Sam Altman and Bill Gates Talk AI | Is GPT-5 close?
Summary
TLDRLe script aborde les implications de l'IA avancée et la pertinence de l'humanité dans un monde de post-pénurie. Il souligne les défis philosophiques et sociaux de cette transition, ainsi que les opportunités pour l'éducation et la productivité. L'importance de la sûreté des technologies de l'IA est également discutée, avec des propositions pour un contrôle international. Enfin, le script mentionne les perspectives de l'IA dans des domaines tels que la programmation, les soins de santé et l'éducation, ainsi que l'excitation pour le développement de la robotique.
Takeaways
- 🤖 L'impact potentiel de l'IA sur la société est énorme, mais la transition vers un monde post-carence pourrait être difficile à gérer.
- 🚀 L'IA est en train de suivre un cours technologique irréversible et il est confident qu'elle fonctionnera, bien que le monde semblera très différent.
- 🧪 Des défis éthiques subsistent, comme l'organisation de la société sans la rareté de ressources.
- 📈 L'IA apporte des gains de productivité considérables, notamment dans les domaines de la programmation, des soins de santé et de l'éducation.
- 🤔 Il est important de se concentrer sur l'optimisation contextuelle plutôt que sur l'optimisation comportementale pour les startups.
- 🛠️ L'API d'OpenAI continuera d'être améliorée en termes de vitesse, de fiabilité et de coût.
- 🚫 Il n'est pas recommandé de se concentrer uniquement sur les limitations actuelles de GPT-4 lors de la création d'entreprises, car de nombreux problèmes seront résolus dans GPT-5.
- 🤖 Les progrès dans les robots et la technologie matérielle sont excitants et permettront d'utiliser les modèles de langage pour réaliser des choses incroyables.
- 🥊 La concurrence dans le domaine de l'IA est à la fois motivante et stimulante, pousant les entreprises à s'améliorer constamment.
- 📊 Les modèles d'IA actuels sont les plus simples que nous ayons jamais vus, et il est prévu qu'ils continueront d'améliorer pendant les 5 à 10 prochaines années.
- 🌌 L'existence de messages codés dans l'univers, comme dans le livre 'Contact', suscite la réflexion sur notre propre intelligence et notre place dans l'univers.
Q & A
Quel est le principal sujet de préoccupation mentionné dans le script ?
-Le principal sujet de préoccupation mentionné est la prise de contrôle du système et la question de la destination humaine face à l'avènement technologique.
Comment le locuteur aborde-t-il la question de l'éducation dans un futur potentiel de post-pénurie ?
-Le locuteur se demande comment la société sera organisée et quel sens donner à l'éducation dans un monde sans pénurie, où les générations futures pourraient avoir des perspectives différentes en termes de destination et d'organisation sociale.
Quelles sont les implications de la technologie AI sur la productivité et les emplois selon le locuteur ?
-Le locuteur mentionne que la technologie AI apportera une amélioration de la productivité et que les gens trouveront de nouveaux emplois et de meilleurs emplois. Il croit que donner des outils plus puissants aux gens leur permettra de faire des choses qualitativement différentes.
Quels sont les domaines où le locuteur est le plus enthousiaste au sujet de l'application de l'IA ?
-Le locuteur exprime son enthousiasme pour l'application de l'IA dans les domaines de la programmation, des soins de santé et de l'éducation, soulignant que ces domaines sont sur une courbe d'amélioration rapide.
Comment le locuteur envisage-t-il la régulation de l'IA à grande échelle ?
-Il mentionne que les clusters de calcul au-dessus d'un certain seuil de puissance devraient soumettre à l'équivalent d'inspecteurs des armes internationaux et que les modèles doivent être disponibles pour audit de sécurité et des tests pendant la formation et avant le déploiement.
Quelle est la position du locuteur sur la concurrence dans le domaine de l'IA ?
-Le locuteur considère la concurrence comme une force motrice positive, qui pousse les gens à s'améliorer et à innover plus rapidement, bien qu'elle puisse aussi être gênante.
