How Much Money Do You Need to Start Arbitrage / Positive EV Betting?
Summary
TLDRThis video script discusses the financial requirements for starting arbitrage and plus EV betting in sports. It advises beginners to start with a small bankroll, like $100, to learn the ropes and avoid significant losses. The speaker recommends a minimum of $1,000 to $2,000 for practical purposes, emphasizing the importance of maximizing expected value and return on investment. The script also introduces Odds Jam, a software for finding arbitrage opportunities, and touches on the Kelly criterion for calculating bet sizes to balance risk and reward. The speaker warns against betting too much to prevent bookies from restricting accounts and suggests using multiple bookie accounts to capitalize on opportunities and deposit match offers.
Takeaways
- 💡 The minimum recommended starting bankroll for arbitrage and plus EV betting is $100, but for practical purposes, $1,000 to $2,000 is advised.
- 📈 Starting with a small bankroll allows beginners to learn and minimize losses from mistakes.
- 🚫 Avoid betting more than $500 on a single bet to prevent bookies from potentially canceling bets or restricting accounts.
- 📊 Arbitrage opportunities can offer a guaranteed profit, albeit usually at a lower percentage (around 1-2%).
- 💰 The expected profit increases with the size of the bets placed, but it's crucial to balance risk and reward.
- 🔍 Using tools like Odds Jam can help identify arbitrage and positive EV betting opportunities from various bookies.
- 💼 The Kelly criterion is a strategy to determine bet sizing based on maximizing expected returns while minimizing bankruptcy risk.
- 📈 Positive EV bets can offer higher expected returns, sometimes up to 19%, but they come with more risk and require careful calculation.
- 🔗 Having multiple bookie accounts with funds is essential for capturing arbitrage and positive EV opportunities as they arise.
- 💸 Bookies often offer deposit match bonuses, which can be capitalized on with a larger starting bankroll to gain extra funds.
Q & A
What is the minimum bankroll recommended for starting arbitrage and plus EV betting?
-Theoretically, you can start with as little as $100 or even $50, but practically, it is recommended to start with at least $1,000 or ideally $2,000 as your starting bankroll.
Why is it suggested to start with a small amount in arbitrage and plus EV betting?
-Starting with a small amount allows beginners to learn without significant risk. It helps in understanding the process and minimizing losses from mistakes like betting on the wrong market or outcome.
What is the potential risk of betting too much money on a single bet according to the script?
-Bookies may not allow large bets to go through, potentially cancelling them or restricting the account, which could lead to significant losses in potential profits.
What is an arbitrage opportunity and how does it work?
-An arbitrage opportunity is a situation where you can bet on all possible outcomes of an event and guarantee a profit regardless of the result. It involves placing bets with different bookmakers to cover all outcomes and lock in a profit.
How does the script suggest using software like Odds Jam for arbitrage and plus EV betting?
-Odds Jam is recommended for finding arbitrage and positive expected value opportunities by getting odds from different bookies and calculating the best bets to maximize profits.
What is the Kelly criterion mentioned in the script, and how does it help in betting?
-The Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize expected value while minimizing the risk of bankruptcy. It calculates the percentage of the bankroll to bet based on the potential return and risk.
Why is it important to have multiple bookie accounts for arbitrage and plus EV betting?
-Having multiple bookie accounts allows you to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities and positive EV bets that may not always be available on the same bookmaker. It also enables you to capture deposit match offers for additional funds.
What is the significance of the 'edge' in plus EV betting as discussed in the script?
-The 'edge' in plus EV betting refers to the percentage advantage a bettor has over the bookmaker. A higher edge indicates a greater expected return on the bet, which is crucial for long-term profitability.
How does the script suggest managing your bankroll when starting with arbitrage and plus EV betting?
-The script suggests starting with a bankroll of at least $1,000 to $2,000, adjusting bets according to the Kelly criterion, and updating the bankroll as profits are made to increase potential profits over time.
What is the potential daily profit from arbitrage and plus EV betting as discussed in the script?
