Why Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon And More Are Betting Big On AI-Powered Humanoid Robots

Summary

The transcript explores the rise of AI-driven humanoid robots, which are attracting billions in investment from tech giants. These robots, like Digit and Tesla's Optimus, aim to fill labor shortages and perform dangerous or undesirable tasks. Advancements in generative AI are key to their capabilities, and startups are racing to develop versatile, safe, and affordable humanoids for various industries. However, challenges remain, including safety, cost, and regulatory issues, as the industry is likened to a new space race with significant economic and security implications.

Takeaways

• 🤖 The script introduces 'Digit', a bipedal humanoid robot capable of understanding human commands and making autonomous decisions.
• 🧠 Digit uses semantic intelligence and AI to interpret commands and perform tasks, highlighting the growing role of generative AI in robotics.
• 💰 There is significant investment from major tech companies like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft in humanoid robots, indicating strong industry interest.
• 🚀 Elon Musk sees humanoid robots, like Tesla's 'Optimus', as a transformative technology with the potential to surpass the impact of electric cars.
• 🔑 The script suggests that humanoid robots could address labor shortages and fill dangerous or undesirable jobs, as well as support an aging workforce.
• 📈 The market for humanoid robots is expected to grow substantially, with projections of reaching $38 billion by 2035, reflecting investor optimism.
• 🛠️ Companies like Agility Robotics are already testing robots in real-world applications, such as recycling in Amazon's fulfillment centers.
• 🌐 The development of humanoid robots is a global race, with China emerging as a significant competitor to the US in terms of production and innovation.
• 🛡️ Safety and cost are identified as major challenges for the mainstream adoption of humanoid robots, with regulations and 'kill switches' being discussed.
• 🤝 Partnerships with big tech are essential for access to the necessary resources and data to train AI models for humanoid robots effectively.
• 🔮 The future of humanoid robots includes the potential for an 'app store' for robotic tasks, allowing for customizable software solutions.

Q & A

What is the primary function of Digit, the humanoid robot?

Digit is designed to interpret commands from people using semantic intelligence and make decisions on how to act, such as picking up boxes and moving them to different locations.

What is the significance of semantic intelligence in humanoid robots?

Semantic intelligence allows humanoid robots to understand and interpret human language, enabling them to follow commands and make autonomous decisions on how to perform tasks.

Why are big tech companies investing in humanoid robots?

Big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft are investing in humanoid robots due to their potential to transform industries, solve labor shortages, and perform dangerous or undesirable tasks.

What role does Elon Musk envision for Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus?

Elon Musk sees the potential for Optimus to have a greater impact than Tesla's cars, predicting it could lead to a $25 trillion market cap and become a majority of Tesla's long-term value.

How can humanoid robots address the current labor crisis?

Humanoid robots can fill jobs that are too dangerous, undesirable, or difficult to staff, such as in manufacturing and warehousing, where there are significant labor shortages.

What advancements in AI have contributed to the progress of humanoid robots?

Generative AI and the use of real-world scenario-based data for training have allowed humanoid robots to learn and perform tasks more effectively, leading to significant advancements in their capabilities.

What is the concept of Teleoperation in training humanoid robots?

Teleoperation involves a human performing a task multiple times while being recorded. The collected data is then used to train AI models, which the robot can use to autonomously perform the task.

What is the potential market size for humanoid robots by 2035?

The market for humanoid robots is expected to grow to $38 billion by 2035, indicating significant investment and growth in the industry.

How are companies like Tesla and Agility Robotics deploying humanoid robots in their operations?

Tesla claims to have two Optimus humanoid robots in its factory, with plans to expand their use. Agility Robotics is testing Digit in Amazon's fulfillment centers for tasks like recycling totes.

What are the safety considerations for deploying humanoid robots in human environments?

Safety is a major concern, with regulations and 'kill switches' in place to prevent accidents. Companies are working on collaborative safety standards to ensure robots can work closely with humans without harm.

What are the current challenges for mainstream adoption of humanoid robots?

