SSC CPO 2024 Tier-1 Analysis| Expected cutoff by Shubham Sir (RBE)

Summary

This video discusses the SSC CPO 2024 exam, conducted in nine shifts with potential score normalization. It analyzes expected safe scores, cut-offs, and factors influencing them, including attendance and vacancy trends. The speaker provides insights into shifts' difficulty levels and predicts cut-offs for various categories, emphasizing the importance of physical preparation regardless of score estimates. The video also surveys aspirants' backgrounds and their use of a specific paid course, concluding with encouragement to prepare for the physical test and future opportunities.

Takeaways

• 📅 The SSC CPO 2024 Year One exam was conducted across three days (27th, 28th, and 29th June) with three shifts each day, totaling nine shifts.
• 📝 Normalization is a process applied to the exam scores when it is conducted in multiple shifts to ensure fairness.
• 🔍 The video discusses the expected safe scores for different categories and genders after normalization, providing insights into potential score increases.
• 📊 A survey was conducted with nearly 3000 aspirants, with varying participation across categories and genders, affecting the analysis of results.
• 📉 The speaker analyzed the previous year's (2023) Tier One CPO cut-offs and compared predicted and actual scores to demonstrate accuracy.
• 📈 Factors such as attendance, form filling, and qualification ratios are considered to predict cut-offs, with the acknowledgment that these are subject to change.
• 📚 The 2024 CPO exam has 4187 vacancies, with a significant number of candidates filling the form and appearing for the exam.
• 🔑 The difficulty level of the exam shifts varied, with some shifts being harder than others, affecting the expected scores and cut-offs.
• 📈 The expected increase in marks due to normalization is discussed, with examples provided on how it might affect individual scores.
• 🎯 The speaker provides an estimated safe score range for each shift and category, advising aspirants to prepare for the physical test regardless of their current score.
• 👥 A small section of the aspirants are from the female category, making it difficult to predict their cut-offs accurately, but an attempt is made based on available data.

Q & A

When was the SSC CPO 2024 Year One exam conducted?

The SSC CPO 2024 Year One exam was conducted on 27th, 28th, and 29th June.

How many shifts was the SSC CPO 2024 exam conducted in each day?

The exam was conducted in three shifts each day.

What is normalization in the context of the SSC CPO exam?

Normalization is a process that may occur when exams are conducted in multiple shifts to adjust for the difficulty level of different shifts, ensuring fairness in scoring.

What factors can affect the expected safe score in the SSC CPO exam after normalization?

Factors affecting the expected safe score include the number of people who appeared in the exam, the difficulty level of each shift, and the number of candidates qualifying for the vacancies.

What was the total number of aspirants who participated in the survey mentioned in the script?

Nearly 3000 aspirants participated in the survey.

How many vacancies were there for the SSC CPO 2024 exam?

There were 4187 vacancies for the SSC CPO 2024 exam.

What was the predicted cut off for the unreserved category in the SSC CPO Tier 1 exam 2023, and how did it compare to the actual cut off?

The predicted cut off for the unreserved category in 2023 was 137, and the actual cut off was two marks higher at 139.

What is the importance of watching the entire video according to the script?

Watching the entire video is important to understand the analysis of the exam, including the hard and easy shifts, the expected increase in marks after normalization, and the predicted cut off.

What is the advice given for candidates who score less than the predicted cut off?

The advice is that candidates should still prepare for the physical test as there is a possibility that the actual cut off may be lower than predicted, and preparation now will benefit them in future attempts.

What is the source of the test papers and analysis videos mentioned in the script?

The test papers and analysis videos are available on RB's telegram channel and YouTube.

How many female candidates participated in the survey according to the script?

Around 10 female candidates participated in the survey.

What is the expected increase in marks after normalization for a candidate who scored 130 in shift one on 27th June?

The expected increase in marks after normalization for a candidate who scored 130 could be around 35, making it 133.5.

