Intelligence in the Age of AI with new CTO of the CIA

a16z
11 Mar 202451:52

Summary

TLDRIn a thought-provoking discussion, a16z General Partner Martin Casado and a16z Enterprise Editor Derick Harris converse with Nund Mulchandani, the first-ever CTO of the CIA, about the future of defense and intelligence in the age of AI. The conversation delves into the evolving relationship between AI and analysts, the challenges governments face in keeping pace with exponential technology, and the impact on both offense and defense strategies. The discussion highlights the transformative potential of AI in intelligence work, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to leveraging this powerful tool while maintaining the human element crucial to the field.

Takeaways

  • 🌐 The rapid advancement of AI technology is transforming various industries, including defense and intelligence, with the potential to reimagine job roles and tasks.
  • 💡 AI's impact on the intelligence community is not just about automating existing tasks but also about the potential for new, creative applications that were previously unimaginable.
  • 🔄 The CIA is adapting to the AI era by focusing on three key areas: operational efficiency, analytical support, and external engagement through platforms like podcasts and videos.
  • 🛡️ While AI offers new capabilities, it also brings challenges such as the need to detect and counter deepfakes and other AI-generated deceptions.
  • 🤖 Generative AI, like large language models, can be used as a tool for analysts, but there is still a need for human oversight and decision-making, especially in critical areas.
  • 🚀 The US government and intelligence agencies are at a crossroads with AI, needing to balance the adoption of new technologies with security, ethical, and policy considerations.
  • 🌟 AI's role in national security is not just about offense but also defense, and the technology's democratization means that it can be used by anyone, not just sophisticated agencies.
  • 🤔 The intelligence community is grappling with the question of how AI will change the equilibrium between offense and defense in the context of national security.
  • 🔍 The CIA is exploring the use of AI in a measured way, recognizing the need for experimentation and learning while also understanding the limitations and risks of the technology.
  • 🌐 The future of AI in intelligence is not just about the technology itself but also about how humans interact with it, and the cultural shifts needed within agencies to fully leverage its potential.

Q & A

  • What is the main focus of the CIA's technology shift under Director Burns?

    -The main focus of the CIA's technology shift under Director Burns is from CT to great power competition, with a significant emphasis on dealing with the amorphous entity called technology.

  • What are the three key areas the CIA is focusing on with the new emphasis on technology?

    -The three key areas the CIA is focusing on are the creation of the China Mission Center, the transnational technology Mission Center (T2MC), and the establishment of the CTO role.

  • How is AI impacting the intelligence community?

    -AI is impacting the intelligence community by enabling the detection of patterns in large amounts of data, automating routine tasks, and potentially transforming the way analysts gather and process information.

  • What is the 'pull model' versus the 'push model' in the context of AI and data analysis?

    -The 'pull model' refers to the traditional approach where analysts had to come up with queries to find information, whereas the 'push model' involves AI technologies pushing relevant information to analysts based on their needs and focus areas.

  • What is the concern regarding AI's ability to amplify biases in the intelligence community?

    -The concern is that AI algorithms, which are designed to please users, may inadvertently amplify the biases of analysts, leading to a 'rabbit hole' effect where analysts are drawn into confirmation biases and远离from objective analysis.

  • How does the CIA plan to use AI in its operations and analysis?

    -The CIA plans to use AI as a tool to enhance the effectiveness of its case officers and operations teams, as well as to aid analysts in discovering patterns in data. However, it emphasizes that AI will not replace the need for human intelligence and critical thinking.

  • What is the significance of the 'co-pilot model' in the context of AI and intelligence work?

    -The 'co-pilot model' refers to the use of AI to assist analysts with routine tasks and to provide support in their work, without replacing the human element of intelligence gathering and analysis.

  • How does the CIA view the potential for AI to create new information?

    -The CIA believes that while AI can find and routinize existing information, it is unclear whether current AI systems can truly produce new information or thought, especially in the context of intelligence work which often involves 'tail reasoning' or thinking outside the norm.

  • What is the 'hallucination problem' in AI and how does it relate to intelligence work?

    -The 'hallucination problem' refers to AI's tendency to generate responses or information that are not commonly represented in its training data, leading to errors. In intelligence work, this level of uncertainty is unacceptable, especially in operational contexts where explainability and accuracy are crucial.

  • How does the CIA approach the challenge of analysts reimagining their jobs in the face of AI advancements?

    -The CIA encourages its analysts to think beyond mere automation and efficiency gains, challenging them to consider how they can reimagine their roles in 5 to 10 years as AI technologies continue to develop and become more integrated into their work.

  • What is the role of open source technology in the CIA's AI strategy?

    -Open source technology plays a significant role in the CIA's AI strategy, allowing for flexibility and customization to meet specific agency needs. However, the CIA also recognizes the challenges of integrating and securing open source solutions in their operational environment.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Introduction to AI's Impact on Jobs and National Security

The paragraph discusses the transformative power of AI, emphasizing its potential to redefine jobs and national security. It highlights the shift from traditional job automation concerns to the need for reimagining roles in light of AI advancements. The conversation also touches on the American dynamism and the collaborative effort between Silicon Valley, the government, and the defense sector to harness AI's capabilities.

05:00

🤖 AI's Disruption and Its Role in the Intelligence Community

This section delves into AI's disruption across industries, with a focus on its impact on the intelligence community. It discusses the historical significance of AI in intelligence work and explores the implications of generative AI on intelligence agencies. The speakers consider the ease of detecting AI-generated content and the shift towards more human-focused, less technology-centric approaches to intelligence problems.

10:02

🌐 AI's Impact on Analytic and Operational Sides of Intelligence

The paragraph examines the dual impact of AI on the analytic and operational aspects of intelligence work. It contrasts the operational side, characterized by spy-versus-spy dynamics, with the analytic side, which involves big data and pattern recognition. The conversation highlights the revolutionary potential of AI in uncovering patterns and the challenges of avoiding bias in analysis.

15:02

🔄 The Evolution of AI in the Intelligence Agency's Strategy

This section discusses the integration of AI within the intelligence agency's strategy, focusing on its use cases and the experimental approach to its implementation. It emphasizes the importance of not spreading AI applications indiscriminately and the need for thoughtful consideration of its applications. The paragraph also touches on the agency's public acknowledgment of using AI and the push for employees to reimagine their roles with AI's assistance.

20:02

🤔 Reflections on AI's Future Role in Intelligence Analysis

The paragraph contemplates the future role of AI in intelligence analysis, considering the current limitations of AI models and their potential to complement analysts' work. It discusses the concept of 'tail reasoning' and the challenges of applying AI to unique, exceptional scenarios. The speakers also reflect on the transformation within the intelligence community and the cultural shifts necessitated by the advent of AI.

25:03

🤝 Encouraging Collaboration Between Tech and Government

This section emphasizes the importance of fostering collaboration between the tech industry and the government, particularly in the context of AI and national security. It discusses the need for a cultural shift within the intelligence community to embrace technology and the challenges of integrating commercial technologies into government operations. The conversation also touches on the potential for public-private partnerships and the importance of understanding and adapting to emerging technologies.

30:04

📈 Policymaking in the Era of Emerging Technologies

The paragraph explores the complexities of policymaking in the face of emerging technologies like AI. It highlights the challenges of building policy on top of rapidly evolving tech landscapes and the need for an iterative, long-term process involving both industry and regulators. The conversation underscores the importance of understanding the unique characteristics of AI and the potential for it to be used for both beneficial and malicious purposes.

35:04

🎥 Inside Look at a16z American Dynamism Summit

This final section provides an overview of the a16z American Dynamism Summit, offering insights into the event's exclusive stage talks and the opportunity to engage with policy makers, founders, and funders. It encourages viewers to visit the a16z website for more information and to access the summit's content, which aims to foster a dialogue on American dynamism and innovation.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence, or AI, refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think and learn like humans. In the context of the video, AI is a central theme, impacting various industries, including defense and intelligence. The discussion revolves around AI's potential to transform jobs, enhance analytic capabilities, and its application in intelligence operations. Examples from the script include AI's role in creating avatars, translating languages, and assisting in data analysis.