Cost and safety are the primary challenges for mainstream adoption. The high price of humanoid robots and ensuring their safe interaction with humans are significant barriers to overcome.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 The Emergence of Bipedal Humanoid Robots

This paragraph introduces Digit, a bipedal humanoid robot designed to interpret human commands and make decisions autonomously. The script discusses the potential of such robots to transform the world, with investments from tech giants like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft. Elon Musk's vision for Tesla's Optimus robot is highlighted, along with the broader implications for labor, including addressing labor shortages and replacing dangerous jobs. The role of AI, particularly generative AI, in enhancing these robots' capabilities is emphasized, as is the historical context and current surge in interest due to advancements in AI.

05:06

🚀 Market Growth and Early Deployment of Humanoid Robots

The second paragraph delves into the market growth of humanoid robots, projected to reach $38 billion by 2035, with significant investments pouring into startups. It discusses the early deployment of such robots in factories and warehouses, with Tesla claiming to have two Optimus robots in its factory and plans for commercial sale by 2025. The paragraph also covers the use of Digit by Amazon and the development of an 'app store' for robots, indicating a shift towards a broader application of humanoid robots in various industries, including automotive, retail, and healthcare.

10:10

🛠 Challenges and Future Prospects of Humanoid Robots

This section addresses the challenges facing the humanoid robot industry, including safety concerns, the high cost of production, and regulatory issues. It also touches on the potential for robots to take over jobs, but suggests that job evolution into managing robot fleets could mitigate this. The need for international standards and the role of the UN's AI for Good committee in policy recommendations are mentioned. The competitive landscape between the US and China in the humanoid robot industry is highlighted, with China's cost advantage and rapid development in the sector.

15:15

🌐 Geopolitical Implications and the 'New Industry' of Humanoid Robots

The final paragraph discusses the geopolitical implications of the humanoid robot industry, likening it to the space race and emphasizing the need for the US to maintain a competitive edge over China. It raises questions about regulation and safety, and the desire for an industry that can innovate quickly. The potential impact of humanoid robots is compared to that of the personal computer in the 1980s, suggesting a transformative effect on society and the economy, with a focus on reclaiming time for individuals.

Keywords

💡Bipedal humanoid robots

Bipedal humanoid robots are machines designed to walk and move like humans, typically having two legs and often resembling human form. They are central to the video's theme, illustrating the convergence of robotics and AI. The script mentions 'Digit' as an example of a bipedal humanoid robot, capable of interpreting commands and making decisions.

💡Semantic intelligence

Semantic intelligence refers to the ability of machines to understand and interpret the meaning behind human language. It is crucial for robots to interact with humans naturally. In the script, it is mentioned that robots use semantic intelligence to interpret commands and decide on actions, showcasing its importance in the development of AI-driven humanoids.

💡Generative AI

Generative AI is a subset of artificial intelligence that enables machines to generate new content, such as text, images, or actions, based on learned patterns. It is highlighted in the script as a key technology that has significantly advanced the capabilities of humanoid robots, allowing them to perform tasks autonomously based on real-world data.

💡Teleoperation

Teleoperation is a method of controlling robots remotely, often through the recording and playback of human movements. The script explains that teleoperation is used to train robots by recording human actions, which are then used to teach the AI models how to perform tasks, demonstrating a practical application of AI in robotics.

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence, or AI, is the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. The video emphasizes AI as the driving force behind the capabilities of modern humanoid robots, enabling them to learn, adapt, and perform complex tasks.

💡Investment

The script discusses the significant investment from big tech companies like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft into the development of humanoid robots. Investment is a key concept as it highlights the financial backing and belief in the potential of AI-driven robotics to revolutionize industries.

💡Labor crisis

The labor crisis mentioned in the script refers to a shortage of human workers in various industries, such as manufacturing and warehousing. Humanoid robots are posited as a potential solution to fill these gaps, performing tasks that are dangerous, undesirable, or due to an aging workforce.

