History Will Be Made Tomorrow! The Crypto Market Will Go Absolutely Bananas - Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and CEO of Real Vision, shares his optimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency market in a recent interview. He predicts that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 per coin by the end of the current cycle, which he anticipates will peak in 2025. Pal also discusses the potential for a new altcoin season, with top altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin expected to outperform Bitcoin as the market advances. He advises against the use of leverage and emphasizes the importance of staying invested in the market, highlighting the risks of getting caught up in smaller market movements or high-yield investments that carry additional risks. Pal's perspective is that the cryptocurrency market is currently the biggest investment opportunity in history, and he encourages investors to be cautious and strategic in their approach.

Takeaways

• 🚀 Cryptocurrency adoption is growing faster than the internet did, with the potential to reach a billion active wallets by the end of next year and 4 billion by 2030.
• 📉 Despite recent downturns with most crypto assets down by double digits, the market is expected to rebound post the 2024 Bitcoin halving event, pushing prices to new all-time highs.
• 💭 Eric Balunas, a senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, suggests that the recent negative narratives about spot Bitcoin ETF flows are incorrect, and that demand will pick up again.
• 📈 Bitcoin's price drop was largely due to crypto natives selling off after new all-time highs, yet it's still up 144% since last June and 47% year to date.
• 🔮 Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision, predicts that Bitcoin could reach as high as $400,000 per coin by the end of the current cycle, marking a 54% increase from current prices.
• 🤔 There's a possibility of an early peak in the crypto cycle, potentially in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching around $200,000.
• 🌐 The most likely scenario according to Pal is a standard bull market with Bitcoin peaking between $200,000 and $250,000, possibly between summer and the end of the year.
• 🌟 Ethereum (ETH) is highlighted as the settlement layer for decentralized finance (DeFi), with a strong likelihood of significant growth as financial services build on top of it.
• 💡 The start of the altcoin season is anticipated after a top altcoin hits a new all-time high, with altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin expected to outperform Bitcoin.
• 💹 A reversal in central bank policy from tightening to quantitative easing (QE) is expected to enhance liquidity conditions, benefiting the crypto market.
• ⚠️ Pal advises against using leverage, focusing on mass adoption of major cryptocurrencies, and being cautious of high-yield investments that come with increased risk.

Q & A

How fast is the adoption rate of crypto compared to the internet?

Crypto is growing at twice the speed of the internet in terms of adoption, making it the fastest adoption of any technology in any asset class the world has ever seen.

What is the projected number of active wallets by the end of next year according to the script?

The script projects that there will be a billion active wallets by the end of next year.

What is the potential price of crypto at 4 billion active wallets as mentioned in the script?

At 4 billion active wallets, the price of crypto could certainly be a million dollars.

What is the significance of the 2024 Bitcoin Hing event?

The 2024 Bitcoin Hing event, expected to occur around midnight Eastern Standard Time on April 19th, is anticipated to resume the bullish trajectory for Bitcoin and other digital assets, potentially pushing prices to new all-time highs.

What is the current state of the cryptocurrency market according to the recent reports mentioned in the script?

Most crypto assets are down by double digits since making fresh multi-year highs earlier in the month, with Bitcoin ETFs largely responsible for the first wave of demand and price spikes.

What does Eric Balunas, a senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, believe about the recent negative narratives regarding spot Bitcoin ETF flows?

Eric Balunas believes that the recent negative narratives about the spot Bitcoin ETF flows are completely wrong. He thinks that the ETFs are only taking a breather and demand will resume again shortly.

What is the potential peak price of Bitcoin in the current cycle according to Raul Pal's outlook?

Raul Pal suggests that Bitcoin could get as high as $400,000 per coin before the cycle ends, which is a 54% increase from current prices.

What does Raul Pal consider the most likely outcome for the crypto market in the near future?

Pal considers a standard bull market the most likely outcome, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 to $250,000, peaking somewhere between the summer and the end of the year.

What is the significance of the altcoin season according to Raul Pal?

According to Raul Pal, the altcoin season will begin an extraordinarily bullish season after a top altcoin makes a new all-time high. He expects top altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin to outperform Bitcoin as the bull market progresses.

What investment advice does Raul Pal give to cryptocurrency investors?

Raul Pal advises against using leverage, staying in the game even when the market pulls back, focusing on the mass adoption of big cryptocurrencies, and being cautious of high-yield opportunities that come with higher risk. He also recommends keeping most assets on a secure platform or hardware wallet to avoid loss.

What are the two ecosystems that Raul Pal has on his radar for the next big layer-one ecosystem?

Raul Pal has the Foundation foru and the Cosmos ecosystem, specifically Celestia, on his radar as potential candidates for the next big layer-one ecosystem.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Cryptocurrency Adoption and Market Trends

The first paragraph discusses the rapid growth of cryptocurrency adoption, comparing it to the internet's growth rate and predicting a slowdown similar to what the internet experienced after its eighth year. It outlines a potential scenario where the growth rate drops from 175% per year to 43% per year, leading to one billion active wallets by the end of the next year and four billion by 2030. The price of crypto is expected to reach a million dollars by 2030. The paragraph also touches on recent market downturns, attributing them to the spot Bitcoin ETFs' negative to flat flows and the selling off of Bitcoin by crypto natives after new all-time highs. Despite these pullbacks, the industry anticipates a bullish trajectory post the 2024 Bitcoin halving event, expected to occur on April 19th, with prices expected to reach new all-time highs.

