The bull and bear cases for Tesla's position in the Magnificent 7
Summary
TLDR在这段访谈中,讨论了特斯拉股票的当前状况和未来前景。分析人士指出,特斯拉可能无法达到交付目标,但市场对此并不感到意外。尽管如此,由于对中国市场的乐观情绪,股价仍在上涨。讨论还涉及了特斯拉作为技术公司的定位,以及其在全自动驾驶和人工智能业务方面的长期增长潜力。此外,还讨论了特斯拉是否仍属于“神奇七”股票,以及其相对于其他公司的估值和预期增长率。
Takeaways
- 🚗 特斯拉可能无法达到交付目标,市场对此并不会感到意外。
- 📈 股价上涨主要受中国交付量乐观情绪的影响,但同时也可能受到德国供应链问题的影响。
- 📉 二手车价格同比下降30%,这几乎是特斯拉在美国降价幅度的两倍。
- 🐻 分析师认为特斯拉的基本面存在问题,但股价在过去一个月内仍实现了双位数的反弹。
- 🇨🇳 对中国市场的乐观情绪是股价上涨的主要驱动力。
- 🔮 特斯拉被视为技术公司而非传统汽车制造商,其长期增长潜力被看重。
- 🚖 特斯拉的Robotaxi和全自动驾驶(FSD)业务是公司长期增长的关键。
- 🎯 特斯拉的长期目标股价被设定为190美元,这一估值考虑了公司的其他计划。
- 🤖 特斯拉被认为应该被排除在“神奇七”之外,因为它的预期过于乐观。
- 📊 特斯拉的市盈率为74倍,远高于“神奇七”其他公司的34倍。
- 📈 尽管特斯拉的三年每股收益(EPS)增长预期为12%,低于“神奇七”其他公司的26%,但它仍被视为成长股。
Q & A
特斯拉是否可能会错过交付目标?
-根据访谈内容,分析师认为特斯拉可能无法达到交付目标并不会令人感到意外,因为股票已经在对中国交付的乐观情绪中上涨。
特斯拉股价上涨的原因是什么?
-股价上涨主要是因为对中国交付的乐观情绪,以及对德国没有出现重大问题和供应链问题的期望。
为什么特斯拉的股价会因为新闻而波动?
-当新闻报道积极时,特斯拉的股价会上涨;当新闻报道负面时,股价则会下跌,这反映了市场对特斯拉消息的敏感性。
特斯拉是否应该被排除在'MAG SEVEN'之外?
-有观点认为,尽管特斯拉改变了世界并迫使其他汽车工业跟随,但根据其当前的估值和预期收益,它可能不应该属于'MAG SEVEN'。
特斯拉的估值与其他'MAG SEVEN'公司相比如何?
-特斯拉的估值是预期收益的74倍,而其他'MAG SEVEN'公司的估值是34倍。
特斯拉的长期增长前景如何?
-尽管短期内面临一些逆风,但特斯拉被看作是一个技术型企业,具有显著的长期增长潜力,特别是在全自动驾驶和AI技术方面。
特斯拉的Model 2预计何时生产?
-根据访谈,Model 2预计将在接下来的12到18个月内开始生产,这将是公司的另一个高销量车型。
特斯拉的全自动驾驶(FSD)业务对公司有何影响?
-全自动驾驶(FSD)是特斯拉长期增长故事的一部分,预计将在获得显著的采用率后,为公司带来显著的增长。
特斯拉的机器人出租车业务有何预期?
-机器人出租车业务被视为特斯拉增长潜力的一部分,预计将在全自动驾驶技术成熟后推动公司增长。
分析师对特斯拉的目标股价有何看法?
-根据访谈,分析师认为特斯拉的股票价值为190美元,这一估值考虑了公司的其他举措和长期采用率。
特斯拉的三年每股收益(EPS)增长预期与其他'MAG SEVEN'公司相比如何?
