If Biden steps aside, Dems can win if they do this: Historian | Vargas Reports

Summary

In a debate on the 2024 election, historian Allan Lichtman, known for correctly predicting 9 out of the last 10 elections, argues that despite calls for President Biden to drop out, he should stay in the race. Lichtman suggests a strategic move where Biden resigns for the country's good, leading to Vice President Kamala Harris taking over, securing the party's unity and increasing their chances of winning against Trump. He emphasizes that only a few key factors could lead to a Democratic loss, and his system of predictions stands by the resilience of the party despite polls.

Takeaways

• 🔮 Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor, has accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections.
• 📢 Lichtman suggests that despite calls for Biden to drop out, he remains the best bet for Democrats in November.
• 🗣️ Lichtman proposes a plan where Biden should resign for the good of the country, which he believes would be popular.
• 🏢 If Biden resigns, Kamala Harris would become President, fulfilling the incumbency requirement.
• 🗳️ Harris would then release her delegates to secure a consensus nomination, avoiding a contested convention.
• 📊 Recent polls show that Biden is losing support in key swing states, which are crucial for winning the election.
• 💡 Lichtman argues that if Biden were to drop out, Harris, as part of the ticket, could be competitive against Trump.
• 📈 A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates Michelle Obama is the only Democrat who could beat Trump by double digits, though she has never held elected office.
• 🤔 Lichtman dismisses the reliance on polling averages, citing the 2016 election where many were confident of a Clinton win.
• 🔑 He emphasizes the 'keys' method, which considers structural factors rather than polls, and believes Democrats are in a good position to win.
• 🚫 Lichtman states that for Democrats to lose, many things would have to go wrong, including third-party interference, social unrest, and foreign policy issues.

Q & A

Who is Allan Lichtman, and what is his claim to fame in the context of the transcript?

Allan Lichtman is a historian and a distinguished professor of history from American University. He is known for having correctly predicted 9 out of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections.

What is the main suggestion Allan Lichtman has for the Democratic Party regarding Joe Biden's candidacy?

Allan Lichtman suggests that Joe Biden should resign the presidency for the good of the country, which he believes would be a popular move, and this would pave the way for Kamala Harris to become the consensus nominee.

What does Lichtman believe would be the outcome if Biden were to resign the presidency?

Lichtman believes that if Biden were to resign, Kamala Harris would become president, checking off the incumbency factor, and she would release her delegates to secure a consensus nomination.

What is Lichtman's view on the importance of polling averages in key swing states?

Lichtman acknowledges the importance of polling averages in swing states but emphasizes that he relies on a system that takes into account the structure of how elections work rather than just polling data.

How does Lichtman respond to the calls for Biden to drop out due to his declining support in the polls?

Lichtman dismisses the calls for Biden to drop out, stating that they come from operatives and pundits without a successful track record in predicting election outcomes.

What is Lichtman's opinion on the role of third-party candidates and social unrest in the election?

Lichtman suggests that there are only four other 'keys' that could cause a Democratic loss: a strong third-party candidate, social unrest, foreign policy successes, and foreign policy failures.

What historical precedent does Lichtman refer to when discussing the unpredictability of election outcomes?

Lichtman refers to the 2016 election, where he predicted Donald Trump's victory against the consensus of pundits and pollsters.

How does Lichtman's system for predicting election outcomes differ from traditional polling?

Lichtman's system focuses on the structure of elections and historical patterns rather than relying solely on current polling data.

What does Lichtman suggest is the role of foreign policy in the upcoming election?

Lichtman implies that foreign policy successes or failures could be a key factor in the election outcome, affecting the popularity and perceived competence of the incumbent party.

How does Lichtman view the potential impact of a scandal on the Democratic Party's chances in the election?

Lichtman believes that Kamala Harris is free of scandal, which puts the Democrats in a good position to win, as scandals can significantly damage a party's chances.

What is Lichtman's stance on the importance of incumbency in elections?

Lichtman considers incumbency a significant advantage, as it checks off a key factor in his predictive system, and he suggests that resigning the presidency could strategically leverage this factor.