Elon Musk: AI Will Change Everything

Summary

Elon Musk shared his insights on the rapid advancement of AI and its profound impact on various sectors, particularly self-driving technology. He highlighted Tesla's progress in developing fully autonomous vehicles using AI and digital neural networks. Musk emphasized the exponential growth of AI compute, likening it to the biggest technology revolution ever witnessed. He discussed the potential challenges such as energy constraints and the need for robust infrastructure. Additionally, Musk teased exciting developments like Tesla's upcoming affordable electric vehicle and a new Roadster capable of achieving blistering acceleration.

Takeaways

• 👾 Elon Musk believes artificial intelligence (AI) will profoundly change the world, particularly with self-driving cars and the rapid advancement of AI compute power.
• 🚗 Tesla is close to achieving fully autonomous self-driving cars that use only cameras and neural networks, without lidar or radar.
• 🌐 The utility of passenger vehicles is expected to increase by a factor of 5 once they become autonomous, as they can be used more like taxis.
• ⚡ AI compute power is increasing at an unprecedented rate, doubling roughly every 6 months, which is driving demand for chips, transformers, and electricity.
• 🤖 Humanoid robots capable of performing almost any task a human can do, like Tesla's Optimus program, are on the horizon.
• 📈 AI is expected to dramatically increase productivity across all fields, from manual labor to supply chain logistics and customer service.
• 🔋 Tesla's next generation vehicle will be a lower-cost model focused on anticipating autonomy and self-driving capabilities.
• ⚡ Power demands are increasing, with vehicles moving from 12V to 48V systems to reduce copper usage and meet regulatory requirements.
• 🌐 Infrastructure development, like widespread charging networks, is crucial for the adoption of electric vehicles alongside technological advancements.
• 🚀 Despite the serious implications of AI, Musk believes it's important to have fun, with plans for high-performance Tesla models that can accelerate from 0-100 km/h in under 1 second.

Q & A

What is one of the most significant ways Elon Musk believes AI will change the world?

Elon Musk believes AI will profoundly change the world primarily through self-driving technology, which will make cars fully autonomous.

Why is self-driving technology not as prevalent in Europe according to Elon Musk?

Self-driving technology is not as prevalent in Europe because the focus has been on making it work in the US first, due to the added complexity of implementing it elsewhere in the world.

How does Elon Musk compare the operation of autonomous vehicles to human drivers?

Elon Musk compares autonomous vehicles' operation to human drivers by noting that both use neural nets and visual inputs - humans use biological neural nets and eyes, while autonomous vehicles use digital neural nets and cameras.

What does Elon Musk imply about the necessity of creating an artificial general intelligence for self-driving cars?

Elon Musk implies that in order to achieve fully autonomous self-driving cars, it's necessary to create a sort of 'baby artificial general intelligence' that can read, assess drivers and pedestrians' intentions, among other tasks.

What potential impact on vehicle utility does Elon Musk predict with autonomous cars?

Elon Musk predicts that the utility of a passenger vehicle could increase by a factor of five, as autonomous cars might be used for up to 50 to 60 hours per week compared to the current average of 10 hours.

What does Elon Musk say about the pace of AI compute advancements?

Elon Musk observes that AI compute is advancing at an unprecedented rate, with the capacity seemingly increasing by a factor of 10 every six months.

Why does Elon Musk mention Nvidia in the context of AI development?

Elon Musk mentions Nvidia because it currently has the best neural net chips, which is a significant factor in the rapid advancement of AI, contributing to Nvidia's very high market cap.

What does Elon Musk predict will be a major future development in robotics?

Elon Musk predicts the development of humanoid robots, capable of doing almost anything a human can do, as a major future development in robotics.

How does Elon Musk view the future of AI in terms of productivity and its impact on various fields?

Elon Musk views AI as having a dramatic increase in productivity across all fields, from manual labor to supply chain logistics, facilitated by sophisticated chatbots and other AI technologies.

What does Elon Musk say about the future affordability and design of electric vehicles?

