Why Israel is an Overrated Ally

Summary

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro challenges the notion of a perpetually special U.S.-Israel relationship, tracing its origins to Cold War alliances and U.S. energy dependency. He argues that with the fall of the Soviet Union and U.S. energy self-sufficiency, the strategic rationale for this alliance has diminished. Shapiro also critiques the Abraham Accords, suggesting they may be shortsighted in balancing regional power dynamics, and posits Turkey as the emerging dominant regional power, with Iran's economic and political challenges hindering its influence.

Takeaways

• 😐 The U.S.-Israeli relationship is not as eternally special as some believe; it was forged during the Cold War and has evolved over time.
• 🇫🇷 France, not the U.S., was Israel's primary ally post-1948, providing crucial nuclear technology and strategic support.
• 🕊 The U.S.'s stance against the Suez Canal crisis under Eisenhower's administration marked a shift in international relations with Israel.
• 🔨 The U.S.-Israeli alliance solidified during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars, serving as a counterbalance to Soviet-aligned Arab nations.
• 🏗️ The fall of the Soviet Union and the U.S. becoming energy self-sufficient have diminished the strategic rationale for the U.S.-Israeli alliance.
• 🤝 Despite geopolitical shifts, the U.S. still seeks regional stability in the Middle East, leveraging alliances to shape foreign policy.
• 💣 The U.S.'s invasion of Iraq and subsequent destabilization has inadvertently strengthened Iran's regional influence.
• 📊 The Abraham Accords aim to create a balance of power in the Middle East, uniting Israel with Sunni Arab states against Iran and Turkey.
• 🚀 Turkey is emerging as a dominant regional power, expanding its economic and military influence while Iran faces economic and political challenges.
• 🔄 The U.S. and Israel must pragmatically reassess their relationship and strategic interests in a changing geopolitical landscape.
• 🌍 The long-term balance of power in the Middle East may ultimately be between Turkey and Iran, with other regional actors playing significant roles.

Q & A

What is the current status of the relationship between the United States and Israel according to the geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro?

Jacob Shapiro suggests that the relationship between the United States and Israel is no longer a key strategic partnership. He argues that the 'special relationship' is not eternal and has been shaped by historical events and geopolitical interests that have evolved over time.

Who was Israel's top ally at the time of its formation in 1948?

At the time of Israel's formation in 1948, France, not the United States, was its top ally. France provided significant support, including nuclear technology, which contributed to Israel's current capabilities.

How did the Suez Crisis impact the relationship between Israel, France, and the United States?

The Suez Crisis saw France and Britain conspiring with Israel to take over the Suez Canal. However, the Eisenhower Administration intervened, telling Israel to withdraw and reprimanding Britain and France, which marked a shift in international relations.

What major geopolitical event marked the beginning of a strong US-Israel relationship?

The strong US-Israel relationship was forged during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars. These conflicts solidified the US as a key ally for Israel in the region.

How did the fall of the Soviet Union affect the strategic logic of the US-Israel relationship?

The fall of the Soviet Union significantly impacted the strategic logic of the US-Israel relationship. With the end of the Cold War, the rationale for the alliance weakened, as the Soviet threat that had aligned the US and Israel was no longer present.

What is the current state of US energy dependence on the Middle East?

The United States is no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil. With the rise of shale gas and other energy sources, the US has become self-sufficient and can even support Europe's energy needs, reducing its strategic interest in the Middle East.

What does Jacob Shapiro believe the United States is receiving from its relationship with Israel currently?

Shapiro argues that the United States is not receiving significant benefits from its relationship with Israel in terms of existential national security threats. He suggests that Israel is not providing much in return for the support it receives from the US.

What historical event is often cited as a turning point for the balance of power in the Middle East?

The invasion of Iraq by the United States and the subsequent destabilization of the country is often cited as a turning point. It removed a key counterbalance to Iran, allowing Iran to become a more disruptive power in the region.

What is the geopolitical significance of the Abraham Accords according to the script?

The Abraham Accords are seen as an attempt to create a balance of power in the Middle East by forming an alliance between Israel and Sunni Arab states, which could potentially push back against Iran and Turkey's influence in the region.

What does Shapiro believe is the main issue with the current approach to the Middle East by the United States?

Shapiro believes that the United States has made a mistake by isolating Iran and not recognizing the potential for pragmatic cooperation. He suggests that the US should avoid cutting the knees out from under powers that are supposed to balance each other in the region.

How does the script describe the current situation with Iran's economy and its geopolitical standing?