💡American Dynamism

American Dynamism refers to the collaborative effort between Silicon Valley and the U.S. government to drive technological innovation and address national challenges. In the video, it symbolizes a partnership approach to leveraging technology, particularly AI, for advancing the country's defense and intelligence capabilities. The concept is highlighted during discussions about the a16z American Dynamism Summit and the emphasis on public-private cooperation.

💡Generative AI

Generative AI refers to a subset of AI technologies that can generate new data similar to the data they were trained on. The video mentions the disruptive potential of generative AI, particularly in the context of creating realistic images or sounds that can mimic real individuals. This raises implications for intelligence operations, as it can be used for deception or misinformation.

💡CTO of the CIA

The Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of the CIA is a role mentioned in the video, highlighting its significance in integrating advanced technologies like AI into the agency's operations. The CTO is responsible for overseeing the agency's tech strategy, ensuring it leverages emerging technologies effectively to fulfill its intelligence mission.

💡Human Intelligence

Human Intelligence, often abbreviated as HUMINT, is intelligence gathered by means of interpersonal contact, as opposed to technical intelligence gathering methods. The video discusses the CIA's focus on human intelligence and how AI technologies can augment these efforts, not replace them, by enhancing operational capabilities and analytic precision.

💡Defense Intelligence

Defense intelligence refers to the collection and processing of information that supports a country's defense and military interests. The video discusses how AI impacts defense intelligence, from enhancing analytical processes to reimagining roles and strategies within the intelligence community.

💡Pattern Recognition

Pattern recognition in AI refers to the ability to detect and interpret patterns and regularities in data. The video touches on how AI, through pattern recognition, can assist analysts in identifying insights from vast amounts of data that might not be apparent to human observers.

💡Reimagine Jobs

Reimagine jobs refers to the concept of envisioning new and transformed roles due to technological advancements like AI. The video challenges viewers to think about how their jobs might evolve, emphasizing the need to adapt to the integration of AI in various industries, including intelligence and defense.

💡Asymmetric Superpower

The term asymmetric superpower is used in the video to describe how technological advancements, particularly AI, don't necessarily confer an advantage to one side in a conflict or competition. Unlike the internet, which had asymmetric implications for national security, AI is seen as a tool that can be equally leveraged by various entities, thereby not skewing the balance of power significantly.

💡Compute Projects

The video refers to AI-driven projects as the largest compute projects ever undertaken, highlighting the significant computational resources required for AI research and development. This emphasizes the scale of investment and effort needed to advance AI technologies, particularly in the context of national defense and intelligence.

Highlights

Human intelligence operation's capability to make anyone be anybody, sound like anybody, and look like anybody.

The shift in focus from CT to great power competition and technology under Director Burns' leadership at the CIA.

The creation of the China Mission Center and Transnational Technology Mission Center within the CIA.

The role of the CTO in the CIA being a new position to handle the agency's technological focus and external engagement.

Artificial Intelligence's impact on various industries and its role in the defense of the country.

The challenge of detecting AI-generated content and the potential for AI to amplify biases in analysis.

The importance of human intelligence and the all-source approach in the CIA's operations.

The potential of AI to revolutionize pattern recognition and data analysis in the intelligence community.

The limitations of current AI models like LLMs and their suitability for intelligence work.

The need for the intelligence community to reimagine job roles in light of AI advancements.

The comparison of AI's impact on the intelligence community to the internet's impact, and the importance of not applying old lessons directly.

The cultural shift within the CIA towards embracing technology and the challenges it presents.

The discussion on the potential of open source AI and the trade-offs between using base algorithms and creating bespoke solutions.

The importance of public-private partnerships and the government's role in driving innovation and addressing the needs of national security.

The transformation and modernization efforts within the CIA to become a better customer for technology and innovation.

The unique challenges of policymaking in the context of emerging technologies and the need for an iterative, long-term approach.

Transcripts

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[Music]

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we're a human intelligence operation we

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can now make anybody be anybody and

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sound like anybody and look like anybody

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stop thinking about automating getting a

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10% 20% 30% on your job tell me in 5 to

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10 years how you going to reimagine your

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job this is no like asymmetric

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superpower which by the way is very very

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different than the internet well it's a

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American dynamism it's this idea of

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Silicon Valley leaning in and the

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government having to lean in together

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for us to meet in the middle to be a

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better supplier and a great customer

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these are the largest compute projects

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mankind has ever done before like we've

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never done anything close to this life

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finds a way which if there's demand for

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it people will supply it artificial

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intelligence has taken this world by

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storm just think about it here in 2024

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anyone with an internet connection and a

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few minutes to spare can literally spin

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up a Disney Avatar of themselves

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translate a foreign podcast into their

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native language and even get help

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writing their vows but artificial

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intelligence is not just impacting the

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creative spheres in fact you'll be

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hardpressed to identify an industry

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that's not touched by this technology

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and the defense of our country is no

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exception in today's episode originally

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recorded in the heart of Washington DC

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back in January during a16 Z's American

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dynamism Summit a6z General partner

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Martin cassado and a16z Enterprise

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editor derck Harris are joined by first

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ever CTO of the CIA yes that is the

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Central Intelligence Agency and we're

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joined by CTO nund mulchandani to

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discuss the future of Defense

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intelligence in this wide- ranging

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conversation they discussed the evolving

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relationship between Ai and analysts how

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governments can keep up with this

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exponential technology and finally how

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it's impacting not just offense but also

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defense oh and if you'd like to get an

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inside look into a16 Z's American

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dynamism Summit you can watch several of

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the stage talks from the event featuring

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policy makers like Congressman Jake aen

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Claus or Senator Todd young and of

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course both Founders and funders

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building toward American dynamism you

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can find all of the above at

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az.com ad Summit all right let's get

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started Martino most people watching

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listening to this are fairly familiar

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with with you and your role at a16z but

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n because the CIA CTO role is relatively

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new can you give us like a quick

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background on that role and kind of what

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your objective is so uh my journey so

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there really two stories here one is the

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agency needing a CTO and kind of what

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what created that and then my own

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journey to it uh the big thing it all

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all starts with director Burns taking

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over the agency uh at the beginning of

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the administration and he just like any

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great business leader sat down and and

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did a business review which is you know

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what what business are we in what are

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the big threats and and and the other

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pieces and the conclusion was actually

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fairly uh interesting uh and not a

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surprise was that we had it pivot from

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CT which had been the big sort of focus

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for the agency for a couple of decades

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to great power

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competition and then the interesting

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unusual sort of thing was this big

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amorphous thing called technology which

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is something that we had to sort of deal

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with

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uh there was huge interest obviously

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from policy makers in technology that we

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needed to start looking into and build

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policymaking around that I think it

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might be helpful to the listeners to

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understand kind of what CIA actually

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does because I had to actually learn a

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lot about the agency when I came on

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board uh and sort of what what Amy zard

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calls uh spy tainment to like what we

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actually do and so this pivot uh in

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terms of rethinking the agency's focus

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on technology uh there were three things

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that happened one is we created the

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China Mission Center which is how we

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actually uh focus on on on on threats

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and opportunities things t2mc which is

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transnational technology Mission Center

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and this weird thing called a CTO we're

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a 76y old spy agency so we've been doing

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technology for a long long long long

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time but technology has been somewhat

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latent what happened is with this focus

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on Tech we basically needed to focus on

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these sort of three different things

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that I think were different from what we

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were doing before number one is we are

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as an agency fairly um focused

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vertically focused and the CTO function

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really gives us the luxury a little bit

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of looking a little bit out rather than

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Focus sort of Inward and um the third

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thing is a little more external versus

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internal so engaging with the outside

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world uh doing things like this

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particular podcast and and video cast

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and other pieces so those are kind of

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the big Dimensions there and iess I