05:01

🔮 Future Predictions and Market Cycles

The second paragraph delves into future predictions for the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that Bitcoin could peak at $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year, based on a normal market cycle. There's also a possibility of a full bubble cycle due to increased access, regulatory acceptance, and mindshare. The speaker, Raul Pal, gives a 20% probability to both the short cycle and the bubble cycle, with a 60% chance favoring a standard bull market. Pal also discusses the potential for altcoin season, expecting top altcoins to outperform Bitcoin as the bull market progresses. He highlights the importance of the 2024 crypto and macro summer, which could bring better liquidity conditions for the markets. Lastly, Pal emphasizes the significance of identifying the next big ecosystem, with projects like Aptos and the Cosmos ecosystem on his radar.

10:03

💡 Investment Strategies and Risk Management

The third paragraph focuses on investment strategies and risk management in the cryptocurrency market. Pal advises against using leverage, as it can lead to losing all investments before significant rallies. He emphasizes the importance of being part of the game and not getting distracted by small gains. High-yield investments are cautioned against, as they come with increased risk. Pal also warns against leaving balances on vulnerable platforms like MetaMask, advocating for the use of more secure wallets or exchanges. He stresses the importance of not parting with tokens, as the goal is to hold onto them during the massive investment opportunity. Pal's overall thesis is about the dangers of using leverage and the potential for significant price increases in the coming years, predicting that Bitcoin will reach at least a million dollars per coin by 2030.

Keywords

Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency refers to digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security and operate on a decentralized system, such as blockchain technology. In the video, the growth and potential of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are central to the discussion, with predictions of their future value and adoption rates.

Adoption Rate

The adoption rate refers to the speed at which a new technology, in this case, cryptocurrency, is accepted and used by the public. The script mentions that crypto is growing at twice the speed of the internet in terms of adoption, making it a significant focus of the video's analysis.

Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment funds that track the performance of Bitcoin and are traded on stock exchanges. The script discusses their role in the first wave of demand and price spikes for Bitcoin, indicating their importance in the cryptocurrency market dynamics.

Halving Event

The Bitcoin halving event refers to the reduction of the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. This event occurs approximately every four years and is expected to impact the supply and price of Bitcoin. The video anticipates the 2024 Bitcoin halving event to influence the bullish trajectory of Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Liquidity Cycle

A liquidity cycle refers to the fluctuation in the availability of assets that can be easily converted into cash. In the context of the video, it is mentioned alongside the 'everything code cycle' and the debt refinancing cycle, suggesting that these cycles can create favorable conditions for cryptocurrency growth.

Altcoin Season

Altcoin season is a term used to describe a period when alternative cryptocurrencies, or 'altcoins', outperform Bitcoin in terms of price and market interest. The video suggests that after a top altcoin reaches a new all-time high, a bullish season for altcoins will begin, which is an exciting prospect for investors.

Leverage

Leverage in the context of trading refers to the use of borrowed capital to increase the potential return of an investment. However, it also increases risk. The video advises against using leverage in cryptocurrency investments to avoid losing holdings before potential market rallies.

Staking

Staking is the process of participating in the proof-of-stake (PoS) protocol of a cryptocurrency network by holding a certain amount of cryptocurrency in a wallet to support the operations of the network. It is mentioned as a risk-free yield option in the video, contrasting with other higher-risk yield opportunities.

Smart Contract

A smart contract is a self-executing contract with the terms of the agreement directly written into code. They are a key feature of many blockchain platforms, including Ethereum. The video discusses the importance of smart contracts in the context of Ethereum's role as a settlement layer for decentralized applications.

Layer 1

Layer 1 refers to the base protocol or technology that serves as the foundation for a blockchain network. In the video, the discussion about the next big ecosystem in the crypto space involves identifying the next significant Layer 1 solution, which is crucial for the growth and adoption of decentralized applications.

Macro Cycle

A macro cycle refers to large-scale economic patterns or trends that occur over an extended period. The video connects the macro cycle with political and economic events, such as elections and stimulus packages, which can influence the cryptocurrency market's performance.

Highlights

Crypto adoption is growing at twice the speed of the internet, making it the fastest adoption of any technology in history.

Assumption that crypto growth slows to 43% per year, similar to the internet's growth rate post year eight.

Projection that there will be a billion active crypto wallets by the end of next year and 4 billion by 2030.

Prediction that at 4 billion active wallets, the price of crypto could reach a million dollars.

Recent downturn in crypto assets attributed to a temporary pause after significant growth.

Expectations for the 2024 Bitcoin Hing event to reignite the bullish trajectory for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Eric Balunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, refutes negative narratives about spot Bitcoin ETF flows, suggesting a temporary breather.

Despite a 12% drop in Bitcoin's price, it's up 144% since last June and 47% year to date.

Raul Pal anticipates Bitcoin could reach as high as $400,000 per coin before the cycle ends, marking a 54% increase from current prices.

The concept of 'Crypto Summer' aligns with presidential election years and is expected to bring about significant market dynamics.

Pal suggests the possibility of an early peak in the crypto cycle, potentially in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching around $200,000.

Ethereum (ETH) is viewed as the settlement layer for all of the layer two solutions and a safe bet for financial services industry.

The importance of being part of the crypto market during its growth phase, avoiding leverage to ensure participation in future rallies.

Advice for investors to focus on mass adoption of major cryptocurrencies and to be cautious of high-yield opportunities that come with increased risk.

Recommendations to keep most assets on secure platforms like Ledger or Trezor, and not on vulnerable wallets like MetaMask.

Emphasis on the importance of not losing tokens and being careful with investments in the rapidly growing crypto market.

Raul Pal's thesis on the dangers of using leverage in cryptocurrency investments, advocating for a cautious approach to maximize gains.

Prediction that Bitcoin will hit at least a million dollars per coin by 2030, highlighting the potential of the crypto market without leveraging.