The script describes Iran's economy as being in disarray and its politics as being isolated by Western countries. This has led to Iran being unable to effectively balance against Turkey, which is expanding its influence in the region.

What does Shapiro suggest as a potential long-term outcome for the balance of power in the Middle East?

Shapiro suggests that Turkey is likely to become the dominant power in the region, due to its growing economy and expanding influence, which could be a concern for countries like the United States and Israel.

Outlines

00:00

🏛️ Shift in US-Israel Strategic Alliance

The first paragraph discusses the evolving relationship between the United States and Israel, arguing that Israel is no longer a key strategic partner for the US. Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro asserts that the 'special relationship' is not eternal and points to historical evidence that France, not the US, was Israel's primary ally until the 1960s. The US-Israel alliance was significantly forged during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars and the Cold War. However, with the fall of the Soviet Union and the US becoming energy self-sufficient, the strategic rationale for the alliance has diminished. Despite this, the US continues to support Israel, leading to political complications within the US administration. The paragraph suggests that the US's strategic interests now lie elsewhere, particularly in Asia.

05:01

🛣️ The Suez Crisis and Middle Eastern Power Dynamics

The second paragraph delves into the historical context of the Suez Crisis, highlighting the strategic interests of France and Britain in maintaining control over the Suez Canal to secure Middle Eastern oil supplies. The paragraph explains how the crisis led to a temporary alliance between Israel, France, and Britain, which was ultimately opposed by the Eisenhower administration. It also discusses the survival of Israel in 1948 due to a combination of Arab disunity, Israel's advantageous military strategy, and covert weapon supply from Czechoslovakia via the Soviet Union. The speaker warns against the assumption that current relationships have always been the same, emphasizing the changing nature of geopolitical alliances.

10:03

🌐 Complex Geopolitical Landscape of the Middle East

The third paragraph examines the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, focusing on the shifting power dynamics and the influence of external forces. It criticizes the European-drawn borders that have led to current conflicts and discusses the logic behind the Abraham Accords, which aimed to create a balance of power against Iran and Turkey by uniting Israel with Sunni Arab states. The speaker argues that this approach is flawed due to the internal divisions within the Sunni Arab world and the historical rivalry between powers based in present-day Turkey and Iran. The paragraph suggests that the long-term balance of power in the region will likely be between Turkey and Iran, with other regional actors playing significant roles.

15:05

📊 Economic and Political Shifts in Middle Eastern Power Struggle

The final paragraph discusses the economic and political shifts in the Middle East, particularly the rise of Turkey and the challenges faced by Iran due to Western isolation. It argues that isolating Iran has been counterproductive, leading Iran to seek alliances with China and Russia. The speaker suggests that Turkey is currently winning the regional power struggle, expanding its influence in Africa and the Balkans, and becoming an economic powerhouse. The paragraph also touches on the potential internal struggles within Iran due to leadership changes and the need for a pragmatic approach to dealing with Iran, recognizing shared interests such as combating radical Sunni Islamic terrorists.

Keywords

💡Ally

An ally refers to a state or individual that is associated with another in a relationship that is beneficial to both parties, often in military or diplomatic contexts. In the video's theme, the term is used to discuss the shifting relationships between the United States and Israel, and how these alliances have changed over time. For example, the script mentions that Israel was once a useful ally to the United States in various military campaigns.

💡Strategic Partner

A strategic partner is a country or entity that shares common goals and interests, particularly in terms of long-term planning and mutual benefit. The script discusses the evolution of the relationship between the U.S. and Israel, suggesting that Israel is no longer considered a key strategic partner in the current geopolitical landscape.

💡Cold War

The Cold War refers to the period of political and military tension between the Western Bloc, led by the United States, and the Eastern Bloc, led by the Soviet Union, from the end of World War II until the early 1990s. The script uses this term to highlight the historical context in which the U.S.-Israel relationship was forged and how it was influenced by the geopolitical dynamics of that era.

💡Nuclear Technology

Nuclear technology encompasses the scientific and engineering knowledge and techniques related to the application of nuclear reactions. In the script, it is mentioned that France provided nuclear technology to Israel, which is a significant aspect of their historical alliance and Israel's defense capabilities.

💡Suez Canal Crisis

The Suez Canal Crisis, also known as the Tripartite Aggression due to the involvement of Britain, France, and Israel, was a military conflict in 1956. The script refers to this event to illustrate the complex alliances and geopolitical strategies of the time, particularly the actions of France and Britain in conjunction with Israel.