💡Autonomy

Autonomy in the context of the video refers to the independence of robots to perform tasks without direct human intervention. As robots become 'cleverer' and more autonomous, their applications and impact on the workforce are expected to expand, which is a central theme in the discussion of the future of robotics.

💡Regulation

Regulation is discussed in the script in relation to ensuring the safe integration of humanoid robots into society and the workplace. It touches on the need for policy recommendations and safety standards to prevent accidents and manage the ethical and practical implications of AI-driven robots.

💡Cost

The cost of humanoid robots is a significant barrier to mainstream adoption, as mentioned in the script. The high expense of producing these complex machines is a challenge that the industry must overcome to realize the potential of AI-driven robots in various sectors.

💡Mass adoption

Mass adoption refers to the widespread acceptance and use of a technology by the general public. In the script, it is mentioned as a future goal for humanoid robots, suggesting that once the cost is reduced and safety is ensured, these machines could become as common as smartphones or EVs.

Highlights

Digit, a humanoid robot, uses semantic intelligence to interpret human commands and make autonomous decisions.

Bipedal humanoid robots are attracting billions in investment from tech giants like Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft.

Elon Musk sees humanoid robots as the future of Tesla, potentially surpassing the impact of their cars.

Humanoid robots could address labor shortages and fill dangerous or undesirable jobs.

Artificial intelligence has led to significant advancements in robotics capabilities in recent years.

Generative AI is key to expanding the tasks robots can perform, including in a humanoid form.

Teleoperation technology allows robots to learn tasks by mimicking human movements, trained with AI models.

Big tech companies provide essential resources and partnerships for AI and robotics development.

Tesla's Optimus robot is predicted by Elon Musk to have a transformative impact with high market demand.

Investors are pouring millions into humanoid robot startups, with a market growth projection to $38 billion by 2035.

Humanoid robots are being deployed in factories and warehouses, with Tesla already integrating them.

Agility Robotics' Digit is assisting Amazon in early stage testing for tasks like recycling totes.

Sanctuary AI's Phoenix robot, with a wheeled base for power and precision, is being tested for store tasks.

Optronics' Apollo robot is designed for logistics and manufacturing support, with a focus on retail next.

Wall Street analysts predict humanoid robots could be as essential as smartphones or EVs, aiding in various industries.

The potential for humanoid robots to fill labor shortages is significant, with an estimated 10 million open jobs in the US.

Safety is a primary concern for humanoid robots, with strict regulations and a need for collaborative safety standards.

Cost remains a significant barrier for mainstream adoption of humanoid robots, with prices expected to decrease over time.

China is a major competitor in the humanoid robot industry, with a large market and cost advantages.

The US sees the humanoid robot industry as a new space race, with implications for national competitiveness and security.

Regulation and policy development are crucial for the safe and ethical integration of humanoid robots into society.

The humanoid robot industry is in its early stages, with the potential for impacts even greater than the personal computer.

Transcripts

Hey, digit, take the box with the heaviest animal and move it to tower four.

This is digit, a robot who sort of looks like a person, hence the name Humanoid Robot.

Technically, these are called bipedal humanoid robots.

Using semantic intelligence, it's able to interpret commands from people and then make its own decisions

about how to act.

So the goal is for him to be able to interpret normal human language, to say, hey, I need you

to pick this box up, help me out in this instance, is that where you see this going?

Yeah.

And I think it will generally be probably less of a I need you to do this one thing for me and more of a

do this for me forever.

In the corner of the facility.

Robots like this one are catching the attention and billions of investment dollars from big tech companies

like Amazon, Google, Nvidia and Microsoft.

Elon Musk is betting the future of Tesla on these machines.

As you see Optimus develop, it's really going to transform the world, I think to a

degree even greater than the cars.

Some also argue robots like digit can solve the world's labor crisis, filling jobs that are too dangerous or

that people simply don't want.

They may even replace an aging workforce, as people around the world have fewer kids.

Today in manufacturing, we are short about 300,000 people, and it's something

very similar in warehousing and logistics.

So we're somewhere around 6 or 700,000 jobs we can't fill.

