Potsdam: Marriage on the Skids

Summary

The lecture discusses the Potsdam Conference of June 1945, where the 'Big Three' (US, UK, and USSR) met to settle post-WWII Europe. Despite the title 'Marriage on the Skids' suggesting a breakdown in relations, the conference aimed to continue cooperation. However, the end of the Lend-Lease aid, the new leadership of Harry Truman and Clement Attlee, and the successful Trinity nuclear test shifted US-Soviet dynamics. The conference failed to reach a comprehensive settlement, reflecting deep mistrust and divergent goals, particularly over Germany's future and Soviet reparations. This discord set the stage for the Cold War, as the temporary Potsdam Agreement became the de facto post-war European order.

Takeaways

• 🏛️ The Potsdam Conference in June 1945 was a pivotal meeting between the 'Big Three' (USSR, USA, and UK) following Germany's unconditional surrender to discuss post-war Europe.
• ⚖️ The conference aimed to finalize a grand settlement and address unfinished business from the Yalta Conference but ended with an agreement to continue disagreements, symbolized by the phrase 'marriage on the skids'.
• 🔚 The Lend-Lease system, which provided significant aid to the Soviet Union, was terminated by the U.S. Congress, signaling a shift in American policy and concerns for the Soviets.
• 🌍 The composition of the 'Big Three' changed with the passing of FDR and Churchill's electoral defeat, introducing Truman and Attlee, who had different relationships with Stalin.
• 💥 The successful testing of the atomic bomb 'Trinity' during the conference altered U.S. calculations, reducing the perceived need for Soviet cooperation in the Pacific.
• 💰 Stalin pushed for substantial reparations to rebuild the Soviet Union, proposing a figure of 20 billion dollars, which was seen as exorbitant by the U.S. and UK.
• 🤝 There was a philosophical divide over Germany's treatment post-war; the West sought a balance between punishment and rehabilitation, while the Soviets emphasized the need for compensation for the devastation they suffered.
• 🗣️ The conference was marked by high levels of mistrust and a lack of personal rapport, particularly between Truman and Stalin, which hindered negotiations.
• 📜 The Potsdam Agreement, when reached, was more of a failure than a success, as it did not resolve the core issues of Germany's future or Soviet demands, leading to ongoing tensions.
• 🕊️ Despite the lack of a grand settlement, the Potsdam Conference did result in the establishment of some post-war structures, such as the Council of Foreign Ministers, which continued to meet to address unresolved issues.

Q & A

What was the primary purpose of the Potsdam Conference?

The primary purpose of the Potsdam Conference was to carve out a grand settlement in Berlin, the enemy capital, and to revisit the unfinished business of Yalta, with the aim of continuing to not agree, which essentially meant there was no grand settlement.

How did the end of the Lend-Lease system impact the Soviet perspective on the Potsdam Conference?

From the Soviet perspective, the ending of the Lend-Lease system was seen as a diplomatic signal that the Americans were going to drive a hard line at Potsdam, indicating that they no longer needed the Soviet alliance now that the war was over.

What changed significantly in the leadership of the 'Big Three' between World War II and the Potsdam Conference?

During World War II, the 'Big Three' consisted of FDR, Churchill, and Stalin. However, by the Potsdam Conference, FDR had passed away and was replaced by Harry Truman, and Churchill lost the election and was replaced by Clement Attlee. This change meant that Stalin was now dealing with two leaders he did not have a relationship with.

What was the significance of the Trinity test during the Potsdam Conference?

The success of the Trinity test, which was the first detonation of a nuclear bomb by the United States, shifted American calculations at the conference. They no longer felt the need for Soviet assistance to defeat Japan, and this development influenced the negotiations and the eventual stance of the U.S. towards the Soviet Union.

What were the main points of contention between Stalin and the Western Allies at Potsdam?

The main points of contention included the amount of reparations for the Soviet Union, the future of Germany, and the establishment of free elections in Eastern Europe. The Soviet Union wanted significant monetary reparations and control over Eastern Europe, while the U.S. and Britain wanted to avoid repeating the punitive measures of Versailles and instead sought a balance between punishment and rehabilitation for Germany.

How did the differing perspectives on reparations between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies affect the Potsdam Conference?