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guess Martin people know you as investor

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and founder of but I guess maybe it's

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worth noting you also s worked in the

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intelligence Community for a little bit

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right so you you come to this with a

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little bit of background huh yeah that's

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right yeah 20 years ago let's start with

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talking about AI which is kind of

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disrupting I think everything at the

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moment I would love to get both of your

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perspectives maybe Martin we can start

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with you on like how you thinking about

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AI as it relates to the intelligence

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Community like where we're at and and

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probably where we're headed you know AI

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has been around for a very long time um

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and I will say that um even when I was

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part of the intelligence Community 20

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years ago we talked a lot about if you

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have all of this information how do you

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kind of detect signal a lot of this was

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like very significant big data

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processing and a lot of the more kind of

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advanced Notions actually came out of

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the intelligence Community I mean a lot

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of what the intelligence Community deals

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with is you know things like enty and

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covert comms Etc a lot of these ideas

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are just fundamentally tied with AI um

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and so I just think there's a

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long-standing history what's interesting

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to ask is is how does this this kind of

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new generative AI World impact the

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intelligence agency and and and or like

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intelligence in general and one idea is

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like well okay so we can we can now make

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anybody be anybody and sound like

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anybody and look like anybody and oh

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that could be a huge problem because now

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you know like this kind of deep face

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could be a problem and then I'll tell

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you my kind kind of conclusion in a lot

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of this is um you know it actually turns

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out that if a computer generates

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something the ability to kind of

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fingerprint that isn't that difficult

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it's actually not that hard right so I

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actually think it becomes much much

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easier to detect if people are using Ai

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and tooling actually is the reality but

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that also means that we can't use them

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as tools and then we've got to go much

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more to the fundamentals so this kind of

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weird irony like we've got this set of

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new tools that allows anybody to sound

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like anybody or be anybody and that's

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going to be heavily heavily used around

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the world but like for those that are

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sufficiently sophisticated it's going to

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be quite possible to detect them and I

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think that in some ways this is kind of

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this nice cover in chaos for what you

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know our agencies and many agencies are

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very good at which is kind of much more

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you know human Focus less than you know

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core technical approach to these

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intelligence problems I guess it's

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probably fair to say yes like we've been

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ai's been around for a long time machine

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learning even you know deep learning

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back a decade ago now but like yeah

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generative AI LMS and that sort of thing

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are

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definitely do you think do you think

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about it like Martin referenced kind of

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like the defense and the offensive side

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of that right yeah so exactly that and

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I'll just complement what Martin said

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was you know really when you look at the

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two big functions that we we we have as

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an agency right we've got the

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operational side and we've got the

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analytic side and of course those are

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composed in to different things but

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those are really broadly the two big

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functions so what Martin absolutely

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nailed is the operational side of it

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it's spy versus spy it's cat and mouse

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it's all the usual stuff right the

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democratization of this stuff and the

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availability we know is going to drive

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each one of our competitors to be

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driving this up we're going to be aware

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of that we're going to drive our own

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stuff up so there's this aspect of we

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don't know where this is going to go but

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it's definitely not pulling back this is

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where you know the the stops are off um

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however the thing we've always got to

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keep at least we keep in

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mind we're a human intelligence

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operation we're a foreign intelligence

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operation we're all source so these are

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the things so we have particular Focus

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within the 18 intelligence agencies to

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focus on a particular thing so

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everything he said in terms of using or

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wielding or scaling this Ai and

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operations all is within the context of

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taking our case officers and operations

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teams and making them successful right

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because any good sort of team sport we

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play a particular role on the field and

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applying this Tac to scaling and making

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our our teams basically our folks more

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effective and win is basically the game

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now on the analytic side it's a

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complimentary but a different problem

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and this is where the big data and the

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other pieces come in is to me what's

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revolutionary about this is underlying

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AI is the the the promise and excitement

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always is the pattern patterning right

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the ability to discover patterns in

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large amounts of data that typically

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humans can't see right it's not easy for

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them to see what's different now in the

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older days of when we were doing big

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data analytics and things I call this

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the pull model versus the push model

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which is the analyst had to come up with

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creative stuff to think about first and

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say I'm going to put a query in to go

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find the information the problem is is

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the conceptual boundary of an analyst to

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hit the query that hits the data was it

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was like spear fishing right you're like

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going in and trying to get this one anal

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analytic idea out of this massive data

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what's beautiful about this Tech is

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nowaday now this stuff can actually push

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stuff right you can almost invert the

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process where a lot of the stuff gets

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pushed to you because it starts to

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understand what you're looking for in

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some sense and starts tailoring the

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stuff and gets deeper and deeper and

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deeper over time right this is the uh uh

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stuff you've been driving to now that

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has a uh evil twin problem to it that I

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I've been spending time on thinking

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about just as it relates to our work is

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what I call the sort of uh rabbit ho

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holding problem which is the very thing

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that makes these these uh products and

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Technologies so effective which is

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learning about you and knowing and I

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think on one of your previous podcasts I

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think you or Mark talked about this idea

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of these these algorithms are built to

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please you they want to make you happy

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well it can then also unfortunately take

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the things that you as an analyst are

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weakest at or it's your uh your Weak

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Knee or your thing that that it can get

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into your head and start Rabbit holding

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you down this thing which amplifies your

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biases we've got to be very careful very

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smart about where we apply it when and

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how modul all these all these particular

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things that are out there how close are

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we actually I mean because I feel like

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we've heard maybe going back to the

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early days of talking about Big Data

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like how personalized something will be

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or how how easy it's going to be to sort

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Stu I mean or are we are we still away a

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ways away from like you know very much

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automating like maybe in a CIA analyst

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sort of so so I I I think I think we're

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now understanding the kind of power and

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limits of of this technology I think

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well first off I think there's a very

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important topic for us to to add like

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like maybe prediction to make which is

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will this change the existing

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equilibrium that you know that is now an

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intelligence between kind of like

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offense and defense and and Etc and like

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my deep belief is exactly what Nan says

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which is like it doesn't change the

play12:03

equilibrium in the sense that that you

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know there's going to be more toing for

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offense there going be more toing for

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defense this is no like asymmetric

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superpower which by the way is very very

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different than the internet and this is

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why this is such a bad analog the

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internet was asymmetric which is like

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the more capabilities you had with the

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internet the more vulnerable you were

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which is why like when we were working

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on the terrorist threat we're like you

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know we're the most vulnerable nation in

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the world and like you know many of the

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people that we were focused on didn't

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even have laptops it's nothing like that

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you know AI is something that anybody

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can use um it doesn't change some

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fundamental equilibrium in an a

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asymmetric way so so so that's the first

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answer to your question is does it allow

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for personalization or does it allow for

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kind of anything specific I think that

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you know it's kind of you know it

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doesn't create any EMB balance between

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two opposing sides so the second answer

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that is I think we're pretty clear about

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like even the individual limits of let's

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say llms right now which is they're very

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very good for a few use cases they're

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very very good for like you ask one

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question they give you one response and

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if that question is in the Corpus of

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training data it'll give you a good

play13:05

response the problem is if the question

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is out of the Corpus of the training

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data like you don't really know if the

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response is good or not which is fine if

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you're just asking one question because

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most humans will be able to back check

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that right so it's very good if you like

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have like a co-pilot for an analyst and

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you help them with their job the thing

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that we've not seen any evidence of is

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agentic behavior and by agentic Behavior

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it means like you ask one question then

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you step away and you go get a coffee

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and it does its own thing and the reason

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is is if it generates anything out of

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distribution like and by the way out of

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distribution means it's not commonly

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represented in the training set then

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that error is going to acre and it tends

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to ur exponentially provably right and

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so I think right now we view these as

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new tools that you use you know side by

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side but they don't become their own

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separate kind of entity yeah and that

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that absolutely brilliant point is this

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idea of the acral of the prob

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probabilities times probabil

