MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Stock Analysis, Sell Mode?!

Summary

Today's analysis focuses on Marathon Digital and its recent performance amidst a broader downturn in mining stocks. Despite a promising pre-market gap up, the stock struggles at a key support level, coinciding with its 50-day moving average. The video highlights recent negative trends in the stock and the sector, including the impact of a significant shelf offering by Marathon, potentially diluting shares by 25%. Additionally, the discussion touches on Bitcoin's volatile price action, reaching new highs before a sharp pullback. The video concludes with technical insights on potential support levels and the implications of short sale restrictions after significant drops.

Takeaways

• 🔍 The analysis focuses on Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) stock and the overall crypto mining sector on March 5th, 2024.
• 📉 MARA stock was gapping down, with 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions being negative, including a 12% drop on the day of analysis.
• ⚠️ Other crypto mining stocks like Riot Blockchain and CleanSpark were also down, along with MicroStrategy (MSTR) after its convertible notes offering to buy more Bitcoin.
• 💰 Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high of over $70K but then flushed down to $65K on the day of analysis.
• 📄 MARA filed for a $1.5 billion shelf offering, potentially diluting existing shares by 25%, and another filing for 15 million shares for employee benefit plans.
• 🎯 Key support levels for MARA stock are being watched at $22 (50-day moving average), $16-$15, and $15.50 (200-day moving average consolidation zone).
• 🛡 Short sale restriction rules may kick in after a 10% downdraw, limiting short selling below the highest bid.
• 📈 The analysis suggests MARA stock could potentially drop to the $15-$16 range or even down to the $15.50 support level.
• 📊 Technical analysis and monitoring of SEC filings are emphasized as important factors in evaluating MARA's stock movement.
• 🌐 The analysis provides insights into the broader crypto mining industry and its correlation with Bitcoin price movements.

Q & A

What stock is the transcript primarily discussing?

The transcript is primarily discussing Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), a cryptocurrency mining company.

What was the pre-market price range mentioned for MARA?

The pre-market price range mentioned for MARA was between $24.50 and $22.69.

What technical levels is the speaker watching for MARA?

The speaker is watching the $22.69 level, which was a previous support level and also corresponds to the 50-day moving average. Additionally, they are watching the $16 and $15 levels, which are the 200-day moving average and a previous consolidation zone.

What news about MARA's filings is discussed?

The transcript mentions that MARA filed a shelf offering a few days after their earnings report, which could dilute existing shares by up to 25% as they plan to sell up to $1.5 billion worth of shares. Additionally, it mentions a filing on March 4th related to offering securities to employees and employee benefit plans, registering an additional 15 million shares.

What is mentioned about Bitcoin's price action?

The transcript states that Bitcoin was making new all-time highs, reaching over $70,000 before flushing down to $65,000.

What other cryptocurrency mining stocks are mentioned?

The transcript mentions Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) as other cryptocurrency mining stocks that were down on the day.

What is mentioned about the short sale restriction for MARA?

The transcript states that after a 10% down move, a short sale restriction kicks in for MARA, meaning traders cannot sell short at the bid price and must sell above the highest bid.

What is the overall sentiment expressed about MARA's stock price?

The overall sentiment expressed about MARA's stock price is bearish, with the speaker noting that 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions were negative, and suggesting the stock could potentially fall to the $15-$16 level.

What other company is mentioned in relation to Bitcoin?

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is mentioned as a company that did a convertible note offering to buy back more Bitcoin, and its stock price was also down on the day.

What is the speaker's advice to viewers regarding MARA's filings?

The speaker advises viewers to read MARA's SEC filings themselves, stating: "I'm just surprised people don't watch the filings SEC filings you can do it yourself well they did a few days ago right after they did their earnings they reported earnings, they filed shelf offering which means they will be selling little by little, whenever they want whenever they can, um up to 1.5 billion worth of shares, which is diluting your shares by 25%, depending wherever the market cap but, when they filed it market cap of the, mara was around 6 billion so one half, billion 25% so you can assume that your, one share is worth now 75 and also, another filing yesterday March 4th, Securities to be offered to employees, and employees benefit plans you can go, through this form as well read read read.