Quels sont les projets que le locuteur mentionne avoir mis sur hold et pourquoi ?
-Le locuteur a mis sur hold le projet de robots car ils ont commencé trop tôt et n'ont pas aidé à faire progresser la recherche en apprentissage automatique, notamment à cause de problèmes avec les simulateurs et des tendons.
Quelles sont les attentes du locuteur pour les prochaines versions de GPT ?
-Le locuteur suggère que les limitations de GPT-4 seront partiellement résolues ou complètement corrigées dans GPT-5, et il estime que les modèles d'IA seront de plus en plus puissants et disponibles.
Quel est le contexte dans lequel Sam Altman a parlé de GPT-5 ?
-Sam Altman a mentionné GPT-5 lors d'un discours à un rassemblement des anciens de sa firme de capital-risque Y Combinator en septembre, où il a parlé de l'IA et de l'avenir du monde.
Quel est l'incident mémorable mentionné qui concerne l'IA de ChatGPT ?
-Un incident mémorable mentionné est que quelqu'un a trouvé une image qui semble 'casser' ChatGPT lorsqu'elle est téléchargée et que l'on demande à l'IA ce qu'elle voit.
Quelle réflexion philosophique est évoquée par Andrej Karpathy dans le script ?
-Andrej Karpathy réfléchit sur la signification de la vie et la possibilité que le créateur de l'univers ait laissé un message pour les civilisations, comme dans le livre 'Contact', et la notion que nous devrions peut-être prouver notre existence et notre intelligence au sein de l'univers.
Outlines
🤖 L'impact de l'IA sur la société et la productivité
Le paragraphe aborde les implications de l'IA sur la société, en soulignant la transition vers un monde post-carence où les générations futures pourraient avoir une approche différente pour organiser la société. Il mentionne également les défis psychologiques liés à travailler avec la technologie et les espoirs placés dans l'éducation pour l'avenir. L'auteur exprime sa confiance que nous réussirons à naviguer dans ce cours technologique inarrêtable et sa crainte quant à la façon dont sa propre pensée est façonnée par la carence. Il insiste sur la nécessité de soumettre les clusters de calcul au-dessus d'un certain seuil de puissance à des inspections internationales et de vérifications de sécurité. Enfin, il discute l'excitation liée aux gains de productivité avec l'IA, en particulier dans les domaines de la programmation, des soins de santé et de l'éducation.
🚀 Perspectives sur l'IA et les startups - YC et GPT-5
Ce paragraphe se concentre sur les conseils de Sam Altman aux fondateurs de startups lors d'un événement à Y Combinator. Il suggère que les entreprises doivent optimiser le contexte plutôt que le comportement et souligne l'importance de l'information supplémentaire via des techniques comme le RAG. Il prédit que les limitations actuelles de GPT-4 seront résolues dans GPT-5, et recommande aux entreprises de ne pas se concentrer uniquement sur la résolution des limitations de GPT-4. Il mentionne également les développements récents dans le domaine de l'IA, y compris des rumeurs sur la sortie de GPT-5 et la découverte d'une image qui semble 'casser' GPT-3. Le paragraphe se termine par une anecdote personnelle sur le mariage de Sam Altman et une réflexion sur la signification de la vie et l'existence humaine à travers la théorie quantique.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Contrôle des systèmes
💡Scarcité
💡Post-scarcité
💡Optimisation du contexte
💡GPT-5 et AGI
💡Audits de sécurité
💡Amélioration de la productivité
💡Robotique
💡Concurrence
💡Optimisation des performances
Highlights
The philosophical challenge of machines telling humans what to do and its implications on human purpose.
The potential societal reorganization in a post-scarcity world due to advancements in AI and technology.
The excitement around improving education and the potential for AI to transform the learning process.
The anticipation of AI's impact on productivity, particularly in the field of programming.
The strategic shift from focusing on scarcity to exploring new possibilities in a world with abundant resources.
The inevitability of technological progress, specifically in AI, and the confidence in humanity's ability to adapt and succeed.