The Soviet Union demanded substantial reparations to rebuild their nation, which had suffered greatly during the war. In contrast, the U.S. and Britain considered the requested amount excessive and unrealistic, leading to a deadlock on the issue and contributing to the overall failure to reach a grand settlement.

What was the role of the United States' stance on not seeking territorial gains in their negotiations at Potsdam?

The United States' stance on not seeking territorial gains was significant as it highlighted their desire for a different kind of post-war settlement compared to the Soviet Union. This stance was used by Truman to pressure Stalin into considering economic deals instead of territorial compensation.

What was the outcome of the Potsdam Conference regarding the future of Germany?

The Potsdam Conference did not reach a definitive agreement on the future of Germany. It was decided that Germany would be de-militarized and denazified, but the specifics of how this would be achieved and the broader strategic framework for Germany's integration into Europe were not agreed upon.

How did the Potsdam Conference set the stage for the Cold War?

The Potsdam Conference set the stage for the Cold War by highlighting the deep ideological and strategic differences between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies. The failure to reach a grand settlement and the subsequent actions by both sides to push their own agendas in the absence of agreement led to increased mutual animosity and the beginning of a prolonged period of rivalry.

What was the role of the Council of Foreign Ministers in the aftermath of the Potsdam Conference?

The Council of Foreign Ministers was established as an extraordinary mechanism to continue negotiations among the 'Big Three' to hammer out a final settlement for post-war Europe. However, due to the ongoing disagreements and lack of consensus, it became a conduit for tension rather than a successful negotiation platform.

Outlines

00:00

😐 Potsdam Conference: The Beginning of the End for Allied Unity

The first paragraph introduces the Potsdam Conference held in June 1945, shortly after Germany's surrender. It highlights the 'marriage on the skids' theme, indicating the breakdown in relations between Stalin and the Western Allies. The context is set with the end of the Lend-Lease program, which had been a significant aid to the Soviet Union during WWII. The Soviet perspective is that this signaled a shift in American policy towards a harder stance against the Soviets. The paragraph also discusses the change in leadership, with FDR's death and the replacement of Churchill by Attlee, both of which affected the dynamics of the conference.

05:03

😕 The Shift in Power Dynamics at Potsdam

Paragraph two delves into the challenges faced by Stalin at the Potsdam Conference. It discusses the new leadership in the US and UK, with Truman's anti-communist stance and Attlee's lack of rapport with Stalin, creating a difficult situation for the Soviet leader. The paragraph also covers the issue of reparations, with Stalin pushing for significant financial compensation to rebuild the Soviet Union, which had suffered greatly during the war. The climax of the conference is marked by the news of the successful Trinity test (the first nuclear bomb), which shifts American calculations and reduces the perceived need for Soviet cooperation.

10:05

😟 The Failure of the Potsdam Agreement

The third paragraph discusses the failure of the Potsdam Conference to achieve a grand settlement. It outlines the disagreements over the amount of reparations, with Stalin's demand for 20 billion dollars being seen as excessive by the US and UK. The philosophical differences between the West's desire to avoid repeating the punitive measures of Versailles and the Soviet's need for substantial compensation are highlighted. The paragraph also notes the increasing mistrust and the eventual realization by Stalin that the conference was not going to yield the desired outcomes for the Soviet Union.

15:08

😞 The Aftermath of Potsdam: Seeds of the Cold War

Paragraph four explores the consequences of the Potsdam Conference, where no final agreement on the fate of Germany was reached. It discusses the creation of the Council of Foreign Ministers as a mechanism to continue negotiations. The paragraph highlights how the temporary occupation of Germany became a long-term reality and how the inability to agree at Potsdam led to a growing animosity between the superpowers. It also touches on the establishment of international bodies like the United Nations and the initial cooperation that took place despite the tensions.

20:09

🤔 Reflecting on the Grand Alliance: Was a Breakdown Inevitable?

The final paragraph poses a reflective question on whether the breakdown of the Grand Alliance was inevitable. It reviews the historical context from 1941 to 1949, considering moments of understanding and conflict, and asks whether the fundamental differences between Stalin and the West made a peaceful settlement impossible. The paragraph ponders whether the alliance could have survived or if the divergence in interests was too great to overcome.