Elon Musk mentions that Tesla's next generation vehicle will be lower cost and highly anticipates autonomy, aiming to make electric vehicles more affordable and accessible.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 The Impact of AI and Self-Driving Technology

Elon Musk discusses the significant changes AI and self-driving technology will bring in the next 5 to 10 years. He highlights Tesla's efforts in autonomous vehicles, particularly in the U.S., and the potential global impact of fully autonomous cars on vehicle utility and ownership models. Musk delves into the advancements in AI, notably in digital neural networks and the computational power driving these technologies, drawing parallels between human biological processes and AI systems. He predicts exponential growth in AI compute power, mentioning Nvidia's market valuation as an indicator of the sector's rapid expansion. The conversation also touches on the development of humanoid robots and the broader implications of AI in enhancing productivity across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of adapting infrastructure to keep pace with technological advancements.

05:02

🔋 Challenges and Predictions in AI and Energy Demand

Musk addresses the exponential growth in AI and its sustainability, pondering the eventual constraints on resources such as electricity and the necessary hardware to support AI's expansion. He humorously notes the irony of needing transformers to run AI transformers, predicting a future shortage in electricity supply due to the increased demand from AI and electric vehicles. Discussing the automotive industry, Musk talks about the transition to 48-volt systems in vehicles for efficiency and hints at the challenges of scaling infrastructure to meet the demands of electric vehicle charging and AI power consumption. The segment concludes with Musk's views on the automotive industry's future, including Tesla's move to 48-volt systems and the need for robust charging infrastructure.

10:02

🚗 Future Tesla Vehicles and Electric Mobility

Musk reveals Tesla's plans for a next-generation, lower-cost vehicle designed with autonomy in mind, reflecting on the human-like qualities of AI in driving. He teases the new Tesla Roadster's ability to accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in under one second, highlighting Tesla's commitment to fun and innovative vehicle features. The discussion also touches on the challenges of providing affordable electric vehicles in Europe and the importance of infrastructure in supporting the growth of electric mobility and AI. Musk expresses gratitude for the partnership and support in advancing Tesla's mission, emphasizing the synergy between technological innovation and supportive infrastructure in shaping the future of mobility.

Keywords

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence, or AI, refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think and learn like humans. In the context of the video, AI is described as a rapidly advancing technology with the potential to profoundly change the world, especially through developments in self-driving technology and enhancing productivity across various fields. Elon Musk emphasizes the unprecedented pace of AI advancements, suggesting a future where AI compute could grow exponentially, impacting industries from automotive to customer service.

💡Self-Driving Technology

Self-driving technology refers to the development of autonomous vehicles capable of navigating without human intervention. In the script, Musk discusses the effort Tesla has put into this area, highlighting its potential to make cars fully autonomous. He points out that achieving this requires the vehicle to possess a form of 'baby artificial general intelligence' for tasks like reading and understanding the intentions of other road users, suggesting a future where cars could significantly increase their utility and efficiency.

💡Neural Networks

Neural networks are a subset of AI designed to recognize patterns. They are inspired by the human brain's architecture and are used to interpret complex data. Musk explains that self-driving cars use 'digital neural networks' to process visual information from cameras, analogous to the 'biological neural networks' and eyes humans use to drive. This comparison highlights the sophisticated AI technology underpinning Tesla's self-driving capabilities.

💡Autonomy

Autonomy in the context of this video refers to the ability of machines, such as vehicles, to operate without human intervention. Musk predicts that the progression towards full autonomy will transform the automotive industry by increasing the utility of passenger vehicles, as autonomous cars could be in use for a significantly larger fraction of the time compared to traditional vehicles.

💡Productivity

Productivity, as discussed by Musk, is expected to dramatically increase due to AI advancements. AI can automate tasks across various sectors from manual labor to logistics, potentially revolutionizing efficiency in production and service industries. This suggests a future where AI-powered tools and machines significantly enhance human capabilities and streamline operations.

💡AI Compute

AI Compute refers to the processing power required to run artificial intelligence programs. Musk notes an explosive growth in AI compute, with capabilities doubling at an unprecedented rate. This growth is pivotal for advancements in AI technologies, driving innovations in areas like self-driving cars and intelligent customer service solutions.