The proposal for international regulation of high-power AI compute clusters to ensure safety.
The continuous improvement and potential of AI systems to do more than just tasks, eventually handling entire jobs.
The importance of providing more contextual information to AI systems rather than just fine-tuning behavior.
The expectation of GPT-5 to address and surpass the limitations of its predecessors, offering more advanced capabilities.
The strategic advice for startups to focus on contextual optimization and the potential of OpenAI's API improvements.
The emphasis on the importance of building with the future in mind, anticipating the advancements of AI like GPT-5.
The renewed interest in robotics as a field, with the potential integration of advanced AI models.
The competitive nature of the AI industry, driving innovation and pushing companies to improve.
The anecdote about an image that seemingly 'breaks' GPT-3, highlighting the quirks and vulnerabilities of AI models.
Sam Altman's personal life update, his recent marriage, and the human side of those shaping AI's future.
The philosophical and existential questions raised by AI, pondering our place in the universe and the possibility of communicating with a higher intelligence.
Transcripts
there's the chance of the system taking
control and for some reasons I'm I'm
less concerned about that I'm glad other
people are the one that that sort of
befuddles me is human purpose when the
machine says to me Bill go play pickle
ball I've got malar radication you're
just a slow thinker then you know it is
a philosophically confusing thing and
how you organized Society yes we're
going to improve education but education
to do what there's a lot of
psychologically difficult parts of
working on the technology but this is
the for me the most difficult cuz I also
yeah satisfaction from that and it's
like in some real sense this might be
like the last hard thing I ever do well
our minds are so organized around
scarcity scarcity of teachers and
doctors and good ideas I do wonder if a
generation that grows up without that
scarcity will find the philosophical
notion of how to organize society and
what to do maybe they'll come up
solution and I I'm afraid my mind is so
shaped around scarcity I I even to have
a hard time thinking of it if we can get
into this world of post scarcity we will
find new things to do they'll feel very
different but I think the only way out
is through we just have to go do this
thing it's going to happen this is like
now an Unstoppable technological course
the value is too great and I'm pretty
confident very confident we'll make it
work but it does feel like it's going to
all be so different yeah I think if it
comes across as asking for a Slowdown
that'll be really hard if it instead
says okay do what you want but any
compute cluster above a certain
extremely high power threshold and given
the cost here we're talking maybe five
in the world something like that any
cluster like that has got to submit to
the equivalent of international weapons
inspectors and the model there has to be
made available for safety audit pass
some tests during training and before
deployment that feels possible to me I
wasn't that sure before but I did a big
trip around the world this year talked
to heads of state in many of the
countries that would need to participate
in this and there was like almost
Universal support for it right now I
guess the we're looking a lot of
productivity improvement from AI which
you know that's overwhelmingly a very
good thing which areas are you most
excited about yeah so first of all I
always think it's worth remembering that
we're just sort of on this long
continuous curve um so like right now we
have an we have ai systems that can do
tasks they certainly can't do jobs but
they can do tasks and there's
productivity gain there eventually
they'll be able to do more things that
we think of like a job today um and
we'll of course find new jobs and better
jobs and I totally believe that if you
give people way more powerful tools it's
not just they can work a little faster
they can do qualitatively different
things and so you know right now maybe
we can speed up a programmer 3x it's
about what we see I mean that's one of
the categories that we're most excited
about it's it working super well but if
you make a programmer three times more
effective it's not just that they can
write they can do three times more stuff
it's that they can at that higher level
of abstraction using more of their brain
power they can now think of totally
different things and it's like you know
going from Punch Cards higher level
languages didn't just let us program a
little faster and let us do these
qualitatively new things but I think
it's worth always putting in context of
this technology that at least for the
next five or 10 years will be on very
steep Improvement curve um these are the
stupidest the models will ever be but
coding is probably the area the single
area from a productivity gain we're most
excited about today Healthcare and
education are two things that are coming
up that curve that we're very excited
about too so how do you see robotics
super excited for that we started robots