-The potential daily profit from arbitrage is around 2% of the bankroll, while for plus EV betting, it could be as high as 7% of the bankroll, depending on the opportunities and the effectiveness of the betting strategy.
Outlines
💰 Starting Capital for Arbitrage and Plus EV Betting
The speaker addresses the common question about the required starting capital for arbitrage and plus EV (expected value) betting. They clarify that while theoretically one could start with as little as $100 or even $50, practically, they recommend a minimum of $1,000 to $2,000. This amount is suggested to maximize potential net profits and to learn the ropes without risking significant capital. The speaker emphasizes the importance of starting small to understand betting mechanics and avoid costly mistakes. They introduce 'Odds Jam', a software for finding arbitrage and plus EV opportunities, and provide a discount code for the audience. An example of an arbitrage opportunity is given, demonstrating how even a $1 bet can yield a small profit, and the potential for larger profits as the betting amount increases.
📈 Scaling Up with Arbitrage and Plus EV Betting
This paragraph delves into the practical aspects of scaling up betting with a focus on arbitrage and plus EV betting. The speaker advises against betting too small, as it may not cover operational costs, and too large, as it could lead to bookies canceling bets or restricting accounts. They suggest a sweet spot of $100 to $500 per bet. The speaker discusses the average percentage edge for arbitrage, which is typically not very high, and introduces the Kelly criterion as a tool for calculating optimal betting amounts to maximize returns while minimizing bankruptcy risk. 'Odds Jam' is highlighted again for its ability to integrate the Kelly criterion into its betting tool. Examples are given to illustrate how different bets with varying edges affect the recommended betting amounts and expected returns. The speaker also touches on the importance of having a sufficient bankroll to capitalize on multiple betting opportunities and the benefits of updating the bankroll as profits accumulate.
🔗 Closing Remarks and Call to Action
In the final paragraph, the speaker wraps up the discussion with a call to action, encouraging viewers to like and subscribe for more sports betting content and money-making tips. They remind viewers of the 'Odds Jam' discount offer and express well wishes for the audience, indicating the end of the video.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Arbitrage
💡Plus EV Betting
💡Bankroll
💡Odds Jam
💡Kelly Criterion
💡Bookmakers
💡Deposit Match Offers
💡Profit on Turnover
💡Risk-Free
💡Edge
💡Betting Tools
Highlights
Theoretical minimum starting bankroll for arbitrage and plus EV betting is as low as $100 or even $50.
Practically recommended starting bankroll is at least $1,000 or ideally $2,000 for beginners.
Starting with a small bankroll helps maximize expected value or return in net profits.
For complete beginners, starting with one-dollar bets is suggested to learn without significant risk.
Odds Jam is recommended as a tool for finding arbitrage and plus EV opportunities in the US.
Using a $1 bet as an example, the potential profit from an arbitrage opportunity is demonstrated.
Scaling up the bet size from $1 to $10 increases the potential profit from 13 cents to $1.31.
Higher bet sizes lead to higher expected profits, but also higher risks.
Arbitrage opportunities typically offer a lower percentage edge, around 1-2%.
A $2,000 bankroll is sufficient for most arbitrage opportunities and minimizes the risk of significant bankroll damage.
Bookies may restrict accounts for large bets, so a sweet spot of $100 to $500 per bet is suggested.
The Kelly criterion is introduced for calculating optimal bet sizes to maximize returns while minimizing risk.
Odds Jam includes a feature for the Kelly criterion to help with bet sizing in plus EV betting.
A higher bankroll allows for larger bets and higher expected returns in plus EV betting.
An edge of 7% in plus EV betting with a $2,000 bankroll could yield an expected profit of $140 per day.
Having multiple bookie accounts with funds is necessary for capturing arbitrage and plus EV opportunities.
Deposit match offers from bookies can be capitalized on with a larger starting bankroll.
A $2,000 starting bankroll is recommended to justify the time spent finding and placing bets.