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probabilities which gets the

play14:01

hallucination Stuff Etc when it comes to

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my 11-year-old drawing unicorns that's a

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feature not a no problem no problem

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awesome hallucinate away that's awesome

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that's great uh it playing games doing

play14:14

all kinds of crazy like that's amazing

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when it comes to analytic capabilities

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when it comes to operations we cannot

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have this level of uncertainty and and

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not you know knowing and explainability

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I mean I think that we're in such these

play14:29

sort of early stages of this game right

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so everything we're talking about here

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is like we were in 1990 five show up two

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years ago exactly I mean this thing just

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happened and we were just talking before

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this like all of us old F three old

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folies here you know sitting around the

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porch this very well could be a porch

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with you know rocking chairs and I

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sitting around talking about the early

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days of the internet we could not have

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possibly imagined the stuff that's

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happened over the past years

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so at the agency what we're doing is

play15:01

saying great there's a whole bunch of

play15:04

these basic use cases that are just

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there's no question this stuff can get

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applied and by the way we're all in on

play15:11

it right so I didn't ever wanted to give

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the impression that this is something

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that is is uh you know we're slow

play15:17

rolling it or thinking it but to

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martine's point the applications on a

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peruse basis we have to think them

play15:25

through this is not peanut butter that

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you can just spread everywhere and you

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get goodness everywhere with with no

play15:30

thinking so for instance we're public

play15:32

with the fact that we actually have llms

play15:34

in production at the agency we have it

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in production in the open source team uh

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you know so we're so those easy use

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cases business automation other pieces

play15:45

we're experimenting we're trying we're

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doing stuff now the co-pilot piece the

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way I view it is typically people jump

play15:52

immediately to the hardest of hard

play15:54

problems and say we're just going to go

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replace this we're going to go do this

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that what what we're challenging

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everyone to do inside the agency though

play16:02

is it's one thing to like look at the

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low hanging fruit get that stuff

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automated get the value the thing that's

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most interesting though is can and we're

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challenging fix to say stop thinking

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about automating getting a 10% 20% 30%

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on your job tell me in 5 to 10 years how

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you going to reimagine your job now

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here's where problems here's where

play16:25

things get tricky because many of the

play16:28

people who are challenged to reimagine

play16:30

their

play16:31

job are looking at this technology and

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learning it right for the first time and

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understanding the power of it I'm still

play16:38

like I mean all of us are still very far

play16:41

away from knowing where this going to go

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so it's really hard for them to imagine

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this prototype thing that's like still

play16:47

playing around how's it going to impact

play16:48

or rethink my job so this is where you

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know we're pushing and experimenting and

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encouraging everyone try stuff learn

play16:57

stuff get up the experience curve but

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we're not going to settle on an answer

play17:00

CU that's not going to just appear

play17:02

magically off that so I I read something

play17:04

recently a CIA analyst like imagining

play17:06

their job I don't know what the time

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frame was like five or 10 years out and

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it it was very much like it was very

play17:13

much what you describe right like enter

play17:15

a prompt go get a cup of coffee and and

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then by the end of the day we've

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arrested someone in France for something

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right that's how people it's uh uh we

play17:25

took the kids to Disney World and you go

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on the Epcot ride

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which was the imagination of it's like

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ride of the future it was from the 1950s

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or 60s imagining what the world would be

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like in

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2024 and it's

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like a a handheld phone with a video

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monitor on it like okay you know so it's

play17:47

it's one of these things which is it's

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really hard to see where the Stu is go

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do you guys have a sense of like where

play17:52

how the analyst I mean again again

play17:54

noting that it's early I mean

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realistically like it's just a thing

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where like analysts just have different

play18:00

skill sets going forward they have just

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this have different tools at their

play18:04

disposal I mean how does it well I think

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we can say

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something relatively specific on this

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and then there's a bunch of stuff we

play18:09

don't know but here's the thing that's

play18:10

relatively specific so the way that

play18:12

these large language models in

play18:13

particular work is they get a whole

play18:15

bunch of data and then they basically

play18:17

have a distribution of the you know how

play18:21

common the data was represented like

play18:23

that's what they do right they they do

play18:24

basically what's called kernel smoothing

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over positional embeddings which is just

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like aing a bunch of like words so it

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averages a bunch of words and then for

play18:32

any time that you ask it a question it

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kind of gives you like the most common

play18:36

outcome so what does this mean this

play18:37

means for like for mean things you want

play18:39

to do for the a for the the average

play18:42

thing you want to it would be very good

play18:43

to get you an answer so for any kind of

play18:45

like standard rote thing you want to do

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it's going to give you an answer the

play18:49

problem is is if you want to do

play18:51

something in the tail or in something

play18:52

that's new or an exception it doesn't

play18:54

know how to do that like there's no

play18:56

mechanism within it that will do that

play18:58

and so much of like intelligence work I

play19:01

would argue is actually in the tail

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right I mean it's like these are the

play19:04

problems the intelligence agency is

play19:06

particularly good at and so I think we

play19:08

can believe that there's a world with

play19:10

you know every analyst will have

play19:12

strapped on an llm that'll help them

play19:13

with the routine stuff but like so much

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of the job is tail reasoning reasoning

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in the tail that this is not going to

play19:21

remove the humans and by the way this

play19:22

isn't just the intelligence Community I

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think this is most work but I think it's

play19:25

particularly acute in the intelligence

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Community yeah and I

play19:29

break it up into the first piece is uh

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does this technology replace the analyst

play19:35

the second piece that Martin talked

play19:37

about is the co-pilot model which is I

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I'm I do my work and I have a little

play19:41

wing person that helps me with all the

play19:43

routine stuff or scaling but it's

play19:46

exactly his point which is it's not the

play19:47

creation of new information from old

play19:49

information like human beings uniquely

play19:52

create new things new information it's

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unclear whether these systems actually

play19:57

produce new information information or

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new thought it's just finding it or or

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routinizing it the third one is what I

play20:04

call the sort of crazy drunk friend

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problem or other pieces which is the

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hallucinating or the piece which has a

play20:11

role in some disciplines right making

play20:14

new art poetry and in the analyst

play20:18

function it's this point of finding that

play20:21

point on the distribution if the average

play20:23

policy maker could think through the

play20:26

average use case and what's the role of

play20:27

the analy

play20:28

the role of the analyst is to have this

play20:31

holistic piece of thinking through

play20:33

probabilities I mean it's kind of what

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an AI program would do to some extent if

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you start modulating where on the sort

play20:40

of distribution you want to go here's a

play20:43

good analog imagine you're an analyst

play20:45

and imagine and if you get paired up

play20:48

with like some person that's been in the

play20:49

agency for like 40 years so this person

play20:52

doesn't know new technology it just

play20:55

knows what everybody's done a whole

play20:56

bunch is that the entire perspective of

play20:58

course not like you have to evolve but

play21:00

it's a very important perspective so

play21:01

llms are very good at being that old

play21:03

person they're very good at being like

play21:04

well this is how we've done it in the

play21:05

past here's a recommendation but like

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that's why we have people to make a