The idea of robots isn't exactly new.

Here I am, sir.

So why all of a sudden attention?

The big driver, artificial intelligence.

These bots have seen quantum leaps in what they're capable of in just the past few years, thanks to AI.

Generative AI is really a key unlock overall for what you can get a robot to do, let alone

a humanoid robot.

Robotics is where AI meets reality.

We are really at the cusp of solving one of the grand challenges of humanity.

It will change labor forever.

There is probably a need in the future once the humanoids get a bit more clever, a bit more perhaps

autonomy. But until that point, I think the market will be fairly limited to

PR spectacles.

It all sounds great, but will we ever trust robots working in our houses, schools and nursing homes?

Will they ever be safe enough?

And how lifelike is too lifelike?

And how should the US think about global adversaries building similar fleets of humanoids?

CNBC explores the rise of these AI driven humanoids.

And if they're really a cure all for our global workforce problems, or if this is another tech bubble.

This hardware has been around for decades.

Companies like Boston Dynamics, Honda, Sony and others have wowed the public with early versions of these

robots.

Why would we want humanoids?

The prevailing sort of answer has been the world is built to be occupied by

humans, so.

We want robots that are versatile, that can do a wide range of things.

Then having it adopt the humanoid form factor always made a lot of sense.

Recent leaps in artificial intelligence have resulted in leaps for robotics.

The data that they use to train these robots is based in real world scenarios.

Now, a robot can be trained the same way a human is.

We have this technology called Teleoperation.

The person does the thing 200 times, we record all that data, and then we use that data to train these

models. And the AI models are very similar to the GPT style generative AI models.

You feed in the 200 trajectories and the system learns how the task is being done,

and then the robot will do the task autonomously.

If I go into a new space, I'm now not looking at spending months trying to code that problem.

I can potentially just generate it straight out of gen AI and be able to have digit interact with new objects

and new environments without having to develop at all.

AI models require massive quantities of data to train off of, and this is no different.

If you show the robot enough things, it starts to be able to do things that it hasn't been shown before.

Big tech is very interested in the big potential this technology promises.

If you're going to do AI at the frontier, you need to be partnered with Microsoft or Nvidia or Google or one

of the big players. There's just no other way.

They have resources that nobody else has, even governments.

Nvidia's been a great partner up until this point.

We're using everything from their hardware to their simulation, and then recently have started working with

them on foundation models as well.

One of this industry's biggest proponents is Elon Musk.

He's made some bold predictions that Tesla's robot, Optimus could propel it to a $25 trillion market

cap, and that it will amount to a majority of Tesla's long term value, with demand as high as 10 to

20 billion units.

Tesla is arguably the world's biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots

on wheels. And with the full self-driving computer and all the neural nets, it kind of makes sense to put

that onto a humanoid form.

And it's intended to be friendly, of course, and navigate through a world built for humans and

eliminate dangerous, repetitive and boring tasks.

Musk isn't alone in believing humanoid robots could change the world.

Investors are pouring millions into startups, with the market expected to grow to $38 billion by

2035.

The funding that has gone into these, some of these companies has been absolutely huge.

And I think that's kind of the parallel with the AI funding.

This is the biggest market in the world.

I mean, effectively this has the potential to change the way we live and work pretty dramatically.

Humanoid robots are closer to being a real part of our workforce than you might think.

Some companies are already deploying them in factories and warehouses.

Tesla claims it has two Optimus humanoid robots in its factory.

During Tesla's 2024 first quarter earnings call, Musk said he believes Optimus will be performing tasks

in Tesla's factories by the end of the year, and that it could start selling the robot to outside customers

by the end of 2025.

At the company's 2024 investor day in June, Musk predicted it could have over a thousand or a few

thousand robots working at Tesla next year.

Musk saying that Optimus will be bigger than the cars.

So I presume that means that they are spending huge amounts of this.

I wouldn't underestimate them.

Digit, created by Oregon based Agility Robotics, is helping Amazon in early stage testing at its

Sumner, Washington, fulfillment center and innovation lab.