Outlines

00:00

📝 SSC CPO 2024 Exam Analysis and Expected Safe Scores

The speaker begins by discussing the SSC CPO 2024 Year One exam, which took place over three days with three shifts each day, totaling nine shifts. They mention the concept of normalization in exams conducted in multiple shifts and its impact on scores. The speaker intends to analyze the expected safe score category-wise and gender-wise, and to discuss the safe score based on raw scores and expected cut-offs after normalization. They also touch on the survey of nearly 3000 aspirants, highlighting the participation of different categories and genders, with a note on the limited female data. The speaker references the previous year's cut-off analysis and the importance of watching the entire video for a comprehensive understanding.

05:05

📊 Detailed Breakdown of Shifts and Expected Score Changes

This paragraph delves into the difficulty levels of the exam shifts, identifying the hardest and easiest shifts for each subject. The speaker provides insights into the expected increase in scores due to normalization, giving examples of how a candidate's score might change. They emphasize the variability of normalization effects based on individual scores and the overall performance of the shift. The speaker also discusses the factors that can influence cut-offs, such as attendance and the number of candidates qualifying for vacancies, and provides data on the number of vacancies and candidates for the current year's CPO exam.

10:05

🎯 Estimating Cut-offs and Preparing for Physical Tests

The speaker presents their analysis of the expected cut-offs for different categories and shifts, providing specific score ranges that could potentially clear the cut-off. They advise candidates not to make hasty decisions about preparing for the physical tests based solely on these estimates, as there are many variables at play. The speaker encourages candidates to prepare for the physical tests regardless of their score, as the cut-offs can change due to various factors such as vacancy numbers and candidate attendance. They also discuss the importance of preparation for future attempts and the potential for score increases or decreases after normalization.

15:07

🚀 Final Thoughts and Encouragement for Aspirants

In the final paragraph, the speaker addresses the uncertainty in predicting cut-offs, especially for female candidates due to limited data. They provide their best estimates for the cut-offs and safe scores for different shifts and emphasize the importance of starting to prepare for the Tier 2 exams. The speaker also mentions a survey about the use of their paid courses and shares the performance data of those candidates. They conclude by encouraging all aspirants to continue their preparation, offering free resources and support for their journey, and end with a farewell message.

Keywords

💡SSC CPO

SSC CPO refers to the Staff Selection Commission - Central Police Organization exam in India. It is a competitive examination for recruitment into various posts in the Indian police services. The video discusses the 2024 exam, its conduction, and expected outcomes, making it central to the video's theme of examination analysis and score prediction.

💡Normalization

Normalization in the context of competitive exams is a process used to equate scores across different test forms or sessions to ensure fairness. The script discusses how normalization might affect the expected safe scores, emphasizing its importance in understanding potential score adjustments post-examination.

💡Safe Score

A 'safe score' is the minimum number of marks a candidate is expected to secure to have a good chance of qualifying or being selected in a competitive exam. The video script explores the concept by discussing how normalization could potentially shift the safe score category-wise and gender-wise.

💡Cut Off

The 'cut off' refers to the minimum qualifying marks or score set for a candidate to proceed to the next stage of the selection process. The video script delves into predicting the cut off after normalization and comparing predicted and actual cut offs from previous years.

💡Shifts

In the context of the SSC CPO exam, 'shifts' refer to the different time slots in which the examination is conducted. The script mentions that the exam was conducted in nine shifts and discusses the difficulty level and expected score increase in normalization for different shifts.

💡Gender-wise

The term 'gender-wise' categorizes data or analysis based on gender. The script notes the difficulty in analyzing female candidates' data due to limited participation and provides insights based on available information.

💡Category-wise

Similar to 'gender-wise,' 'category-wise' refers to the analysis of data or scores based on different social categories such as unreserved, OBC, EWS, SC, and ST. The video script uses this term to discuss the expected safe scores and cut offs for different social categories.

💡Tier One

Tier One in the context of the SSC CPO exam refers to the preliminary stage of the selection process. The script mentions analyzing the cut off of Tier One in 2023 and predicts the cut off for 2024, highlighting its significance in the selection process.

