Retail Got Screwed on the BTC ETF's

Summary

Marone Weiss diskutiert die Leistung von Bitcoin ETFs, die innerhalb von acht Tagen mehr als 1 Milliarde Dollar verloren haben. Trotz Kritiken zeigt die Analyse, dass die ETFs bei der Akzeptanz erfolgreich sind, mit 17 Milliarden Dollar fließendem Kapital innerhalb eines Jahres. Obwohl es Zweifel an der institutionellen Akzeptanz gibt, deutet die Vielfalt der Investoren und der stetige Zustrom von Kleininvestoren auf ein breiteres Interesse an. Die Diskussion um die Zukunft der ETFs und die mögliche Bedrohung durch verbesserte On-Chain-Erfahrungen und Selbstverwahrung wird ebenfalls angesprochen.

Takeaways

• 📉 Bitcoin ETFs haben in kürzester Zeit nach ihrem Start im Januar 2024 über 17 Milliarden Dollar an Kapital eingeflossen, trotz kurzfristiger Rückgänge.
• 📈 Die Bitcoin ETFs waren einige der erfolgreichsten ETFs des Jahres 2024, nur zwei Monate nach ihrem Start.
• 🏦 Institutionelle Investoren scheinen jedoch nicht in großem Umfang an den Bitcoin ETFs teilzunehmen, was Kritik an deren Anziehungskraft für diese Gruppe nach sich zog.
• 📊 Trotz der Kritik zeigt die Datenanalyse, dass Bitcoin ETFs im Vergleich zu anderen ETFs in Bezug auf den Durchschnittshandelspreis und die Anzahl der Handelsteilnehmer beachtliche Ergebnisse erzielen.
• 🌐 Die Diskussion um die Anziehungskraft von Bitcoin ETFs für institutionelle Investoren übersieht oft die Tatsache, dass eine Vielzahl von Kleininvestoren massiv in Bitcoin investiert haben.
• 👴 Die Einführung von Bitcoin ETFs hat den Zugang zu Bitcoin für eine breitere Palette von Anlegern erleichtert, einschließlich Personen, die sich zuvor nicht mit der Technologie auseinandergesetzt hatten.
• 💡 Die Kritik an Bitcoin ETFs als reine 'Touristenattraktion' könnte durch zukünftige Innovationen auf der Blockchain selbst übertroffen werden, die eine bessere Benutzererfahrung und mehr Funktionen bieten.
• 🚀 Die kontinuierliche Anpassung und Verbesserung von Bitcoin, wie durch Layer 2 Lösungen und verbesserte Programmierbarkeit, könnte die Notwendigkeit von ETFs als Zugang zu Bitcoin in Zukunft reduzieren.
• 📚 Das Interesse an Bitcoin ETFs könnte auch auf ein erwartetes Bull Market in den Jahren 2024 und 2025 zurückzuführen sein, was die Nachfrage nach solchen Produkten steigern könnte.
• 🔮 Die langfristige Akzeptanz und der Erfolg von Bitcoin ETFs hängen von der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Marktes und der Anziehungskraft von Bitcoin für sowohl institutionelle als auch private Investoren ab.

Q & A

Welche Beträge haben Bitcoin ETFs innerhalb von 8 Tagen verloren?

Bitcoin ETFs verloren innerhalb von 8 Tagen über 1 Milliarde Dollar.

Was bedeuten die Daten für die Annahme von Bitcoin ETFs?

Die Daten deuten darauf hin, dass die größte Annahme bereits stattgefunden hat, und es gibt eine beträchtliche Zunahme von Kapitaleinlagen in die ETFs.

Wie erfolgreich waren die Bitcoin ETFs kurz nach ihrem Start?

Die Bitcoin ETFs wurden kurz nach ihrem Start am 11. Januar 2024 zu einigen der erfolgreichsten ETFs des Jahres.

Wie viel Geld floss in die Bitcoin ETFs bis zum August 2024 ein?