We've been working with them recycling totes.

The arms are capable of handling a wide variety of different payloads, up to about 33 ish

pounds.

Agility says it plans to keep expanding the scope of work that digit is capable of.

We envision an app store for robots out in the future where if you need Tote

recycling app, you can go into the App Store and download that onto your robot.

And according to the company, there is plenty of demand.

Agility is building a factory in Salem, Oregon to keep up with orders.

We call it robo fab.

Will be open online this summer, and in a few years, have a capacity of about 10,000 robots per

year.

And where will those go? For the most part.

To many, many customers, but largely initially in the logistics warehousing space.

The next big market we see is automotive, retail and then eventually into markets like healthcare.

Several other startups are developing similar humanoid robots.

Sanctuary AI launched in 2018, in Vancouver, Canada unveiled its latest robot last year.

Phoenix, a five foot seven robot capable of lifting up to 55 pounds.

It looks a bit different from other humanoid designs, trading its legs for wheels.

Robots with legs. The upper body, including the hands, have to be very weak and light.

So instead of doing that, we put our product on a wheeled base and because we made that trade off, we

can build very powerful, very precise, very fast motors in the upper body.

The company deployed early iterations of its robot with Canadian Tire, completing front and back of store

tasks such as picking and packing merchandise.

Robots were asked to do everything from greeting people when they come through the door to actually putting

things on trucks.

Sanctuary says it's close to releasing its eighth generation robot in the next few months, and has

partnered with automotive manufacturer Magna to help build its robots at scale.

Optronics started in 2016 as a spin out from the Human Centered Robotics Lab at the University of Texas at

Austin. It began with an initial project to help NASA build a generalized humanoid robot.

The company says it's now on its eighth version of a humanoid.

All of that has culminated in building the robot that we essentially always dreamed of building a

robot called Apollo, which is a mass manufacturable commercial humanoid robot.

With a max payload of 55 pounds and a swappable four hour battery.

Apollo is designed to help support logistics and manufacturing to start, with retail as its next

focus.

We've got to prove out sort of the simpler tasks, but my dream is for Apollo, hopefully to be ready

in time to help my parents, hopefully to help me as I get old.

The company says it has deployed Apollo in pilots with Mercedes-Benz, GXO and others.

We started with pretty simple tasks things like moving boxes or moving cases from one place to another.

What we're moving into is doing more dexterity and more end to end tasks, and then hope to be in full

commercial launch by the end of next year.

It's no wonder tech companies have taken notice.

Some Wall Street analysts predict these robots are the next must have device, not unlike a smartphones

or EVs, but they also say such robots would be vital for manufacturing and dangerous work.

But they would also help with elderly care and fill in labor shortages in factories.

There's already too few workers to fill all of the world's manufacturing jobs.

It's an estimated shortage of 500,000 people, and by 2030, Goldman Sachs thinks that will grow to a

shortage of 2 million workers.

Imagine I could give you a labor force that costs the price of electricity, you know, a few cents an hour

per worker. And they were equipped with the kinds of general intelligence that you might imagine comes like

in science fiction. There's going to be things that you think of that will dramatically improve your life

no matter who you are.

We've only automated 10% of automotive manufacturing.

If we can automate a much higher degree, it would dramatically change the economy.

We have the ability to add new tools.

You can imagine if you needed to put a rivet into a car or something, you could actually

have the screw produced in the hand.

But robots taking human jobs can be a contentious topic.

What would you tell those people who you know there are certain jobs that might be lost as a result of

this?

Actually, we've heard from some of those people, and what their jobs start to evolve into is the

manager of the robot fleet.

They can be deployed in coal mines, in fires, for rescue efforts, where it

might not be as safe for a human being.

There are just some jobs that people don't want.

Proponents say a humanoid can help fill those.

There's about 10 million open jobs in the United States alone.

We could build and maintain 10 million of the robots that we're talking about, without touching a single

job.

