Bitcoin (BTC): Get Ready for a New Trading Week! Bullish and Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Scenarios

Summary

In this Bitcoin update video, the host discusses intraday market movements, focusing on potential bullish scenarios and resistance levels. They analyze wave counts on smaller time frames, considering whether the current dip is part of a larger bullish trend or signaling a more bearish turn. Key support and resistance levels are identified, with 72k and 75k as critical breakout points, while a break below 56.7k could shift the outlook to bearish. The video emphasizes the importance of monitoring price action for potential entry points in an uptrend.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker provides an intraday update on Bitcoin's price movements, noting a small reaction to resistance but not considering it a sell-off.
• 📊 The script discusses two bullish scenarios for Bitcoin's wave count, questioning whether the market is in the third wave of an upward trend or still in Wave 1.
• 🗓️ A substantial low was identified on the 5th of July, which sets the base for the bullish thesis, suggesting a five-wave move up.
• 🔢 The Fibonacci (FIB) levels are mentioned, with 72k and 72830 as potential resistance levels, indicating price targets for Bitcoin's upward movement.
• 🔄 The speaker acknowledges a possible extension of the current wave, suggesting Bitcoin could reach higher prices before a potential pullback.
• 📉 The support zone for a potential Wave 2 pullback is identified as 56737 to 63070, indicating where the price could find support if it dips.
• 📌 The importance of the last swing low at 66800 is highlighted as an early indication that Wave 1 might be complete.
• 🚫 Two confirmation levels for the completion of Wave 1 are given: a break below 66800 and below the upper support region of 64831.
• 🟢 The speaker considers a break above 72200 and 74800 as confirmation of the third wave unfolding, indicating a stronger bullish trend.
• 🔄 The script mentions bearish divergences on smaller time frames, such as the 1-hour chart, which could signal potential weakness in the short term.
• 📍 Key resistance and support levels are identified, with the next breakout point being the last swing high at 70k, followed by 72k and the FIB level at 72.2k.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video update?

The main topic of the video update is the intraday analysis of Bitcoin's price movement and potential scenarios for its future trend.

What does the speaker suggest about the current reaction to the resistance line?

The speaker suggests that the current reaction to the resistance line is not a sell-off but could be a dip that might turn into something more bearish.

What are the two scenarios the speaker is watching for in the Bitcoin price structure?

The two scenarios are whether Bitcoin is already in the third wave to the upside or still stuck in Wave 1, with both scenarios being bullish but differing in their wave counts.

What is the significance of the date mentioned, July 5th, in the script?

July 5th is significant as it marks the potential bottoming of Wave 4, setting the base case for the wave count analysis.

What is the potential next major Fibonacci (FIB) level mentioned in the script?

The potential next major Fibonacci level mentioned is 72,830, which could be a resistance point for Bitcoin's price movement.

What does the speaker mean by 'running flat' in the context of wave analysis?

In the context of wave analysis, 'running flat' refers to a corrective wave pattern where the price does not move significantly, potentially setting up for another high.

What is the '61.8 extension' mentioned in the script and its significance?

The '61.8 extension' is a Fibonacci extension level used in technical analysis to predict potential price movements. It signifies a resistance level at 72,200, which is important for determining the continuation of the bullish trend.

What is the support zone for Wave 2 mentioned in the script?

The support zone for Wave 2 is between 56,737 and 63,027, indicating the price levels where the market might find support if Wave 1 has completed.

What are the earliest indications that Wave 5 of Wave 1 is complete according to the speaker?

The earliest indications that Wave 5 of Wave 1 is complete would be a break below the last swing low formed at 66,800, providing an initial signal of a potential trend reversal.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential opportunities in the market?

The speaker suggests that pullbacks in uptrends can offer great opportunities, and if the price dips into the yellow box, it would be a chance to enter the market with a bullish perspective.

What would change the speaker's perspective to a more bearish outlook?

The speaker's perspective would change to a more bearish outlook if there is a break below 56,737, indicating a significant shift in the market trend.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin Intraday Update: Rising Trends and Key Levels

This video provides an intraday update on Bitcoin's current market behavior. The speaker discusses a small reaction to a resistance line, describing it as a dip rather than a sell-off. Two bullish scenarios are considered: whether Bitcoin is already in the third wave up or still in Wave 1. The wave count analysis indicates a potential completion of Wave 1 at around 72k to 75k, with further resistance at these levels. The video highlights the importance of watching for structural support around 66.8k and 64.8k to confirm if a wave has topped, as well as opportunities for pullbacks to be potential buying points.

05:01

🔍 Monitoring Key Levels and Market Opportunities

The discussion continues with an analysis of key resistance and support levels for Bitcoin. The speaker emphasizes the significance of the 72.2k and 75k levels as critical for confirming the continuation of the third wave. They also outline the importance of the 66.7k and 64.8k levels as indicators of a potential wave top. The current market conditions are described as bullish, with a watchful eye on any pullbacks that may present buying opportunities. The video concludes with a call to action for viewers to like, comment, subscribe, and check out additional content on the channel's other platforms.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency and is often used as a benchmark for the entire crypto market. In the video, the speaker is providing an update on Bitcoin's price movements and analyzing its potential future trends, indicating its central role in the content.