💡Vacancies

The term 'vacancies' refers to the number of available positions for recruitment. The script discusses the number of vacancies for the SSC CPO 2024, emphasizing the importance of understanding the vacancies in relation to the expected competition and cut off.

💡Physical and Medical

The 'physical and medical' stage is a part of the selection process where candidates must pass physical fitness tests and medical examinations. The script mentions this as the next stage after Tier One, indicating its importance in the overall recruitment process.

💡Roe Score

The 'roe score' is a raw or unadjusted score that a candidate receives in an exam before any normalization or adjustments are made. The script uses this term to discuss how a candidate's score might change after normalization and in relation to the expected cut off.

Highlights

SSC CPO 2024 exam was conducted in nine shifts from 27th to 29th June.

Normalization is applied when exams are conducted in multiple shifts.

Video discusses expected safe scores post-normalization, categorized by gender and category.

Analysis of safe score based on raw score and expected cut off after normalization.

Approximately 3000 aspirants participated in the survey for the exam analysis.

Gender-wise data is limited, making it difficult to analyze, especially for female candidates.

Comparison of predicted and actual cut off for CPO Tier 1 in 2023.

Factors affecting cut off include attendance, form filling, and qualification for vacancies.

SSC CPO 2024 has 4187 vacancies, with a significant number for male candidates.

Attendance percentage may vary, affecting the final cut off.

Normalization can increase or decrease scores based on the shift's difficulty.

Expected increase in marks after normalization for different shifts.

Detailed analysis of the hardest and easiest shifts for each subject.

Approximate marks increase in normalization for candidates with different raw scores.

Survey data on aspirants' scores and the expected number of candidates clearing Tier One.

Internal factors in vacancy allocation and their impact on candidate selection.

Estimated cut off for female candidates in different categories.

Advice for candidates on preparing for physical tests regardless of their score.

Importance of considering various factors that could influence the final cut off.

Data on RB's paid course users and their performance in the Tier One exam.

Encouragement for aspirants to continue preparation and utilize available resources.

Transcripts

Hello everyone, I hope you all are healthy. SSC CPO 2024 Year One

exam was conducted on 27th, 28th and 29th June. The paper

was conducted in three shifts each day. In total, the exam was conducted in nine shifts and when the exam was conducted in multiple shifts.

If it happens, then you know that normalization also happens. Today in this video I

will discuss with you whether the expected safe score can be shifted category wise

and gender wise so that you will also get an idea about how many marks can be increased

in normalization. We will also see what will be the safe score on the basis of row score and we

will also talk about what is the expected cut off after normalization.

If you watch the entire video then you will understand how I have

sorted things out. If you If you don't watch the entire video, then if you go to the end of the video,

you will see the cut off, but if you see the cut off and feel that I

have told you too much or less, then it would be better if you watch the entire video, you will understand what I said.

It is okay to analyze it properly, rest of the analysis video contains many things

like which is hard shift, which is easy shift, which way things have gone,

this time overall it is better for you, it is okay to watch the entire video.

Nearly 3000 aspirants had participated in the survey , in which if we look at the categories

, there were 177.5 aspirants from unreserved category, 42.7 aspirants from OBC category,

the data is running in this manner, not very important. If we look at gender wise, then

around 90 aspirants were male. And there were 10 females, the data of females is very less, so it

is very difficult to analyze on its basis, but like I

did last year also, I will tell you some things from my idea, you can

take decision on it as per your own. Yes, it is okay and here in total

there is equal number of candidates in all the shifts. I had analyzed the cut off of tier one of CPO in 2023.

You can see the cut off for unreserved category, OBC, EWS, SC,

ST, which I have done. You can match the predicted and actual cut off from here.

Look, it was predicted at 137. Many people had said at that time, Sir, you

have told too much, it is not possible that the CPO cut off will go this low. But

the actual cut off was two marks more than that, OBC had 133 marks, 132

marks had been predicted, EWS had predicted 134 marks, only 134 had been predicted,

here SC category had predicted 117 marks, 111 marks were less and I had predicted 109 for ST

category, the result was 109, okay, so all the cut offs

were within the written margins, rest of the effort is to remain close to the

written cut offs so that the cut offs of Nimturi are within plus or minus two. Here it

was predicted that it is next impossible to tell about the female category, then

you will see a little margin in it. If we move ahead by three to four numbers, then what are the factors affecting

the cut off? What are the things that can change our cut off? Look, we have all the data regarding normalization

, otherwise

we cannot say exactly how the subject will react to normalization, so on the basis of that, there can definitely be some change.