💡Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electric Vehicles, or EVs, are vehicles powered by electric motors rather than internal combustion engines. The video script touches on the importance of EVs in the context of AI and autonomy, with Musk discussing the development of infrastructure like the Tesla Supercharger network to support the widespread adoption of EVs, indicating a significant shift towards sustainable transportation solutions.

💡Humanoid Robots

Humanoid Robots are robots designed to resemble and mimic human actions. Musk mentions Tesla's work on the Optimus program, aiming to create humanoid robots capable of performing tasks similar to humans. This concept illustrates the broader potential of AI and robotics to supplement human work in various environments.

💡Infrastructure

Infrastructure, in this context, refers to the physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise. Musk highlights the challenge of scaling infrastructure, such as electrical grids and charging stations, to meet the demands of rapidly advancing technologies like EVs and AI compute, stressing the importance of infrastructure development in parallel with technological advancements.

💡Voltage Transformers

Voltage Transformers are devices used to convert electricity from one voltage to another. Musk predicts a future shortage of voltage transformers as a bottleneck for AI compute, emphasizing the essential role of these components in powering the increasingly electricity-intensive demands of AI technologies and electric vehicles.

Highlights

Elon Musk discusses the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence computing power, increasing by a factor of 10 every 6 months, faster than any other technology he has seen.

Tesla is working on fully autonomous self-driving cars that can navigate without human intervention using only cameras and digital neural networks.

The utility of passenger vehicles is expected to increase by a factor of 5 once they become fully autonomous, as they can operate like taxis for longer hours.

AI is progressing rapidly in areas like online question-answering, essay writing, and image understanding.

Tesla's Optimus program is developing humanoid robots capable of doing almost anything a human can do.

Elon Musk believes we are on the edge of the biggest technology revolution ever, driven by AI advancements.

The rapid growth of AI computing power is leading to shortages in chips, voltage step-down transformers, and eventually electricity supply.

The automotive industry is expected to transition from the long-standing 12V architecture to 48V systems, reducing copper usage and enabling more powerful electrical systems.

Tesla's next-generation vehicle will be a lower-cost model focused on autonomous driving capabilities.

Elon Musk believes that as AI gets better, self-driving cars will feel smooth and intuitive, like a human is driving.

Tesla is working on a new Tesla Roadster that can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in under 1 second, bringing fun and performance to electric vehicles.

There is a race between technology advancements and infrastructure development, with a need to ensure sufficient power generation and distribution for the growing demand from electric vehicles and AI computing.

Elon Musk acknowledges the need for affordable battery electric vehicles in Europe, where many consumers can only spend around €20,000-25,000 on a new car.

The rapid growth of AI and electric vehicles is creating a tremendous demand for electrical equipment and power generation infrastructure.

Elon Musk initially felt depressed about the potential impact of AI, but reconciled by embracing the opportunity to witness the 'AI apocalypse' rather than missing it.