play21:09

decision like do I want to do something

play21:10

new something that's in the tail or do I

play21:12

want to listen to this person that's

play21:13

been around for a very long time so it's

play21:15

a it's a very concrete kind of mental

play21:17

book end for doing things but the

play21:20

majority of the value which is the new

play21:22

stuff will still remain with the person

play21:24

one interesting thing for me has been

play21:27

being you know having spent 25 years in

play21:29

the valley done a bunch of startups and

play21:30

now being on the on the government side

play21:33

is a lot of the tech discussion around

play21:36

this is about the possibilities and all

play21:38

the great stuff on creation side which

play21:39

is awesome Innovation invention getting

play21:43

great people to do group awesome stuff

play21:46

but you have to flip over to the buy

play21:50

side of Technology this is my first the

play21:53

second run Pentagon was two and a half

play21:55

years and now it's CIA of being on the

play21:57

bu side of technology and seeing all the

play22:00

stuff happening I just actually took a

play22:01

red eye in from California and like you

play22:04

over there it's all about possibilities

play22:06

and here it's about how do we take the

play22:09

job the function that we have to operate

play22:11

in with all the constraints and things

play22:14

which are by the way not uh constraints

play22:16

that are artificially imposed I mean uh

play22:19

you know the CTO office at the agency

play22:22

right next door is where the pdb gets

play22:24

made for the president and so by the

play22:27

time some hits that threshold of getting

play22:30

into the presidential Daily Brief you

play22:32

can imagine the level of scrutiny and

play22:36

Analysis and focus that our analysts put

play22:38

into this work and so it's funny because

play22:41

like the excitement and hype about this

play22:44

technology versus US absorbing it and

play22:47

making it battle ready is a long long

play22:50

distance and so I I don't hopefully you

play22:54

know uh portraying or representing that

play22:58

side of the equation which it doesn't

play23:00

happen rapidly right it takes a long

play23:03

time for folks in their own disciplines

play23:05

and life and careers to understand

play23:07

what's the actual impact the absorption

play23:10

of this technology does take a long time

play23:13

and for it to disrupt a particular

play23:15

individual or an individual discipline

play23:18

or a you know whatever these things do

play23:21

you know so that so I so I experienced

play23:23

when I was in the intelligence Community

play23:25

something very similar but but but

play23:27

modestly different which is the

play23:28

following which is um I I know I was an

play23:31

Ops and we would have you know missions

play23:34

and stuff to do um and they would have

play23:36

very specific requirements and and the

play23:39

the piece of technology that came from

play23:41

like the public SE or the private sector

play23:44

just were not suited and in fact little

play23:46

know story so my you know my PhD work

play23:48

was in software defi networking before

play23:50

it was done in Hardware to tough to

play23:52

program we need to make like honestly

play23:54

the insight for that work all came from

play23:56

my time working with the intelligence

play23:58

agencies because we had to build a

play24:00

network that had to like deal with

play24:02

certain things and I'm like you know I

play24:04

actually came from the Computing side of

play24:05

the world I'm like these things aren't

play24:07

programmable and and to do what we need

play24:09

to do here I have to program them

play24:11

because you know Cisco just doesn't know

play24:12

what we need to do so there's also a

play24:14

flip side so everything you're saying I

play24:16

I totally agree it takes a long time to

play24:17

be adopted but also your requirements

play24:20

and needs are a bit different than what

play24:22

they are than what the market ising for

play24:24

yeah yeah yeah well actually you know

play24:25

what's funny is uh first uh it will sh

play24:27

lessly say I I stole uh I've been a huge

play24:31

software Define networking fan for a

play24:33

very long time I know we overlapped at

play24:35

VMware you know when you were acquired

play24:36

in I had got acquired in uh before but

play24:40

uh uh I stole it for a paper uh that I

play24:43

coote with Shan General Shanahan called

play24:46

s find Warfare I love it and the idea

play24:48

that this strongly Endo ex there you go

play24:52

yeah uh you can go download download uh

play24:55

early and often but yeah basically this

play24:57

idea of like how do you actually take

play24:59

something that's on a hardware Hardware

play25:01

curve and push it onto a software curve

play25:03

how do you do this Pro reprogramming Etc

play25:05

and so the question we've been asking

play25:06

inside is what does software defined

play25:08

intelligence look like I love it right

play25:10

so what's the next level of like stuff

play25:13

where to point it's maybe more push

play25:16

versus pull it's this idea of going

play25:19

across that distribution curve and

play25:20

starting to understand uh one other

play25:23

piece that that's been sort of uh right

play25:26

in the middle of this whole thing is the

play25:27

whole policymaking debate inside you

play25:29

know Etc uh one key point I wanted to

play25:33

make was it's very interesting so the

play25:36

work that each of us do has encoded in

play25:39

it the policies and outlines of what we

play25:43

have to do as part of a job function and

play25:45

I call this code AS law which is that

play25:47

when you look at the applications that

play25:49

you probably use at the agency and that

play25:51

we we we use there we encode all of

play25:53

those rules and regulations inside of it

play25:56

and I call this the thresholding problem

play25:57

to some extent which is inside a line of

play26:00

code in our application there is

play26:03

something that says if probability of X

play26:06

happens Beyond this then do this versus

play26:08

that right right we have lines and lines

play26:11

and millions of lines of code that has

play26:13

those if statements in there now it's

play26:15

interesting because what that means is

play26:16

we've been implicitly taking human

play26:19

decisions that a programmer or a

play26:21

policymaker made it and code it into

play26:22

code now with this new sort of AI based

play26:26

systems both both the previous sort of

play26:28

supervised learning and unsupervised and

play26:30

now with these uh newer algorithms um

play26:33

these are still probabilistic algorithms

play26:36

except now the probabilities actually

play26:38

stare you in the face in a way that

play26:41

previous systems didn't push right so

play26:43

previous application systems never came

play26:45

up with said do you want the 49% the 69%

play26:50

answer and now you decide whether 69 is

play26:53

high enough or not right it would

play26:55

basically would encode it and say great

play26:57

there's an ARB number 50 and anything

play26:59

above versus below now why this is

play27:02

becoming such a debate is because the

play27:05

probabilities are now surfaced to the

play27:07

user's face and if they aren't we have

play27:10

to train people to start thinking about

play27:12

when the system punches out a number how

play27:14

do you make a decision on a probability

play27:17

so I think that that's that's the big

play27:19

difference between before and now that

play27:21

we're having to retrain everybody and

play27:23

why it's become a policy issue all of a

play27:25

sudden it's because policy makers now

play27:27

have knob where we now have to decide

play27:30

explicitly this or that so to me it's

play27:35

it's it's actually we're in a kind of

play27:37

the same world but just more an explicit

play27:39

world is there I mean before we get into

play27:41

policy specifically like is is there a

play27:44

sense where like I mean the Advent of

play27:46

Open Source and then just the general

play27:48

acceptance of Open Source now does that

play27:50

make it easier does that ease the

play27:52

adoption to some open source Tech right

play27:54

because in an Intel we have the open-

play27:56

source intell

play27:58

question I would say open source are

play28:00

sort of technology and in terms of like

play28:01

you want to adopt something right so

play28:03

there's commercial technology not up not

play28:05

up to power but you know you need to be

play28:06

able to to remake it in your own image

play28:09

and and and get something that actually

play28:12

is actually fun functional for

play28:15

you um I would love to hear Nan's answer

play28:18

actually I've got a historic perspective

play28:19

on this but I'd like to hear your

play28:20

current perspective so the thing we're

play28:24

challenged with on on just this whole

play28:26

landscape right now

play28:28

is um each of the large each of the

play28:31

companies is offering right a particular

play28:34

llm and and to me it's turning into sort

play28:36

of like different types of wine or

play28:39

different varietal and I'm not a a wine

play28:42

snobber or know why that well but I'm

play28:44

imagining it's it's it's it has

play28:46

something the lineage and the you know

play28:49

the data Exquisite data this one was

play28:52

grown in the hills of you know Normandy

play28:55

and this one comes from you know you

play28:57

know this part of Italy you're saying

play28:59

it's all

play28:59

nonsense exactly ultimately ultimately

play29:03

right so so you're getting these llms

play29:05

with these you know different lineages

play29:07

and different vintages and different

play29:09

data you know Etc and uh each of these

play29:13

behaves you know these systems are going

play29:15

to behave very differently over time

play29:17

right uh now the question is you know

play29:20

the the going big problem of like Well

play29:22

everybody's going to train on the whole

play29:23

internet so everything's just going to