💡Intraday update

An intraday update refers to a brief analysis or report on the price action of a financial instrument within a single trading day. The video script mentions an 'intraday update' to emphasize that the speaker is focusing on the short-term price movements of Bitcoin, rather than a longer-term perspective.

💡Resistance line

In technical analysis, a resistance line is a price level that an asset has difficulty surpassing, as it is seen as a barrier to higher prices due to selling pressure. The script refers to a 'resistance line' to describe a price level where Bitcoin is currently facing a challenge to move higher.

💡Wave count

Wave count is a term used in technical analysis, specifically in the Elliott wave theory, which suggests that financial markets move in repetitive cycles or 'waves.' The speaker uses 'wave count' to explain the potential patterns in Bitcoin's price action and to predict future movements.

💡Bullish

Bullish refers to a sentiment or market condition where prices are expected to rise. The video script uses 'bullish' to describe the speaker's positive outlook on Bitcoin's price and to indicate that they believe the price will increase.

💡Fibonacci levels

Fibonacci levels are a set of ratios derived from the Fibonacci sequence, often used in technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance levels in financial markets. In the script, the speaker refers to 'FIB level' to discuss specific price points that may act as resistance or support for Bitcoin's price.

💡Confluence of resistance

Confluence of resistance refers to a situation where multiple resistance levels converge at a single price point, making it a stronger barrier for an asset's price to overcome. The script mentions 'Confluence of resistance' to highlight a price area where Bitcoin may face significant selling pressure.

💡Pullback

A pullback is a temporary decrease in price after a period of increase. The speaker in the video anticipates a 'pullback' in Bitcoin's price, suggesting that it could be a buying opportunity for investors who are waiting for a lower entry point.

💡Support zone

In technical analysis, a support zone is a price range where an asset is expected to find buying interest and potentially reverse a downward trend. The script discusses the 'support zone' to identify the price levels at which Bitcoin might find a floor during a potential pullback.

💡Divergence

Divergence in technical analysis refers to a situation where the price of an asset and an indicator, such as a moving average or oscillator, move in opposite directions. The script mentions 'bearish divergences' to suggest that despite the overall bullish trend, there may be warning signs of a potential trend reversal on smaller time frames.

💡Breakout point

A breakout point is a price level at which an asset's price moves beyond a previously established resistance level, often signaling the start of a new trend. The video script refers to 'breakout point' to discuss the critical price levels that, if surpassed, could indicate a continuation of Bitcoin's upward movement.

Highlights

Introduction to an intraday update video about Bitcoin's market movement.

Current market is grinding higher with a small reaction to resistance line.

Dip in the market may be turning into a more bearish trend.

Many are waiting for a pullback in the market.

Focus on smaller time frame perspective for updates.

Two bullish scenarios presented based on wave count analysis.

Discussion on whether the market is in the third wave to the upside or still in Wave 1.

Wave count suggests a substantial low on the 5th of July as the base case.

Potential for a five-wave move up with Wave 4 possibly bottoming on the 5th of July.

Analysis of the Fibonacci extension levels for potential resistance points.

Confluence of resistance around 72k as a significant price point.

Support zones for Wave 2 identified for potential pullbacks.

Bullish stance as long as the price holds above 56.7k.

Potential opportunities in pullbacks during uptrends.

Early indication of Wave 5 completion would be a break below the last swing low at 66.8k.

Confirmation levels for Wave completion and potential market direction.

Break above 72.2k and 74.8k could confirm the unfolding of the third wave.

Importance of the last swing high and resistance line at 70k for the next breakout point.

Current market situation is in a range, with a breakout potential but not a sell-off.

Bearish divergences might be forming on the 1-hour chart.

Overall bullish scenarios with potential opportunities in pullbacks.

Perspective may change to more bearish if a break below 56.77k occurs.

Transcripts

[Music]