💡Energy Dependence

Energy dependence describes a situation where a country relies heavily on external sources for its energy needs. The script discusses how U.S. energy dependence on Middle Eastern oil was a significant factor in its strategic interests in the region, which has since changed due to the U.S. becoming self-sufficient in energy production.

💡Shale Revolution

The shale revolution refers to the technological advancements and increased extraction of shale gas and oil, which has transformed global energy markets. The script mentions this revolution as a key factor in reducing U.S. dependence on Middle Eastern oil and altering its strategic interests.

💡Balancing Power

Balancing power is a concept in international relations where states form alliances to counterbalance the power of a dominant state or group of states. The script uses this concept to discuss the historical and current efforts to maintain stability in the Middle East, particularly the role of Israel in balancing against Arab powers and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

💡Abraham Accords

The Abraham Accords are a series of peace agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, marking a significant shift in regional diplomacy. The script critiques the Accords, suggesting they may not be the optimal strategy for maintaining balance in the Middle East and could be shortsighted.

💡Geopolitical Analyst

A geopolitical analyst is an expert who studies and interprets the effects of geography, politics, and social processes on international relations. Jacob Shapiro, mentioned in the script, is an example of such an analyst who provides insights into the changing dynamics of the U.S.-Israel relationship and the broader geopolitical context.

💡Iran Nuclear Deal

The Iran Nuclear Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is an agreement aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program. The script discusses the implications of the U.S. withdrawing from this deal and the broader consequences for regional stability and Iran's position in the Middle East.

Highlights

Israel was not the United States' top ally during its formation in 1948; France played a more significant role.

Israel's possession of nuclear weapons is attributed to French provision of nuclear technology in the 1950s and 1960s.

The Suez Crisis in 1956 showcased the strategic alliance between France, Britain, and Israel, which was opposed by Eisenhower's administration.

The US-Israel relationship solidified during the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars due to the Cold War dynamics.

The fall of the Soviet Union diminished the strategic rationale for the US-Israel alliance.

US energy self-sufficiency, especially after the 2008 shale revolution, reduced its strategic interest in the Middle East.

The United States can now support Europe's energy needs, reducing its reliance on Middle Eastern oil.

Israel's current strategic value to the US is questioned, with the relationship being more of a burden than a benefit.

The geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro suggests that the US-Israel relationship is not eternal and is subject to change.

The Abraham Accords are viewed as an attempt to create a balance of power in the Middle East, but this approach may be flawed.

The destruction of the Iraqi state by the US invasion has allowed Iran to become a more disruptive regional power.

The complexity of the Middle East involves multiple ethnic and religious factions, not just national boundaries.

The European colonial history is blamed for the current geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

The idea of balancing power between Turkey, Iran, and an Arab-Israeli block is not straightforward due to internal divisions.

Turkey's economic and political rise is contrasted with Iran's economic and political challenges.

Isolating Iran has inadvertently allowed Turkey to become the dominant regional power.

The US and Israel need to reassess their strategic interests and relationships in the Middle East.

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is dynamic and requires a nuanced approach to alliances and balance of power.