-特斯拉的三年EPS增长预期为12%,而其他'MAG SEVEN'公司的增长预期为26%。
Outlines
🚗 特斯拉交付预期与股价波动
在这段对话中,讨论了特斯拉可能无法达到交付预期的问题,以及这是否会对股价造成影响。提到了特斯拉股价因中国市场的积极消息而上涨,但同时也存在供应链问题和潜在的负面影响。此外,还提到了二手车价格下跌对特斯拉价格策略的影响。讨论者认为,特斯拉不仅仅是一家汽车公司,而是一家技术公司,其长期增长潜力和人工智能技术的应用是其价值所在。
🛠️ 特斯拉的长期增长与市场地位
第二段对话集中在特斯拉的长期增长前景和其在市场中的地位。讨论者指出,尽管特斯拉面临一些挑战,如Model 2的生产计划和全自动驾驶(FSD)技术的推广,但他们对特斯拉的未来增长持乐观态度。他们预计特斯拉的增长速度将达到27%至35%,并认为特斯拉仍然是一个增长型股票。此外,还提到了特斯拉是否应该被排除在所谓的'Magnificent Seven'(杰出七家公司)之外的讨论,以及其与其他公司相比的市盈率和预期增长率。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡特斯拉
💡交付数量
💡股价波动
💡技术业务
💡全自动驾驶(FSD)
💡机器人出租车
💡市场预期
💡股票估值
💡MAG SEVEN
💡增长速率
💡Model 2
Highlights
特斯拉可能无法达到交付目标,市场对此不会感到惊讶。
股价因对中国交付的乐观情绪而上涨。
特斯拉股价受德国供应链问题和中国火灾事件的影响。
二手车价格同比下降30%,是特斯拉在美国降价幅度的两倍。
特斯拉股价的上涨与基本面无关,而是受中国新闻的影响。
特斯拉不仅仅是汽车公司,而是一个技术公司。
特斯拉的长期增长依赖于全自动驾驶和人工智能业务。
很多人期待8月份的Robotaxi活动。
特斯拉是否仍属于“神奇七”公司存在争议。
特斯拉的估值是预期收益的74倍,远高于其他“神奇七”公司的34倍。
特斯拉的三年每股收益增长预期为12%,低于“神奇七”其他公司的26%。
特斯拉Model 2预计在未来12到18个月内开始生产,将为公司带来高销量。
特斯拉的长期增长故事预计在27%到35%之间,随着FSD和Robotaxi的普及。
尽管存在短期逆风,特斯拉仍被视为增长股。
特斯拉改变了世界,迫使其他汽车行业跟随其步伐。
特斯拉的估值与其长期愿景和创新能力有关。
特斯拉需要被从“神奇七”中剔除吗?这是一个有争议的问题。
Transcripts
FROM STIFEL.
GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE.
>> GOOD MORNING.
>> YOU ARE RIGHT HERE IN FRONT
OF ME.
YOU COME AS THE SOBERING VOICE
ON THE STOCK.
YOU ARE LAUGHING.
WE WILL GET INTO WHETHER OR NOT
IT BELONGS IN THE MAG SEVEN.
WHAT IS THE THOUGHT THAT TESLA
MAY MISS THE DELIVERY NUMBERS?
>> I DON'T THINK A MISS IS GOING
TO BE TAKEN AS A SURPRISE.
YOU KNOW, THE STOCK HAS BEEN
MOVING HIGHER ON OPTIMISM AROUND
THE CHINA DELIVERS.
THE FACT AS YOU MENTIONED
SEVERAL OF THE KEY PLAYERS IN
CHINA HAVE BEATEN AND PEOPLE ARE
HOPE WE DON'T HAVE ARSON ISSUES
IN GERMANY AND SUPPLY CHAIN
ISSUES THIS QUARTER TO LAW THEM
TO BE STRONGER.
I LOOK AT USED CAR PRICING DOWN
30% YEAR OVER YEAR.
THAT IS ROUGHLY THE DOUBLE OF
THE PRICE CUTS IN AMERICA FOR
TESLA.
>> ARE YYOU ARE HITTING THE
FUNDAMENTALS OF THE STOCK.
IS THERE SOME REASON YOU CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEAR IN THE
STOCK TO RALLY DOUBLE DIGITS
OVER THE LAST SMONTH?
>> IT'S OPTIMISM ON CHINA.
WHEN THE HEADLINE NEWS IS COMING
THROUGH POSITIVE, STOCK GOES UP.
WHEN THE HEADLINE NEWS IS
NEG
NEGATIVE, THE STOCK IS GOING
DOWN.
>> STEVEN, YOU BELIEVE THE
WHISPER NUMBER FOR TESLA WILL
FALL SHORT OF WHAT THE ESTIMATES
ARE EXPECTING.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE RECENT
RALLY?
WHAT DO INVESTORS SEE IN THE
STOCK OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO?
>> I THINK THERE ARE A FEW
THINGS.
FIRST OF ALL, IF YOU LOOK AT
TESLA, IT IS AN AUTOMOTIVE
COMPANY, YOU WILL NOT BUY THE
STOCK.
YOU ARE BUYING INTO A TECHNOLOGY
BUSINESS.