If you have to lift sort of 55 pounds, somewhere between 50 and 100 times an

hour, that's a serious workout.

So we're taking these dirty, dull and dangerous jobs first.

How far away are we from digit doing your laundry?

That's probably more along the lines of, you know, a decade or more.

Is there a kill switch?

For lack of a better term?

There is a kill switch.

It's the big red button over there.

The big red button over there.

These are 140 pounds.

They have a lot of torque in their hands and arms and legs.

And so you have to be very conscious of the situation when robots are interfacing with

humans.

The biggest sort of short term obstacle we have is safety.

The UN has sort of put together a committee that's called AI for good,

which is basically coming up with policy recommendations at a UN level for

how should countries think about AI and also think about robotics.

For Agility's deployment of digit, its robots operate away from human workers for safety reasons.

So right now digit is Non-collaborative and we're working to what's called collaborative safety, which is

being able to formally verify, according to international standards

that digit is safe to be in close proximity to a person.

We have very tight safety regulations today.

And then eventually OSHA is the workplace safety organization that actually has to approve any

deployment. So it's very regulated to make sure that we don't get bad accidents.

Another big roadblock: the cost.

Humanoid robots are expensive, complex pieces of machinery.

For them to go mainstream, that's going to have to change.

It's really expensive to even try to do this, and you have to have investors who are willing to take risks

because, you know, nobody's done this before.

Elon Musk came out with this idea that it should cost less than $20,000, and that would be a

level where mass adoption would be possible.

I think we'll have to wait quite a few years, probably a decade at least.

Agility says its robots can be purchased up front, with an additional software as a service fee, or a bundled

monthly fee for robots as a service.

As long as they have the robot, we help maintain it, take care of it, keep the software updated and they

just pay on a monthly basis.

What does one of these robots cost?

How should people think about it?

Is it like buying a car or a boat?

I'd say it's like buying an expensive car, but the costs are coming down very, very quickly.

While the US has seen activity in humanoid robots explode, China is giving the West a run for its money.

It already dominates the industry, surpassing Japan in 2013 as the world's largest installer of

industrial robots, and now accounts for more than half of the global total.

China, the market is absolutely huge.

For example, in mobile robots, this the biggest in the world.

The only other company in the West that has anything similar to the quantities that the companies have in

China is Amazon. But Chinese companies are catching up fast.

If you just count the number of humanoid robots that have come onto the scene over the last year, about half

of them are from Chinese companies.

Interestingly, you've seen companies like BYD also invest.

There's a broader effort to get the capital into this industry in China.

One of China's biggest competitive advantages is cost.

They need to source these parts almost custom made.

Being based in China, they're closer to the factories that can make these parts potentially at a lower cost.

Unitary in China.

They came out with this $16,000 humanoid, which is a very exciting development.

But what can the robot actually do?

That's a huge question.

I think an interesting space to watch will be in the components once there are more standards, and

potentially the factories that have been making some of these components for the humanoid startups in China,

they could also sell those parts overseas.

Competitiveness in this space is crucial for the US, which has been seeking to keep its edge over China as

geopolitical tensions rise.

Even though the US invented the very first robot, 100% of all major

industrial robots were produced outside of the US by foreign companies.

I think of the humanoid race as effectively the next space race, and it has major

implications for both national competitiveness and national security.

In terms of large economics, it is China versus the US.

We need to make sure that the big applications for this are in the US and in Europe, because if it's

not, then we're going to lose that arms race.

This is a real arms race and we better make sure we win it.

There are still very real roadblocks.

Cost and safety are the biggest near-term issues.

Finally, there's questions over how to regulate the space, similar to questions on how to regulate AI.

Even the robot's biggest advocates say they want to put up guardrails to make sure those eventually working

alongside humanoids aren't put in harm's way.

But they're also competitive, and they want this industry to innovate with an ability to move quickly

enough to keep up with rapid progress abroad.

This is really the beginning of a new industry.

Think of this like the personal computer in the early 80s.

It will have potentially bigger impacts than the personal computer.

These robots are going to give us all back time.