hello hello and welcome to another

update video about Bitcoin just a quick

intraday update here as we are grinding

higher yes we've seen a small reaction

now to the next to our resistance line

here but I wouldn't call that a sell off

you know this is just at the moment a

dip maybe it's turning into something

more bearish but again you know I think

a lot of people are actually waiting for

a bit of a pullback here so let's take a

look at the structure I only want to

share with you the smaller time frame my

perspective about the smaller time frame

any updates because the previous update

already included the daily chart uh if

you're interested in updates about the

daily chart maybe check out the previous

video I uploaded earlier today but here

this is just an intraday update

um watching for two scenarios um here

basically to keep it very simple the

first scenario is the yellow count both

are bullish by the way both are bullish

it's just um the question is just are we

already in the third wave to the upside

or are we still stuck in Wave 1 so we

have in the yellow well let's let's

start with the wave count which at the

moment still appears to be a bit more

probable it is the scenario in which

obviously the wave four bottomed here on

the 5 fth of July I mean that's that's

the base case that sets the scene right

we have um substantial low in place on

the 5th of July that's the thesis and we

can make that assumption because we have

a five wave move up so we have Wave 1

wave two wave three this could have been

a wave four running flat with one more

high in the making which is now either

done or we might still extend a little

higher so I wouldn't I wouldn't rule out

um even in this yellow wave 1 which is

basically there's no evidence it's

completed right so we could still extend

a bit higher I wouldn't rule out that it

gets to 72k maybe even the next major

FIB level here at

72830 um let me just double check

something I thought that might have

changed a little bit or has it shifted a

bit let me just double check that

sometimes these things shift yeah it

shifted

bit just a little bit I'm not sure

why oh yeah shifted a bit let me just

double check let me just double check

the fibs sometimes either accidentally

or due to trading view glitch these

shift so we take the length of waves 1

to

three we go to the low of the wave four

and we're actually looking for the 61.8

extension okay 72,2

now pretty much um and then the

78.6 okay which is just below 75k I

think before it was before it was around

75k just surprised it shifted a

bit just double triple check that but no

that seems to be fine yeah okay shifted

a bit okay anyway it doesn't change much

the idea is still we could grind a bit

higher so that means around 72k there's

now a bit of a Confluence of resistance

and I wouldn't I wouldn't rule out that

um Bitcoin extends its wave one a little

bit higher so that would give us a

completed five-wave move we already have

a five wve move completed it could top

at any time what would be an initial top

for wave 1 so that we can watch for a

wave two also what we need to do we need

to adjust now with that additional high

that formed today the support zone for

Wave

2 Okay so if we have five waves up

completed again could top at any time um

but it's that's nothing here in terms of

price action doesn't confirm anything

but as soon as Wave 1 has stopped the

wave two could unfold and support is

56,7 37 to 63,0 270 which means as long

as we're holding

56.7k I'm bullish right and um any

pullbacks can be opportunities and the

yellow box supports the price in any

wave to pullback and it would be an ABC

structure but there's currently no

evidence that wave five of one has

started the earliest indication and I

also need to adjust here this micro

support to get this earliest signal so

the earliest indication that wave five

of one is complete would be a break

below the last swing low Saturday low

that formed at 66,800 so that should be

some structural support in that area but

yeah that would be the earliest evidence

earliest indication better would be a

break below the upper support region so

below

64.8k so got two confirmation levels

there and then we can watch the yellow

box yeah if they trigger and if the

price dips into the yellow box yeah this

would be an opportunity because the

market is bullish and pullbacks in Opp

in in uptrends can be you know great

opportunities so in the white count if

we continue to extend and break above 72

,200 here then we might already be in

the third of the third wave so that this

wave to in yellow actually already

bottomed on Thursday which is the

alternative count labeled alternative

even though it's also very likely and in

this count we already completed another

one two set up and we could now be in a

third wave stuck in the midst of a third

wave and the third of a third okay so

this is what I will think is going well

this is what I will view as more likely

if we break above that 61.8 extension at

72,1 180 and a break above the yeah

pretty much

74.8k level would confirm further that

the third wave is already unfolding and

if we get a break above that 78.6

extension at around 75k just below that

then I will take the yellow count of the

chart because then I don't think it's

reasonable to watch anymore for a deeper

wave two pull back and that's the

situation at the moment which means a

few levels that matter next breakout

point to the upside is the last swing

High here which is today's high where

the price got rejected at the resistance

line 70k then 72k these are the next

levels that really matter just above

that this 72.2k level which is the FIP

level and to the downside the Saturday

low is very important to give a first

indic that we've actually topped and

that level is at just to remind you

66.7k below that level

64831 should give you all the relevant

support levels that matter and

resistance levels and yeah at the moment

we just sort of stuck in a in a Range

just below a breakout point today the

price couldn't break out but that is not

a sell off you know that's just

minimally minimal price action stay on

the trend stay on the time frame where

you see the trend the trend is still up

up haven't topped yet even though I

think on the smaller time frames some

bearish divergences might be forming

here the 1 hour chart for

example

um really on the smallest time but that

is already in effect I mean that already

you had the Divergence

here and we're already coming down so

yeah so let's see if the price can hold

above that last swing

low and any break above 70k could send

us to 72 next overall bullish scenarios

only at the moment but pullbacks are I

think what a lot of people are waiting

for and they could offer opportunities

as I said yeah I will only really change

my perspective about this chart become

more bearish if a break below

56,7 37 occurs that's the update about

Bitcoin hope you like the update if you

did please hit a like button leave a

comment and subscribe and if you really

like the content then please check out

the channel membership also make sure

that you follow us on Instagram and

Twitter for additional content thanks a

lot for watching bye-bye