CRAIG IS RIGHT OF WHAT PEOPLE
ARE LOOKING AT WITH THE
SHORT-TERM NUMBERS.
PEOPLE ARE THINKING OF TESLA AS
A LARGER SCALE WITH THE FULL
SELF-DRIVING SIDE AND THE A.I.
BUSINESS IS FUELING THE COMPANY
BOTH ON FDS, FULL SELF-DRIVING,
AND THE LONGER TERM ROBOTAXI
SIDE.
>> A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE POINTING
TO THE ROBOTAXI EVENT IN AUGUST.
AHEAD OF THAT, AS WE LOOK AT
TESLA AND THE FUNDAMENTALS OF
THE COMPANY AND DELIVERIES AND
CRAIG WAS MENTIONING THE PRICING
ISSUES THAT THE COMPANY IS
HAVING, DOES TESLA BELONG IN THE
MAGNIFICENT SEVEN?
DO YOU BELIEVE IT STILL BELONGS
IN THE MAG SEVEN?
>> I GO BACK TO THE FACT THIS
TRULY IS A TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS.
THEY ARE SET UP FOR SIGNIFICANT
LONG-TERM GROWTH.
A PART OF THAT IS CLEARLY THE
PACE AND TIMING OF THE EV
ADOPTION AND HOW IT IMPACTS THE
CORE BUSINESS.
A LARGER PART OF THE LONG TERM
IS HOW WE THINK ABOUT THE
APPLICATION OF A.I. TECHNOLOGY
AND THE ABILITY TO FUEL THE FULL
SELF-DRIVING PIECE.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TARGET
PRICE, WE THINK THE STOCK IS
WORTH $190.
ON THE UPSIDE, IT COMES FROM THE
OTHER INITIATIVES.
I THINK WE'RE BEING CONSERVATIVE
ON THE LONG-TERM ADOPTION RATES
ON THE INITIATIVES.
>> CRAIG, I'M GOING TO COME OVER
TO YOU.
I'M NOT GOING TO BE SURPRISED BY
YOUR ANSWER.
DO YOU THINK TESLA NEEDS TO BE
KICKED OUT OF THE MAG SEVEN?
>> TESLA IS THE RETAIL DARLING.
WHY?
BECAUSE THEY CHANGED THE WORLD.
THEY FORCED THE REST OF THE AUTO
INDUSTRY TO FOLLOW THEM.
THEY DESERVE SPECIAL TREATMENT.
DOES THAT MEAN THEY BELONG IN
THE MAG SEVEN FOR NOT?
I DON'T THINK SO.
THE STOCK IS TRADING ON
EXPECTATIONS FOR THINGS LIKE
HU
HU
HUMANOID ROBOTS BY THE END OF
2025.
THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
THE FSD, FULL SELF DRIVING, NO,
NO, NO.
THE ENERGY TAX ON THE DRIVE
TRAIN IS MORE THAN THE DRIVE
FROM A TO B.
>> TESLA'S VALUATION IS 74 TIMES
THE FORWARD EARNINGS.
THE REST OF THE MAG SEVEN IS 34
TIMES.
STEPHEN, ANOTHER POINT IN THIS
NOTE IS THE OUTLOOK FOR
THREE-YEAR EPS GROWTH FOR TESLA
IS 12%.
THE REST OF THE MAG SEVEN IS
26%.
HOW CAN YOU BE IN THE HIGH
FLYING GROUP IF YOU HAVE A LOWER
GROWTH RATE?
IS TESLA STILL A GROWTH STOCK?
>> A, YES, IT IS A GROWTH STOCK.
WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE PACE OF
GROWTH THAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE
NEAR TERM, WE COVERED THIS IN
THE STOCK TEN DAYS AGO.
CLE
CLEARLY, THE HEADWINDS ARE
EFFECTING THE COMPANY.
WHEN WE LOOK AT THE MODEL 2, IT
SHOULD START TO BE PRODUCED IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 MONTHS, THAT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER HIGH-VOLUME
VEHICLE FOR THE COMPANY.
THEN YOU LAYER IN THE LONG TERM.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE GROWTH
STORY FOR TESLA, WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT 27 TO 35 WHEN YOU START TO
GET SIGNIFICANT ADOPTION RATES
OF THINGS LIKE FSD AND
ROBOTAXIS.
I AGREE WITH CRAIG WITH THE
REPORTS.
YOU HAVE TO HAVE A VISION OF
TESLA FOR THE LONG TERM TO BUY
TH
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