Transcripts
how much money do you need to start
arbitrage and plus ev betting this is a
question i get asked very commonly and
like most things on this channel i can
explain the answer to this question
mathematically but i have to break it to
you first arbitrage and plus ev betting
can be a little bit of a grind it's not
as simple as
putting a few dollars on a 10 leg multi
that your friend says is a guaranteed
and hoping that it goes and wins i'm not
going to beat around the bush so i'll
just give you guys the answer straight
away theoretically you can start off
with as little as 100 or even a 50
bankroll if you just want to learn in
fact for those completely new to
arbitrage or plus ev betting i actually
recommend you just start off with a very
small amount however practically i'll
recommend you start off with at least
one thousand dollars or if possible two
thousand dollars as you're starting
bankroll which is actually what i
recommend for my sports betting course
any more than that and it's probably not
necessary i'll explain in detail the
logic behind this number in a little bit
but the main idea of it is to try to
just maximize the expected value or
return in net profits that you can
potentially make let's see how we can
learn with a small starting bank roll
first you might actually have no idea
what a bet even is or how to place a bet
so instead of sizing up right away let's
start off small
and because you probably don't know what
you are doing start off with like just
one dollar bets and you can see what
kind of things will happen if you make a
mistake such as you bet on the wrong
market or bet on the opposite outcome
instead then there's no biggie the
maximum you're risking is just one
dollar worst case scenario let's say you
make 50 of these mistakes in a row which
really shouldn't happen but even with
that you've only really lost just 50
so let's take a look at an arbitrage
opportunity and see how much money we
can make with just spending a single
dollar to demonstrate i'm using odds jam
which is a great arbitrage and plus ev
calculator software for those in the
united states which gets the odds
straight from all the different bookies
out there and finds the arbitrage and
positive expected value opportunities i
can confidently recommend odds jam to
anyone who is residing in the us and is
keen to start off with their betting
journeys to get 25 off your first month
you can either use the link in the
description down below or in the card
somewhere up here and enter in the code
shane25 to be able to get 25 off for
your first month so this is an example
of an arbitrage on their site
so let's take a look at this example on
atlanta braves this is pittsburgh
pirates
it's a baseball band game with an
arbitrage opportunity on zak thompson um
number of strikeouts can be over 3.5 or
under 3.5 we can cover all the outcomes
in this match
so let's see if we put one dollar on
each of them
so if we bet one dollar on over 3.5 on
the first bookmaker with the odds of 116
then if it wins and we make 2.16 back
we would also need to cover the other
outcome to get the arbitrage opportunity
we would bet a dollar and three cents
it's being recommended
and if that wins we make 2016 cents but
lose the dollar so either way we've
deployed two dollars and three cents
we're guaranteed to get two dollars and
16 cents back so we get an overall
profit of 13 cents
and that is a 6.08
um
profit on turnover as shown here
in this percent icon
so that was for a one dollar bet
now let's say we could do ten dollars
instead of the one dollar that we had
initially while we're not making only 13
cents now we're making a dollar 31 with
a total stake of 10 times what we had
before
if we put 100 then we make a 13
guaranteed profit
if we put 200 then we make a guaranteed
profit of 26.