Keywords

💡Potsdam Conference

The Potsdam Conference was a meeting of the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union towards the end of World War II. Held in Potsdam, Germany, in July–August 1945, the conference focused on the reconstruction of post-war Europe and the treatment of Germany. In the video, the conference is described as a pivotal moment where the 'marriage' between Stalin and the West was on borrowed time, indicating the beginning of the Cold War tensions.

💡Unconditional Surrender

Unconditional surrender refers to the complete and absolute submission of a defeated belligerent to the terms dictated by the victorious party in a war. In the context of the video, Germany's unconditional surrender in May 1945 set the stage for the Potsdam Conference, where the victorious powers aimed to determine the post-war order.

💡Big Three

The term 'Big Three' refers to the leaders of the three major Allied powers during World War II: the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union. In the video, the reassembling of the Big Three at Potsdam signifies an attempt to continue their cooperation in shaping the post-war world, despite emerging ideological differences.

💡Lend-Lease System

The Lend-Lease System was a program under which the United States provided military aid to foreign nations during World War II. The video mentions the end of this system as a significant event leading up to Potsdam, signaling a shift in U.S.-Soviet relations and foreshadowing the difficulties that would arise during the conference.

💡Yalta Agreement

The Yalta Agreement refers to the decisions made during the Yalta Conference in February 1945, where the Allies agreed on the occupation zones in post-war Germany, reparations, and the establishment of the United Nations. The video discusses how the Potsdam Conference aimed to revisit and finalize these agreements, but ultimately failed to do so.

💡Reparation

Reparation in the context of the video refers to the compensation demanded by the Soviet Union for the damages incurred during World War II. The Soviet demand for substantial reparations was a major point of contention at Potsdam, reflecting the deep economic and ideological rifts between the Allies.

💡Truman Doctrine

The Truman Doctrine was a foreign policy of the United States that aimed to contain the spread of communism during the Cold War. While not directly mentioned in the video, the doctrine is relevant to the discussion of President Harry Truman's hardline stance against the Soviet Union during the Potsdam Conference, which is a precursor to the broader Cold War policies.

💡Anti-Communism

Anti-Communism refers to opposition to communism as a political ideology. The video highlights the growing anti-communist sentiment in the West, particularly in the United States under President Truman, as a key factor contributing to the tensions and eventual breakdown of cooperation at Potsdam.

💡Council of Foreign Ministers

The Council of Foreign Ministers was an organization established to coordinate the policies of the Allied powers in the aftermath of World War II. The video mentions this body as an 'extraordinary mechanism' created due to the failure to reach a grand settlement at Potsdam, indicating the ongoing diplomatic efforts despite the lack of consensus.

💡Berlin Crisis

The Berlin Crisis refers to a series of crises between 1948 and 1961, during the early years of the Cold War, concerning the status of Berlin. The video suggests that the unresolved issues from Potsdam, particularly regarding Germany's future, contributed to the tensions that led to the Berlin Crisis, marking a further deterioration in relations between the Soviet Union and the West.

💡Grand Settlement

A grand settlement in the context of the video refers to a comprehensive and final agreement among the Allied powers to establish the post-war order. The failure to achieve such a settlement at Potsdam is highlighted as a key reason for the ongoing tensions and the eventual breakdown of the alliance, setting the stage for the Cold War.

Highlights

The Potsdam Conference in June 1945 aimed to carve up a grand settlement in Berlin and revisit unfinished business from Yalta.

The conference was marked by the 'marriage on the skids' between Stalin and the West, indicating a lack of agreement and impending end to their alliance.

The Lend-Lease system's end signaled a change in US-Soviet relations and was seen by the Soviets as a diplomatic signal of the US's hard stance at Potsdam.

The death of FDR and the change in leadership to Harry Truman altered the dynamic of the Big Three, affecting the alliance's stability.

Churchill's replacement by Clement Attlee due to a lost election further complicated the conference, as Attlee had no strong rapport with Stalin.

Stalin faced a difficult situation at Potsdam, trying to negotiate reparations for the heavily damaged Soviet Union.