Bis zum August 2024 floss über 17 Milliarden Dollar in die Bitcoin ETFs ein.

Was war die erwartete Nettoeinlage für Bitcoin ETFs innerhalb eines Jahres?

Die erwartete Nettoeinlage für Bitcoin ETFs innerhalb eines Jahres war 24 Milliarden Dollar.

Wie viele Handelsteilnehmer halten Bitcoin ETFs nach Angaben von Jim Bianco?

Jim Bianco behauptet, dass weniger als 10% der Handelsteilnehmer Bitcoin ETFs halten.

Wie viele verschiedene institutionelle Besitzer hat das Bitcoin ETF ibit gemäß den Angaben von Eric Balchunas?

Das Bitcoin ETF ibit hat über 1000 institutionelle Besitzer, was als 'Freak of nature' in Bezug auf Eigentumsstruktur bezeichnet wurde.

Was könnte die Zukunft der Bitcoin ETFs aus der Sicht von Marone White ausmachen?

Die Zukunft der Bitcoin ETFs könnte von verbesserten On-Chain-Erfahrungen und Selbstverwaltung beeinflusst werden, was zu einer Verringerung des Interesses an ETFs führen könnte.

Welche Rolle spielen On-Chain-Innovationen wie Ordinals, RSK und Layer 2 Netzwerke für die Zukunft von Bitcoin?

On-Chain-Innovationen könnten die Benutzererfahrung verbessern und Defi-Funktionen ermöglichen, die die Angebote von ETFs übertreffen könnten.

Was könnte die wachsende Annahme von Bitcoin durch ETFs für die breitere Kryptowährungsumgebung bedeuten?

Die wachsende Annahme von Bitcoin durch ETFs könnte dazu beitragen, dass mehr Menschen in das Krypto-Ökosystem einsteigen und Bitcoin als Anlageklasse anerkennen.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Bitcoin ETFs: Eine kritische Betrachtung

Marone White diskutiert, dass Bitcoin ETFs innerhalb von acht Tagen mehr als eine Milliarde Dollar verloren haben. Trotz der negativen Wahrnehmung, dass Institutionen nicht einsteigen und ältere Investoren ('Boomers') nicht kaufen, argumentiert er, dass die Geschichte nicht so einfach ist. Er betont, dass ETFs ein Maß für Annahme sind und dass eine genaue Bewertung erforderlich ist, um ihre Erfolge zu messen. White präsentiert Daten, die darauf hindeuten, dass eine signifikante Annahme bereits stattfindet. Er analysiert Datenpunkte hinter institutionellem Kauf und diskutiert, warum institutionelle Annahme letztendlich nicht erforderlich sein könnte.

05:02

📈 Erfolgskontrolle der Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs wurden am 11. Januar 2024 eingeführt und waren schnell einige der bestperformenden ETFs des Jahres. Aaron Balchonis' Tweet vom 11. März 2024 betont, dass zwei der ETFs, eines von Black Rock und eines von Fidelity, in den Top 10 der monatlichen Flüsse für alle ETFs in der Branche rangiert sind. White zeigt, dass trotz eines Rückgangs von 1 Milliarde Dollar innerhalb von acht Tagen im September 2024, die Gesamtzufluss von 17 Milliarden Dollar für das Jahr beachtlich ist. Er vergleicht diese Zahlen mit den Erwartungen vor der Einführung der ETFs und stellt fest, dass die tatsächlichen Zahlen 70% der höchsten Erwartungen ausmachen.

10:03

🤔 Institutionelle Annahme: Wahr oder Mythos?

Jim Bianco, von Bianco Research, behauptet, dass die Bitcoin ETFs ein Misserfolg bei der institutionellen Annahme sind und eher ein 'Touristenwerkzeug' darstellen. White stellt jedoch verschiedene Punkte zur Diskussion, einschließlich der Tatsache, dass die durchschnittliche Handelsmenge für Bitcoin ETFs deutlich kleiner ist als für andere ETFs, was auf eine geringere institutionelle Beteiligung hindeutet. Er diskutiert auch die Bedeutung von institutionellen Besitzern und zeigt, dass trotz einer geringen Beteiligung von Investmentberatern und Hedgefonds, die Anzahl der institutionellen Besitzer von ibit mit 661 Inhabern beachtlich ist. White argumentiert, dass die institutionelle Annahme, obwohl sie nicht so hoch ist, wie man es sich wünschen könnte, dennoch stattfindet.