play29:25

get look the same right this versus that

play29:28

but I think there's a second question

play29:30

that we're having to to to do is um the

play29:33

open source Fe and this is where the

play29:34

open source question comes in is the

play29:36

ability to start training with your own

play29:38

data and the question becomes do I take

play29:41

a base algorithm or system that somebody

play29:45

has built that by the way has ingested

play29:48

the entire internet which both good and

play29:50

garbage that has been ingested in and

play29:53

now I use that as a base platform and it

play29:55

may have a certain set of biases

play29:57

that it brought along with the garbage

play29:59

and Cesspool that the internet is and

play30:01

all of a sudden now I'm I'm using that

play30:03

as my base or do I want my pristine you

play30:07

know

play30:07

handcrafted uh you know sort of made in

play30:10

in in in uh uh in bespoke fashion thing

play30:14

that's where the availability of these

play30:16

algorithms becomes really interesting

play30:18

however it has the base the the opposite

play30:20

problem of it doesn't have the imperatur

play30:23

and the stamp of a large company that

play30:26

has the experence building large

play30:28

software systems and training and

play30:30

verification other pieces so we then

play30:32

have to sort of know and understand the

play30:35

stuff ourselves and do all that work so

play30:36

I think that's a trade-off that we're

play30:38

dealing with yeah yeah yeah yeah that

play30:39

makes a ton of sense here here's a bit

play30:42

of a here's a bit of a historical

play30:43

perspective on this which is similar to

play30:45

what I touched on before which is um you

play30:48

know like in my experience the

play30:49

government the intelligence agencies

play30:51

have to solve problems that like just

play30:53

that market forces don't really solve

play30:54

for in order to do that there has to be

play30:56

some sort of you know flexibility

play30:57

programmability and open source has

play30:59

always been like a a key component of

play31:01

this right I mean quite famously SE

play31:04

Linux came out of the NSA you know and

play31:06

they use kind of Linux to do because

play31:07

they required kind of like whatever and

play31:09

like there's been a number of chaining

play31:10

to to algorithms like um like crypto

play31:13

right like like the I don't remember the

play31:15

details but remember like the NSA was

play31:17

like oh like quadratic linear

play31:19

programming will break this so go ahead

play31:20

and do this kind of change in the

play31:21

algorithm then it's better I mean so

play31:23

these are types of things that have been

play31:24

coming out of the agencies for

play31:27

intelligence for quite a while now I

play31:29

remember 20 years ago when I was in the

play31:31

depths kind of working on one of these

play31:33

problems and there's kind of an Oldtimer

play31:34

there and he he goes to me he's like man

play31:36

he was a tech Oldtimer he's like it's so

play31:38

great you have this open source because

play31:39

we can work with it he says I remember

play31:40

in the time when all we would get was

play31:42

supercomputers and they would come out

play31:44

of IBM or come out of SDI or come out of

play31:46

ksr or whatever it is we'd buy one of

play31:47

everything but like we only got what

play31:50

like the vendors created um and

play31:52

something that I do think about it be

play31:54

great to hear perspective Nan which is

play31:56

it's one thing to open source weights

play31:58

and biases that's one thing but these

play31:59

are the largest compute projects that H

play32:01

like mankind has ever done before like

play32:03

we've never done anything close to this

play32:05

and so even if the weights and biases

play32:06

are open source I don't know how much

play32:08

you can modify it right so it almost

play32:10

feels like we're going back to this old

play32:11

Mainframe day where like it's great to

play32:14

have it and you can operationalize it

play32:15

but you're not going to have the same

play32:16

level of flexibility as you know you

play32:19

have with like traditional software at

play32:20

least this would be my guess no AB

play32:22

absolutely

play32:23

um have you're totally right the the

play32:26

weights and biases are anybody's ability

play32:29

to do something with that those with

play32:31

that information is limited because it's

play32:34

not just the numbers you have to have

play32:36

the expertise you need to compute you

play32:37

need all the other pie how many these

play32:38

training runs are hundreds of millions

play32:40

that's my point which is sure great I I

play32:42

have that information I just don't have

play32:43

the compute Cycles to be able to do

play32:46

anything with it right or or modify it

play32:48

or change it so you're totally right it

play32:50

it will help it with verification it'll

play32:52

help with training testing it'll train

play32:54

help with all that stuff that's fine but

play32:56

you're totally right feel like we're

play32:57

going back into this kind of almost

play32:59

super computer but which which by the

play33:01

way the government is the best at like

play33:03

100% the best at procurement using I

play33:04

mean there's a long history of that but

play33:06

it's a very different it it's a the ball

play33:08

game is completely different um the

play33:10

other piece by the way with open source

play33:12

that we have to deal with a lot by the

play33:13

way is the uh is the supply chain issues

play33:17

of course yeah right so

play33:19

um just you know and this is a whole new

play33:23

level of paranoia that you need to have

play33:25

working in a spy agency is it's one

play33:27

thing for your program to not run or you

play33:29

know some some e-commerce customer

play33:32

having a bug or something uh these

play33:34

issues are are still again also really

play33:37

really important for us I don't ask so

play33:39

so why does that look like that if you

play33:40

get back if you make the supercomputer

play33:41

te analogy right like what does a new

play33:43

let's say public private DC Silicon

play33:46

Valley partnership look like in terms of

play33:48

like actually implementing and

play33:50

operationalizing AI models and AI

play33:52

systems so I I'll take a shot at that

play33:54

because it's something that uh that

play33:56

we're well I think the US government is

play33:58

thinking about this at large is so

play34:02

um uh when you go talk to universities

play34:05

right now one point they make is they

play34:08

don't have the compute power to be able

play34:10

to rival Microsoft and open Ai and these

play34:14

companies which is mindboggling right

play34:16

because to your point the supercomputer

play34:19

systems and everything I I when I was at

play34:21

Cornell we remember we had a

play34:22

supercomputing site on campus with money

play34:26

that you know the government had put put

play34:28

in place to have these supercomputing

play34:29

centers right Illinois had one uh

play34:31

Cornell Etc and we don't have that

play34:34

equivalent now so now the National

play34:36

Science Foundation I think some of the

play34:38

uh money that the government's allocated

play34:40

I'm assuming has been is going towards

play34:43

building these large scale or not or the

play34:46

opposite so we're not ay making

play34:48

organizations actively trying to keep

play34:50

people from building them I think there

play34:52

needs to be this model of it has to come

play34:54

out from uh you know away from just

play34:57

corporate uh organizations doing this to

play35:00

you know and and you know we're part of

play35:02

government so it's a different thing but

play35:04

the question is is whether this needs to

play35:05

get sort of opened up in a bigger way I

play35:07

mean so so prior to being in the so the

play35:10

thing that brought me into the

play35:11

intelligence Community is I was doing

play35:13

computational physics on supercomputers

play35:15

at a National Lab in the weapons program

play35:18

when 911 happened right and they're like

play35:20

you have all the clearances like you

play35:22

need to move like to like this kind of

play35:24

new area and they moved me to the

play35:25

intelligence community and I learned a

play35:27

bunch of stuff that way um you know I I

play35:30

will say

play35:32

um the work that we did on those super

play35:34

computers the government was the best it

play35:36

created entire new disciplines of of of

play35:39

you know scientists and career

play35:42

Professionals in universities it leaned

play35:45

totally into this and that's why we

play35:47

maintained a leadership position in the

play35:48

world through that and in in in compute

play35:50

and we still do um I do think that it's

play35:53

a risk that we don't take the same

play35:54

attitude like I don't listen I'm a VC

play35:57

here and I'm saying I don't think the

play35:58

private markets solve everything I do

play35:59

believe in like public private

play36:01

Partnerships I do believe in

play36:03

institutions I do believe that the

play36:05

government has a big role to play here

play36:07

but I think that role to play is

play36:08

investing heavily in in people and Tech

play36:11

and careers and reaching out and my fear

play36:14

is that they're kind of doing the

play36:15

opposite where is in my time you know my

play36:18

time but back back in the 90s was

play36:19

exactly what you said I mean I mean I

play36:21

went to like Northern Arizona University

play36:23

Small Mountain School and we had like

play36:26

asy program where they would come out

play36:27

and kind of like invest in us and I just

play36:30

feel that now even though we have this

play36:32

new technology it's very powerful and we

play36:34

are the leader and it came from the

play36:35

United States instead we're kind of

play36:36

pulling back from it and so I do think

play36:38

that this is a moment of kind of you

play36:41

know I think that the US has to kind of

play36:42