too early um and so we had to put that
project on on hold it was hard for the
wrong reasons it wasn't helping us make
progress with the difficult parts of the
ml research and you know we were like
dealing with bad simulators and breaking
tendons and things like that and also we
realized more and more over time that
what we really first needed was
Intelligence and cognition and then we
could figure out how to adapt it to
physicality and it was easier to start
with that with the way we've built these
language models but we have always
planned to come back to it we've started
investing a little bit in robotics
companies I think on the physical
Hardware side there's finally for the
first time that I've ever seen really
exciting new platforms being built there
and at some point we will be able to use
our models as you were saying with their
language understanding and future video
understanding to say all right like
let's do amazing things with a with a
robot and what about the competition is
that kind of a fun thing that you know
many people are working on this all at
once it's you know both like annoying
and motivating and fun I'm sure you felt
similarly but it does push us to be
better and do faster and we're very
confident in our approach we have like a
lot of people that I think are like
skating to where the puck was and we're
going to where the puck is going and
feels all right Bill Gates interviews
Sam Alman on Bill's podcast called
unconfuse me which was apparently on
YouTube this whole time it's pretty
interesting it's pretty General they
don't go too deep into anything but it
is an interesting thing to watch those
two kind of discuss where they think AGI
AI where the world is going and how AI
will affected but one thing that really
caught my attention didn't happen at
that interview but it sounds like it was
happening while that interview was being
released so this is kickoff for YC Y
combinator where they get a lot of the
founders of these startups it sounds
like it took place at opening ice
headquarters in San Francisco Sam Alman
was there now for the life of me I can't
find any video of this I can barely find
any images but in his sort of initial
speech to the new Founders to these Tech
Founders that are all building their own
companies samman suggested people build
with the mindset that gpc5 and AGI will
be achieved relatively soon that most
GPT 4 limitations will get fixed in GPT
5 here are some key takeaways one
startups need contextual optimization
more than Behavior optimization
providing more information via rag Etc
can be more beneficial than fine-tuning
two openai API will continue to be
faster more reliable and cheaper however
there will always be a balance between
performance and cost for example iPhone
will keep its one one and a half day
battery life to optimize for performance
even though Battery Technology has
improved significantly and three it's
not advisable to build companies that
Focus primarily on addressing current
GPT 4 limitations most limitations will
get partially SL entirely fixed in GPT 5
this was published in the standard a few
days earlier Chad GPT 5 release date
what we know about Open the Eyes next
chatbot in recent months hype has been
building around a new and more powerful
version of the tech that underpins Chad
GPT the language model that will be
dubbed at GPT 5 Altman allegedly spoke
about gbt 5 and gbt 6 during a talk at
his former Venture Capital firm Y
combinator at the alumni reunion in
September according to two people who
attended the event he said that both the
AI models were in the bag there's not
too many more details about one it's
going to be available so we'll see are
we going to see GPT 4.5 are we going to
see GPT 5 we have yet to see in other
news there's this apparently someone
found the Kryptonite to chbt apparently
if you upload this this image to Chad
GPT and ask it what do you see or
something to that effect it just breaks
why who knows a lot of people reporting
being able to break Chad gbt with that
with that image I don't know why in
other news Sam Alman got married but yes
it's true Sam Alman did say AI do like I
do a I do I don't know it's really late
right now either way congratulations to
him that's it for me for today here's
Andre karpathy explaining the meaning of
life in it is really interesting to
think about like what the puzzle of the
universe is did the creator of the
universe uh give us a message like for
example in the book contact UM Carl Sean
uh there's a message for human for any
civilization in the digits in the
expansion of Pi in base 11 eventually
which is kind of interesting thought uh
maybe maybe we're supposed to be giving
a message to our creator maybe we're
supposed to somehow create some kind of
a quantum mechanical system that alerts
them to our intelligent presence here
because if you think about it from their
perspective it's just s quantum field
Theory massive like silure tonaton like
thing and like how do you even notice
that we exist you might not even be able
to pick us up in that simulation and so
how do you uh how do you prove that you
exist that you're intelligent and that
you're part of the universe
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