15:04

🌐 Bitcoin für alle: Die zukünftige Annahme

White betont, dass die tatsächliche Geschichte der Annahme von Bitcoin durch ETFs in der breiteren Öffentlichkeit liegt. Er erwähnt, dass 'normale' Menschen Milliarden in Bitcoin investiert haben, was auf eine signifikante Zunahme von Einzelhändlern hindeutet. White diskutiert auch, wie ETFs es Menschen ermöglichen, die bisher nicht bereit waren, sich mit der Technologie von Kryptowährungen auseinanderzusetzen, nun einfach über ein Handelskonto in den Markt einzusteigen. Er schließt mit der Ansicht, dass die Annahme von Bitcoin durch ETFs ein Indikator für zukünftige Trends ist und dass die Verbesserung der On-Chain-Erfahrung und die Selbstverwahrung Bitcoin in der Zukunft möglicherweise die Notwendigkeit von ETFs überflüssig machen könnten.

Highlights

Bitcoin ETFs experienced a loss of over $1 billion in 8 days, raising questions about their success.

ETFs are considered a test of adoption, and their performance should be measured accordingly.

Despite criticism, data suggests significant adoption may already be happening.

Bitcoin ETFs launched on January 11th, 2024, and quickly became some of the best-performing ETFs of the year.

By March 11th, two Bitcoin ETFs ranked in the top 10 for flows across all ETFs.

By August, Bitcoin ETFs had seen over $17 billion in inflows.

The narrative that institutions have not arrived may be misleading.

Expectations for ETF inflows were set at $24 billion within a year, but $17 billion was reached by August.

The average inflow per trading day is about $10.1 million, suggesting continued growth.

Critics argue that the ETFs have not attracted institutional investors as expected.

Jim Bianco's research suggests that the ETFs are not an adoption vehicle but a small retail tool.

Despite outflows, the total inflow for the year still stands at $17 billion.

The average trade size for Bitcoin ETFs is significantly smaller than that of other ETFs like gold.

Institutional ownership of Bitcoin ETFs is lower than expected, with investment advisors holding only about 10%.

Bitcoin ETFs have a diverse range of holders, with over 1,000 institutional holders for ibit alone.

The real story may be the significant number of retail investors entering the Bitcoin ecosystem through ETFs.

ETFs provide an easy entry point for those who are Bitcoin curious but hesitant to manage their own crypto custody.

The future of Bitcoin ETFs may be challenged by improved on-chain experiences and self-custody options.

Innovations like Ordinals, RSK, and Layer 2 solutions could enhance Bitcoin's capabilities beyond what ETFs offer.