How many people have appeared in the attendance exam, this time the exact data has not come to us

yet. How many people had filled the form is known but the actual attendance is not known

and how many times the number of candidates will qualify for the vacancies, we

will tell by looking at the previous year trends. Exactly what SSC should keep, if there are a little

more or less candidates in it then things will change. It can change, so never

trust 100% on the cut off because there are too many variables. Okay, if everything goes as

expected, then things will remain similar, otherwise it can change. Look, here

you can see the data of 2023, how many people have filled the form. How many appeared in PR exam

and how many vacancies are there? If I talk about CPO 2024, we have very good vacancies here. There

are 4187 vacancies in which 3818 are for male and 369

are for female. Total 734 1559 candidates had filled the form and

appeared. I can't say how many, but there were a lot of expense exam centers

given at very far away places, so those who had less preparation or who did not want to take a job from CPO,

were given such mock papers, those who were serious would not have gone to give the exam.

There are expectations that if the vacancies were more then the percentage attendance may have

been somewhere between 40 to 50 and we have so many vacancies. CPO

is a good opportunity to reach the final selection and tier one is only clear.

After that you have to do the main stage which is physical and medical.

Because more and more children are leaving in it, you

can see the data from 2018 to 2023, here how many people filled the form, how many people

appeared in the exam and what was the percentage attendance, it remained between 28 and 40. I

generally vary between 28 to 40 and it is possible that this time too

the tension may be around 40, 40 or 45. Now

after removing all the consignors, I am left with approximately this many candidates in each shift.

Similar Number of Expectations participated, if I look at Reasoning then

there is not much difference in the level of all the shifts. The average marks in all the shifts are the same

and overall Reasoning shift is easy. Okay, if we look at GK then all the shifts in GK

are Maths. The average score is going on in our survey, how much

total in English, how much and what is the expected increase, how many

marks can be increased in which shift, you got a rough idea here, now

let's discuss in detail, the hardest on the basis of hardness. Which shift was for reasoning?

Shift 2 and shift 3 of 28th June were towards hard and GGS was shift 1 of 28th June. If I

go for GK then in that also you will see the data of GK

is a little wrong. Please correct it. Skipping: If I talk about Maths then our hard shift is

shift three of 29th June and the easy shift we have is shift of 27th June but there is

not much variation in easy and hard here, it is good.

The thing is fine and similarly if I talk about English then the EGS shift was our

shift of 28th June and

Hardstop. Overall the easiest shift which we had was the shift one of 28th June and

it was hard shift which is known as per the survey. There is a shift to 28th June, there

may be some variations in this, the order may be a little ahead or behind, depending on

the data, there are many other websites where on the basis of more data, you are

told exactly what things are going on. So from there you

may get a better idea, rest if I see the expected increase, then

if you are having paper in shift one on 27th June, then if your marks are 130

then there are chances that after normalization your marks will be 130. Increase by 35 and it becomes 133.5.

Ok 35 for a rough idea, there may be some changes in this, maybe

only two numbers may increase in this, maybe five of your numbers also increase, then

the variation of plus minus two is your value. Normalization is written in Chalna and it is preferred in this also. If suppose

in this particular shift only you are getting score 60 then it is not necessary that your two to

three marks will increase, it is possible that by subtracting 60 it may become 55.

If you score more , then the marks increase in normalization

. If you score less, then generally you fill less. Okay, let me tell you with a small idea.

This happens in maximum shift. Leave aside the easy and hard shift and see. If you assume,

make a proposal. Roe score of a person is 130. I am talking about a single shift.

I have taken any one fixed shift. We have normalized his score, it may be 135,

but if the same child's score here, Roe score may be 180. It is possible

that it may increase to 180. Here how much I have increased may be five.