The successful Trinity test (first nuclear bomb) shifted US calculations, reducing the need for Soviet cooperation in defeating Japan.

The US and UK wanted free elections in Eastern Europe, while the Soviet Union sought financial reparations.

The Potsdam Agreement was essentially dead on arrival due to the major parties having already achieved their principal war aims.

The conference ended without a grand settlement, leading to the establishment of the Council of Foreign Ministers to continue negotiations.

The inability to agree on the German question and the future of Eastern Europe highlighted the deep divisions between the参会国家.

The Potsdam Conference's failure to bridge differences at Yalta set the stage for post-war tensions and the eventual Cold War.

Despite the tensions, the Soviet Union and the West remained partners in the establishment of new international bodies like the United Nations.

The Potsdam Conference's outcome was a skeletal agreement that became the building block for post-war Europe.

The Berlin Crisis later marked the final divorce settlement, with the Yalta agreement becoming the blueprint for post-war Europe by default.

The Grand Alliance from 1941 to 1949 had moments of understanding and low points, with the question of whether it could have survived being a matter of historical debate.

Transcripts

this lecture is entitled potsdam

marriage on the skids in other words our

subject matter is to look at the potsdam

conference in june 1945

a few weeks after germany's

unconditional surrender

uh the big three are reassembling again

to

essentially carve up a grand

settlement in berlin the enemy capital

and to revisit the unfinished business

of

yalta

and as you can

see from the title marriage on the skids

the potsdam

agreement which

does come to fruition

is

in essence

an agreement to continue to not agree

and as a result

there is no grand settlement

and

essentially the marriage between stalin

and the west is on

borrowed time

now to start this uh lecture we need to

put uh our context uh put ourselves in

the context of what went on uh before

uh particularly in june 1945. just a few

days before the

conference's formal

inauguration

the u.s congress

brought to an end the lend lease

system that was providing the soviet

union with significant amounts of aid

whether it was in the form of

natural resources

industrial goods

rubber

trucks

this came

to an end now if you look at the actual

law as it passed in congress

it was slated to end

because it was

by nature an

extraordinary measure

that would come to an end once the

hostilities had ended which they did in

may 1945.