Transcripts

hey there it's Marone white and did you

hear that the Bitcoin ETFs lost over $1

billion in 8 days I mean what a failure

seems the institutions never arrived the

Boomers aren't buy at least that's the

narrative making the rounds but I don't

think that's the entire story ETFs are a

test of adoption any criticism needs to

accurately measure if they've succeeded

on that front and believe it or not the

data may suggest the biggest adoption is

already happening so let's review how

successful the ETFs have been today look

at the data points behind institutional

buying and discuss why institutional

adoption might not be needed in the end

but first we're going to look at the

flows so the Bitcoin ETFs launched

January 11th

2024 and quickly became some of the best

performing ETF of the year and just two

months later in March 11th we have a

tweet here from Aaron balconis talking

specifically about that he says two of

the ETS ibit black Rock's offering and

fbtc Fidel's offering are ranked three

and four in the top 10 for flows for

march across all ETFs and I think part

of this other part of this Twitter

thread he talks about the fact that

maybe some of this could been expected

six to nine months or even a year end

but to come as early as it did it's just

well it's just incredible so already you

know in March we were talking about how

successful these were being now you fast

forward a little bit take it all the way

to August and you experienced over 17

billion in inflow I want to show you

this next slide this this is an image

that comes from Far Side investors they

maintain about a two-e rolling average

or rolling schedule of the the actual

inflows for each of the ETFs you can see

here on the bottom it actually has the

flows inflows coming into ibit fbtc IIT

having about 20 billion and if you go

all the way to the right you can see

gbtc grayscale which had a which had

head rise right start started with a

larger number it's seeing 20 billion in

outflow even with that said you have

about just 17 billion of inflow for the

year and this includes the weeks that we

talked about that billion dollars that

came out in the eight days in September

so I mean under any measure we're

talking about 17 billions of dollars

it's a lot of money so now we're in

crypto a lot of people think to

themselves well 17 billion that's not a

lot well you need to put the context in

to what the expectations were going into

the ETF launch you see a lot of people

have been talking about the

institutional launch or the ETF launch

for a long longtime years in fact and

you had the Skeptics who saying it

wasn't going to do well at all and then

at the beginning before it even launched

you had people starting to talk about

what those numbers would actually look

like and Benjamin on a recent episode of

trading pit he actually explained what

the expectations look like let's take a

look at that clip to hear what people

were actually thinking before these

actually went live so the whole

expectation when Black Rock filed for

the ETFs uh the 2024 expectation even

from Eric and a lot of of prime

brokerages almost the majority of the

ODC debts coinbase all included the

expectation was 24 billion on a hyper

optimistic upper limit actually so um

that was supposed to be end of

20124 that was the expectation that in a

period of 12 months we may hit 24

billion in net

inflows if all goes great so for a full

year what they were looking for was 24

billion now we're at the we're in August

and actually the table I just shared

here it's actually in September you have

17 billion which is roughly about 70% of

the highest expectation just to give you

a little bit more perspective on what

this might mean if you look down here

the average inflow is about 101 million

per trading day if you take that and

look at the the remainder of the year if

that continued that'd be about 11

billion which would net out to about 28

billion exceeding the highest water Mark

that they had by 4 billion I think by

those measures you'd have to say that

these ETFs have been a success from an

adoption perspective but to be fair a

lot of the discussion isn't just about

flows it's a question of who's actually

buying these ETFs and that's where a lot

of the criticism has come from they're

saying are the institutions actually

buying well now According to Jim biano

Bianco micro research the answer is no

see after the the the one .2 billion

redemptions that came out in September

the ones that you're seeing right here

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the show Jim put out this this tweet