If the number scores more then it may increase to seven here. And

if the same child's row score remains below 60 then it is possible that here Five were increasing but

it has gone far behind the average. It could be 58 57. Its

score may remain like this but the marks may decrease. Okay, so this is how things work.

You don't need to go into details. There are some shifts in which if 130 points are getting deviated,

maybe five of your numbers are getting deviated, 135 is becoming 180 points, maybe

only four of yours increase and 184 remains only, it is okay, this also happens, then it is different. There are graphs now, if

I go deeper beyond that then the session will go on for a long time, so now we are not going beyond that, we are fine,

so approximately you have come to know approximately how many marks

can be increased on average in your shift, okay, in our survey, People participated,

how many students are on the basis of roll score, like

in our survey there are 16 aspirants who have scored more than 175, there are 1089 aspirants who have scored more than 155, there are 7183 aspirants who have scored more than 130.

You can see in this way and category. You can see wise,

if I increase the number of marks filled by expected normalization, then

approximately the data will appear to you in such a way that there will be so many aspirants

in our survey. If we look at the data of 2022, then how many times the number of candidates in tier one will be there compared to the actual vacancy.

They were called in, here you will see the unrecognized category below.

Like only 3.7 times candidates were called

in female category and 4 times in male category, 20

24.8 times in EWS category, about 24 times in EWS category, it is going on like this,

you will see how many times the number of candidates qualify Tier One and overall.

Here P is 11.6, here P is 15.9, approximately 16. This is from 2022.

In 2023, SSC made some changes in which females were called total 16 times and

males were called 17 times. Okay, so approximately the data of 2023 is

the foundation . Mann, I will do my further analysis here.

You can see the overall vacancy here for the mail candidates. The total number of vacancies we have for the Delhi Police and the rest of the CIAF

together is so much and you can see the vacancies for the mail candidates

here. You are a good match, there are one or two things

you should know about the vacancies of the candidates, like there are 125 vacancies in the Delhi Police vacancies,

some of the vacancies are of ex-servicemen, some of the service vacancies are of ex-serviceman commandos

and some of the ex-servicemen means departmental candidates. If we have 100 vacancies then there will be 244

more vacancies which are actually reserved and similarly

if we look at the vacancies which are reserved in CPF, here 401 vacancies are reserved for ex-

servicemen, so these will also be less, so actually you will have the same number of vacancies left. Those

who are not already in any government job, it is okay and basically there are so many vacancies for new aspirants.

These are some internal things which should be known.

Approximately how many female candidates will qualify in Tier One. According to me,

how many male candidates will qualify. You can see here,

accordingly, I have come up with an idea and on the basis of that, I am also telling the cutoff

which was given in my survey and mapped it as to what is the expected rank and how many scores can be obtained

as per the previous year's cutoff. Looked at the trends, looked at the gaps between them,

I tried a lot of things in between the cut off, after that

I finally reach the cut off, so you can see here which according to me the cut off

seems to me. The normalized cut off of the candidates can be

if you have given the paper in unreserved one, then your 12.49 marks can also clear the cut off

and if you have given the paper in hard shift , then you have given the paper in shift two on 28th June.

Even after 121 marks, you can clear the cut off from your particular category.

Okay, in the same way, you can see the data of all the other shifts here in a good way

to see whether the safe score is being made according to you because it is

based on the row score. What is the table below, based on the score that you know now and

the final cut off after normalization can be something like this, okay

now it comes to the point, according to me these are the numbers which But your cut off

may be clear, ok but what if your marks are less than this then you

should not prepare for physical. If you think so then you would be a very stupid person because suppose the cut

off is three marks less than what I told. If the cut off is ok, then you should not only prepare yourself but

when the results will come, your physical will be conducted 10 to 15 days later, you

will be called for the physical or you will be called for the physical after 20 days. You

should not prepare for the physical in 20 days. If you get it, then the cut off is based on the idea. It is okay.