Transcripts

Israel was a useful Ally to the United

States in its invasion of Afghanistan

toppling of Saddam Hussein and the cold

war in the present they are not a key

strategic partner that's a provocative

position but one that geopolitical

analyst Jacob Shapiro feels pretty

confident in it's surprising to me that

it's provocative because of how

self-evident it is to me as an analyst

but fine let let's provoke if people

think that that relationship is still

some kind of special relationship that

is supposed to be Eternal it's not and I

would just point out some basic history

here if you go back to the formation of

the state of Israel in 1948 the United

States was not Israel's top Ally at the

time uh it was France and from 1948

until roughly 1967 France in some ways

is Israel's most important strategic

Ally the reason that uh Israel has

nuclear weapons is because the French

gave them nuclear technology probably in

the 50s and 60s the Sinai campaign where

the French and the British conspire with

with Israel to take over the Suz Canal

cuz Nasser is rising in Egypt

um it's Dwight Eisenhower's

Administration that comes in and says

Israel go home and slaps Britain and

France on the wrist the Israel us

relationship is forged for real in ' 67

and 73 those two big Israeli Arab Wars

and then beyond and it's really a cold

war relationship because you do have the

rise of Arab nationalism in places like

Egypt and Syria and all these places

align with the Soviet Union and so the

US counter response to that is to have

alliances with Israel to have an

alliance with turkey that's why turkey

is in NATO and then also Iran was part

of that Alliance Network that of course

blew up in 79 and the way that the

United States managed the Iranian

Alliance is part of the reason that the

Irani that the Islamic revolution

happened there we can go down that road

if you want to talk about it but

basically like the the the the Israel us

relationship it was that cold war

relationship it was Israel was

incredibly useful as a balancing Force

against these Arab powers that aligned

themselves with the Soviet Union um the

day the Soviet Union Falls the Strategic

logic of the US Israel relationship

takes a major hit it doesn't go away

completely because the US still has

major dependencies on the region

especially on Saudi Arabia for oil so

the more you can build a stable balance

of power and have countries that are

that you are aligned with in the region

so that you can shape foreign policy in

the region even after the Soviet Menace

has gone away is good but then you get

the 2008 shell Revolution and so now

we're no longer talking about the US

Israel relationship we're also talking

about the United States doesn't have to

import a barrel of oil from the Middle

East if it doesn't want to it can if it

wants to make the Saudis happy or if it

wants to make the Emirates happy but

because of Shay like the United States

is completely self-sufficient and it can

go to other markets if it wants to fill

in the gaps there the United States has

so much energy that it can support

Europe when Russia has invaded Ukraine

and Europe has gotten cut off from

natural gas so we're just pumping out LG

exports and literally keeping the lights

on in Europe while Energy prices in the

US are still relatively to everybody

else in the world comparably low all of

which is to say the United States

doesn't really have a strategic interest

in the Middle East and certainly that

relationship with Israel what is the

United States getting out of that

relationship with Israel right now what

existential National Security threats is

Israel actually providing the United

States going forward not a whole heck of

a lot and not only that Israel is sort

of spitting in the United States's face

expecting that the United States is

going to be there for them no matter

what and yet Netanyahu comes out and

claims that Biden's not sending him the

weapons that he needs even though Biden

has sent him most of the weap that he

needs and has you know uh has

experienced significant political hurt

because he's been very pro- Israel while

his party has sort of been a little bit

more on the fence um so I'm happy to

dive into any of that history if you

want but the really really broad Strokes

here is that you know the the US Israel

relationship is not some special

relationship it's not like they've been

buos and Buddies the entire time that

Israel has existed it was born of the

combination of the Cold War and of US

Energy dependence on the Middle East and

the Cold War is Over and the US is not

dependent on the middleast for energy

anymore so we've been talking about the

the pivot to to Asia since you know

Clinton was Secretary of State that's

where us strategic interest line now

there's there's inertia and there's

bureaucracy and there's all sorts of

other things that keep things going the

way that they are but if you're just

doing the cold hard geopolitical

strategic logic it's very very hard to

Divine how how Israel is that important

to the United States going forward so in

that Spirit of the the cold hard geost

strategic logic how is it so relevant to

France is that about balancing the

Mediterranean like what is the

perspective from French footing that

makes that so geopolitically significant

well not anymore but it was significant

in the 40s and 50s when France and

Britain were supporting Israel and some

of its various Endeavors because these

were declining number one declining

Empire uh number two had significant

Colonial possessions in the Middle East

that they were losing as a result of

States going independent and Rising

nationalism and things like that and

were incredibly dependent on in fact had

built their energy strategies around

access to these countries so when Kamal

Abdul Nasser is a rising force in Egypt

and is threatening to shut down the Suez

first of all the British thought the

Suez was their own they felt like they

owned it so it was already sort of an

insult to them but it was also if Egypt

can close off the Suez it can close off

all of that Middle Eastern Oil that

France and Britain had been depending on

to those markets and these were

countries that were used to being

Imperial great Powers so they weren't