however from the soviet perspective the

ending of the led lease system which had

been a vital lifeline to the red army

during world war ii

was sending a diplomatic signal

that the americans were going to drive a

hard message at

potsdam

uh with the war over they no longer had

any need

for

the soviet uh alliance

and as stalin had always suspected

the west would reshift to its

anti-communist

position

now another thing that dramatically

changed

was the cast

because during world war ii the big

three had consisted of fdr

churchill and stalin

and they had led their prospective

states

through the various vagaries of war

and in particular fdr had played a very

vital role as diplomat that was probably

arguably

his greatest skill

in fact at the tehran conference one of

the things that fdr had made a point of

doing

was poking fun f churchill

in front of stalin which immediately

created a little bit of a bond between

fdr and stalin

and it was sending of course an

important signal that despite the

special relationship between britain and

the united states in fact a relationship

that was unprecedented in the way that

they had

integrated their armed forces

that nonetheless the united states

accepted stalin as a real

partner

with fdr gone not only was this

important

glue to the big three missing

but now he was replaced by

harry truman the plane spoken missourian

who had some very unpolitical

comments

during hitler's invasion of uh

of uh russia

so

from the perspective of stalin who had

no relationship to truman

the removal of fdr

the replacement of new deal socialists

with

harry truman's brand of evangelical

anti-communism

was a

matter of concern

and just one week into the conference

churchill as well had to bid adieu puska

because

he had lost an election a landslide to

the labor party he was replaced by

clement atlee

and

although clement atlee was a socialist

he was not a person that had

any great rapport

with

stalin

now across the bargaining paper table

were essentially

two strangers

including an american

president

who had drawn a very hard line

with foreign secretary molotov before

the potsdam

meeting

so it was very clear to stalin

that at podstam he was dealing with a

difficult

situation

he tried to drive a hard bargain in

terms of achieving particularly now

reparations to rebuild the soviet union

for about a week he brought back the

yalta agreement which had been tabled

and the idea of 8 million

dollars in reparations for

the soviet union

and

then the potsdam conference kind of uh

reached its

climax because

in the midst of the conference an aide

went to henry truman's ear

and whispered that trinity was a success

in other words the united states had

developed a nuclear bomb

now the american calculations which have

prevailed at yalta shifted

they no longer believe that they needed

the red army to defeat japan in fact

they saw

soviet interference in asia now as

problematic as the soviet

uh behavior in eastern europe

made it seem that they would be

difficult to reach a deal with them and

they were trying to expand

soviet influence across

the world

on the other hand although

the united states did not feel like it

needed the soviet union anymore it could

not get anything from them

the united states had to acknowledge as

it was drawing its troops from europe

that the red army had its troops all

throughout eastern europe the red army

could not be dislodged so no matter what

the united states may want

relative to poland and the future of

eastern europe the fact of the matter is

is that stalin controlled

their destiny

so what we can see is that the potsdam

conference which had as its you know

unofficial mission

to create a grand settlement to deal the

unresolved issues of yalta there was

really very little chance that it could

ever do that what made matters worse is

that the

sides mistrusted each other

particularly the antipathy between

truman and stalin was very high

at one point in his diary uh stalin

noted that truman is worthless

expressing essentially his frustration

that

truman was not willing to provide

american assistance to rebuild the

soviet union that had done the heavy

lifting

for the war and that had played the

major role in defeating nazi germany

in essence though the potsdam

agreement was dead on arrival

because all of the major parties had

already achieved their principal war

aims in particular

nazi germany was defeated

uh the west uh united states had

liberated western europe the soviet

union had a buffer zone now in eastern

europe and you know essentially what

they wanted the soviet union wanted you

know american money

the united states and britain wanted

free elections in eastern europe that

was kind of gravy that they would like

to achieve

but the only way to achieve it is if the

other party consented to it and the

other party wasn't willing to so in

essence the potsdam agreement was at an

impasse and there was no way or formula

for removing the log jam

now if we look at the pot stem agreement

itself

what we can see that was really disputed

over these two and a half weeks uh was

the reparations uh formula

uh 20 billion dollars had been you know

kind of outlined as a figure by stalin

the united states and

britain had come to the calculation that

you know germany was perhaps worth eight

billion dollars so that this figure was

outlandish and fagtastical an invention

of soviet negotiators for leverage uh to

get deal or money loans from the united

states

another thing though wasn't just the

reparations issue was also kind of a

philosophical issue

from the west there was this sense that

they didn't want to repeat the mistakes

of versailles that you would so punish

your enemy

that in a way by driving a hard bargain

you would defeat yourself by creating so

much animosity

in your

defeated enemy

that they wouldn't accept the deal so

what you wanted to do is to come up with

a formula that you know punished germany

but also rehabilitated them so that they

would become partners for the peace

now from the soviet perspective this

whole

philosophy

was uh alien

novel

uh you know

flagrantly selfish

uh because the way that world war ii had

played out uh most of the devastation

was in eastern europe uh the united

states had suffered almost no war damage

so a you know magnanimous piece

might be uh you know something that was

you know morally laudable

but this was uh overlooking the fact

that the soviet union was devastated

and that you know the soviet union or

that hitler had launched a verdicting

creek on uh soviet territory you know