Transcripts

welcome big hand to Elon

Musk thank you thanks oh how are you

good

fantastic we have we have had two we

have two days of AI and geni and

whatsoever but you look real my head is

very big in the screen added reality too

I suppose we haven't had so much talk

about AI in these two days so we need

your opinion what do you think about the

next 5 to 10 years on AI please give us

a you artificial insemination elligence

what do you think about

that but try try audience I say um yes

artificial intelligence is is is

certainly going to profoundly change the

world one of the most significant ways

is self-driving so we've been putting a

lot of effort into self-driving

technology for cars you you don't see it

quite as much in Europe because we we

first have to make it work in the US

before we increase the complexity of

trying to make it elsewhere in the world

but I think we're quite close to having

the car be fully autonomous so for

example like right now I could I'm in

Austin and if I went to drive say to the

airport the car could take me to the

airport with no interventions using and

all it's using are digital Neal Nets

other words artificial intelligence and

ceras so there's no liar radar nothing

and in fact if you think about how

humans drive cars humans are biological

neural Nets and we use eyes so it's eyes

and biological neur neets the analog is

digital the analog for digital is

cameras and digital neuron Nets this is

working remarkably well the it has been

quite difficult to do this because turns

out that in order to use in order for

this to work the car has to really be

quite fully intelligent really as as a

subset for example has to learn how to

read everything and and and how to

assess intention among drivers and

pedestrians so it's it's you're end up

creating sort of a baby artificial

general intelligence to solve this but

this will obviously be extremely

profound and obvious I'm talking about

Automotive here I'll get into the

broader question in a minute but the the

average use of a passenger vehicle is

only about 10 hours per week out of

hours the point at which it is

autonomous I think You' see probably a

third of the hours being used because it

would be like a taxi maybe my guess is

like 50 to 60 hours which means that the

utility of a passenger vehicle would

increase by uh a factor of five and this

is this is gigantic but we'll see so

that that's the one motive then there's

what people have think have certainly

experienced online where you can ask it

a question and ask for an essay or a

picture or to understand a picture and

that is progressing rapidly what what

I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is

I've never seen any technology Advance

faster than this the the artificial

intelligence compute coming online

appears to be increasing by a factor of

10 every 6 months like obviously that

cannot continue at at such a high rate

for forever or will exceed the mass of

the universe but I've never seen

anything like it and this is why you see

nvidia's market cap being so gigantic CU

they currently have the best neural net

chips I mean I think the didn't nvidia's

market cap exceed the GDP of Canada or

something increasingly anyway it was

quite high so yeah you know it may go

higher who knows chip Rush is bigger

than any Gold Rush that has ever existed

so and then there will also be robots

like humanoid humanoid robots not not

just sort industrial industrial robots

are of course familiar with you use

industrial robots we use industrial

robots everyone does but they're

programmed explicitly and they they

don't walk around but Tesla with for

example the Optimus program is making a

humanoid robot that is capable of doing

almost anything a human can do um I mean

I hope I just hope the the robots are

nice to us you know we hope so we hope

so too youon that the robots will be

nice to us and maybe let's say in this

regard because you are working on what

can we expect of let's say support which

is going to come maybe also a little bit

with regard to production because in the

BOS connected world we were also

discussing application of AI gen AI into

production in order to Bo productivity

maybe a couple of thoughts on this one

too well the plus side of AI is that I

think productivity will increase

dramatically so across every field

whether it be manual labor to supply

chain Logistics there's already a lot of

movement to use chatbots like

sophisticated chatbots for customer

service for example where they can

answer quite quite complex questions

already but I mean I think we really are

on the edge of probably the biggest

technology Revolution that has ever

existed you know there's supposedly sort

of a Chinese curse may you live in

interesting times Well we live in the

most interesting of times the most most

interesting and for for a while I was a

little bit it was making me bit a bit

depressed frankly cuz I was like well

will we be will they take over will we

be useless but then the way that I

reconciled myself to this question was

would I rather be alive to see AI

apocalypse or not I'm like I guess I'd

like to see this

uh you know that's a good thought going

to be boring that's a good thought

because you mentioned every six months

that's an exponential curve right

exponential curves are beautiful but

there's kind of a question where does it

ever end right do you see any end yet or

will it go on for 3 four five years like

this because then we talk 100 folds

right thousand folds of time yeah that's

why I said obviously yeah I mean you you

can't you can't grow at that rate

without quickly exceeding the mass of

the universe so clearly it's going to

hit some constraints the constraints

that AI compute and very predictable

I've actually predicted this over a year

ago so over a year ago the shortage was

chips neural net chips then I it was

very easy for predict that the next

shortage will be voltage step down

Transformers so it's you you've got to