going to accept that they were going to

go open up the Suz and open up the

markets and take their oil back um so

that was the reason that Britain and

France post 48 I should say it's not

like they were helping Israel during its

war of independence in 1948 but that was

the sort of strategic logic behind what

France and Britain were doing then in 48

I mean um both the United States and

Soviet Union approve the creation of

Israel at the UN so they don't stand in

the way there um but the reason that

Israel survives in 48 It's a combination

of two well I guess three things uh the

first is that the Arab armies just

couldn't communicate with each other so

if you would put all of their Force

together they they were in terms of

numbers everything else they far

outclassed the nent Israeli state but

you had Egypt and Syria and Jordan and

even some Iraq in there none of these

forces were communicating well with each

other and the jordanians were the only

ones that were really well trained the

British had trained them so you didn't

really have good training there the

second was that Israel size actually

worked in its Advantage they had really

really short interior lines so Israel

could take its best troops you know

punch the Egyptians in the mouth then

rotate the troops over to the the

Jordanian side punch them in the mouth

move back and forth whereas those Arab

armies were going across vast distances

to try and attack Israel but the third

is that the Israelis were getting Black

Market weapons from what was then

Czechoslovakia via the Soviet Union and

I I think about that often because when

you think about the Russia Ukraine war

where is Ukraine sourcing a lot of their

weapons it's still like the Czech

Republic and the slovo and the arms

merchants and all the stuff that's there

in general that's how Israel survived

too so all of which just say in 48 it's

not France it's not Britain it's not the

United States it's not the Soviet Union

It's a combination of Arab incompetence

and getting Black Market weapons from

the Soviet Union via Czechoslovakia that

allows Israel to survive so I guess it's

provocative because people think that

just because something is true now it's

always been true and we should say

Israel has every strategic interest in

making sure the United States is close

to it so Israel wants to make that

relationship as close and as sticky as

possible and as painful as possible for

the United States to end it because it

needs that security guarantors or maybe

that's part of the reason behind it but

again that if we're here in in the year

of Our Lord 2024 the Strategic logic

that bound those two countries together

is not there and that should really be a

warning signal I think for Israeli

leaders because eventually the United

States will wake up to that rip in that

maybe you know present to 5 years

forward time Horizon one of the ideas

that I've seen put forth is this idea of

balancing you know the Middle Eastern

region and they kind of being these

potential three poles and maybe the kind

of of something like the Abraham Accords

was you could put the Saudis and Israel

together you then have Iran and you

could have turkey and there you know by

by having those kind of three points of

the the triangle so to speak there

wouldn't be a singular power that

dominates the region that completely you

know maybe not monopolizes necessarily

but but but overpowers in the way that

you know China May threaten to overpower

the entire um Eastern Hemisphere or East

Asia so do you do you buy that framing

are you skeptical of that kind of being

at least what the optimal outcome is for

outside parties that just kind of would

prefer to see a region be more stable

the ironic thing here is that the United

States blew up a balance of power that

was functioning fairly well so when the

United States invaded Iraq um and

destroyed the Iraqi State and for good

reasons I have no love for Saddam

Hussein the world is a better place

probably without Saddam Hussein doing

whatever he was doing in Baghdad but

Iraq was holding Iran back so Iran

really couldn't project influence out to

the med Mediterranean because Iraq was

its Nemesis and was blocking it from

doing all of those things so when the

United States fails in Iraq it really

opens the door for Iran to become a much

more disruptive power in the Middle East

and in some ways everything the United

States has done in the region since

George Bush had the mission accomplished

Banner on the aircraft carrier is about

trying to fix that they're trying to put

Humpty Dumpty back together and they're

struggling because you can't cuz Iran is

out and unless you build a solid Iraqi

state to block them that is not going to

be friendly with them it's not going to

work and Iraq is majority Shiite so

there's going to be some relationship um

I don't think it's three polls when I

think about the Middle East there's

really four countries you have to think

about you've already named three of them

so turkey Saudi Arabia Iran Egypt is the

other big one Egypt has geopolitical

challenges that we can talk about but

those are sort of the four n National

polls um but I think it's also difficult

to think in terms of Nations here in

terms of the power centers because

there's Shiite Persians and there's

Shiite Arabs and there's Sunni Arabs and

then there's Turk and then there's Kurds

that are sitting in there they don't

have a state for themselves you start

you know bopping around it's actually a

lot more complex than the national

landscape would make you think and that

again if you want to blame anyone for

what's going on in Israel Palestine in

Iran in any of these places blame the

Europeans they're the ones who drew

these ridiculous you know border lines

that have nothing to do with reality and

like now we're dealing with the

consequences of those other sorts of

things I think the logic behind the

Abraham Accords was Iran is a problem

turkey is a problem our best balancer

against that is a combination of Israeli

technology and capital with Sunni Arabs

so not just with the Saudis but with

Sunni Arabs in general so that's the

population and Military resources of

Egypt that's Jordan both of which have

peace treaties with Israel brokered by