take pause and and and and understand if

play36:45

are we undergoing a Doctrine change

play36:46

where when new technologies come we run

play36:48

away from it instead of towards it and

play36:50

you know I think it's a it's a real

play36:52

quandry yeah it does seem like that like

play36:54

may maybe there was a shift at some

play36:55

point too maybe it was the internet

play36:56

internet I'm not sure where like in the

play36:58

supercomputer days yes like you you

play37:00

bought a system from IBM or SGI whoever

play37:04

was selling

play37:06

this and but that was a hardware system

play37:10

right running some very specialized

play37:11

software but like today yes everything

play37:13

comes out of these huge companies that

play37:15

have access to all the data and all the

play37:17

computing power and like I don't know if

play37:19

that how how that affected like the the

play37:21

pow shift or whatever but is is there a

play37:23

way to like I mean do you do you sense a

play37:25

way to bridge C does it and can I like

play37:27

well go ahead yeah I mean so so here's

play37:30

the other side of the argument which is

play37:32

the very dynamics that have led us to

play37:34

this point of creating these algorithms

play37:36

and and these systems these

play37:38

breakthroughs uh there's also hundreds

play37:40

of companies that you you and other VCS

play37:43

are funding hacking away at the problem

play37:46

to make these things available right

play37:48

there's huge amounts of work going on in

play37:49

AI specific chipsets uh both on the

play37:52

training side and the inferencing side

play37:55

um whole bunch of algorithmic changes

play37:57

that are going to happen that refactor

play37:59

these algorithms to do better job in

play38:02

terms of scaling and being able to

play38:04

shrink them without a loss of a dramatic

play38:06

loss of performance so again we're such

play38:10

in the early stages and innings of this

play38:12

game that we don't know what the next

play38:14

five years is going to bring but for

play38:16

sure you've got thousands of really

play38:19

really smart people hacking away at the

play38:20

problem that I think will come to some

play38:23

medium where yes hopefully the

play38:25

government or maybe the government funds

play38:27

or Academia ends up with these large

play38:29

compute places to be able to rival um uh

play38:33

commercial and at the same time the

play38:35

availability of you know hardware

play38:37

commoditization and other pieces will

play38:39

get to a point where we'll be able to

play38:41

run all kinds of interesting algorithms

play38:43

at scale with really cheap readily

play38:47

available Hardware right so that's The

play38:49

Optimist that's a sort of techno

play38:51

Optimist aspect of it which is you know

play38:54

as I say life finds a way which is if

play38:56

there's demand for it people will supply

play38:58

it yeah yeah it just it just the

play39:00

question is is will will the the the

play39:04

private markets solve the problems

play39:06

needed for things like Global defense or

play39:09

like you know national security stuff

play39:10

like that and just

play39:12

historically the the government has

play39:14

played a role in innovation in training

play39:17

I mean you know like think about like

play39:20

nuclear Engineers like a lot of this

play39:22

actually came up from government

play39:23

programs so this is a different slightly

play39:26

different topic is this idea of what are

play39:28

we doing in government to do a better

play39:30

job of working with industry right and

play39:33

that so uh a large portion of this job

play39:36

that I have is this idea this new idea

play39:39

of you know well it's American dynamism

play39:41

it's this idea of Silicon Valley leaning

play39:43

in and the government having to lean in

play39:45

together for us to meet in the middle to

play39:47

be uh you know a supp better supplier

play39:50

and a great customer so in my role at

play39:54

the agency one of the big areas of Focus

play39:56

for us is how do we become a better

play39:59

customer you know a dramatically

play40:01

different customer I spent two and a

play40:03

half years at the Pentagon which was its

play40:05

own gigantic problem in terms of that's

play40:08

where software Define Warfare ideas came

play40:11

and in all honesty we don't we don't do

play40:13

a great job in certain things where we

play40:16

could be world class or better and we

play40:18

are working really really hard to change

play40:20

that so for instance

play40:23

um there is no as we point out in inside

play40:26

many cases there is no ready app store

play40:28

for Spy software so there are absolutely

play40:31

certain things that we need to build and

play40:34

right inside the agency that's very

play40:36

specific it's also our competitive

play40:38

Advantage right which is we're not going

play40:39

to be buying this stuff that's readily

play40:41

available for everyone we have our

play40:43

secret sauce we build it it's our

play40:45

competitive Advantage however what we

play40:47

don't do sometimes is analyze it we take

play40:50

that too far which is there's stuff

play40:52

that's readily available outside from

play40:54

commercial land that we don't think

play40:56

think about buying deploying and

play40:57

implementing at scale and in the past

play41:00

year and a half we have actually spent a

play41:01

lot of I've personally spent a lot of

play41:03

time focusing on what I call Commercial

play41:06

first right is this idea that we need to

play41:08

be rethinking our strategy that if

play41:10

something is available on the outside

play41:11

how we bring it in however we have

play41:14

procurement processes we have atto

play41:16

processes we have security processes

play41:18

that don't lend themselves well for

play41:19

Rapid acquisition in pieces so we're

play41:21

trying to hack away at those on top of

play41:24

it the other issue is that the security

play41:26

needs and requirements to run the stuff

play41:28

on the high side is very expensive and

play41:31

for commercial vendors to provide and go

play41:33

through that process is expensive and an

play41:36

investment and so we have to create

play41:37

incentive structures to be able to bring

play41:39

them in so it's not a it's not simply we

play41:42

can will it into into existence but it's

play41:45

a systemic problem that we're trying to

play41:47

attack and and and hack away at um

play41:50

there's certain things that have been

play41:51

big breakthroughs inside the agency over

play41:53

the past year and a half I can say

play41:55

probably can't tell you what those are

play41:57

but we've made huge huge progress in

play42:00

rethinking and other other ways there

play42:03

and as an agency you know there's a

play42:05

number of cultural shifts that we're

play42:06

going through internally right so I

play42:09

actually before even the S wrote up kind

play42:11

of like a couple of these sort of like

play42:14

this versus that so I'll throw a bunch

play42:15

of this so first is the human versus

play42:18

Tech right is this idea that as a human

play42:20

intelligence organization it's very

play42:23

interesting because of the changes in

play42:26

Tech outside that our case officers and

play42:29

we operate in right we're publicly talk

play42:31

about what we call ubiquitous technical

play42:33

surveillance right UTS video cameras

play42:36

Biometrics Etc so we as a spy agency

play42:39

hate Tech when it's applied against us

play42:41

but we also wield it right so it's that

play42:44

aspect the other interesting cultural

play42:46

thing in the agency that's been

play42:48

fascinating is the the power of the

play42:51

individual which is we train individuals

play42:55

to uh go do heroic efforts and things

play42:59

which is part of our our that that's our

play43:00

job right that's the the agency's job is

play43:03

to go into foreign countries and and spy

play43:06

the the applying Tech what is the big

play43:09

change in Tech that we've seen over the

play43:10

past couple of decades scale and so this

play43:14

idea of the individual versus scale is a

play43:16

cultural thing that we're trying to

play43:17

rationalize right is applying Enterprise

play43:20

large- scale Tech to an an organization

play43:23

that teaches individuals to take

play43:26

basically have agency to go do things so

play43:29

that's a very interesting one the

play43:31

short-term versus longterm which is the

play43:33

idea of you know us being an agency

play43:35

that's ready to go at a moment's notice

play43:37

which the agency does incredibly well

play43:39

but again to do large scale Enterprise

play43:42

Wide Technology Transformations and

play43:44

things takes takes time uh it's the uh

play43:48

open versus sort of clandestine which is

play43:50

as an agency our um folks AR not trained

play43:54

to be out there in public and director

play43:57

Burns has has made this a big priority

play44:00

in terms of Engagement with the outside

play44:02

world engagement with the technology

play44:04

industry which happens out in the open

play44:06

right it's it's it's stuff the idea of

play44:09

carrying a business card and being

play44:11

present and being on podcasts these are

play44:13

all culturally new things for the agency

play44:16

to deal with so we ourselves are going

play44:18

through this huge huge transformation

play44:21

dealing with tech how do we actually

play44:23

change the thinking in this new world uh

play44:26

and then the AI stuff on top of it which

play44:28

then is another layer of complexity in

play44:30

terms of changing how we operate what we

play44:33

do in the discipline so it's a it's it's

play44:35

a very interesting exciting but also

play44:38

somewhat you know uh confusing and

play44:41

transformational time for for for for

play44:43

the for the agency do you think that I

play44:45

mean given so American dynamism is

play44:47

having a moment right now right the you

play44:50

know DC and Silicon Valley is going to

play44:51

be talking at least maybe I don't know