feed the power to these things so if

you've got 100 to 300 Kilts coming out

of a utility and it's got to step all

the way down to you know6 volts that's a

lot of stepping down so now we're in

step down and this is my not that funny

joke which is that they need

Transformers to run Transformers cuz you

know the AI is like there's this thing

called a transformer in AI it's a it's a

neur a neural I don't know it's a

combination of sort of neural Nets and

they're running out of Transformers to

run Transformers then the next shortage

will be electricity so I think next year

you'll see the electricity that they

just can't find enough electricity run

all the chips I mean during the chip

crisis we certainly all did have many

contacts fortunately we were able to

master it together of course we all

would like uh to avoid a second chip

crisis but with regard to your to your

comment on on power demand we all know

today vehicles have 3 to 4 kilowatt

power Dem demand for the peripherals but

this is continuously going up and teslam

has recently launched the Cyber truck

which I believe is mostly coming with 48

volt do you see this as a let's say

further disruption of automotive

industry another technology change

within Automotive yeah I I think you

know the automotive industry has been

living with 12 volts for a very long

time a century roughly I think it

started off as six bolts and then they

needed a a more powerful starter motor

and then they doubled it to 12 volts

although it's it's actually more like

13.7 volts you're right absolutely yeah

and and the bus voltage actually varies

a lot for those since probably some

electrical engineers in the audience

like 12 volts is a very rough

approximation but it's it's it's really

it's really kind of a arbitrary low

voltage and if you look at say power

ethernet it's running at 50 volts or

roughly 48 volts and we set it at 4 48

volts because anything really above that

you start to run into regulatory

concerns and power ethernet is like I

said roughly at that level but the

advantage of obviously quadrupling the

voltage is that you can substantially

reduce how much copper or conductor is

used in the car so you can use very

small copper wires for you know it's

rough roughly a roughly a quarter not

exactly a quarter but roughly a quarter

as much as as much copper is needed for

48 volts as 412 so I think it's it's a

logical move that's that's really the

next step for the low voltage

architecture for the car I think

ultimately long-term War cars will be 48

it's it's interesting that many people

love electric vehicles and want to have

them but some are harmed by a missing

infrastructure that would be the same

actually as the other thing we will have

lots of chips ready but we will have had

the power to to operate them there's a

race between infrastructure and

Technology right now and uh you're also

certain technology may win which is a

problem because actually infrastructure

should win we should have all the

infrastructure we need is that correct

yeah are you talking about like sort of

charg infrastructure for cars and that

kind of thing well the the reason Tesa

developed the sort of global supercharge

network was specifically to address that

point and the point you're making which

is people need to be comfortable that

they can travel long distances and

charge their car wherever they go

unfortunately electricity is almost

everywhere and so it you know it's not

not all that rare unless you're really

far out in the countryside or something

so yeah you need the super need you need

the charging infrastructure and the

electricity to charge electric cars in

fact the the the simultaneous growth of

electric cars and AI both of which need

electricity both of which need voltage

Transformers actually I think is

creating a tremendous demand for

electrical equipment and for electrical

power generation maybe one more question

Elon with regard to new vehicle designs

coming to the market of course you

cannot share with us confidential

Secrets but but anyways what are the

things you believe let's say we will see

over the next years in the market and

maybe just a small comment in Europe we

see a shortage of affordable battery

electric vehicles in the offerings uh

because many people in Europe are only

able to spend like 20,000 25,000 for

their vehicles so so what are the new

vehicle types vehicle designs you you

are thinking about at Tesla well our

next Generation vehicle will be a a low

a lower cost vehicle also that is very

focused on a

like I said the we really are getting to

the point where the car can drive itself

well when you're in the in the US I

would recommend perhaps giving you know

trying out our car and see seeing how it

works it's remarkable you know as the AI

gets better and better it actually feels

quite humanlike in the way that it

drives it does things that you wouldn't

expect a computer to do it's it's not

like a robot dancing you know it's like

it feels smooth and and intuitive so our

next Generation vehicle which're quite

far along on is is very much

anticipating autonomy and then of course

we've got some fun things as well like

on our the new Tesla roads which will be

able to do 0 to 100 kilm in under 1

second great thank you very much you

know that's good we need that's good

news that's do some fun stuff too you

know that's the that's the that's the

dessert that's the cherry on the cake

but it's it's fun you're going to have

fun stuff too yeah right no that's very

good news because in the end there's a

lot of people here in the room that

still on the list to buy an electric

vehicle and you just announced something

which they probably want to buy so thank

you very much thank you very much and

thank you extremely for 15 years of

partnership and work together we're

inspired Always by your speed attitude

or graphicness and things come out thank

you very much T must all right and thank

you for your support very very much

appreciated