the United States let's add in that Gulf

money so the gulf countries don't have

really armies of their own that you

would respect in a battle but they do

have tons of money new equipment they've

been buying weapons for decades you know

put that together now we have an Arab

Israeli block that is going to push back

against Iran it's going to push back

against Turkey um that I think is the

logic behind it I thought at the time

that it was a mistake and I still think

it's a mistake because I think those are

the two I think Sunni Arab as a category

has its own internal divisions you're

never going to be able to unite them and

keep them United and you're certainly

not going to be able to keep them United

with the Israelis like just look at

what's happening in Gaza and the

problems that that's causing between

Sunni Arab states and Israel in general

if you look back over history time and

time again it's Powers based around what

is today present day Istanbul and Powers

based around ancient Persia those are

the big powers in the Middle East and

usually it's sort of a battle between

those two zones for who gets to be the

person on top and maybe there's the

balance of power right there maybe it's

turkey versus Iran um is the long-term

balance that we're thinking about in

general um and the problem is that

between turkey and Iran right now you

have this sandwich of you know Isis

terrorists and some you know sclerotic

old authoritarian States and in Israel

that's moving in the wrong direction and

Kurds who don't have a state like

there's all this stuff in between them

and maybe those Powers will use um all

of those different ponds on the chess

boort against each other but I think in

the long run it's going to be turkey and

Iran um and I think the problem with the

Abraham Accords because remember the

Abraham Accords is also coupled with the

end of the Iranian nuclear deal and that

I think is the problem you're not going

to contain Iran you cannot go back and

create some kind of Bull workk against

Iran you destroyed it when you destroyed

the Saddam Hussein regime accept it and

accept that you are going to have to

deal with Iran on something of a

pragmatic basis and also accept that

there are some things that the United

States has in common with Iran you know

what is an existential threat for Iran

radical Sunni Islamic terrorists that is

a a direct threat to the future of Iran

you know who doesn't like radical Sunni

Islamic terrorists everybody in the west

one of the reasons Isis fell when it did

was because for a year or two there the

west and Iran were like all right like

let's let's work together to get rid of

Isis because these guys are the real bad

guys so for me the abrahamic cords were

kind of shortsighted and it was betting

on the wrong horses both in terms of

who's going to be able to block these

different powers and who are the main

powers in general if you you were to

think about those two you talk about

turkey and Iran balancing each other is

there one that you would bet is there

one that you think has better footing

and more of the pieces in place to win

the region in that context absolutely

turkey is

winning and turkey is winning in part

because led by the United States the

West has decided that Iran is the bigger

threat and has been isolating Iran's

economy and grinding Iran Iran's economy

to its knees um go back and look at a

chart of GDP of Turkey and Iran starting

roughly in the 1980s Iran is a much

bigger economy back then and it's

basically inverted the last 30 years so

now turkey is a much bigger economy so

much so that turkey is you know taking

market share from European car makers

making all sorts of things that you need

I i' had order a replacement freezer a

year or two ago it took a while to get

to me because the chips that were put in

the freezer were being made in Turkey

not in China anymore like turkeyy is

coming in a meaningful way turkey's also

building military bases throughout the

of Africa expanding into the Balkans

some of their old stomping grounds like

turkey is a rising power but because

they're in NATO and because they have

these old relationships uh nobody really

gives turkey that much of a problem

whereas Iran which is the natural

Balancing Act to Turkey and the region

can't balance it because its economy is

terrible its politics is in disarray and

it's isolated by all of these different

Western Country so if you're thinking

for for the long term both if you're

Israel or if you're the West you have to

think about how do

you because you don't want to like let

this particular regime in Iran just come

in from the cold like again like it's a

thuggish Theocratic authoritarian state

it does all sorts of Nefarious and

malign things throughout the region and

throughout the world the fear of nuclear

proliferation all of that is completely

legitimate but the exact wrong thing to

do is to isolate them into a corner so

they want to Ally with China and Russia

meanwhile turkey is slowly expanding out

into the Middle East and I do think you

know we we've seen this with the the

supreme leader in Iran is ailing uh and

I think there's probably some internal

fighting that's going to happen in Iran

around the leadership transition even

like the fact that Iran was open to the

Iran nuclear deal told you that the

economy was so bad that they were

willing to do some things to try and

engage with the West again so it's a Del

it's a delicate Balancing Act but I

would say here today if you extrapolate

from current trends turkey is going to

be the dominant power in the region and

for countries like the United States or

even like Israel that's probably not a

good thing what you want is a balancing

and the lesson to learn from Iraq is

don't cut the knees out from underneath

the powers in the regions that are

supposed to balance against each other

just because you don't like the regimes

you work with plenty of regimes you

don't like you like the Saudi regime

nobody likes the Saudi regime so figure

out how to work with some of these

countries and accept that your

existential interests just aren't there

anymore so it doesn't really matter what

the ideology is your interests are

ultimately going to determine what is

good policy