which was a uh I think about eight

different tweets actually trying to

summarize or detail the points he was

making that these ETFs have been you

know for lack of a better term a

non-success they've been a failure on

the front of actually getting uh

institutional adoption he says it's not

an adoption vehicle instead of small

tourist tool and onchain is returning to

trafi so he's calling $ 17 billion in uh

infl flows a uh tourist tool but we're

going to dismiss that for a moment I

want to go through the the Four Points

he notes Here which summarize all eight

of his tweets says inflows are now

outflows yep you're going to see the

outflows agree with that hollers have

recorded losses well yeah that's true

but anybody who buys an ETF and then

sees the price decline is going to have

unrealized losses on that asset that

applies to any asset not just Bitcoin

you can dismiss that advisors are less

than 10% the Holdings and the average

trate size is now 12,000 these are

interesting points that we can actually

get into let's actually understand does

this support his point that no

institutions have arrived and it's just

a small tourist tool let's get into it

so the first I want to actually start

with his discussion on oh let me bring

this up all right the discussion that he

has here about small purchases so what

he's done here is he's got a chart he

has uh several different ETFs on here

including the Spy the triple q and what

I think is the most relevant which is a

gold ETF GLD the very the y- axis that

we see here these are actually trade

amounts uh and the average trade amount

and then this is over a period of time

so you see the larger ETFs you've got uh

spy you got the triple Q then the middle

part you actually have the gold one uh

which actually is in gold and on the

bottom you see Bitcoin so he's

absolutely right very much smaller

amounts being applied to bitcoin on a

fairly consistent basis we're seeing

consistent purchase ing uh and and not a

lot of variation on the actual amounts

that are coming into the the ETFs and

definitely much smaller when you compare

to some of these other ETFs I mean if

you look at gold gold comes at about 60k

per trade whereas the Bitcoin ETFs are

about 12,000 that's about a 5x

difference but then you should ask the

question is that the whole story not

entirely when you actually look at some

of the other metrics around these ETFs

Bitcoin or at least ibit versus gold

actually Stacks up pretty well I mean if

you look at volume here you've got 26

million daily share volume for ibit

versus only 6 million for GLD and the

Daily Dollar volume for ibet is sitting

at just under a billion whereas GLD is

over 1.4 roughly 1.4 so it's definitely

smaller but it's not as if it's a 5x

difference or 10x difference bear in

mind GLD is about 20 years old and iit's

got about eight months so here Jim is is

definitely pointing out a correct

statistic but he's not giv a full part

of the story to try and really talk to

you about are these people really you

know buying these are they really retail

people uh and does this actually say

that there's no adoption I think there

is adoption but fair enough it's

actually smaller smaller purchases

whether these are serious buyers or not

time will tell but let's actually get

into the next part that he's actually

going into which is are the institutions

actually coming and here I think he

actually has a better argument uh that

actually again has a few holes in it so

what he does he's got a chart here which

I believe is going to be coming from um

uh well it's it's some reporting uh

maybe it's coming from a Bloomberg

terminal uh but what it actually shows

is for ibit uh which I've included here

he also does it I believe for Fidelity

and for Grace scale it does a breakdown

of the institution types that actually

own the ETF and here he has the hedge

fund managers which are about 8%

investment buyers are 7% Brokers of 2%

all the others are very very small

number the M middle column is actual

shares and then the percentage ownership

is going to be the outstanding shares

the total shares outstanding so Jim

looks at this and says listen you don't

have any investment advisor it's only 7%

8% going to hedge funds and they're more

doing speculation and brokerages own

being nothing and we got you know maybe

10% if you calculate all the other uh

institution types owning

this well there's an interesting point

of rebuttal here which is is yes this is

only 7% going to institutions but how

valuable is it to the marketplace and

here Matt howan the CIO bitwise put some

context around this you see he points

out that the amount that's actually gone

in from investment advisor perspect

specifically equals about $11.45 billion

and that $1.45 billion if you look at

all the ETFs launched in

2024 it's actually the second largest

amount going to investment advisers beat

out beaten out by just one ETF that he

notes Here which is

klmt so you actually have quite a bit

going into investment advisors when you

compare ibit to the other ETFs that are

out there but there's actually more to

the diversity story and this comes in

from a tweet again from Eric balconis

the um excuse me a senior ETF Analyst at

Bloomberg he points out that in his own

words the ETFs are freak of nature when

it comes to ownership and this is a

tweet he put out just uh in September

9th Bitcoin ETFs collectively have over

1,000 institutional holders ibit

specifically has 661 holders well how

unique is that well if you compare it to

the other ETFs that that launch within a

given year it's not uncommon for them to

have just two holders which he notes

Here got 661 holders of ibit versus two