butchering uh civilians starving to

death russian pows how could you be

magnanimous against such an evil uh

empire

so there was a lot of bickering where

the west was trying to insist on you

know the atlantic charter and free

elections in eastern europe and stalin

was demanding monetary representations

essentially went on for about a week

each side presenting proposals not

reaching agreement and then there was

you know essentially the truman moment

where he stared down

stalin and said you know i've been

listening to you asking for compensation

you know i want to remind you the united

states is not getting anything out of

this deal we're not accepting any

territory

and we gave you territory you know at

tehran we agreed to move

poland uh to the west so you already

have

your compensation now

if if you want to negotiate a loan or

some deal from the united states we're

prepared to enter into an agreement to

that effect we'll negotiate with you but

then you have to give up your

territorial compensation

and essentially when it was pushed to

that point

stalin realized that it was a dead

letter essentially forced into a binary

choice

territory or perhaps a future economic

deal

he took the bird in his hand

rather than you know

two birds in in the future

and uh

you know in this sense uh potsdam was a

failure it was a failure because they

weren't able to essentially bridge the

differences that had appeared at yalta

and stalin felt that he had been

betrayed and cheated that the soviet

union didn't get what they

deserved and as a result even though he

agrees to you know a very skinny potsdam

deal

he's continually trying to revise it

through various pressure

tactics in germany iran

and

turkey so it essentially poisons the

post-war relationship and sets the stage

for the later uh divorce

so in this sense the potsdam agreement

they do come up with an agreement you

can you can read the document and see

the the terms of it

uh but what is uh you know despite all

the things that they agree on what's

really uh striking is that they don't

really agree on the big uh questions at

least for for the most part particularly

the german question

uh you know how is germany going to be

you know a one-hand weekend but also

reintegrated into the european strategic

framework this was a very big question

probably all of the parties had arrived

at potsdam with the idea that germany

would be de militarized denatified and

probably de-industrialized but at the

end of the conference they hadn't

reached an agreement on that

formula

so in other words

a grand settlement a final piece

was not agreed upon and they had to

create this extraordinary mechanism the

council of foreign ministers that would

continue to meet

as representatives of the big three to

hammer out

this

deal

but

in essence because they weren't able to

agree to a final settlement they were

all still occupying germany

and with time the delta map which was

just supposed to be provisional and

skeletal really a bare bones agreement

essentially became the building block

for uh post-war

uh europe

and you know as times went on you know

the the the inability to agree at

potsdam there was no way to really

reconcile these differences

so both sides were trying to come up

with a grand settlement without you know

willing to concede to the other what

they wanted it created a situation of

mutual animosity that poisoned uh

post-war uh just uh you know diplomacy

and we'll look at that you know that

cycle in the next module

but essentially the berlin crisis

marks the final divorce settlement

and in this divorce settlement

since there was no substantial progress

at potsdam

the yalta agreement by default

became the bedrock or blueprint for

post-war europe

now if you look at it on the more

positive side uh from 45 to 48 as

acrimonious as stalin's relationship was

the west

they did remain

partners in other words you know

at a basic level they they accepted the

broad parameters and the deals that they

negotiated well they were allies the the

alliance didn't formally end even if

they were working within the structure

of their alliance for you know to get

what they they they wanted

now as a result of that uh you know the

atlantic order was able to come in uh

the

essentially the united nations uh was

you know established in san francisco in

1945 and the soviet union became a

member with a veto arrangement

but stalin set out a lot of other

international bodies like the breton

woods system uh both sides accepted the

ulta boundaries uh they

pulled their troops back to the yelta

lines they jointly occupied germany on

the other hand the acc became a you know

essentially a

mechanism or a conduit for tension

because since they weren't

getting along

they used all mechanisms that were there

together to try to

push their rival for their own

advantage

so

one example of this is that the acc

quickly breaks down

because the soviet union refuses to

transport coal and wheat and food to the

western urban areas of

germany

uh now the soviet union participates in

nuremberg there's a few embarrassing

moments when essentially the nazis bring

up the katin forest massacre the the

soviet union however uh

does not block the declaration of human

rights

uh but they don't sign it uh either they

they essentially just abstain

uh from it so you know enough enough of

the cooperation emerged that this new

international system was established and

this was probably a good thing

on the other hand this new order was

uh flawed

uh it had been predicated on the idea of

continued soviet u.s cooperation and

instead

the two leading superpowers were at odds

ends and bickering for mutual supremacy

so looking at you know the grand

alliance from roughly 1941 to uh 1949

when it was essentially formally

dissolved

looking at these twists and turns the

moments of you know maximum

understanding the moscow decoration in

1943

you know the low point you know maybe

yalta or maybe potsdam when uh you know

truman called out stalin

uh you know what is your read on this

was there any way for the grand alliance

to survive

uh the achievement of its you know it's

essentially the the goal of the alliance

the destruction of hitler's germany was

there any way that the soviet union

united states could have despite their

differences reached an accommodation a

basic agreement a grand settlement

or you know was you know essentially the

differences between stalin the west so

fundamental their

their interests so incompatible

that you know essentially some type of

divorce

uh a reset to a more normal

rivalry was all but baked into the cake