Keeping this in mind, do not take any major decision whether you want to prepare for physical

or not. It is okay to clear the cut off of tier one. If you are preparing then in tier two.

If you prepare well, you can get some job from SSC CPO,

even if these numbers are less than what I am telling you as the expected cut off, still you

should prepare for the physical, otherwise you take a decision and see that it is for you. You can decide whether CPO

or CGL is more important or how you want to plan,

just take it as an idea, if you are less than even 10 marks then it is possible

that you may clear the cut off of R1. It is possible that if you increase the vacancy

of CPO a little in the coming time, then your cut off will go down. It is possible

that if the number of candidates is slightly more than what SSC is calling, then the cut off may also go down.

It is possible that you may be from unreserved category. I am assuming that

they will call four times the number of candidates as per the vacancy, maybe they will call 10 times the number of candidates or eight times

the number of candidates, then the cut off will be reduced, so there are many factors

which are not mentioned. Which is in the hands of SSC or

the vacancies in the hands of SSC, many things can change in the hands of the department, so if you

By considering this as the framework, preparation means that if you go ahead then it is wrong. If you are getting 10 marks

less than this then you should prepare well for the physical. This time, by chance,

even if your cut off is missed by one or two marks, then next year. So if you give, then once you

have prepared well for the physical, then it will be easier for you in the next year. Okay, then you

can spend one to two hours as much as you feel in preparing for the physical. If your like

I kept a margin of 10 marks, then 10. Suppose, what are you doing, see what you are doing,

even in normalization, as I told, four numbers will increase, three numbers will increase, in one shift

it is possible that six or seven numbers may increase, if eight numbers increase, then there

can be a gap even more than that. You will have to consider all the things, so if you think that your normalized score

is like I have kept 130 from unreserved category, if your score is below 120 then

according to me your chances are very less, then it will be a miracle that you will get the tier.

The cut off of one key should be clear, rest you can apply the idea in this way. Okay, let's

move ahead. Let me talk about such female candidates. Look,

it is impossible to tell about female candidates, there is very limited data, but if you trust me and

give the data. I have analyzed whatever I felt about it and I

am telling you the things but here things can be wrong. It

is impossible to tell exactly the female expectation, especially SC/ST category,

let alone the complete predetermination

, you are here. You can see that the cut off of female candidates

is generally higher than that of male Tier One candidates and if we see, I think the cut off of unreserved category

can be around 137, OBC 126, EWS 127, SC 105 and ST

100. It can be around Rs. And here

you can give some idea about what can be the safe score shift wise. If your score

is around or more than this then definitely you should start preparing for TA 2.

Okay, I had also asked in the survey how many Esperances are there who

are RB's paid course users. If we see, out of them, about

65.5 people said that they are using RB's paid course. Okay, total 678

Esperances said yes to this. And if I look at the data of these 678 candidates,

their marks in the present Tier One exam

will be visible in this manner and if I keep in mind the expected cutoff I have mentioned,

then these Out of 678 aspirants, there are 579 aspirants who will clear the cut off of tier one.

Okay, so on RB, some children have taken individual subject courses,

some have taken complete course courses, so it depends on

what you have taken. Exactly, I also did not ask in depth, I don't know

but this is some data and out of these, the top scorers are in this manner

in which even those who score more than 170

are about four to five apprentices. This little data is expected

normalized. According to the score, I have not changed,

around five of them are more than 170. You can see here I have shown the data of top 60 candidates

who are using some paid course from RB platform

and the rest are not taking paid, so they are free. Everyone is using classes,

be it free PDF, be it analysis video, guidance video and whatever things

you get from wherever you can, keep doing your preparation from there

, all the shifts of SSC CPO 2024 are free for you. It has been put, you

can give it in the test form if you want, tomorrow there will be a video of Maths in which I will ask top 50 questions,

I had allowed up to youtube3 to give this test, apart from this,

you will get all the papers in PDF form on RB's telegram channel. But you will get the CPO

selection post, so you can see it from there also. If you want to see it in PDF form, then I

will bid farewell to you all here. Bye everyone take care, have a nice day and Jai

Hind.