play44:53

if more than ever certainly not since

play44:55

the early days but like you know people

play44:57

are talking like you guys both have both

play45:00

Intel and software experience startup

play45:02

experience intersection right government

play45:04

Tech yeah does that do you think that

play45:06

starts to help maybe ease some of the

play45:08

friction in terms of I don't know

play45:10

whether it's making procurement process

play45:12

is faster making adoption a little

play45:13

easier making it easier to kind of hack

play45:15

on stuff and you know just have a

play45:17

startup type mentality like yeah so

play45:19

maybe I'll I'll I'll say something that

play45:21

it would be great if you took us home

play45:22

which is um the issues you just talked

play45:25

about have been around for a very long

play45:26

time and I don't think that's the hirer

play45:28

bit right like of course we can make

play45:29

procurement better of course we can make

play45:30

communication better of course we can

play45:31

have better public private partnership I

play45:33

remember talking about this whenever in

play45:35

the 2000s in the 90s Etc here's what I

play45:37

think is the most important and you

play45:38

alluded it to it before and I think it's

play45:41

so important which is um the internet

play45:45

caught the US flat footed a bit um there

play45:48

was this notion of

play45:50

asymmetry um it ended up having

play45:53

exponential effects because there's so

play45:54

much you know kind of activity and so

play45:57

when it came out it took us a while to

play46:02

come to griffs with it and what I fear

play46:05

my biggest fear is with

play46:07

AI people are fighting the last war and

play46:10

it's to our detriment which is which is

play46:12

a lot of things people are concerned

play46:14

about with AI were really internet

play46:16

things and we've kind of gotten on top

play46:18

of so you can't take that mindset you

play46:19

can't take this mindset of you know

play46:21

investing in this stuff is bad because

play46:22

it's asymmetric you can't take the

play46:24

mindset of like this is inherently

play46:26

exponential you can't take the mindset

play46:27

of like this is core critical

play46:29

infrastructure because it's just very

play46:31

very different this is a new type of

play46:34

Technology it's as useful for us for

play46:38

doing good as it is for changing the

play46:41

thread environment which I actually

play46:42

don't think it changes the threat

play46:43

environment a lot and so I think that

play46:45

both the government and Us in Industry

play46:47

need to come together and acknowledge

play46:49

this is a you know a new technology

play46:51

that's beneficial and then we're better

play46:53

learning about it than running away from

play46:55

it and we can't take these old lessons

play46:56

from the internet and somehow kind of

play46:59

roote apply them because then we're

play47:01

going to miss the train and so for me

play47:02

this is kind of like the the higher bit

play47:05

the most important thing and then a lot

play47:06

of the things you've talked about are

play47:07

important but they will kind of follow

play47:09

in due

play47:10

course wow I'm not sure I'm going to top

play47:13

that uh and and I I and I and I do

play47:17

actually have to be careful in the sense

play47:19

that again sort of the uh the big

play47:21

disclaimer I have to patch on this is

play47:23

you know CIA needs you know we're a

play47:25

we're not a policymaking shop our job is

play47:28

to support policy makers with very

play47:31

objective uh you know by the book

play47:34

analytic support on the questions that

play47:36

they're asking what Martine I think just

play47:39

just outlined is exactly the

play47:41

policymaking debate and discussion going

play47:43

on is this idea of how do you how do you

play47:47

regulate versus incentivize right

play47:49

because I think the thing is is

play47:52

that

play47:53

uh you know what happened with things

play47:56

like privacy and security and other

play47:58

things uh has had has impacted consumers

play48:02

and therefore it impacts lawmakers and

play48:04

so we got pulled into leaning and and

play48:06

you know now along with that whatever is

play48:09

happening in that area right um the

play48:12

issue around 5G right was a big big

play48:15

National Security concern all of a

play48:16

sudden uh then all of a sudden now the

play48:19

chips act in terms of

play48:20

semiconductors uh look at what happened

play48:22

in crypto and now ai so so I'm l in them

play48:26

because at CI we

play48:27

track you can list 5 10 15 you know

play48:30

there there's all these emerging Tech

play48:32

areas that we follow now and we've got

play48:34

World leading domain experts that follow

play48:36

each emerging Tech

play48:38

area uh because again there's demand and

play48:40

support uh support from downtown on on

play48:42

those questions Okay so we've I listed

play48:45

what four um four and then the fifth one

play48:48

is privacy security regulation around

play48:50

social media Etc so these five areas of

play48:53

Technology now have been you know

play48:55

there's a spotlight on them uh to

play48:59

Martin's Point where it lands and ends

play49:01

up that's purely a policymaker domain

play49:05

our job though in that's tricky in many

play49:09

of these situations is that these are by

play49:11

definition emerging Tech areas I mean 5G

play49:14

and semiconductors are scaled uh

play49:16

Industries but the rest of these

play49:18

industries are emergent

play49:20

Industries and emergent Industries is

play49:22

having been in the industry in startups

play49:25

you know we don't know where this

play49:26

stuff's going to land and so all of a

play49:28

sudden becomes really hard to understand

play49:31

who to talk to who to believe uh do we

play49:35

forecast do we not forecast uh where we

play49:37

think it's going to land and there are

play49:39

no solid answers to any of these

play49:41

questions because every six months it's

play49:43

going to be something new and so how do

play49:46

you build policymaking on top of

play49:48

emerging Tech areas that is an art and I

play49:52

don't know how I mean again it's up to

play49:55

law makers and policy makers to figure

play49:57

this out which is where then you end up

play49:59

with things like for instance executive

play50:01

orders rather than laws right it's very

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interesting how the policy-making

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apparatus Works where you know you you

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end up with 100 pages of executive order

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stuff that outlines generally some ideas

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and thoughts and questions and I think

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there's going to be this leaning in and

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convergence that happens between

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industry and regulators and stuff

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because this stuff's moving the tech is

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moving policy makers are learn learning

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more they learn more they ask more

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questions the tech industry moves this

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way so it's an iterative long-term

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process it's up to the players including

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you know the uh the folks with the money

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and the investors uh having a seat at

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the table to to play this uh the good

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news is we the agency is playing very

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much a you know we're friends with

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everyone we talk to everybody that's our

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job gather a lot of intelligence analyze

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it hopefully with AI

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and then help our policy makers sort of

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create this we very much appreciate what

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you do and and thank you for that thank

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you now if you have made it this far

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don't forget that you can get an inside

play51:10

look into a16z American dynamism Summit

play51:13

at

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az.com Summit there you can catch

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several of the exclusive stage talks

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feing policy makers like deputy

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secretary of defense Kathleen Hicks or

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Governor Westmore of Marland plus both

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Founders from companies like andril and

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coinbase and funders like Mark all

play51:31

building toward American dynamism again

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you can find all of the above at

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az.com admit and we'll include a link in

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the show

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notes

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AI FutureDefense TechnologyIntelligence Innovationa16z SummitNational SecurityTechnological AdvancementsGovernment-Industry CollaborationSilicon ValleyPolicy and TechEmerging Threats
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