for the common ETF and again the whole

conversation here is about adoption and

whether or not the institutions are

buying it well it's important to note

that you have 661 holders of these ETFs

maybe in very small amounts but they are

holding something so when Jim's saying

that there's no there's no adoption from

an institution perspective he's he's not

really adding that context and I think

that's important two more points here

you know when we talk about the

allocation many people will say this is

a highrisk asset very volatile Le based

on historic parameters therefore you

should allocate a very small amount to

it 1 to 2% of a portfolio this can lead

to average much smaller average purchase

amounts right and we're still getting up

to speed again we're still in the 8

months here so while Jim does have a

point that it's not as if we have 50%

adoption by institutions of these assets

I think he's not giving a full picture

of the actual institution adoption but

what about from a retail perspective

because I think this is the actual story

that's not getting any air time at all

and it needs to because what we're

really seeing here is that normies are

buying Bitcoin in the billions so if you

do you know back in the napkin

calculations you got 17 billion in flows

that have come in divided by 12,000 the

average trade that's 1.4 million is that

1.4 million individuals that have come

into Bitcoin I don't think so it

probably needs to be discounted people

buying multiple trades but how much of

that is an individual buyer did it did

it on board 300,000 500,000 even 100,000

that's a significant number of retail

people that are coming into the

ecosystem and the point is that why are

they coming into the ecosystem now

rather than not doing it before well we

actually have an explanation for this

and this again comes from Benjamin on a

recent episode of trading pit where he

explains well how his uncle actually

bought the ETF and so let's have a look

at that clip now a lot of these guys are

starting to buy the ETF I know this

because my uncle bought a Bitcoin ETF

the unle has not for years yeah like I

we were neigh he never bought a piece of

Bitcoin but he's bought a Bitcoin ETF at

58k right maybe he's wrong but that

doesn't matter he says it's a long-term

hold now for him why the impression that

the ETF vehicles have given him look you

can get it and you can put it in your

brokerage account you can keep it don't

worry about the custody and if you die

it it can you know go to your kids don't

so that opens up a very different tour

what Benjamin's really pointing out is

that these ETFs are giving people that

were Bitcoin curious a way to get into

the market they weren't willing to cross

the technical Chasm to understand seed

phrases to understand you know how how

to manage this from a custody

perspective what happens if you die and

you need to pass it on to people they

didn't want to do that but once it's in

their brokerage account and they can

simply hit buy from an ETF perspective

they're in so we're now opening up

Bitcoin to an entire class of people and

I think you could call the institutional

Bitcoin is being adopted right adoption

is actually happening and by focusing

just on the institutions we're missing

the broader point which is that more

people are getting into the ecosystem

now what does this look like going

forward great question listen the story

isn't over and Jim may be proven right

in the coming months or years if the

flows slower the trends reverse and the

momentum of early 2024 comes to a close

in mate I don't know it's possible that

some of the the bullishness in 2024 is

all because they're expecting a you know

Bull Run in 2024 and 2025 and if that

doesn't materialize They Run to the

Hills that's that's possible Right but

from right now looking at the data as we

have I think it's pretty hard to argue

that we're not seeing actual material

adoption of Bitcoin being you know the

tourist people as Jim calling it that

are just going to come and wait and see

how well it does be it the people who

call it just fake Bitcoin or what I'm

calling institutional Bitcoin you have

buyers they're coming in their uncles

their aunts maybe even grandmas I don't

know but adoption is actually happening

and I want to leave you with one final

perspective on this that I think may be

valuable and hardening to any of those

who are really interested in

decentralization the real threat to

these ETFs and their performance May at

some point come from better onchain

experiences and self custody see I in a

recent interview with Isabelle Fox and

Duke we discussed the potential of

ordinals ruins brc2 and a host of l2s

for Bitcoin such as the art Network that

can radically enhance what Bitcoin can

deliver from what it does today really

giving us some level of programmability

which today you know to date has only

been available on other L1 such as

ethereum and salana and while it's still

early days and it's all very speculative

these projects might actually deliver

better ux experiences the kind of

experiences that finally eliminate the

technical hurdles and offer Defi and

other capabilities that exceed what

trafi can do today and at that point it

may be too expensive to actually hold

your Bitcoin with the ETFs and then we

won't really care about the institutions

will we all right well time will tell I

suggest you subscribe to the channel as

we bring on guests and we bring on these

ideas we talk about them every week

discuss them and other projects that are

going to be relevant to the continual

adoption in the space but for now this

is Marone white see you next time