FADES.
THEY HAVE TO GET A PIPELINE OF NEW PRODUCTS.
NIKE HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SUFFERING WITH THIS AND THAT’S
WHAT THEY ARE TRYING TO ADDRESS. FRANCINE:
WHAT IS THE READ FOR ADIDAS?
>> I THINK IT IS QUITE LIMITED. TER BOTH FACING THE SAME BIG
PICTURE. THE NEW C.E.O.
OF ADIDAS SET UP HIS THOUGHTS LAST WEEK.
HE SEEMS MUCH MORE ON THE PULSE OF WHAT’S GOING ON.
HE SEEMS TO UNDERSTAND THAT THESE BRANDS ARE FASHION
BUSINESSES AS WELL AS SPORTS BUSINESSES.
HE CAME FROM PUMA WHICH IS MORE FASHION FOCUS.
HE NOTICED THINGS IN 2022 SOME OF THE STUFF, THE GAZELLE, THE
STYLES WERE REALLY HEATING UP BECAUSE OF COLLABORATIONS WITH
GUCCI. LAST YEAR HE RAMPED UP THE
PRODUCTION OF THOSE STYLES BUT HE IS NOT THINKING THIS IS
GOING TO STAY STATIC. HE IS LOOKING AT WHERE ITS
MIGHT GO NEXT INTRUSION NEW PRODUCTS AND FIGURING OUT WHERE
HE CAN TAKE THAT RANGE ON. FRANCINE:
WHAT IS GOING ON AT LVMH? WE HAVE THE NUMBER TWO STEPPING
DOWN. IT IS A RESHUFFLE. ARE THEY LOOKING FOR A PERSON
TO REPLACE HIM OR TRYING TO MAKE THE BUSINESS SLEEKER?
>> I THINK WE ARE GETTING THIS SORT OF ALMOST GENERATIONAL
CHANGE AT LVMH. YOU HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF SENIOR
EXECUTIVES WHO WORKED ALONGSIDE HIM RETIRING MOVING TO
DIFFERENT ROLES. WHAT EVERYBODY IS WATCHING,
EVERY LITTLE CHANGE AT LVMH IS FASCINATING BECAUSE AT SOME
POINT WE’RE GOING TO GET THE TRANSITION TO THE NEXT
GENERATION. IT IS REALLY WHICH OF HIS
CHILDREN GETS THE ROLE. IS IT ONE? DO THEY SPLIT IT?
WHAT HAPPENS? THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT
THESE SENIOR MOVES IF IT IS ONE OF THE YOUNG CHILDREN, DO ONE
OF THE SENIOR EXIFERS STEP IN UNTIL THEY ARE READY? FRANCINE:
THANKS SO MUCH. "SURVEILLANCE" UP AHEAD AND THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
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