if we put 500 we get a guaranteed profit
of 65. we will need to deploy 1014
and so on
so we can see the more we're betting the
more expected profit that we can expect
to make
and we can see for new york these are
all the arbitrage opportunities out
there
some are very good five percent or six
percent but generally they're around
close to one point nine percent or
sometimes a bit higher than two percent
and new ones will come in each day some
of these might the bookies might change
their pricing and disappear but you can
generally find a lot of these
opportunities for at least two percent
so this is a great way to wrap your head
around the mathematics and play around
with things with just a small dollar
amount of cash now personally i wouldn't
recommend putting more than 500 ever on
a single bet bookies can play very dirty
if your bet is too big they could
potentially not let your bet go through
and say it's pending or just cancel your
bet or even worse they could even
restrict your account and that's going
to cost you a lot more in potential
profits in the long run so you don't
want to be betting too small as you're
going to be making less than the
electricity actually takes to run your
computer but you don't want to be
betting too much either so around 100 to
maybe 500 is probably the sweet spot if
you're able to find a few of these
opportunities each day which is very
likely then your 2 000 in bankroll is
more than sufficient to cover all of it
now we can see the percentage edge for
arbitrage is generally not that high if
we have an edge of 2 on average and we
deploy our entire 2k each day then our
expected profit or in this case it's
actually guaranteed and risk-free then
we're still only going to be making
forty dollars of profit each day two
percent might not sound like a lot but
it's two percent each day not two
percent per year like most savings
accounts out there but still what if we
want to make more we could go with the
plus ev method but it does become a
little bit more complicated as there's a
bit more risk and mathematical
calculations that become involved
luckily there is something called the
kelly criterion which helps us to
calculate exactly how much we should be
betting on every positive ev opportunity
that we find it calculates the
percentage of our bankroll to bet based
on maximizing the expected returns we
are going to be getting but also
minimizing the risk that we will end up
being bankrupt if we bet too much of our
bankroll each time luckily this is also
built into odds jam so let's go through
an example so the first thing i have to
do is set my bankroll so if i go to my
profile if i go to bet settings i will
see a starting bankroll let's say i have
two thousand dollars and i just keep it
simple and set my kelly multiplier to
one
so now instead of the arbitrage section
we can go to betting tools and go to the
positive ev tab
now you can see the percentage or
expected return or edge we have
is a lot higher now we're no longer
making about two percent on average
we can get opportunities all the way up
to nineteen percent and there's a plenty
of opportunities above five percent and
around ten percent
so let's take a look at this calculator
i have my kelly multiplier set to one
and this is the bet that is positive
expected value with a nineteen point
seven percent edge
it's recommending me to bet 145.89
or 7.29 percent of my bankroll this
means if i'm betting 145.89
then my expected returns in the long run
are
145.89 times 19.7 percent
which is close to about 30 dollars for
this positive ev bet
if i go to this one i can see it's
recommending me to bet less because the
opportunity is not as good and the odds
are higher so it's only recommending me
to bet 114 dollars and 80 cents and
therefore my expected return on this one
is 114 times 11.49
or
around 12 dollars
it also has a neat feature of just
straight up adding this to the pet
tracker if you want to do the bet which
you can track over here on your bet
tracker bets tab so the key takeaway is
if my betting bankroll was less then
each time i would be needing to bet less
to minimize the risk of a significant
damage to my bankroll and so because i'm
betting less i would expect to make less
in the long run now let's say we deploy
our 2k bankroll each day this time on
positive ev opportunities which has an
edge of generally let's say seven
percent then our expected profit is two
thousand times seven
and that gives us a expected return um
not guaranteed this time of one hundred
and forty dollars per day this is a lot
better now and as we make more money say
we make 500 in our first week then we
can update our bankroll to 2500 and this
will allow us to slowly size up our bets
more and more as we make more and more
one thousand dollars two thousand
dollars is just the amount you will need
to get your expected potential profits
up to the amount where you can justify
spending the roughly one hour or so each
day finding and placing these bets
another reason i recommend two thousand
dollars is that to arbitrage
successfully or even find positive ev
opportunities which might not always
appear on the same bookie you will need
to have multiple bookie accounts open
and have funds across all of them so you
can jump on an opportunity when it
arises which means you can't just have a
few hundred dollars sitting in one
bookie and that's it very commonly
bookies might attempt new customers or
even existing customers with deposit
match offers like this one here from
ladbrokes so if you only have 50 you're
not going to be able to capture the
offer in its entirety and you'll be
missing out on an extra 50 of free money
odds jam has a detailed list of all the
bookies offering these special deposit
matches in the united states so you can
just make some free money right away
just by depositing once again you can
check out odds jam in the link in the
description below or in the card that
should appear somewhere here and you can
get 25 off your first month by entering
in shane 25 in check out if you enjoyed
this video then make sure to give it a
big like down below and subscribe to
this channel to not miss out on my other
sports betting content and money making
tips that i have lined up for you guys
as always take care and i'll see you
guys in the next video
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